National Strategy for Economic Transformation: second annual progress report

Evaluation of the Strategy

The programme has established regular monitoring of our progress against delivery of NSET and tracking of success measures which are outlined in the following chapter. In addition to this, we also undertake a range of bespoke evaluation activity to assess the impact of substantial activities within NSET.

In the last year we have published evaluations on export and inward investment support, along with evaluations of our employability programmes Fair Start Scotland and No One Left Behind.

The results from these evaluations are helping to inform whether our actions are making a difference but it is important to recognise that NSET is a 10 year strategy and therefore the evaluation work needs to be phased to reflect delivery. For a number of initiatives, such as Tech Scalers for example, it is too soon to assess their impact although work is underway to implement an evaluation plan. And for some areas the activity evaluated pre-dates NSET but is nevertheless helping to improve delivery to enhance impact.

The evaluation of export support found significant impacts with export sales growing by over £1.6bn over the evaluation period (2018-19 – 2020-21) and a further estimated £2.7bn in additional export sales expected over the subsequent 3 years. Econometric analysis using a matched comparison group of unassisted firms showed a 140% increase in export sales as a result of support. The evaluation identified wider business benefits such as product and process development and job creation. It found that improvements could be made by providing more support to businesses that are exporting to high growth markets, and by helping develop export marketing capabilities.

The inward investment support evaluation found that the landscape of UK based/abroad-owned businesses in Scotland is more diverse at the start of the 2020s than in any previous time periods. Support helped create an estimated 5,297 jobs and safeguarded a further 5,863 jobs over the evaluation period (2018-19 – 20/21). Every £1 of planned public financial assistance was matched by a £4.88 contribution from inward investors. Importantly, support facilitated spillovers to the wider Scottish economy, such as knowledge/expertise transfers. These led to a variety of impacts such as new or improved business processes, improved product quality, and additional R&D.

There has been ongoing evaluation activity of Fair Start Scotland since the service began. The latest evaluation findings were published in November 2023 and showed the service continued to deliver positive results with high levels of satisfaction reported among participants in relation to their experiences on the service. Participants who were in work at the time of survey indicated high satisfaction with their job and agreed their job offered flexibility to manage family and household responsibilities. Research participants identified improved skills and job search abilities, increased confidence and increased motivation in job search as impacts associated with taking part in Fair Start Scotland. Fair Start Scotland closed to new entrants from 1 April 2024. The final phase of evaluation activity is currently being developed.

An implementation evaluation of No One Left Behind has been conducted and the findings published in August 2023. The evaluation found that No One Left Behind had been generally well-received by local stakeholders and that services being delivered aligned with the principles of employability support as articulated in the Customer Charter and Service Standards. No One Left Behind was seen by stakeholders to have made some positive difference to service delivery in their area, enabling more people to be supported and made employability services easier for people to navigate. The majority of service uses reported high levels of satisfaction due to the holistic, tailored and person-centred nature of the report they received. Future evaluation plans are currently being developed.

The Fair Work Evidence Plan was published in January 2024, with delivery anticipated to stretch over several years. The evidence plan articulates planned activity around 3 key areas: monitoring the progress Scotland is making towards becoming a leading fair work nation; monitoring and evaluating the delivery of actions set out within the Fair Work Action Plan; and developing and enhancing the evidence around Fair Work in Scotland to inform and support future policy development in this area. Work is underway to further develop and embed the approach to monitoring and evaluating the impact of the Fair Work Action Plan, and two projects to develop the evidence base are due to begin in early summer. Progress on delivering the Fair Work Evidence Plan will be reported to the Fair Work Oversight Group.

Following on from the evaluation of the £28.75m Scottish 4G Infill Programme, we have recently commissioned an evaluation into the over £600m R100 programme. Informed by the best practice set out in Scottish Government's Digital Appraisal Manual for Scotland (DAMS), the evaluation of R100 will involve engaging with affected households and business across Scotland via surveys and focus groups to measure a wide range of impacts, in line with established DAMS criteria: environment & climate change, resilience, economy & wellbeing, integration & future proofing, and accessibility & inclusion. Further evaluations are planned including those set out in the Fair Work Evidence Plan published in January 2024.