Negative Emissions Technologies (NETS): Feasibility Study
This study estimates the maximum Negative Emissions Technologies (NETs) potential achievable in Scotland, 2030 - 2050.
Footnotes
i. BECCS applications sequester biogenic carbon. There are a variety of BECCS applications.
ii. DAC applications remove and sequester CO2 directly from the atmosphere.
iii. Biochar applications convert biological materials into charcoal without combustion.
iv. Biogenic carbon is stored in biological materials such as plants or soil. This carbon has already been removed from the atmosphere through biological processes.
1. Biogenic carbon refers to carbon originating from plants and trees while anthropogenic carbon results mainly from fossil fuels.
2. The LCOC is determined based on the total technology costs per tonne of CO2 captured and permanently stored. The costs include CO2 capture, transport and storage costs and consist of the sum of (i) the annualised capital costs, (ii) the operating costs and (iii) the loss of revenue due to the addition of CO2 capture. The operating costs consist of both fixed and variable costs (for example, additional electricity and heat consumption). Further details of the LCOC calculation are given in Section 4 and the Technical Annexes.
4. UK Government Biomass Strategy: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/biomass-strategy
5. As stated by the CCC’s 6th Carbon Budget and the Scottish Government’s CCPu paper. These are discussed in depth and referenced to later in the report (see section 1.2).
6. Vivid economics (2019), ‘Greenhouse Gas Removal (GGR) policy options – Final Report’: Greenhouse gas removal policy options - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)
7. The Climate Change Committee (2020), ‘The Sixth Carbon Budget – The UK’s path to Net Zero’: Sixth Carbon Budget - Climate Change Committee (theccc.org.uk)
8. The Royal Society (2018), ‘Greenhouse gas removal’: https://royalsociety.org/-/media/policy/projects/greenhouse-gas-removal/royal-society-greenhouse-gas-removal-report-2018.pdf
9. The Royal Society (2018), ‘Negative emissions technologies and carbon capture and storage to achieve the Paris Agreement commitments’: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5897820/
*Note that in 2021 the UK Government ran a consultation for introducing a Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) mandate in order to reduce emissions in the aviation sector. The consultation aims to blend 10% SAF with fossil fuels by 2030 and up to 75% by 2050. Please see here: Mandating the use of sustainable aviation fuels in the UK - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)
10. National Infrastructure Commission (2021), ‘Engineered greenhouse gas removals’: Engineered greenhouse gas removals - NIC
11. Haszeldine et al (2019), ‘Greenhouse Gas Removal Technologies – approaches and implementation pathways in Scotland’: Greenhouse Gas Removal Technologies – approaches and implementation pathways in Scotland
12. Element Energy, ‘Review of international delivery of negative emission technologies’: Review of international delivery of negative emission technologies (climatexchange.org.uk)
13. IEAGHG, ‘Biomass with carbon capture and storage (BECCS/Bio-CCS)’: Microsoft PowerPoint - 2017-03-10 Bioenergy lecture 2 [Read-Only] (ieaghg.org)
14. The CCPu (2018), ‘Update to the Climate Change Plan 2018 - 2032: Securing a Green Recovery on a Path to Net Zero’: Supporting documents - Securing a green recovery on a path to Net Zero: climate change plan 2018–2032 - update - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
15. Dennis Gramer (2017), ‘Taking Stock of UK CO2 Storage’: Taking Stock of UK CO2 Storage | The ETI
16. The CabiNETs Secretary for Net Zero, Energy and Transport (2022), ‘Climate Change Plan: monitoring reports 2022’: Climate Change Plan: monitoring reports 2022 - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
17. BEIS (2021), ‘October 2021 update: Track-1 clusters confirmed’: October 2021 update: Track-1 clusters confirmed - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)
18. Scottish Government (2022), ‘£5 million to develop carbon dioxide utilisation technology’: £5 million to develop carbon dioxide utilisation technology - gov.scot (www.gov.scot)
19. Ricardo, Comparing Scottish bioenergy supply and demand in the context of Net-Zero targets: Comparing Scottish bioenergy supply and demand in the context of Net-Zero targets (climatexchange.org.uk)
20. Element Energy and E4Tech (2022), Review of International Delivery of Negative Emission Technologies climatexchange.org.uk/media/5132/cxc-review-of-international-delivery-of-negative-emission-technologies-february-2022.pdf
21. The Climate Change Committee (2020), ‘Policies for the Sixth Carbon Budget and Net Zero’: Sixth Carbon Budget - Climate Change Committee (theccc.org.uk)
22. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/spring-budget-2023/spring-budget-2023-html
23. The Climate Change Committee (2018), ‘Biomass in a low-carbon economy’, https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/biomass-in-a-low-carbon-economy/
24. BEIS (2021), Direct Air Capture and Greenhouse Gas Removal Programme – Phase 2: Competition Guidance Notes, Annex 3
25. Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage, Technology deep dive, IEA, 2022
26. Perceptions of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage in different policy scenarios, Perceptions of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage in different policy scenarios | Nature Communications
27. Greenhouse gas removal methods and their potential UK deployment, Element Energy, Accessed at: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1026988/ggr-methods-potential-deployment.pdf
28. Sites producing biogas before the Green Gas Support Scheme came into effect in November 2021 are not eligible for the scheme.
29. Ricardo for CXC (2022), ‘Comparing Scottish bioenergy supply and demand in the context of Net-Zero targets’: Comparing Scottish bioenergy supply and demand in the context of Net-Zero targets (climatexchange.org.uk)
30. The higher the capacity of the combustion system, the greater the ability that combustion system will typically have in using higher moisture content/less valuable bioresources. A biomass power station can be expected to combust fuels of up to 55-60%, whereas a smaller capacity system would typically be 30-40% moisture content.
32. National Grid’s Future Energy Scenarios: https://www.nationalgrideso.com/future-energy/future-energy-scenarios
33. Scottish Government 2030 renewable energy target: https://www.gov.scot/policies/renewable-and-low-carbon-energy/
34. IEA, Energy Technology Perspectives 2020: Energy Technology Perspectives 2020 – Analysis - IEA
35. NNFCC, ‘Anaerobic Digestion Deployment in the UK (2021)’: Anaerobic Digestion deployment in the UK (nnfcc.co.uk)
36. DESNZ, ‘Renewable Energy Planning Database: quarterly extract’: Renewable Energy Planning Database: quarterly extract - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)
37. BEIS, ‘Heat Networks Planning Database’: Heat Networks Planning Database - data.gov.uk
38. SEPA, ‘Scottish Pollutant Release Inventory’: SPRI | Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA)
39. Whisky Invest Direct, ‘Malt whisky distilleries in Scotland’: Malt whisky distilleries in Scotland | WhiskyInvestDirect
40. Whisky Invest Direct, ‘Grain whisky distilleries in Scotland’: Grain whisky distilleries in Scotland | WhiskyInvestDirect
41. Coal can achieve higher (>40%) and gas CCGT can be >50%. Gross efficiency measures the overall efficiency of a heat-generating plant, accounting for the recovery of all heat in the fuel, including latent heat typically lost during combustion (i.e., moisture in the flue gas). In contrast, net efficiency focuses solely on the heat efficiency without recovering latent heat, resulting in a lower value compared to gross efficiency.
42. Ardolino and Arena, ‘Biowaste-to-Biomethane: An LCA study on biogas and syngas roads’ (2019): Biowaste-to-Biomethane: An LCA study on biogas and syngas roads - ScienceDirect
43. DESNZ and BEIS, ‘Greenhouse gas reporting: conversion factors 2022’: Greenhouse gas reporting: conversion factors 2022 - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)
44. CarbonBrief, ‘Q&A: Why cement emissions matter for climate change’: Q&A: Why cement emissions matter for climate change - Carbon Brief
45. Tarmac, ‘Tarmac boosts cement plant sustainability’: Tarmac boosts cement plant sustainability | Dunbar Quarry
46. IEA Bioenergy, ‘Municipal Solid Waste and its Role in Sustainability’: 40_IEAPositionPaperMSW.pdf (ieabioenergy.com)
47. Scottish Carbon Capture & Storage (SCCS), ‘Negative Emission Technology in Scotland: carbon capture and storage for biogenic CO2 emissions’
48. IEAGHG, ‘CCS on Waste to Energy’: New IEAGHG report: 2020-06 CCS on Waste to Energy - BLOG
49. Carbon capture potential relates to the maximum quantity of carbon that can be captured from a particular site.
50. Percentage of capture potential (sector specific) is the measure of a site's ability to capture carbon compared to the total CO2 that can be potentially captured within its sector.
51. Percentage of capture potential (total) is the measure of a site's ability to capture carbon compared to the total CO2 that can be captured by all sites. When referring to all sites, this is dependent on whether the table is considering existing or future sites.
52. The sixth-tenths rule is an estimate of economies of scale stating that if the capital cost for a given sized piece of equipment is known, changing the size will change the capital cost by the 0.6 power of the capacity ratio: https://msuweb.montclair.edu/~lebelp/MooreEcsScaleQJE1959.pdf
53. AECOM, ‘Next Generation Carbon Capture Technology’: Next generation carbon capture technology: technoeconomic analysis work package 6 (publishing.service.gov.uk)
54. Ofgem, ‘Wholesale market indicators’: Wholesale market indicators | Ofgem
55. The World Bank, ‘GDP deflator (base year varies by country)’: GDP deflator (base year varies by country) | Data (worldbank.org)
56. OECD, ‘Exchange rates’: Conversion rates - Exchange rates - OECD Data
57. Lars-Julian Vernersson, ‘Bio-LNG and CO2 liquefaction investment for a biomethane plant with an output of 350 Nm3/h’: FULLTEXT01.pdf (diva-portal.org)
58. Mattia De Rose, ‘Economic assessment of producing and selling biomethane into a regional market’: Economic assessment of producing and selling biomethane into a regional market (sagepub.com)
59. BEIS, ‘Assessing the Cost Reduction Potential and Competitiveness of Novel (Next Generation) UK Carbon Capture Technology’: Benchmarking State-of-the-art and Next Generation Technologies (publishing.service.gov.uk)
60. National Energy Technology Laboratory, ‘Cost of Capturing CO2 from Industrial Sources’: Energy Analysis | netl.doe.gov
61. Catapult Energy Systems, ‘Energy from Waste Plants with Carbon Capture’: 20200513-Energy-from-Waste-Plants-with-Carbon-Capture-Final.pdf (esc-production-2021.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com)
62. Analysis the potential of bioenergy with carbon capture in the UK to 2050, Ricardo, 2020
63. UK Grid Reference Finder, ‘Batch Convert Tool’: Batch Convert Tool (gridreferencefinder.com)
64. Power Generation, Frontiers Economics: https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fclim.2021.647276/full
65. Independent review of the role of incineration in the waste hierarchy in Scotland: https://www.gov.scot/publications/stop-sort-burn-bury-independent-review-role-incineration-waste-hierarchy-scotland/documents/
66. National Planning Framework 4: https://www.gov.scot/publications/national-planning-framework-4/
67. SPICe (2022), ‘Incineration and Energy from Waste’: Incineration and Energy from Waste | Scottish Parliament
68. Scottish Government’s Hydrogen Action Plan: https://www.gov.scot/publications/hydrogen-action-plan/
69. Note that “fuel switching” for fermentation sites has been allocated as “not-applicable” – this is because the emissions that are captured from these sites are related to the process, and not any fuel combustion. These sites could well switch to a biogenic fuel source, but that does not impact the emissions we have assumed as capturable under our pathways.
70. Drax power station combustion mix: https://www.drax.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Drax_AR2020.pdf
71. Energy security bill: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/energy-security-bill-factsheets/energy-security-bill-factsheet-carbon-dioxide-transport-and-storage-regulatory-investment-model
Contact
Email: NETs@gov.scot
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