North-east Lewis Marine Protected Area: business and regulatory impact assessment

Consultation

Within Government

Consultation has been undertaken with policy colleagues within Marine Scotland, including aquaculture, nature conservation, marine renewables, fisheries and fresh water fisheries.

Public Consultation

A stakeholder workshop took place during the development of the underpinning Sustainability Appraisal.

A public consultation ran from 07 June 2019 to 30 August 2019 and included 14 local information events. Consultation responses and feedback from events have been used to finalise the proposals. No changes have been made to the North-east Lewis proposal as a result of responses received.

Options

Option 1 - Do nothing

Option 1 is the 'Do nothing' option; this is the baseline scenario. Under this option, there is no designation at the North-east Lewis pMPA.

Option 2: Designate site as a Nature Conservation Marine Protected Area

Option 2 involves the formal designation of North-east Lewis. Designation would provide recognition and protection to the natural features of the site while also contributing to the national and international MPA networks.

Sectors and groups affected

The following activities have been identified as present (or possibly present in the future) within the proposed North-east Lewis MPA site and potentially interact with one or more of the features:

• Finfish Aquaculture
• Shellfish Aquaculture
• Coastal Protection
• Commercial Fisheries
• Ports and Harbours
• Power Interconnectors
• Telecommunication Cables

Affected sectors may be impacted to a greater or lesser degree by designation depending on which scenario is pursued and which management option is preferred. While the above sectors are all potentially operational within the site, not all will necessarily be impacted by designation and management measures.

Benefits

Option 1: Do nothing

No additional benefits are expected to arise from this policy option.

Option 2: Designate site as a Marine Protected Area

Designation will help to conserve the range of biodiversity in Scottish waters. It will complement other types of designation and provide an essential contribution to establishing an ecologically coherent network of MPAs. This would also safeguard the ecosystem services and benefits provided by the marine environment

Appropriate management will reduce the risk that the extent, population, structure, natural environmental quality and processes of features protected will decrease or degrade over time.

Contribution to an Ecologically Coherent MPA network

Scotland's seas support a huge diversity of marine life and habitats, with around 6,500 species of plants and animals, with plenty more to be found in the undiscovered depths of the north and west of Scotland. Our seas account for 61% of UK waters and remain at the forefront of our food and energy needs, through fishing, aquaculture, oil and gas, and new industries such as renewables, as well as recreation activities and ecotourism. It is likely that an MPA network will demonstrate beneficial effects greater than the sum of the benefits from the individual areas.

MPA designation will help to conserve the range of biodiversity in North-east Lewis and for Scotland as a whole, and will contribute to establishing an ecologically coherent network of marine protected areas.

Ecosystem services benefits

Ecosystems are very complex, and it is thought that the more complex an ecosystem is the more resilient it is to change. Therefore, if it is damaged or if a species or habitat is removed from that ecosystem, the chances of survival for those services reduce as the ecosystem becomes weaker. However, by conserving or allowing the species and habitats that make up that ecosystem to recover, we can be more confident of the continuation of the long-term benefits the marine environment provides.

Non-use value of the natural environment is the benefit people get simply from being aware of a diverse and sustainable marine environment even if they do not themselves 'use it'. We take for granted many of the things we read about or watch, such as bright colourful fish, reefs and strange shaped deep sea curiosities, to lose them would be a loss to future generations that will not be able to experience them. Due to the scientific uncertainty involved it is challenging to put a true value on this, but the high quality experience and increasing knowledge of Scotland's seas can be better preserved through measures such as MPAs. It is expected that non-use value will be attained as a result of designation both from the knowledge that the features are receiving adequate protection along with the wider conservation objectives that designation supports.

In the case of North-east Lewis, it is estimated that effective management of protected features may provide wider benefits over and above these non-use values society places on a healthy and productive marine environment.

Annex A summarises the ecosystem benefits that can be derived from designation of North-east Lewis.

Summary of Benefits

While it may not be possible with current levels of research to monetise benefits with a satisfactory degree of rigour, it is clear that many of the benefits relate to aspects of our lives that we take for granted and for which it is good practice and common sense to maintain through protection measures. These benefits include use values, such as recreational use of the marine environment, as well as non-use values, such as the value that people place on simply knowing that something exists, even if they will never see it or use it.

Kenter et al. examined the value of creating a network of marine protected areas in the UK. From the study it is estimated that, in 2019 prices, the total economic valuation of the North-east Lewis site designation is £5.29 million, rising to £6.04 million when designation is accompanied by management measures^[1].

Treating marine protected areas as a collection of individual and separate features providing separate ecosystem services potentially ignores any network effects that could occur from a set of MPAs. A number of adjacent marine reserves may demonstrate network effects, i.e. the benefit from the networks may be greater (or less) than the sum of the benefits from the individual MPAs. Kenter et al. estimated total value of non-use benefits of designating all four sites as £28 million in 2019 prices.

Costs

Option 1: Do nothing

This option is not predicted to create any additional costs to the sectors and groups outlined above. However, it should be noted that the societal cost of not designating could be both large and irreversible relative to the current condition of the marine environment. The absence of management measures to conserve the identified features may produce future economic and social costs^[2] in terms of increased marine habitat and biodiversity degradation. The option to not designate holds the potential to undermine the overall ecological coherence of the Scottish MPA Network.

Option 2: Designate site as a Marine Protected Area

Costs have been evaluated based on the implementation of potential management measures. Where feasible costs have been quantified, where this has not been possible costs are stated qualitatively. All quantified costs have been discounted in line with HM Treasury guidance using a discount rate of 3.5% to reflect preference for current consumption over future consumption.

Finfish aquaculture

There are currently no finfish aquaculture sites within the North-east Lewis pMPA, with a single finfish aquaculture site located within a 1 km buffer around the site. It is expected that the finfish aquaculture in the North-east Lewis pMPA will expand over the assessment period, and an assumption has been used below that there will be 1 application for new or expanding sites every 10 years in North-east Lewis. It is assumed that the site in the site currently uses acoustic deterrent devices (ADDs), intended to reduce predation by seals.

It is possible that there may be costs incurred as a result of potential future development in the area, with associated impacts on project delays, on consenting and on wider investment opportunities. Possible social impacts may flow from these economic costs; there may be reduced future employment opportunities if additional costs are significant and render development projects economically unviable or if delays arising from designation impact on potential investment opportunities. However, at this stage it is not possible to quantify these potential future impacts.

Economic Impacts arising from the Designation of the pMPA (2019 to 2038)
		Lower Estimate	Intermediate Estimate	Upper Estimate
Assumptions for impacts		It is assumed there will be 1 application every 10 years in NEL. Additional assessment to support new applications will cost £5,600 per assessment. Development of and compliance with vessel management plan will cost £1,000 per new application.	It is assumed there will be 1 application every 10 years in NEL. Additional assessment to support new applications will cost £5,600 per assessment. The additional cost of installing 50% cetacean-friendly ADDs is £11,500 per site, every 6 years. Development of and compliance with vessel management plan will cost £1,000 per new application.	It is assumed there will be 1 application every 10 years in NEL. Additional assessment to support new applications will cost £5,600 per assessment. The additional cost of installing antipredator nets is £48,000 per site. It is assumed that the cost associated with antipredator nets will be phased in associated with the replacement of end-of-life ADDs, and required for all new applications. Development of and compliance with vessel management plan will cost £1,000 per new application.
Description of quantified one-off impacts – (on-site)		Additional assessment is required to assess the potential impact of new fishfarms on MPA features to support planning applications. Total cost = £11k Development of and compliance with vessel management plan. Total cost = £2k	Additional assessment is required to assess the potential impact of new fishfarms on MPA features to support planning applications. Total cost =£11k Development of and compliance with vessel management plan. Total cost =£2k Replacement of 50% of end of life ADDs with cetacean appropriate devices. Total cost = £92k	Additional assessment is required to assess the potential impact of new fishfarms on MPA features to support planning applications. Total cost =£11k Development of and compliance with vessel management plan. Total cost = £2k Replacement of ADDs with antipredator nets. Total cost = £144k
Description of quantified recurring impacts – (on-site)		N/A	N/A	N/A
Description of non-quantified costs	On-site	Cost of uncertainty and delays in planning applications.	Cost of uncertainty and delays in planning applications.	Cost of uncertainty and delays in planning applications.
	Off-site	Potential displacement of new aquaculture sites to areas outwith the pMPA.	Potential displacement of new aquaculture sites to areas outwith the pMPA.	Potential displacement of new aquaculture sites to areas outwith the pMPA.
Quantified Costs on the Activity of Designation of the Site as an MPA (in £000s)
Total costs (2019–2038)		13	105	157
Average annual costs		1	5	8
Present value of total costs (2019–2038)		9	71	107
Total costs = Sum of one-off costs and recurring costs for the site summed over the 20 year period. Average annual costs = Total costs divided by the total number of years under analysis (i.e. 20). Present value of total costs = Total costs discounted to their current value, using a discount rate of 3.5%.

Shellfish aquaculture

There are currently no shellfish aquaculture sites within the North-east Lewis pMPA, and no shellfish aquaculture sites within a 1 km buffer around the site. However, there are a number of sites in close proximity (albeit greater than 1 km from the site) and therefore, with the growth of the industry there is potential for shellfish aquaculture in the North-east Lewis pMPA to develop over the assessment period, and an assumption has been used below that there will be 1 application for a new site (or expansion of existing site) every 10 years in North-east Lewis.

Economic Impacts arising from the Designation of the pMPA (2019 to 2038)
		Lower Estimate	Intermediate Estimate	Upper Estimate
Assumptions for impacts		It has been assumed that there will be 1 new application in NEL every 10 years. Additional assessment of the impact on MPA features from new sites will cost £5,600 per application. Development of a vessel management plan associated with new applications will cost £1,000 per application.	It has been assumed that there will be 1 new application in NEL every 10 years. Additional assessment of the impact on MPA features from new sites will cost £5,600 per application. Development of a vessel management plan associated with new applications will cost £1,000 per application.	It has been assumed that there will be 1 new application in NEL every 10 years. Additional assessment of the impact on MPA features from new sites will cost £5,600 per application. Development of a vessel management plan associated with new applications will cost £1,000 per application.
Description of quantified one-off impacts - (on-site)		Additional assessment is required to assess the potential impact of new shellfish aquacultures sites on MPA features to support planning applications. Total cost = £11,200 Development of and compliance with vessel management plan. Total cost = £2,000	Additional assessment is required to assess the potential impact of new shellfish aquacultures sites on MPA features to support planning applications. Total cost = £11,200 Development of and compliance with vessel management plan. Total cost = £2,000	Additional assessment is required to assess the potential impact of new shellfish aquacultures sites on MPA features to support planning applications. Total cost = £11,200 Development of and compliance with vessel management plan. Total cost = £2,000
Description of quantified recurring impacts – (on-site)		N/A	N/A	N/A
Description of non-quantified impacts	On-site	Cost of uncertainty and delays.	Cost of uncertainty and delays.	Cost of uncertainty and delays.
	Off-site	N/A	N/A	N/A
Quantified Costs on the Activity of Designation of the Site as an MPA (in £000s)
Total costs (2019 to 2038)		13	13	13
Average annual costs		1	1	1
Present value of total costs (2019 to 2038)		9	9	9
Total costs = Sum of one-off costs and recurring costs for the site summed over the 20 year period. Average annual costs = Total costs divided by the total number of years under analysis (i.e. 20). Present value of total costs = Total costs discounted to their current value, using a discount rate of 3.5%.

Coastal protection

The data currently available through the Eurosion database currently identifies no coastal protection assets within the site. However, it is thought that there are some areas of hard defence which are likely to require maintenance, and therefore assumptions made as summarised below.

Economic Impacts arising from the Designation of the pMPA (2019 to 2038)
		Lower Estimate	Intermediate Estimate	Upper Estimate
Assumptions for impacts		It has been assumed that there is one application every 5 years in NEL for maintenance of a coastal protection asset. Additional assessment of the impact on MPA features from new sites will cost £5,600 per application.	It has been assumed that there is one application every 5 years in NEL for maintenance of a coastal protection asset. Additional assessment of the impact on MPA features from new sites will cost £5,600 per application.	It has been assumed that there is one application every 5 years in NEL for maintenance of a coastal protection asset. Additional assessment of the impact on MPA features from new sites will cost £5,600 per application.
Description of quantified one-off impacts - (on-site)		Additional assessment is required to assess the potential impact of new coastal protection projects on MPA features to support planning applications. Total cost = £22,400	Additional assessment is required to assess the potential impact of new coastal protection projects on MPA features to support planning applications. Total cost = £22,400	Additional assessment is required to assess the potential impact of new coastal protection projects on MPA features to support planning applications. Total cost = £22,400
Description of quantified recurring impacts – (on-site)*		N/A	N/A	N/A
Description of non-quantified impacts	On-site	N/A	N/A	N/A
	Off-site	N/A	N/A	N/A
Quantified Costs on the Activity of Designation of the Site as an MPA (in £000s)
Total costs (2019–2038)		22	22	22
Average annual costs		1	1	1
Present value of total costs (2019–2038)		16	16	16
Total costs = Sum of one-off costs and recurring costs for the site summed over the 20 year period. Average annual costs = Total costs divided by the total number of years under analysis (i.e. 20). Present value of total costs = Total costs discounted to their current value, using a discount rate of 3.5%.

Commercial fisheries

North-east Lewis pMPA lies within ICES rectangles 45E3, 46E3, 45E4 and 46E4 in ICES Division VIa. Approximately 11,697 tonnes of fish and shellfish were landed from these ICES rectangles per annum (2012-2016), predominantly (over 60%) pelagic species by weight and shellfish species (over 50%) by value. The main gear types were midwater and demersal trawls.

VMS-based estimates and ICES rectangle landings statistics indicate that demersal trawls and creels (over-12m vessels) and demersal trawls and creels (under-12m vessels) are the main gear types that operate within the North-east Lewis pMPA. The value of landings from the pMPA was £1.7 million (over-12m vessels, from VMS data) and £4.0 million (under-12m vessels, indicated from ICES rectangle landings data) (annual average for 2012–2016, 2019 prices). Vessels fishing in the North-east Lewis pMPA predominantly operate from: Stornoway and Ullapool (over-12m vessels) and Stornoway and Ayr (under-12m vessels). Landings from the over-12m vessels were made predominantly into Stornoway (50%), Ullapool (28%) and Kinlochbervie (8 %). Landings from the under-12m vessels were made predominantly into Back (27%), Bernera (Lewis) (16%), Stornoway (15%) and Carloway (14%).

For the over-12m vessels, creels operated in particular in the sandeel grounds in the north of the pMPA while demersal trawls operated mainly in the southern part of the pMPA. For the under-12m vessels, creels operated in particular along the coast of Lewis and the southern part of the site.

Due to the small number of vessels operating in the site (less than 5), the value of the loss of fishing income and potential GVA impacts cannot be disclosed for data protection and commercial sensitivity reasons. These values are negligible however.

Economic Impacts arising from the Management Scenarios for the pMPA (2019 to 2038)
		Lower Estimate	Intermediate Estimate	Upper Estimate
Assumptions for impacts		Reduce risk of entanglement of static gear with Risso's dolphin by following best practice. It is assumed that this does not entail additional costs. Reduce risk of entanglement of Risso's dolphin with pelagic gear by following best practice. It is assumed that this does not entail additional costs.	Reduce risk of entanglement of static gear with Risso's dolphin by following best practice. It is assumed that this does not entail additional costs. Reduce risk of entanglement of Risso's dolphin with pelagic gear by following best practice. It is assumed that this does not entail additional costs. Exclude targeted fishing for sandeels. Exclusion of hydraulic gear from sandeel habitat. Exclusion of drift nets and set nets in southern half of site.	Reduce risk of entanglement of static gear with Risso's dolphin by following best practice. It is assumed that this does not entail additional costs. Reduce risk of entanglement of Risso's dolphin with pelagic gear by following best practice. It is assumed that this does not entail additional costs. Exclude targeted fishing for sandeels. Exclusion of hydraulic gear from sandeel habitat. Exclusion of drift nets and set nets across site between May and October.
One-off impacts (on-site)		None	None	None
Recurring impacts – cost impacts per fleet segment (annual values, £000s, 2019 prices) (on-site)*	Over-12m vessels	Loss of >12m fishing income:	Loss of >12m fishing income:	Loss of >12m fishing income:
	No gears affected	0.0	0.0	0.0
	Subtotal over-12m	0.0	0.0	0.0
	Under-12m vessels	Loss of <12m fishing income:	Loss of <12m fishing income:	Loss of <12m fishing income:
	Set nets and drift nets	0.0	Cannot be disclosed	Cannot be disclosed
	Subtotal under-12m	0.0	Cannot be disclosed	Cannot be disclosed
	Total all vessels	0.0	Cannot be disclosed	Cannot be disclosed
Description of non-quantified impacts	On-site	None	None	None
	Off-site	None	If activity is displaced rather than lost, there is potential for: Gear conflict. Additional impacts on species outside of site. Changes to vessel costs/revenues.	If activity is displaced rather than lost, there is potential for: Gear conflict. Additional impacts on species outside of site. Changes to vessel costs/revenues.

Unlike most other sectors, the potential cost of designation on commercial fisheries is a loss or displacement of current (and future) output, caused by restrictions on fishing activities. Any decrease in output will, all else being equal, reduce the Gross Value Added (GVA) generated by the sector and have knock-on effects on the GVA generated by those industries that supply commercial fishing vessels. The costs estimates for this sector have therefore been estimated in terms of GVA, which more accurately reflects the wider value of the sector to the local area and economy beyond the market value of the landed catch.^[3] Costs are presented in terms of the reduction in full-time equivalent (FTE) employment. It is also possible that effort not continuing in the area could be transferred to other locations resulting in no or reduced loss of income. However, as above, values cannot be disclosed in the intermediate and upper scenarios, as it represents the activity of fewer than 5 vessels.

Quantified Costs on the Activity arising from the Management Scenarios for the MPA (£Million)
	Lower	Intermediate	Upper
Total change in GVA (2019–2038)	0	Disclosure threshold not met	Disclosure threshold not met
Average annual change to GVA	0	Disclosure threshold not met	Disclosure threshold not met
Present value of total change in GVA (2019–2038)	0	Disclosure threshold not met	Disclosure threshold not met
Direct and Indirect reduction in Employment	0	Disclosure threshold not met	Disclosure threshold not met

Ports and harbours

There are 5 minor ports and harbours within North-east Lewis pMPA or within a 1 km buffer of the North-east Lewis pMPA (Back, Bayble, Brevig, Garrabost and Ness). Therefore, management costs may be incurred under the assumption that minor ports/harbours will undertake development every 20 years (starting in 2029) within the assessment period (2019-2038).

It should be noted that additional cost impacts could arise as a result of consenting delays. The cost impacts and uncertainty associated with MPA designation may affect investor confidence.

Economic Impacts arising from Designation of the pMPA (2019 to 2038)
	Lower Estimate	Intermediate Estimate	Upper Estimate
Assumptions for impacts	New development proposals affecting MPAs will require. Additional assessment of impacts to protected features. Additional assessment costs per licence application are estimated to be £7,600 (at 2019 prices). Costs are incurred by all major ports within 5km of new MPAs or all non-major ports within 1km of new MPAs. All major ports submit development applications every 5 years starting in 2021 and all other ports submit development applications every 20 years starting in 2029.	New development proposals affecting MPAs will require. Additional assessment of impacts to protected features. Additional assessment costs per licence application are estimated to be £7,600 (at 2019 prices). Costs are incurred by all major ports within 5km of new MPAs or all non-major ports within 1km of new MPAs. All major ports submit development applications every 5 years starting in 2021 and all other ports submit development applications every 20 years starting in 2029.	New development proposals affecting MPAs will require. Additional assessment of impacts to protected features. Additional assessment costs per licence application are estimated to be £7,600 (at 2019 prices). Costs are incurred by all major ports within 5km of new MPAs or all non-major ports within 1km of new MPAs. All major ports submit development applications every 5 years starting in 2021 and all other ports submit development applications every 20 years starting in 2029.
Description of quantified one-off impacts – (on-site)	Additional assessment cost for development of major ports. Total cost = £0 Additional assessment cost for development of minor ports. Total cost = £38,000	Additional assessment cost for development of major ports. Total cost = £0 Additional assessment cost for development of minor ports. Total cost = £38,000	Additional assessment cost for development of major ports. Total cost = £0 Additional assessment cost for development of minor ports. Total cost = £38,000
Description of quantified recurring impacts – (on-site)	N/A	N/A	N/A
Description of non-quantified costs	N/A	N/A	N/A
Quantified Costs on the Activity of Designation of the Site as an MPA (in £000s)
Total costs (2019–2038)	38	38	38
Average annual costs	2	2	2
Present value of total costs (2019–2038)	27	27	27
Total costs = Sum of one-off costs and recurring costs for the site summed over the 20 year period. Average annual costs = Total costs divided by the total number of years under analysis (i.e. 20). Present value of total costs = Total costs discounted to their current value, using a discount rate of 3.5%.

Power interconnectors

There are no power interconnectors currently located within the North-east Lewis pMPA. There is one project identified for potential development over the assessment period (Western Isles HVDC, potentially due for construction in 2021) which crosses the site. This project will require additional assessments to support planning applications (including marine licence) and regular survey to support operation and maintenance following construction.

Economic Impacts arising from the Designation of the pMPA (2019 to 2038)
		Lower Estimate	Intermediate Estimate	Upper Estimate
Assumptions for impacts		It has been assumed that the additional assessment required to include MPA features is £5,600 for each application. It has been assumed that the Western Isles HVDC connection is the only proposed connection in NEL during the assessment period.	It has been assumed that the additional assessment required to include MPA features is £5,600 for each application. It has been assumed that the Western Isles HVDC connection is the only proposed connection in NEL during the assessment period.	It has been assumed that the additional assessment required to include MPA features is £5,600 for each application. It has been assumed that the Western Isles HVDC connection is the only proposed connection in NEL during the assessment period. It will take 3 days of survey effort to survey a 12 nm section of cable within the MPA The restriction on survey effort to Nov-April is assumed to double the amount of time required to undertake the survey (3 days of survey effort will take on average 8 days in winter, 4 in summer i.e. an additional 4 days downtime). The cost of an additional day (generally weather down-time) is assumed to be £10,000. It is assumed that the Western Isles HVDC will require survey annually following construction in 2021.
Description of quantified one-off impacts – (on-site)		Cost of additional assessment for proposed interconnector projects transecting sites. Total cost = £5,600	Cost of additional assessment for proposed interconnector projects transecting sites. Total cost = £5,600	Cost of additional assessment for proposed interconnector projects transecting sites. Total cost = £5,600
Description of quantified recurring impacts – (on-site)		N/A	N/A	Cost associated with additional weather downtime associated with seasonal restriction on annual cable survey. Total cost = £680,000
Description of non-quantified costs	On-site	Cost of uncertainty and delays to licence applications	Cost of uncertainty and delays to licence applications	Cost of uncertainty and delays to licence applications
	Off-site	N/A	N/A	N/A
Quantified Costs on the Activity of Designation of the Site as an MPA (in £000s)
Total costs (2019–2038)		6	6	686
Average annual costs		0	0	34
Present value of total costs (2019–2038)		6	6	478
Total costs = Sum of one-off costs and recurring costs for the site summed over the 20 year period. Average annual costs = Total costs divided by the total number of years under analysis (i.e. 20). Present value of total costs = Total costs discounted to their current value, using a discount rate of 3.5%.

Telecommunication cables

There is one telecommunication cable which transits through North-east Lewis (BT-HIE Seg1.13) totalling approximately 15 km of length within the site. This links mainland Scotland with the Isle of Lewis.

Economic Impacts arising from the Designation of the pMPA (2019 to 2038)
	Lower Estimate	Intermediate Estimate	Upper Estimate
Assumptions for impacts	It has been assumed that the cost associated with additional assessment to support planning applications is £5,600 in 2019 prices. It has been assumed that the cable is replaced during the assessment period.	It has been assumed that the cost associated with additional assessment to support planning applications is £5,600 in 2019 prices. It has been assumed that the cable is replaced during the assessment period.	It has been assumed that the cost associated with additional assessment to support planning applications is £5,600 in 2019 prices. It has been assumed that the cable is replaced during the assessment period.
Description of quantified one-off impacts – (on-site)	Cost of additional assessment. Total cost = £5,600	Cost of additional assessment. Total cost = £5,600	Cost of additional assessment. Total cost = £5,600
Description of quantified recurring impacts – (on-site)	N/A	N/A	N/A
Description of non-quantified impacts	N/A	N/A	N/A
Quantified Costs on the Activity of Designation of the Site as an MPA (in £000s)
Total costs (2019–2038)	6	6	6
Average annual costs	0	0	0
Present value of total costs (2019–2038)	4	4	4
Total costs = Sum of one-off costs and recurring costs for the site summed over the 20 year period. Average annual costs = Total costs divided by the total number of years under analysis (i.e. 20). Present value of total costs = Total costs discounted to their current value, using a discount rate of 3.5%.

Public sector

The decision to designate North-east Lewis as an MPA, would result in costs being incurred by the public sector in the following areas:

• Preparation of Statutory Instruments
• Preparation of a Management Scheme
• Development of voluntary measures
• Site monitoring
• Regulatory and advisory costs associated with licensing decisions

The majority of these costs will accrue at the national level and as such have not been disaggregated to site level. Only the preparation of Statutory Instruments and regulatory and advisory costs associated with licensing decisions have been estimated at the site level

Site-specific Public Sector Costs (£Million, 2019-2038)
	Lower Estimate	Intermediate Estimate	Upper Estimate
Preparation of Statutory Instruments	0	0.0042	0.0042
Preparation of a Management Scheme	0.0278	0.0278	0.0278
Development of Voluntary Measures	0.0042	0.0042	0.0042
Site monitoring	0.324	0.324	0.324
Regulatory costs	0.007	0.007	0.007
Total Quantified Public Sector Costs	0.363	0.367	0.367
Average annual costs	0.018	0.018	0.018
Present value of total costs (2019 to 2038)	0.274	0.278	0.278

Total costs

Total quantified costs are presented in present value terms. Commercial fisheries costs are presented in terms of GVA.

Total Present Value of Quantified Costs (£Million, 2019-2038)
	Lower Estimate	Intermediate Estimate	Upper Estimate
Finfish Aquaculture	0.009	0.071	0.107
Shellfish Aquaculture	0.009	0.009	0.009
Coastal Protection	0.016	0.016	0.016
Ports and Harbours	0.027	0.027	0.027
Power Interconnectors	0.006	0.006	0.478
Telecommunication Cables	0.004	0.004	0.004
Total present value	0.072	0.134	0.642

GVA Impacts (£Million 2019-2038)
Commercial Fisheries	0	Cannot be disclosed	Cannot be disclosed

Total Non-Quantified Costs
Scenario	Lower	Intermediate	Upper
Sector/Group
Finfish Aquaculture	Cost of uncertainty and delays Potential displacement of new aquaculture sites to areas outwith the pMPA	Cost of uncertainty and delays Potential displacement of new aquaculture sites to areas outwith the pMPA	Cost of uncertainty and delays Potential displacement of new aquaculture sites to areas outwith the pMPA
Shellfish Aquaculture	Cost of uncertainty and delays	Cost of uncertainty and delays	Cost of uncertainty and delays
Commercial Fisheries	None	If activity is displaced rather than lost, there is potential for: Gear conflict. Additional impacts on species outside of site. Changes to vessel costs/revenues.	If activity is displaced rather than lost, there is potential for: Gear conflict. Additional impacts on species outside of site. Changes to vessel costs/revenues.
Power Interconnectors	Cost of uncertainty and delays to licence applications	Cost of uncertainty and delays to licence applications	Cost of uncertainty and delays to licence applications