Outcome Report: Consultation on setting the total allowable catch for Herring in the Firth of Clyde 2024

3. Outcome and next steps

In this section we have set out the Scottish Government’s recommended outcome and next steps.

3.1 Consideration of scientific advice and consultation responses

Current knowledge of the stock is uncertain. However, as responsible fisheries managers, our objective is to set sustainable TAC limits based on best available scientific evidence while considering our stakeholders views and wider obligations.

As outlined above, a wide range of views have been submitted through the consultation. While a number of respondents supported the rollover TAC proposal on the basis of the current evidence base, at the other end of the spectrum some respondents suggested a 0 TAC should be taken until more robust evidence is gathered.

We fully considered all the views submitted, particularly those suggesting a reduced or 0 TAC and citing limitations in the survey data. However, we remain confident in the scientific evidence used to inform our proposal.

For data limited stocks, where MSY cannot be quantified, a precautionary approach must still be taken based on the information available. Current knowledge of the Clyde herring stock is insufficient to be able to estimate MSY, but the Marine Directorate’s report informs a management approach which is expected to be sustainable in the long-term for both the stock and the ecosystem.

The surveys provided in the section 6 of the consultation document, indicate a year-on-year increase in stock biomass in quarter 4, with a small increase also seen in quarter 1. However, we have remained precautionary in our approach by proposing a rollover of the 2023 TAC rather than increasing it at this stage.

While not a pelagic focused survey, the data collected would signal any significant changes of Clyde herring compared to historic data sets. Therefore, the lack of a specific herring survey is not a sufficient reason to decrease the TAC any further.

The limitations of the current survey data prevent a formula or model that can be used to determine an analytical TAC level (comparable to the ICES process). Therefore, any changes that are proposed are done as proportional increases or decreases against this historical TAC depending on signal changes seen in the long-term annual science surveys. We are confident that the baseline historic TAC, which we may propose proportional changes against, is accurate. This was determined when more surveys were conducted and analysis of the herring landed occurred.

The uptake on this stock has been extremely limited in recent years. However, regardless of fishing activity, we remain confident that if the quota was fully utilised in compliance with the control measures, then the fishery would still be fished at sustainable levels.

Views were also provided on the existing control measures ranging from a derogation for seasonal closures to closing areas for the whole year. We consider the current measures to be proportionate to protect the herring population and the ecosystem while providing the opportunity to fish the stock, particularly during late summer.

3.2 Wider obligations

When setting or recommending TAC limits, one of our fundamental objectives is to set sustainable limits which are informed by the best available scientific evidence. This is an underlying principle which reflects national and international commitments and objectives, including the UK Fisheries Act, the Joint Fisheries Statement, the National Marine Plan, and the Fisheries Management Strategy, which have been at the forefront of the decision-making process for recommending the 2024 Clyde herring TAC.

The evidence available indicates that the management approach for 2024 is:

a) environmentally sustainable in the long term, and managed so as to achieve economic, social and employment benefits and contribute to the availability of food supplies.

b) aligns with the precautionary approach.

c) ensures negative impacts on marine ecosystems are minimised.

d) is expected to maintain populations of all commercially exploited fish within safe biological limits.

3.3 Conclusion

Having considered the best available scientific information, the wider obligations and analysed all responses submitted through the consultation process, the TAC for 2024 has been recommended to the UK Secretary of State at 583 tonnes. This is a rollover of the 2023 TAC and retains the existing management measures.

3.4 Next steps

The Scottish Government has made a recommendation to the UK Secretary of State. A determination on the TAC level will subsequently be made by the Secretary of State. It is expected this will occur in August but is subject to UK government processes.

The majority of respondents noted that additional and more recent data was required to give a more robust assessment of the stock. As highlighted during meetings with stakeholders, there is currently a lack of resources within the Marine Directorate to undertake these. However, we remain confident that any signal changes in the population will be detected as part of the long-term annual Bottom Trawl Survey in Q1 and Q4. In addition, and as outlined in the consultation, the Marine Directorate continues to request any relevant additional data that fishers, research organisations, universities or other stakeholders may hold on this stock.

Consideration will be given to any data which:

• Is verified numerical data.
• Records some or all of: fish weights, lengths, ages, and maturities.

Examples may include herring surveys, herring sampling data, fishers’ logbook data (detailing catch, location, reported landings). Please submit any data to mss.fisheries.advice@gov.scot and Campbell Pert (Campbell.Pert@gov.scot) by 31 December 2024, to allow for consideration during 2025.