The Outcome of the Targeted Review of the Capital Spending Review – Updated Spending Allocations for 2023-24 to 2025-26

Capital Investment

The table below shows the Level 1 capital spend per portfolio over the remaining 3 years of the spending review period. Annex A shows level 2 and level 3 budget allocations, by portfolio, across the same period.

¹ The Level 1 totals cannot be directly compared with those published in 2021 Capital Spending Review due to a change in the Portfolio responsibilities following the 2021 Holyrood election.

These allocations provide funding that allow the Scottish Government and delivery partners to continue to progress, and in some cases increase, investment in each of the three themes of the existing Capital Spending Review, as well as underpinning some of the key priorities of the Resource Spending Review and the Bute House Agreement.

This includes:

• Increasing planned spending on Heat in Buildings from £1.6 billion to £1.8 billion over the CSR period (including Financial Transactions);
• Increasing planned capital investment in Active Travel to £656 million between 2023-24 and 2025-26;
• Funding to support the expansion of the Just Transition Fund to over £150 million by 2025-26 (including Financial Transactions);
• Providing additional support for agriculture with total investment of £247 million over the CSR period;
• Annual funding of £10 million provided to the Marine Fund Scotland in support of projects delivering Scotland's Blue Economy Vision outcomes;
• £100 million for peatland restoration, £64 million for the Nature Restoration Fund and a further £87 million to deliver a new national park, nature networks, increasing protected areas, and restoring ancient woodland and Atlantic rainforest over the CSR period;
• Supporting the roll out of digital devices to school pupils and improvements to school infrastructure through £140 million investment;
• Completing the £60 million investment in play parks by 2025-26;
• £30 million to support a system of school age childcare;
• £400 million to progress the National Treatment Centre programme;
• Continuing to support the delivery of 110,000 affordable homes by 2032; and
• Supporting the cladding remediation programme with £180 million of capital investment over 3 years.

We will also continue to progress key commitments as set out in the original Capital Spending Review, including:

• Investing over £5 billion in major rail improvements;
• Increasing digital connectivity across Scotland through the £600 million Reaching 100% programme;
• Investment of over £525 million over the capital spending review period for the £5 billion City Region and Regional Growth Deals programme;
• Support Local Government capital investment with £1.9 billion of funding over the remainder of the capital spending review period (2023-24 to 2025-26);
• Support Ferry services and invest in new vessels with £580 million of funding;
• Invest in flood defence and nature-based solutions to increase climate resilience; and
• Investing over £500 million in modernising the prison estate.

The challenging external market conditions of inflation and supply chain impacts described above are already causing delays and placing pressure on budgets associated with certain projects. Reflecting this, as well as the challenging fiscal position, within this targeted review of the 2021 Capital Spending Review, there are a number of areas where the funding profile has had to be slowed down - such as road improvement programmes. It is now unlikely that the Capital Spending Review's ambition to double the level of spending on maintenance of infrastructure will be reached. These are not choices that the Government has taken lightly and it will ensure that the maintenance of our assets will still be prioritised where possible. This is in line with the investment hierarchy established in the Infrastructure Investment Plan.

The updated Capital Spending Review allocations set out in this document reflect a prudent approach to over-programming. In the more material capital programmes, portfolios will take into account the particular circumstances in delivering projects and exercise some prudent discretion in over-programming. The overall assessment of collective programming and risk management will be agreed for each budget year going forward.

The Net Zero, Energy and Transport portfolio, with a CSR allocation of £8.5 billion over 2023-24 to 2025-26, is responsible for a significant proportion of the government's infrastructure commitments, covering key national transport, energy and environment programmes and projects. As a result, it is also subject to the most volatility in delivery schedules arising from potential delays in planning permissions, site complications and supply-chain interruptions. Therefore a prudent over-programming approach is being utilised, with the portfolio managing within a 4% tolerance over the remaining three years of the Capital Spending Review. This will enable the portfolio to manage any slippage across its wide range of programmes to maximise the level of capital investment achievable, driving economic growth and net zero commitments.

Beyond the Capital Spending Review period

The Scottish Government remains committed to the projects and programmes set out in the Capital Spending Review and Infrastructure Investment Plan where business cases continue to demonstrate value for money. For a small number of major projects and programmes which span this and future spending review periods, due to the uncertainty about long term pricing and market conditions, funding is not able to be confirmed in full at this time. The Scottish Government remains committed to investing in Scotland's future and will regularly assess future funding and financing opportunities to deliver the right strategic assets in the right places.

The purpose of this update is to set out clear plans to provide our partners and the market with confidence in the Scottish Government's approach but there remains significant volatility and elements of the infrastructure programme will continue to develop.

We will keep progress under review with final allocations agreed by Parliament each year through the annual budget process and periodically with our six-monthly reporting on the Infrastructure Investment Plan.