Heat networks target 2035 consultation: business and regulatory impact assessment - partial

4. Options

Potential targets have been developed principally using data produced as part of the First National Assessment (FNA) of Potential Heat Network Zones, published in March 2022.^[9]

The FNA utilises the heat demands and outputs from the Scotland Heat Map,^[10] Home Analytics,^[11] and Non-Domestic Analytics.^[12] The approach and outputs align with the first steps of the current methodology^[13] for the identification of potential zones for heat networks that forms part of the LHEES Methodology. The report includes two main scenarios:

1. A higher estimate of potential (Higher Potential – referred to in the FNA as Baseline Criteria); and

2. A lower estimate of potential (Medium Potential – referred to in the FNA as Stringent Criteria).

The first of these sets a lower threshold in terms of heat demand, density, and distance, whilst the second sets a higher threshold, resulting in fewer potential areas being identified.

Table 1 below sets out a summary of three evidence-based options for a potential 2035 target. The FNA scenario datasets that have been used are shown next to each option. The table provides an indication of how these compare to non-electrical heat consumption.^[14]

Table notes: ^A Scottish Energy Statistics Hub > Energy Efficiency > Demand Reduction > Heat Consumption > Sector