Partial Business and Regulatory Impact Assessment (Northern North Sea) - Fisheries Management Measures within Scottish Offshore Marine Protected Areas (MPAs)

Limitations and Uncertainties

All of the estimates of costs and benefits assessed within the SEIA are subject to significant uncertainties. Uncertainties around economic estimates arise from the assumptions on the level of displacement of fishing activity as it is not possible to establish the true levels. For example, for the higher end of the range for figures presented for each option, it is assumed that the entire value of landings affected would be lost, however in practice a level of displacement of activity is likely to occur which would mitigate that.

As the value of future landings cannot be forecast, it is assumed that the value of landings are constant over time for the analysis. The average value of landings per year estimated for each site is therefore assumed to be the same in each of the 20 years covered by the quantification of impacts. In reality, it is likely that the value of landings in each site would fluctuate over time, and hence the estimated loss in landings may underestimate or overestimate the true future value of landings. As the GVA and employment estimates are based on the value of affected landings, the same limitation applies.

These limitations and uncertainties are discussed further in the SEIA, Section 9.