Publication - Impact assessment

Planning Scotland's Seas: 2013 - The Scottish Marine Protected Area Project – Developing the Evidence Base for Impact Assessments and the Sustainability Appraisal Final Report - Appendix E - Marine Site Reports

Published: 19 August 2013
Topic: Marine and fisheries
ISBN: 9781782567585

This is Appendix E for the pMPA Impact and Sustainability Report containing the detailed site by site reports. Published separately due to size.

Supporting documents

Part 1. Inshore Sites

Clyde Sea Sill ( CSS)

Site Area (km ²): 714

Site Summary

Table 1. Summary of Proposed Protected Features, Data Confidence and Conservation Objectives					[ CSS]
Proposed protected features
Biodiversity Features Black guillemot, fronts, circalittoral sand and coarse sediment communities. Geodiversity Features Marine Geomorphology of the Scottish Shelf Seabed - sand banks, sand ribbon fields, sand wave fields. Site Description The Clyde Sea Sill MPA proposal stretches across the mouth of the Clyde Sea on the west of Scotland. The proposal runs from the Mull of Kintyre to Corsewall Point on the Rhinns of Galloway.
Summary of confidence in presence, extent and condition of proposed protected features and conservation objectives
Proposed Protected Feature	Estimated Area of Feature (by scenario) (km ²)	Confidence in Feature Presence	Confidence in Feature Extent	Confidence in Feature Condition	Conservation Objective and Risk
Biodiversity Features
Black guillemot	*Lower: 29.05 Intermediate: 29.05 Upper: 29.05	Yes (Seabird 2000 census)	Yes	Not known	Conserve
Fronts	Lower: 713.30 Intermediate: 713.30 Upper: 713.30	Yes (Ocean thermal imagery, 2000 - 2009)	Yes	Not known	Conserve
Circalittoral sand and coarse sediment communities	Lower: 528.31 Intermediate: 528.31 Upper: 528.31	Yes (Marine Scotland surveys, 2012)	Yes	Not known	Conserve
Geodiversity Features
Marine Geomorphology of the Scottish Shelf Seabed - sand banks, sand ribbon fields, sand wave fields	Sand Bank: 4.99 Sand Ribbon Field: 34.06 Sand Wave Field: 146.08	Yes (Defra research, 2009; SNH & JNCC review, 2012)	Yes	Not known	Conserve
Key: * Estimated area based on best available data References: Area of Feature: GeMs Confidence in feature presence and extent: SNH (2012a)

Summary of Costs and Benefits

Table 2a. Site-Specific Economic Costs on Human Activities arising from the Designation and Management of the Site as an MPA (present value of total costs over 2014 to 2033 inclusive)			[ CSS]
Human Activity	Cost Impact on Activity
Human Activity	Lower Estimate (£Million)	Intermediate Estimate (£Million)	Upper Estimate (£Million)
Quantified Economic Costs (Discounted)
Commercial Fisheries*	0.000	1.616	3.232
Energy Generation	0.011	0.022	0.022
Military	See national costs	See national costs	See national costs
Telecom Cables	0.007	0.007	0.007
Total Quantified Economic Costs	0.018	1.645	3.261
Non-Quantified Economic Costs
Commercial Fisheries	None.	Displacement impacts.	Displacement impacts.
Energy Generation	Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment.	Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment.	Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment.
Military	See national assessment.	See national assessment.	See national assessment.
Telecom Cables	Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment.	Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment.	Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment.
Note: For detailed information on economic cost impacts on activities, see Table 4. * These estimates (present value of total change in GVA) assume zero displacement of fishing activity and hence are likely to overestimate the costs.

Table 2b. Site-Specific Public Sector Costs arising from the Designation and Management of the Site as an MPA (over 2014 to 2033 inclusive)			[ CSS]
Description	Public Sector Costs
Description	Lower Estimate (£Million)	Intermediate Estimate (£Million)	Upper Estimate (£Million)
Quantified Public Sector Costs (Discounted)
Preparation of Marine Management Schemes	None	None	None
Preparation of Statutory Instruments	None	0.041	0.045
Development of voluntary measures	National assessment	National assessment	National assessment
Site monitoring	National assessment	National assessment	National assessment
Compliance and enforcement	National assessment	National assessment	National assessment
Promotion of public understanding	National assessment	National assessment	National assessment
Regulatory and advisory costs associated with licensing decisions	0.002	0.003	0.003
Total Quantified Public Sector Costs	0.002	0.044	0.048
Non-Quantified Public Sector Costs
None identified.

Table 2c. Summary of Social Impacts and Distribution of Quantified Impacts arising from the Designation and Management of the Site as an MPA (over 2014 to 2033 inclusive)										[ CSS]
Key Areas of Social Impact	Description	Scale of Expected Impact across Scenarios, Average (mean no. of jobs affected)	Distributional Analysis
			Location			Fishing Groups Predominantly Affected		Social Groups Affected
			Region	Port	Rural/ Urban/ Island	Gear Types Most Affected	Vessels most affected	Crofters	Ethnic minorities	With disability or long term sick
Employment with consequent impacts on: Health, Crime, Environment, and Culture and Heritage	Commercial fisheries - Loss of jobs (direct and indirect)	Lower: 0 jobs Intermediate: 3 jobs Upper: 5 jobs	West West N. Ireland West	Ayr Campbeltown Belfast Oban	Impacts concentrated in urban and rural coastal areas	Nephrops trawls Dredges	Lower: N/A Upper: <15m	No Impact.	No breakdown of fisherman employment by ethnic origin.	No employment data but unlikely to be employed in fisheries..
If any energy generation developments do not proceed as a result of designation (due to additional costs, project delays, loss of investor confidence), there may be significant social impacts due to job losses (non-quantified).
Note: For detailed information on socio-economic impacts by sector, see Table 7a. For more detailed information on distributional impacts of quantified costs by sector see Tables 7b and 7c.

Table 2d. Site-Specific Benefits arising from the Designation and Management of the Site as an MPA (over 2014 to 2033 inclusive)		[ CSS]
Benefit	Description
Ecosystem Services Benefits (Moderate and High Benefits)	Relevance	Scale of Benefits
Non-use value of natural environment	Low - Moderate. Wrecks and the protected features, and a contribution of the site to MPA network, has non-use values.	Low - Moderate
Other Benefits
Tourism	Higher biodiversity due to designation, and presence of designations, may attract more tourism activity to local economy.
Contribution to ecologically coherent network	See report Section 7.5.
Note: For detailed information on ecosystem services benefits, see Tables 9 and 10. For detailed information on other benefits, see Table 5 (activities that would benefit) and Table 8 (contribution to ecologically-coherent network).

Summary of Overlaps and Interactions between Proposed Designated Features and Human Activities

Table 3. Overlaps and Potential Interactions between Features and Activities under different Scenarios, indicating need for Assessment of Cost Impacts on Human Activities from Designation of the Site as an MPA																	[ CSS]
	Aggregates	Aquaculture (Finfish)	Aquaculture (Shellfish)	Aviation	Carbon Capture & Storage	Coastal Protection	Commercial Fisheries	Energy Generation	Military Activities	Oil & Gas	Ports & Harbours	Power Interconnectors	Recreational Boating	Shipping	Telecom Cables	Tourism	Water Sports
Biodiversity Features
Black guillemot	-	-	-	-	-	-	L/I/U	L/ I/ U	L/I/U	U	U	U	L/I/U	-	L/I/U	L/I/U	L/I/U
Circalittoral sand and coarse sediment communities	-	-	-	-	-	-	L/ I/ U	L/I/U	L/I/U	L/I/U	-	L/I/U	L/I/U	-	L/I/U	L/I/U	L/I/U
Fronts	-	-	-	-	-	-	L/I/U	L/I/U	L/I/U	L/I/U	L/I/U	L/I/U	L/I/U	-	L/I/U	L/I/U	L/I/U
Geodiversity Features
Marine Geomorphology of the Scottish Shelf Seabed - sand banks	Not considered to be sensitive at the levels of exposure expected from human activities; thus, not considered in the context of management.
Marine Geomorphology of the Scottish Shelf Seabed - sand ribbon fields
Marine Geomorphology of the Scottish Shelf Seabed - sand wave fields
Note: L = Lower Scenario; I = Intermediate Scenario; U = Upper Scenario. Normal font indicates that there is an overlap between the activity and proposed designated feature under that scenario, bold indicates that the overlap results in a potential interaction between the activity and proposed designated feature that has resulted in cost impacts under that scenario. For detail of management measures assessed under each scenario for each activity, and results of the cost estimates, see Table 4.

Human Activity Summaries

Human activities that would be impacted by designation of the site as an MPA

Table 4a. Commercial Fisheries (assuming zero displacement of fishing activity)			[ CSS]
According to VMS-based estimates and ICES rectangle landings statistics, Nephrops trawls, dredges, pelagic trawls, whitefish trawls and seines (over-15m) and nephrops trawls, pots, dredges and other gear (under-15m vessels) operate within the CSS proposed MPA. The value of catches from the CSS area was £398,000 (over-15m vessels) and £476,000 (under-15m vessels, indicated from ICES rectangle landings data) (annual average for 2007-2011, 2012 prices). Landings from the over-15m vessels were made predominantly into Campbeltown (48%), Portavogie (16%), Ardglass (9%), Girvan (8%) and Troon and Saltcoats (7%). For the over-15m fleet, dredgers operated in particular in the northern part of the proposed MPA across the area of circalittoral sand and coarse sediment, while nephrops trawlers operated mainly in the south-west part of the proposed MPA outside of this area of sediment. Provisional ScotMap data indicate that the annual average earnings from the CSS proposed MPA was £105,000, with over 40% from pots (velvet crab, brown crab and lobster), over 30% from dredges, and over 25% from Nephrops trawls. The spatial distribution of value from Nephrops trawls indicates that the majority of value is derived from further north than the CSS proposed MPA area in the Firth of Clyde. It is likely that the ICES rectangle estimate for the cost impact on <15m Nephrops trawls is an over-estimate. The coverage for ScotMap interviews in the region was 63.8% (total value of reported landings from the Fisheries Information Network for those vessels included in the ScotMap value analysis expressed as a percentage of the total reported landings for all vessels <15m). Therefore the ScotMap estimate is likely to under-represent the value of fishing by under-15m vessels, and the spatial representation of the value of fishing is less robust than in regions where coverage is higher. VMS data indicated that there are no foreign vessels fishing within the CSS proposed MPA. Management measures for the scenarios have been developed based on the sensitivity and vulnerability of the features to the pressures caused by different gear types and SNH recommendations. Unlike most other sectors, the potential cost of designation on commercial fisheries is a loss or displacement of current (and future) output, caused by restrictions on fishing activities. Any decrease in output will, all else being equal, reduce the Gross Value Added ( GVA) generated by the sector and have knock-on effects on the GVA generated by those industries that supply commercial fishing vessels. The costs estimates for this sector have therefore been estimated in terms of GVA. GVA estimates have been generated by applying fleet segment-specific ' GVA/total income' ratios to the value of landings affected. The GVA ratios have been calculated using data on total income and GVA from the Sea Fish Industry Authority Multi-year Fleet Economic Performance Dataset (published March 2013). Further details on the GVA ratios and the methodology for estimating GVA and employment impacts applied are presented in Appendix C7. It is important to note that all costs presented below assume that all affected landings are lost, that is, there is no displacement of fishing activity to alternative fishing grounds. In reality, some displacement is likely to occur and hence the cost, GVA and employment impacts presented in this table are likely to overestimate the costs.
Economic Costs on the Activity of Designation of the Site as an MPA
	Lower Estimate	Intermediate Estimate	Upper Estimate
Assumptions for cost impacts	No cost impacts expected.	Reduce mobile bottom-contact gear pressure (whitefish, nephrops and other trawls and seines, beam trawls and dredges) by 50% across circalittoral sand and coarse sediment communities feature.	Closure to mobile bottom-contact gears (whitefish, nephrops and other trawls and seines, beam trawls and dredges) across circalittoral sand and coarse sediment communities feature.
Description of one-off costs	None.	None.	None.
Description of recurring costs	None.	Loss of >15m fishing income (annual values, £ million, 2012 prices): Nephrops trawls (0.010); Dredges (0.063); Other affected gears (0.006). Loss of <15m fishing income (annual values, £ million, 2012 prices): Nephrops trawls (0.131); Dredges (0.016); Other affected gears (<0.001).	Loss of >15m fishing income (annual values, £ million, 2012 prices): Nephrops trawls (0.019); Dredges (0.127); Other affected gears (0.012). Loss of <15m fishing income (annual values, £ million, 2012 prices): Nephrops trawls (0.262); Dredges (0.032); Other affected gears (<0.001).
Description of non-quantified costs	None.	Displacement effects, including conflict with other fishing vessels, environmental impacts in targeting new areas, longer steaming times and increased fuel costs, changes in costs and earnings, gear development and adaptation costs, and additional quota costs.	Displacement effects, including conflict with other fishing vessels, environmental impacts in targeting new areas, longer steaming times and increased fuel costs, changes in costs and earnings, gear development and adaptation costs, and additional quota costs.
Quantified Costs on the Activity of Designation of the Site as an MPA (£Million)
Total costs (2014-2033)	0.000	4.523	9.046
Average annual costs	0.000	0.226	0.452
Present value of total costs (2014-2033)	0.000	3.327	6.653
Economic Impacts (£Million)
Total change in GVA (2014-2033)	0.000	2.197	4.394
Average annual change to GVA	0.000	0.110	0.220
Present value of total change in GVA (2014-2033)	0.000	1.616	3.232
Direct and Indirect reduction in Employment	0.0 jobs	2.6 jobs	5.2 jobs
Total costs = Sum of one-off costs and recurring costs for the site summed over the 20 year period. Average annual costs = Total costs divided by the total number of years under analysis ( i.e. 20). Present value of total costs = Total costs discounted to their current value, using a discount rate of 3.5%. Total change in GVA (2014-2033) = The change in direct GVA in the sector for the site summed over the 20 year period. Average annual change to GVA = Total change in direct GVA in the sector for the site divided by the total number of years under analysis ( i.e. 20). Present value of total change in GVA (2014-2033) = Total change in direct GVA in the sector for the site discounted to current value, using a discount rate of 3.5%. Direct and Indirect reduction in Employment = The average (mean) reduction in direct employment in the sector plus the indirect reduction in employment on the sector's suppliers.

Table 4b. Energy Generation			[ CSS]
There are no energy generation activities currently operating within the CSS proposed MPA boundary or corresponding buffer zones. Thus, economic costs and management measures associated with energy generation in this proposed MPA are described in light of known possible future developments. The Sanda Sound (Oceanflow Energy, 35kW (nominal)) tidal energy project is a ¼ scale testing device in preparation for a larger scale future development. The development, planned for deployment in 2013, overlaps the MPA features 'black guillemot' and 'fronts' under all scenarios ( i.e. lower, intermediate and upper extent), with further extensive overlap observed through consideration of a 5km buffer (also overlapping the MPA feature 'circalittoral sand and coarse sediment communities'). Nevertheless, any associated costs of the Sanda Sound tidal development are considered sunk as the application process (agreement reached for lease, test device currently undergoing checks) has the potential to reach a conclusion prior to 2014. Within the CSS proposed MPA boundary, the 5km buffer zone of the possible Argyll Mull of Kintyre Tidal Array (Nautricity Ltd and Argyll Tidal Ltd, potential 3MW capacity in total) overlaps MPA features 'circalittoral sand and coarse sediment communities' and 'fronts' under all scenarios. The MPA feature 'black guillemot' also overlaps the 5km buffer for the potential Argyll Tidal Array development, but only under the upper scenario. An export cable route for the Argyll Mull of Kintyre Tidal Array will potentially pass through the CSS proposed MPA boundary, overlapping all three previously mentioned MPA features under all extent scenarios. Sanda Island SSSI is notified for black guillemots and extends to MLWS. Main breeding colonies within the CSS proposed MPA boundary are already managed through SSSI designation. Given the medium sensitivity of black guillemot to death or injury by collision, barriers to species movement, sub-surface abrasion/penetration and changes in water flow (tidal current), there may be additional management costs incurred.
Economic Costs on the Activity of Designation of the Site as an MPA
	Lower Estimate	Intermediate Estimate	Upper Estimate
Assumptions for cost impacts	Additional licensing costs to assess potential impacts to black guillemot within 1km of proposed activities.	Additional licensing costs to assess potential impacts to black guillemot within 5km of proposed activities.	Additional licensing costs to assess potential impacts to all features within 5km of proposed activities.
Description of one-off costs	Additional assessment costs for licence application - £12k. Application estimated to be submitted in 2016 (Argyll Mull of Kintyre Tidal Array export cable route).	Additional assessment costs for licence application - £12k per licence application (up to 2 in total). Application(s) estimated to be submitted in 2016 (Argyll Mull of Kintyre Tidal Array and export cable route).	Additional assessment costs for licence application - £12k per licence application (up to 2 in total). Application(s) estimated to be submitted in 2016 (Argyll Mull of Kintyre Tidal Array and export cable route).
Description of recurring costs	None.	None.	None.
Description of non-quantified costs	Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment.	Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment.	Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment.
Quantified Costs on the Activity of Designation of the Site as an MPA (£Million)
Total costs (2014-2033)	0.012	0.024	0.024
Average annual costs	0.001	0.001	0.001
Present value of total costs (2014-2033)	0.011	0.022	0.022
Total costs = Sum of one-off costs and recurring costs for the site summed over the 20 year period. Average annual costs = Total costs divided by the total number of years under analysis ( i.e. 20). Present value of total costs = Total costs discounted to their current value, using a discount rate of 3.5%.

Table 4c. Military			[ CSS]
18 military practice areas (Luce Bay (D402A; bombing), Campbeltown (D509), Campbeltown South (X556; minelaying), Mermaid (X5529), Sanda (X5530), Stafnish (X5523), Ailsa (X5524), Ballantrae (X5525) and Corsewall (X5526); five submarine exercise areas and four firing danger areas) overlap with the CSS proposed MPA. The military practice areas Luce Bay (D402A; bombing), Campbeltown (D509), Campbeltown South (X556; minelaying), Mermaid (X5529), Sanda (X5530), Stafnish (X5523), Ailsa (X5524), Ballantrae (X5525) and Corsewall (X5526) overlap with circalittoral sand and coarse sediment communities (all scenarios), fronts (all scenarios) and Black Guillemot (upper scenario only). Sanda (X5530) and Stafnish (X5523) also overlap with Black Guillemot under all scenarios. The five submarine exercise areas and four firing danger areas overlap with the features of the CSS proposed MPA to varying degrees under the different extent scenarios. The features and associated habitats which overlap with military activities have not been described as vulnerable to MOD activities in this proposed MPA. It is assumed that management relating to MOD activity will be coordinated through the MOD's Maritime Environmental Sustainability Appraisal Tool ( MESAT) which the MOD uses to assist in meeting its environmental obligations. This process will include operational guidance to reduce significant impacts of military activities on MPAs. It is assumed that the MoD will incur additional costs in adjusting MESAT and other MoD environmental assessment tools in order to consider whether its activities will impact on the conservation objectives of MPAs and also incur additional costs in adjusting electronic charts to consider MPAs. However, these costs will be incurred at national level and hence no site-specific cost assessments have been made.
Economic Costs on the Activity of Designation of the Site as an MPA
	Lower Estimate	Intermediate Estimate	Upper Estimate
Assumptions for cost impacts	See National Assessment.	See National Assessment.	See National Assessment.
Description of one-off costs
Description of recurring costs
Description of non-quantified costs
Quantified Costs on the Activity of Designation of the Site as an MPA (£Million)
Total costs (2014-2033)	See national costs	See national costs	See national costs
Average annual costs	See national costs	See national costs	See national costs
Present value of total costs (2014-2033)	See national costs	See national costs	See national costs
Total costs = Sum of one-off costs and recurring costs for the site summed over the 20 year period. Average annual costs = Total costs divided by the total number of years under analysis ( i.e. 20). Present value of total costs = Total costs discounted to their current value, using a discount rate of 3.5%.

Table 4d. Telecom Cables			[ CSS]
Three telecom cables overlap with the CSS proposed MPA boundary; Lanis 3 for a distance of 19.5km, Scotland-N.Ireland 2 for a distance of 19.4km and Sirius North for a distance of 18.6km. All three telecom cables overlap with circalittoral sand and coarse sediment communities (all scenarios), fronts (all scenarios) and Black Guillemot (upper scenario only). The possible cost associated with replacement of existing telecom cables at the end of their working life is provided.
Economic Costs on the Activity of Designation of the Site as an MPA
	Lower Estimate	Intermediate Estimate	Upper Estimate
Assumptions for cost impacts	Where cables need replacing, additional licensing costs to assess potential impacts to features within the proposed development footprint.	Where cables need replacing, additional licensing costs to assess potential impacts to features within the proposed development footprint.	Where cables need replacing, additional licensing costs to assess potential impacts to features within the proposed development footprint; and Seasonal restrictions on laying cables due to Black Guillemot (assumed developer could work around these at no additional cost).
Description of one-off costs	Additional assessment costs for licence application - £10k assumed to be in 2024 (assume only one of existing telecom cables will need replacing over assessment period).	Additional assessment costs for licence application - £10k assumed to be in 2024 (assume only one of existing telecom cables will need replacing over assessment period).	Additional assessment costs for licence application - £10k assumed to be in 2024 (assume only one of existing telecom cables will need replacing over assessment period).
Description of recurring costs	None.	None.	None.
Description of non-quantified costs	Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment;	Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment;	Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment;
Quantified Costs on the Activity of Designation of the Site as an MPA (£Million)
Total costs (2014-2033)	0.010	0.010	0.010
Average annual costs	0.001	0.001	0.001
Present value of total costs (2014-2033)	0.007	0.007	0.007
Total costs = Sum of one-off costs and recurring costs for the site summed over the 20 year period. Average annual costs = Total costs divided by the total number of years under analysis ( i.e. 20). Present value of total costs = Total costs discounted to their current value, using a discount rate of 3.5%.

Human activities that would benefit from designation of the site as an MPA

Table 5. Human Activities that would Benefit from Designation of the Site as an MPA				[ CSS]
Activity	Description	Lower Estimate	Intermediate Estimate	Upper Estimate
Tourism	Coastal areas are well represented when considering the locations of various tourist related sites within Scotland with a range of site types present in all regions including the West. Where significant impacts to recreational boating or water sports have been identified for the site, there could also be consequential impacts on tourism.	Tourism may benefit from the designation of the MPA as an added attraction to the destination. In addition, there may also be indirect benefits to tourism as a result of benefits to some water sports activities, for example, recreational angling and diving.	The intermediate management measures applied to sector activities will result in an increase of the beneficial impacts seen in the lower estimate.	The upper management measures applied to sector activities will result in an increase of the beneficial impacts seen in the lower and intermediate estimates.
Water Sports - Sea Angling	Sea angling is carried out along most of the Scottish coastline within 6nm ( SSACN), CSS proposed MPA covers two section of coastline and these areas out to 6nm overlap with recreational sea angling. All proposed MPA features and their corresponding extents overlap with the sea angling areas however no management restrictions upon this activity are required.	Sea anglers could benefit from any on-site positive effects resulting from the MPA designation and corresponding management restrictions on sector activities including an increase in the size and diversity of species which in turn is expected to increase the attraction of a site for anglers (Fletcher et al. 2012).	The intermediate management measures applied to sector activities will result in an increase of the beneficial impacts seen in the lower estimate.	The upper management measures applied to sector activities will result in an increase of the beneficial impacts seen in the lower and intermediate estimates.
Water Sports - Scuba diving	There are seven dive sites located within CSS proposed MPA, one dive site is an unnamed submarine wreck and six are wreck dive sites (Hereford express, Agba, Empire Adventure, Windsor Castle, Byron Darnton and Siant Conan). All seven dive sites overlap with features in the lower, intermediate and upper scenarios. No management restrictions upon this activity are required.	The added protection offered by an MPA designation and management measures placed upon sector activities may increase the aesthetic attraction of the dive sites through an improved marine ecosystem and a reduction in degradation to the wreck sites.	The intermediate management measures applied to sector activities will result in an increase of the beneficial impacts seen in the lower estimate.	The upper management measures applied to sector activities will result in an increase of the beneficial impacts seen in the lower and intermediate estimates.

Human activities that are present but which would be unaffected by designation of the site as an MPA

Table 6. Human Activities that are Present but which would be Unaffected by Designation of the Site as an MPA [ CSS]
Activity	Description
Oil and Gas	There is one pipeline within the CSS proposed MPA boundary that overlaps with features proposed for designation; black guillemot, circalittoral sand and coarse sediment communities and fronts. The presence of the existing pipeline is not expected to require additional management measures. The designation of the MPA proposal would not lead to additional management for black guillemot above that of the Sanda Island SSSI.
Recreational Boating	There are no recreational boating anchorages located within the CSS proposed MPA that overlap with features proposed for designation, although three Crown Estate mooring points are present that overlap with feature extents for black guillemot and fronts under all scenarios. Neither feature is considered sensitive to pressures associated with anchoring, however; therefore no cost impacts are expected. Seven cruising routes intersect the CSS proposed MPA; three with low traffic and four with medium traffic. It is not considered that cruising routes will incur any management or assessment costs.
Ports and Harbours	There is one port/harbour (Southend) within the CSS proposed MPA boundary. Southend overlaps the MPA feature fronts under all scenarios; however, management costs are not expected to be incurred.
Power Interconnectors	Two existing power interconnectors and one consented power interconnector (Western HVDC Link) overlap with the CSS proposed MPA. Both existing power interconnectors and the one consented power interconnector overlap with circalittoral sand and coarse sediment communities (all scenarios), fronts (all scenarios) and Black Guillemot (upper scenario). No cost impacts are foreseen, as it is assumed that there will be no review of the existing consents.
Water Sports - Windsurfing	There is one popular windsurfing location (Southend) within the CSS proposed MPA. Water sports activities including windsurfing are assessed as not requiring any additional management measures. It is also considered that no additional benefit to windsurfing from management measures applied to other activities will occur.

Social and Distributional Analysis of Impacts from Designation of the Site as an MPA

Table 7a. Social Impacts Associated with Quantified and Non-Quantified Economic Costs					[ CSS]
Sector	Potential Economic Impacts	Economic Costs and GVA ( PV)	Area of Social Impact Affected	Mitigation	Significance of Social impact
Commercial Fisheries	Loss of traditional fishing grounds with consequent loss in landings, value of landings and hence GVA	Annual Average Loss in Value of Landings: Lower: £0.00m Intermediate: £0.23m Upper: £0.45m Annual Average Loss in GVA (direct and indirect): Lower: £0.00m Intermediate: £0.11m Upper: £0.22m	Culture and heritage - impact on traditions from loss of fishing grounds.		Health: xx (for individuals affected who do not find alternative employment)
	If the loss in GVA significant enough, risk of job losses (direct and indirect)	Job Losses*: Lower: 0.0 jobs Intermediate: 2.6 jobs Upper: 5.2 jobs	A reduction in employment can generate a wide range of social impacts which, in turn, can generate a range of short and long term costs for wider society and the public purse: Healt h (increase in illness, mental stress, loss of self esteem and risk of depression); Increase in crime; and Reduction in f u ture emp lo y me n t prospects/future earnings.	Support to retrain those affected and for the promotion of new small businesses in fisheries dependent areas.
	Displacement Effects	Not Quantified	Quantified impact on jobs assume worst case scenario ( i.e. no redistribution of effort). In reality displacement effects likely to occur with socio-economic consequences: Empl o y m e nt - reduced employment due to changes in costs and earnings profile of vessels ( e.g. increased fuel costs, gear development and adaption costs, additional quota costs); Conflict/Loss of social cohesion - diminishing fishing grounds may increase conflict with other vessels/gear types, increase social tensions within fishing communities and lead to a loss of social cohesion among fleets. Could also lead to increased operating costs as a result of lost or damaged gear. Equally, gear conflict could reduce where gears are restricted/prohibited; Healt h - increased risks to the safety of fishers and vessels and increased stress due to moving to lesser known areas; E n v ironmental - increased impact in targeting new areas, longer streaming times and increased fuel consumption; and Culture and heritage - change in traditional fishing patterns/ activities.		xx
Energy Generation	Additional operational costs	Quantified Cost Impact (2014-2033): £0.011 - 0.022m	Future employment opportunities - if increased operational costs associated with management measures render projects unviable or restrict project size there will be a negative impact on economic activity and job creation in this sector.		0
Energy Generation	Costs associated with delays during the consenting process Loss of investor confidence (developments do not proceed)	Not Quantified	Future employment opportunities - if the delays deter investments there will be a negative impact on economic activity and future job creation in this sector. Environment - possible negative impact in relation to climate change and the ability of the Scottish Government to meet its 2020 renewables targets, decarbonisation targets and climate change targets. There would also be consequent financial implications of climate change impacts. This impact is uncertain and is only likely to arise under the upper scenario. JNCC's current advice is that the intermediate scenario represents their best view on management requirements.		xxx (under the upper scenario only)
Impacts: xxx - significant negative effect; xx - possible negative effects; x - minimal negative effect, if any; 0 - no noticeable effect expected. * These estimates assume zero displacement of fishing activity and hence are likely to overestimate the costs.

Table 7b. Distribution of Quantified Economic Costs for Commercial Fisheries and Fish Processors (assuming zero displacement of fishing activity) - Location, Age and Gender								[ CSS]
Sector/Impact	Location			Age			Gender
Sector/Impact	Region	Ports*	Rural, Urban, Coastal or Island	Children	Working Age	Pensionable Age	Male	Female
Commercial Fisheries Reduction in landed value, GVA and employment	xx West (and Belfast)	xx Largest employment impacts in: Ayr (41%), Campbeltown (24%), Belfast (16%), Oban (14%)	xx Coastal Rural and Urban	xxx Potentially significant negative effect if parent loses job/becomes unemployed.	xxx Potentially significant negative effect if individuals lose job/become unemployed.	xx Potential negative effect if retirees own affected vessels or live in households affected by unemployment.	xxx 0-5 job losses Potentially significant negative effect on individuals that lose job/become unemployed.	xxx Potentially significant negative effect if member of household loses job/ becomes unemployed.
Fish Processors Reduction in local landings at landing ports	x West	x Campbeltown Troon and Saltcoates Girven	x Coastal Rural and Urban	0	0	0	0	0
Impacts: xxx - significant negative effect; xx - possible negative effects; x - minimal negative effect, if any; 0 - no noticeable effect expected. * Based on value of landings by home port affected under intermediate scenario.

Table 7c. Distribution of Quantified Economic Costs for Commercial Fisheries and Fish Processors (assuming zero displacement of fishing activity) - Fishing Groups, Income Groups and Social Groups								[ CSS]
Sector/Impact	Fishing Groups		Income Groups			Social Groups
Sector/Impact	Vessel Category <15m >15m*	Gear Types/Sector*	10% Most Deprived	Middle 80%	10% Most Affluent	Crofters	Ethnic minorities	With Disability or Long-term Sick
Commercial Fisheries Reduction in landed value, GVA and employment	Lower: N/A Upper: <15m	Nephrops trawls Dredges	xx	xx	x Information only available on average incomes not the distribution of income. Therefore, not clear whether this group will be affected.	0	No breakdown of fisherman employment by ethnic origin.	0 No employment data but unlikely to be employed in fisheries.
Fish Processors Reduction in local landings at landing ports		Shellfish: xxx Demersal: xx Pelagic: 0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Impacts: xxx - significant negative effect; xx - possible negative effects; x - minimal negative effect, if any; 0 - no noticeable effect expected. * Based on costs to gear types/sectors and vessel categories affected under the intermediate scenario.

Potential Contribution of the Site to an Ecologically-Coherent Network

Table 8. Overview of Features Proposed for Designation and how these contribute to an Ecologically Coherent Network of MPAs					[ CSS]
Feature Name	Representation	Replication	Linkages	Geographic Range and Variation	Resilience
Black guillemot	Provides representation of the southern limit for black guillemot in OSPAR Region III.	Represents one of six potential MPA areas that will protect black guillemot in Scotland's seas.	Will be reviewed in light of Northern Ireland proposals to determine connectivity with wider MPA network.	Represents the southern limit of the species' range in the UK and provides a link with the population in Northern Ireland.	Not listed as threatened and/or declining on OSPAR list, although there is evidence to suggest declines in Scottish seas. MPA may increase resilience.
Fronts	Provides representation for a topographic and density-driven front in OSPAR Region III.	Represents one of three potential MPA areas in OSPAR Regions II and III covering shelf seas. Replication is therefore provided in the network.	Not currently understood for fronts.	Each potential MPA is considered to cover functionally significant examples, reflecting different shelf fronts in a range of settings.	Not considered to be threatened and/or declining. No need to represent a greater proportion within MPA network.
Circalittoral sand and coarse sediment communities	Information not available.
JNCC (pers. comm.); SNH and JNCC. (2012). Assessment of the potential adequacy of the Scottish MPA network for MPA search features: summary of the application of the stage 5 selection guidelines. Available online from: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/marine/marine-environment/mpanetwork/engagement/270612.

Anticipated Benefits to Ecosystem Services

Table 9. Summary of Ecosystem Services Benefits arising from Designation of the Site as an MPA ^[1]								[ CSS]
Services	Relevance to Site	Baseline Level	Estimated Impacts of Designation			Value Weighting	Scale of Benefits	Confidence
Services	Relevance to Site	Baseline Level	Lower	Intermediate	Upper	Value Weighting	Scale of Benefits	Confidence
Fish for human consumption	Moderate. Habitats make contribution to food webs.	Stocks not at MSY	Nil	Low. Some recovery of benthic species possible.		High, site fishing grounds are valuable	Nil - Low	Moderate
Fish for non-human consumption	Moderate. Habitats make contribution to food webs.	Stocks reduced from potential maximum	Nil	Low. Some recovery of benthic species possible.		High, site fishing grounds are valuable	Nil - Low	Moderate
Gas and climate regulation	Nil - Low	Nil - Low	Nil	Nil	Minimal	Moderate	Nil	High
Natural hazard protection	Low	Low	Nil, would not affect stability of coastline			Moderate, Clyde is valuable for marine activities	Nil	High
Regulation of pollution	Low	Low	Nil	Minimal - Low, maintained by protecting seabed features		Low - Moderate, for recreational use of waters	Nil - Low	High
Non-use value of natural environment	Low - Moderate. Wrecks and protected features, and contribution of the site to MPA network, have non-use value.	Non-use value of the site may decline	Nil, no change in key characteristics of site	Low - protection of key characteristics of site from minor decline	Moderate - protection of key characteristics of site from decline, and/or allowing some recovery of values	Moderate	Low - Moderate	Low
Recreation	Moderate	7 active dive sites, Sea angling	Nil	Low - slightly higher biodiversity encountered by divers		Moderate	Low	Moderate
Research and Education	Moderate	Biological and geological features have research value but there are substitutes	Nil, no change in key characteristics of site	Low - protection of key characteristics of site from decline, improving future research opportunities		Low	Nil - Low	Low
Total value of changes in ecosystem services			Low for lower scenario, moderate for upper scenarios				Low - Moderate	Low

Human Activities which Occur within the Proposed MPA Clyde Sea Sill

Fishing Activities which Occur within the Proposed MPA Clyde Sea Sill

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Part 1. Inshore Sites

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