Planning Scotland's Seas: 2013 - The Scottish Marine Protected Area Project – Developing the Evidence Base tor Impact Assessments and the Sustainability Appraisal Final Report

C.8. Energy Generation

C.8.1 Introduction

This appendix provides an overview of existing and potential future activity for the energy generation sector in Scotland and outlines the methods used to assess the impacts of potential MPAs on this sector.

C.8.2 Sector Definition

The energy generation sector includes conventional energy generation (coal, gas, nuclear, etc.) as well as offshore renewables (offshore wind, wave and tidal) and marine biofuel (the production of algal biomass for use as a source of fuel). In addition to the power generation assets themselves, it also incorporates supply chains for renewables along with transmission capacity.

C.8.3 Overview of Existing Activity

Information sources used in the assessment are listed in Table C8.1.

Table C8.1 Energy Generation Information Sources

Scale	Information Available	Date	Source
Scotland	Amount of electricity generated by energy source in Scotland (Scottish Environmental Statistics Online)	2009	Scottish Government Statistics
Scotland	National Renewables Infrastructure Plan	2010	SE & HIE (2010)
Scotland	Blue Seas - Green Energy - A Sectoral Marine Plan for Offshore Wind Energy in Scottish Territorial Waters	2010	Scottish Government
Scotland	Potential Development Scenarios for Scottish Offshore Wind Supply Chain	2010	Scottish Renewables (2010)
Scotland	Scotland's Offshore Wind Route Map - Developing Scotland's Offshore Wind Industry to 2020	2010	Offshore Wind Industry Group
Scotland	The Offshore Valuation - A valuation of the UK's offshore renewable energy resource	2010	Public Interest Research Centre on behalf of The Offshore Valuation Group (2010)
Scotland	Scottish Offshore Wind: Creating an Industry to Scottish Renewables	2010	IPA Energy + Water Economics (2010)
Scotland	Information and analysis of wave and tidal market in Scotland	2011	Pure Marine Gen Ltd (2011)
Scotland	Draft Electricity Generation Policy Statement 2010	2010	Scottish Government
Scotland	A Low Carbon Economic Strategy for Scotland	2010	Scottish Government
Pentland Firth and Orkney Waters	Supply Chain Demand - PFOW Round 1 Wave and tidal Projects	2011	BVG Associates (2011)
West Coast	Scottish Offshore Renewables Development Sites	2011	Scottish Development International, Highlands and Islands Enterprise, and Scottish Enterprise (2011)
Scotland	Scotland's Renewable Energy Potential: realising the 2020 target	2005	Scottish Executive (2005), Future Generation Group Report
Scotland	Scottish Renewable Energy Generation Capacity	2010	Scottish Renewables
Scotland	Interim Great Britain Seven Year Statement	2004	National Grid (2004)
Scotland	Scottish and Southern Energy plc Annual Report 2011	2011	Scottish and Southern Energy plc (2011)
UK	Marine Renewable Energy Atlas. Direction, speed, potential output and temporal variation (gridded square)	Current	ABPmer
UK	Wind farm turbine locations (point)	Current	E.ON
UK	Wind farm cable routes (R3 most likely routes) (polygon)	Current	E.ON
UK / Scotland	Existing wave and tidal lease areas	Current	The Crown Estate
Scotland	Existing wind farm locations	Current	Marine Scotland
Scotland	Proposed wind farm lease areas	Current	Marine Scotland
Scotland	Proposed wave and tidal lease areas	Current	Marine Scotland
UK	UK offshore wind and wind development rounds	Current	Renewables UK http://www.renewableuk.com/en/renewable-energy/wind-energy/offshore-wind/development-rounds.cfm http://www.renewableuk.com/en/renewable-energy/wind-energy/index.cfm
UK	Digest of UK Energy Statistics 2012	2012	DECC ( www.gov.uk/government/organisations/department-of-energy-climate-change/series/digest-of-uk-energy-statistics-dukes)
UK and Regional	National and Regional Renewables Statistics	2011	DECC https://restats.decc.gov.uk/cms/regional-renewable-statistics/ and https://restats.DECC.gov.uk/cms/national-renewables-statistics
UK	Renewable Energy Planning Database	Current	DECC ( https://restats.decc.gov.uk/cms/planning-database/)
UK	Location of coastal power stations extracting seawater for cooling	Current	CP2/ ABPmer
UK	Location of existing nuclear power stations	Current	CP2/ ABPmer

C.8.3.1 Conventional electricity generation

At the end of March 2013 Scotland had four major coastal power stations in operation:

• Hunterston B in West Scotland: a nuclear power station commissioned in 1976 with an installed capacity of 820 MW;
• Torness in East Scotland: a nuclear power station commissioned in 1988 with an installed capacity of 1,230MW;
• Peterhead in North East Scotland: a gas/oil power station originally commissioned in 1980 with an installed capacity of 2,370 MW but limited to 1,540 MW due to transmission constraints. (It should be noted that since commissioning, various upgrading and conversion works have taken place. Also, two 250 MW gas turbines were decommissioned in 2009 ^[35] ); and
• Longannet in East Scotland: a coal fired power station which was commissioned in 1970 with an installed capacity of 2,304 MW.

Cockenzie Power Station closed on 15 ^th March 2013. The locations of existing operational coastal power stations are shown in Figure C11.

C.8.3.2 Offshore Renewable Energy

Offshore renewable energy sources currently exploited include offshore wind, wave and tidal energy. Scotland currently has two operational offshore wind sites: the Beatrice demonstrator project (two 5 MW turbines) and Robin Rigg (180 MW capacity) (IPA Energy + Water Economics and Scottish Renewables, 2010). The EMEC test centre, operational since 2003, provides a testing facility for wave and tidal devices. The Islay LIMPET wave device was the world's first commercial wave power device connected to the United Kingdom's National Grid. Following the construction of a 75 kW prototype in 1991, a 500 kW unit was built in 2000. Other full scale devices installed or currently operating in Scottish Waters include the following wave and tidal devices (Renewable UK, 2013):

Tidal

• HS1000 (Andritz Hydro Hammerfest) - Fall of Warness, EMEC;
• Open Centre turbine (OpenHydro) - Fall of Warness, EMEC;
• SR250 (Scotrenewables Tidal Power) - Fall of Warness, EMEC; and
• DeepGen 1MW (Alstom) - Fall of Warness, EMEC.

Wave

• Oyster 800 (Aquamarine Power) - Billia Croo, EMEC;
• Pelamis P2 (E.ON) - Billia Croo, EMEC;
• Pelamis P2 (ScottishPower Renewables) - Billia Croo, EMEC;
• Oceanus (Seatricity) - Billia Croo, EMEC; and
• Penguin (Wello) - Billia Croo, EMEC.

While the number of operational developments is small, within Scottish Territorial Waters, there are currently plans to install up to 4.4GW capacity of offshore wind in five short-term option sites (Argyll Array, Beatrice, Inch Cape, Islay, Neart na Gaoithe), together with a further 4.8GW capacity within two Round 3 sites in offshore waters (Moray and Firth of Forth). The European Offshore Wind Deployment Centre off Aberdeen has also recently secured consent. A large number of wave and tidal developments are also in planning, particularly associated with the Pentland Firth and Orkney Waters lease areas and lease awards made in relation to the Saltire Prize (see Table C8.2).

Current and planned offshore renewable energy generation sites in Scotland are presented in Figure C11.

Table C8.2. Planned wind, tidal and wave renewable energy projects around Scotland and within Scottish Territorial Waters as at 29 May 2013

Energy Type	Name/Location	Company (Project Website)	Status	Capacity (MW)
Wind	Robin Rigg, Solway Firth	E.ON Climate & Renewables ( http://eon-uk.com/generation/robinrigg.aspx)	Operational since Sep 2010.	90
Wind	Firth of Forth	SSE Renewables ( http://www.seagreenwindenergy.com/home.asp)	Pre-consent. Agreement to lease secured. ES for Phase 1 submitted Oct 2012. Scoping Report submitted for Phases 2 and 3.	3,465
Wind	Moray Firth	EDPR and Repsol Nuevas Energias UK ( http://www.morayoffshorerenewables.com/Home.aspx)	Pre-consent. ES submitted in Aug 2012.	1,300
Wind	Argyll Array, Tiree	Scottish Power Renewables ( http://www.argyllarray.com)	Pre-consent. Project currently on hold (Dec 2012).	1,800
Wind	Beatrice, Outer Moray Firth	Airtricity Holdings UK Ltd and Repsol Nuevas Energias UK ( http://www.sse.com/Beatrice/ProjectInformation)	Pre-consent. ES submitted Apr 2012.	920
Wind	Inch Cape	Repsol Nuevas Energias UK ( http://www.inchcapewind.com)	Pre-consent. Scoping Report submitted Aug 2010.	905
Wind	Islay	Airtricity Holdings UK Ltd ( http://www.sse.com/Islay/ProjectInformation)	Pre-consent. Agreement to lease secured Oct 2011.	680
Wind	Neart na Gaoithe	Mainstream Renewable Power Ltd ( http://www.neartnagaoithe.com)	Pre-consent. ES for submitted Jul 2012.	450
			Wind Total	9,610
Tidal	Sound of Islay	Scottish Power Renewables ( http://www.scottishpowerrenewables.com/pages/sound_of_islay.asp)	In planning. Consent granted Mar 2011. Awaiting construction.	10
Tidal	Kyle Rhea	SeaGeneration (MCT) ( http://www.seagenkylerhea.co.uk/progress.php)	In planning. Agreement to lease secured. ES submitted.	8
Tidal	Westray South, Pentland Firth	SSE Renewables ( http://www.sse.com/WestraySouth/ProjectInformation)	In development. Agreement to lease secured. Scoping Report submitted Nov 2011.	200
Tidal	Cantick Head, Pentland Firth	Cantick Head Tidal Development Ltd (SSE Renewables & OpenHydro) ( http://www.sse.com/CantickHead/ProjectInformation)	In planning. Agreement to lease secured.	200
Tidal	Brough Ness, Pentland Firth	SeaGeneration Ltd (MCT)	In planning. Agreement to lease secured.	100
Tidal	Inner Sound, Pentland Firth	MeyGen Ltd ( http://www.meygen.com/the-project/current-status)	In development. Agreement to lease secured. ES submitted. Phase 1 application submitted Jul 2012.	400
Tidal	Ness of Duncansby, Pentland Firth	Scottish Power Renewables ( http://www.scottishpowerrenewables.com/pages/ness_of_duncansby.asp)	In development. Agreement to lease secured.	100
Tidal	Bluemull Sound, Shetland	Nova Innovation ( http://www.novainnovation.co.uk/index.php/tidal)	In planning. Agreement to lease secured Oct 2011. Deployment planned for 2014/15.	0.5
Tidal	Ness of Cullivoe, Shetland	Nova Innovation ( http://www.novainnovation.co.uk/index.php/media-menu/14-nova-30-crown-estate-lease)	In planning. Agreement to lease secured May 2011.	0.03
Tidal	Esk Estuary, Montrose	GSK and Swan Turbines ( http://www.swanturbines.co.uk)	In planning. ES submitted. 10,19	0.67
Tidal	Mull of Kintyre, Argyll	Nautricity	In planning. Agreement to lease secured.	3
Tidal	Sanda Sound	Oceanflow Energy ( http://www.oceanflowenergy.com/project-details2.html)	In planning. Agreement to lease secured. Test device to be deployed late 2012.	0.035
Tidal	Isle of Islay	DP Marine Energy and DEME Blue Energy ( http://www.westislaytidal.com)	In planning. Agreement to lease secured.	30
Tidal	Fall of Warness	European Marine Energy Centre Ltd	Operational (test site).	N/A
Tidal	Shapinsay Sound	European Marine Energy Centre Ltd	In planning (test site).	N/A
			Tidal Total	1,052
Wave	Isle of Lewis (North West Lewis)	Aquamarine Power ( http://www.aquamarinepower.com/projects/north-west-lewis)	In planning. Agreement to lease secured. Consent granted Sept 2012.	40
Wave	South West Shetland	Aegir Wave Power (Pelamis Wave Power & Vattenfall) ( http://www.aegirwave.com)	In development. Agreement to lease secured May 2011.	10
Wave	Costa Head, Pentland Firth	SSE Renewables & ALSTOM UK ( http://www.sse.com/CostaHead/ProjectInformation)	In development. Agreement to lease secured.	200
Wave	Marwick Head, Pentland Firth	Scottish Power Renewables ( http://www.scottishpowerrenewables.com/pages/marwick_head.asp)	In development. Agreement to lease secured.	50
Wave	Brough Head, Pentland Firth	SSE Renewables & Aquamarine Power ( http://www.aquamarinepower.com/projects/west-coast-orkney)	In development. Agreement to lease secured. Scoping Report submitted Aug 2011.	200
Wave	West Orkney Middle South (WOMS) and South (WOS), Pentland Firth	E.ON Climate and Renewables and Pelamis (WOS) ( http://www.eon-uk.com/generation/OrkneyWaters.aspx)	In development. Agreement to lease secured. WOS Scoping Report submitted Mar 2012.	100
Wave	Farr Point, Pentland Firth	Ocean Power Delivery Ltd (Pelamis) ( http://www.pelamiswave.com/our-projects/project/5/Farr-Point-Wave-Farm)	In development. Agreement to lease secured. Scoping process initiated Apr 2011.	50
Wave	Bernera, Isle of Lewis	Pelamis Wave Power ( http://www.pelamiswave.com/our-projects/project/4/Bernera-Wave-Farm)	In planning. Agreement to lease secured Oct 2011.	10
Wave	Burghead, Moray Firth	AWS Ocean Energy	In planning. Agreement to lease secured.	0.5
Wave	Galson, Isle of Lewis	Lewis Wave Power Limited	In planning.	10
Wave	Siadar, Isle of Lewis	Voith Hydro Wavegen Ltd	In planning.	30
Wave	Billia Croo	European Marine Energy Centre Ltd	Operational (test site).	N/A
Wave	Scapa Flow	European Marine Energy Centre Ltd	In planning (test site).	N/A
			Wave Total	700

Source: The Crown Estate ( http://www.thecrownestate.co.uk, Accessed 29 May 2013)
Offshore Wind Energy - http://www.thecrownestate.co.uk/energy-infrastructure/offshore-wind-energy/our-portfolio
Tidal and Wave Energy - http://www.thecrownestate.co.uk/energy-infrastructure/wave-and-tidal/our-portfolio

C.8.3.3 Marine biomass

Rising concern over global warming has encouraged the movement to alternate fuels (Kraan et al. 2011). Growth rates of marine macroalgae far exceed those of terrestrial biomass and provide a potential alternative as a biofuel to land-based crops such as corn and sugar cane, and for the production of biogas. Among marine macroalgae, species of the temperate brown algal order Laminariales (so-called kelp species) are among the fastest growing plants in the world (Kraan et al. 2011; Kelly and Dworjanyn, 2008). While wild harvest of these species is expected to be unsustainable or only produce insignificant amounts, cultivation is a viable option. Macroalgae are already farmed on a large scale in the Far East for food consumption but to a much lesser extent in Europe, primarily in France (Marine Scotland, 2009).

Within Scotland only research scale developments into seaweed farms are currently being planned, although small scale seaweed harvesting does take place along the West coast where brown, red and green seaweeds are all harvested.

C.8.3.4 Supply chain for offshore renewables

The supply chain for offshore renewables covers all the jobs associated with manufacturing, transporting and installing renewable devices, as well as related tasks such as maintenance, surveying, and operations. This baseline focuses on the main supply chain activities such as the manufacture, installation, operation and maintenance of renewable energy devices.

Although the supply chain for onshore wind is providing jobs across Scotland (Scottish Executive, 2005), development of the fixed offshore wind supply chain has been slow both in the UK and Europe as a whole (Public Interest Research Centre, 2010). However, IPA Energy + Water Economics (2010) report for Scottish Renewables notes that there is existing capacity in the Scottish supply chain for offshore wind. The report also notes the potential for the offshore wind industry to deliver up to £7.1bn of investment and create more than 28,000 FTE jobs. The main strengths of this supply chain are listed as (ibid):

• Offshore engineering with expertise in construction, operations and maintenance, project management and training (due to the offshore Oil and Gas sector);
• Design and development services including consultancy, engineering and project development services;
• Research and development expertise in the private sector, academia and public sector funded programmes;
• Existing port facilities with North Sea access and surrounding offshore service networks; and
• Fabrication and manufacturing of components.

IPA Energy + Water Economics and Scottish Renewables (2010) also note that there is much untapped potential for companies which are not currently involved in the sector. Indeed, stage 1 of the National Renewables Infrastructure Plan (NRIP) identified a list of sites which could be developed to support offshore wind. These included (Scottish Enterprise and Highlands and Islands Enterprise, 2010a):

• Leith - integrated manufacturing;
• Dundee - distributed manufacturing and operation/maintenance;
• Nigg (note that this site has already been used to support the Beatrice Demonstration Project) - integrated manufacturing;
• Energy Park Fife at Methil (some supply chain investment has already occurred here) - further manufacturing;
• Aberdeen - distributed manufacturing and operation/maintenance;
• Hunterston - integrated manufacturing;
• Arnish - distributed manufacturing;
• Campbeltown/Machrihanish (some supply chain investment has already occurred here) - further manufacturing and operation/maintenance;
• Ardersier - integrated manufacturing;
• Peterhead - distributed manufacturing and operation/maintenance; and
• Kishorn - distributed manufacturing.

For the wave and tidal supply chain, site owners at Scrabster and Lyness in Scapa Flow are developing investment proposals so that there is support at these sites for companies awarded leases by The Crown Estate (Scottish Enterprise and Highlands and Islands Enterprise, 2010b).

C.8.3.5 Current economic value and employment

The total amount of electricity generated in Scotland in 2011 was 51,223 GWh, up from 49,992 GWh in 2010 ^[36] . Note however that over the past decade, the total generated has remained reasonably stable, with a high of 52,250 GWh in 2006 and a low of 48,080 GWh in 2007. Looking at the 2011 figure of 51,223 GWh, gross electricity consumption was 37,857 GWh whilst 13,366 GWh were exported from Scotland. Renewable energy generation was 13,728 GWh in 2011, representing 36% of total electricity generated. A comprehensive study by Scottish Renewables showed that during 2011/2012 the renewables industry in Scotland was the largest employer by generation type in Scotland. The industry supported 11,136 FTE jobs, with 943 of those in offshore wind energy and 521 in the wave and tidal energy sector ^[37] . This compares with a total for the energy sector as a whole (including water supply) of 42,000 people in 2008 (Scottish Government, 2010a). Although this latter figure represents 1.7% of total employee jobs in Scotland, it does not include those people who work in the supply chain, thus the actual figure ^[38] could be larger (Scottish Government, 2010a). Given the share of electricity generated by renewables, it is likely that employment related to renewable energy is also larger than the figure quoted, since this only relates to direct employment, and therefore does not consider indirect or knock-on jobs ^[39] .

C.8.3.6 Future trends

C8.3.6.1 Electricity Generation

It has been suggested that significant reductions in Scotland's electricity generating capacity would occur as coal and nuclear power stations closed and the importance of renewables grew (Allan et al, 2006). However, in the next few decades, Scotland has the capacity to install offshore renewable generation devices which could produce over 60GW of generating capacity (Scottish Development International et al, 2011). Renewable energy is being promoted as an economic opportunity (Verso Economic, 2011). Indeed, the Scottish Government's target is to meet the equivalent of 100% of gross annual electricity consumption from renewables by 2020 ^[40] . Scotland has some of the largest wave and tidal resources found anywhere in the world due to its large coastal exposure and there is the potential to practically and economically extract wave energy equating to around 13GW by 2020 ( DECC, 2012).

Based on the offshore wind, wave and tidal developments currently in planning, there is likely to be a significant increase in installed capacity in the period up to and beyond 2020 with potentially up to 9.2GW of offshore wind capacity, 720MW of wave capacity and 1GW of tidal energy capacity (see Table C8.2 above).

In addition, the Scottish Government is considering adopting further plans for offshore wind, wave and tidal development based on up to 28 Draft Plan Option areas (see C11). These Draft Plan Option areas are currently the subject of a Sustainability Appraisal being led by Marine Scotland, with a view to adopting plans for further offshore wind, wave and tidal development in 2014.

There are currently no specific targets for offshore renewables development although Scottish Government (2012) provides projections for 'offshore and onshore' wind of 13,000MW installed capacity by 2020 and 16,500MW installed capacity by 2030.

SeaGreen estimate that the first phase of the Firth of Forth Round 3 Offshore Wind Farm (1GW capacity across two wind farms) could inject £315m - £788m to the Scottish economy. Additional ongoing economic benefits would arise over the 25 year operating life of the wind farms. Development of an additional 2.5GW generation capacity in the Firth of Forth Zone would have a further very significant contribution to the Scottish economy. Furthermore, The Crown Estate announced in 2010 that it development rights had been awarded to a number of tidal energy companies for eleven wave and tidal stream energy projects within the Pentland Firth and Orkney waters. The projects have a total potential capacity of 1,600MW, with development expected to take place between 2014 and 2020 (TCE, 2011).

Such confirmed and forecasted developments in the renewables industry around Scotland will result in significant local economic benefits. The final report of the Scottish Islands Renewable Project (Baringa, 2013) predicts that by 2020 up to 392 FTE jobs could be created in the industry in the Western Isles, 463 in Shetland, 416 in Orkney and an additional 3,000 in the rest of Scotland and the UK. By 2030, the report predicts that these numbers could increase to 3,500 in the Western Isles, around 2,900 in Shetland and over 4,500 in Orkney.

C8.3.6.2 Marine biomass

There is currently no clear development plan for marine biofuels, although a number of trials are underway in Scotland (Black, 2011). The Crown Estate estimates that up to 1.5% of the seabed area could be used for macroalgae cultivation. This could give an annual biogas yield equivalent to around 5% of the natural gas consumed in the UK in 2009 (The Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology, 2011). A number of Scottish initiatives are currently underway to demonstrate the viability of producing biofuels from macroalgae and to facilitate the cost effective exploitation of currently under-utilised seaweed resources, notably the Seaweed Anaerobic Digestion and the BIOMARA programmes (FRM, 2010).

C8.3.6.3 Transmission Capacity

Scotland's transmission grid is mainly made up of 400 kV and 275 kV lines which join the major nuclear and coal-fired power stations in the central belt with the Peterhead plant in North East Scotland (National Grid, 2012). The Scottish grid is connected to the English grid with four transmission lines which form two double circuits; on the East, the circuit operates at 400 kV, whilst on the West part of the circuit operates at 400 kV and the remainder runs at 275 kV (ibid). Connection between Scotland and Northern Ireland is via the 450MW Moyle Interconnector which joins Ballantrae with Ballylumford (National Grid, 2012).

National Grid's Electricity Ten Year Statement (ETYS) indicates that there is likely to be a need for new infrastructure/reinforcement in many areas of Scotland to ensure that generated power can be transmitted to where it is required, for example, new transmission infrastructure will be necessary to connect power generation around the Western Isles, Orkney and Shetland to the mainland transmission network (National Grid, 2012). Indeed, problems have already occurred in some areas. Within Scotland, wind connection is restricted due to insufficient transmission capacity across the Scottish border, with 16 GW of wind awaiting connection in 2007 (Public Interest Research Centre, 2010). There are also issues with congestion in the power transmission network between the North and the South of the UK (Public Interest Research Centre, 2010). However, plans do exist to increase the capacity of transmission lines from Scotland to both England and Northern Ireland, as well as for a new major transmission line to Norway (Scottish Development International et al, 2011). In addition, there are plans for around 1,800MW of subsea lines along the West and East coasts of Scotland (Scottish Development International et al, 2011), whilst plans for a strategic set of grid upgrades across Scotland are already progressing (Scottish Government, 2010b). It is therefore likely that the future trend in transmission capacity will be upwards.

It should however be noted that transmission capacity is complicated by the variability in generation which renewables provide (Public Interest Research Centre, 2010). Despite this, it is stressed by the Scottish Executive (2005) that transmission capacity has to be built on the basis of firm development proposals, rather than on the expectation that new or developing technologies will eventually be put in place. It is anticipated that energy generation companies will collaborate rather than compete on grid connection to ensure economies of scale are achieved. This is likely to be critical given that the best sources of renewable energy are typically located at the edges of the current grid network, rather than the centre (Scottish Government, 2011).

C8.3.6.4 Supply Chain for Renewables

It is believed that there is already a strong supply chain due to the well-established and experienced oil and gas sector (Scottish Development International et al, 2011). However, although several locations can deal with operations and maintenance, the future requirements of the renewables supply chain cannot yet be fully met at any one of Scotland's ports ^[41] (Scottish Enterprise and Highlands and Islands Enterprise, 2010a; 2010b). Plans are currently being developed for offshore wind manufacturing facilities at Leith and Ardersier, together with the creation of an offshore wind O&M facility at Dundee.

For wave and tidal development, facilities have already been developed at Scrabster and Lyness to support developments within the Pentland Firth. Further local development is also likely to occur to support development on the West Coast.

C.8.4 Assumptions on Future Activity

It is assumed that coastal power stations will be decommissioned in accordance with current decommissioning timetables which are currently projected as Hunterston B 2016, Torness 2023, Peterhead (not known), and Longannet between 2020 and 2025. It is assumed that no new coastal power stations are built that interact with possible MPAs. It is assumed that no major marine biofuel sites are established within possible MPAs within the period of the assessment.

For offshore renewables, the following assumptions are made:

• The five sites identified in the current Plan for Offshore Wind in Scottish Territorial Waters (Scottish Government, 2011) that are being progressed will be built in line with current capacity and programme estimates;
• The two R3 OWF sites (Firth of Forth and Moray) will be built in line with current capacity and programme estimates;
• Wave and tidal sites with existing 'agreements for lease' will be developed in line with current capacity and programme estimates; and
• Development will also take place within the recently identified Draft Plan Option areas for offshore wind, wave and tidal development with assumed construction taking place between 2022 to 2025, based on the central case applied in the socio-economic assessment for offshore Renewable Sectoral Marine Plans ( ABPmer & RPA, 2013). This study assumes development of 7GW offshore wind, 1.25GW wave and 1.25GW tide between 2020 and 2030. Indicative cable routes to shore have also been assumed based on ABPmer & RPA (2013).

C.8.5 Potential Interactions with MPA Features

Coastal power stations may interact with Scottish NC MPA features as a result of abstraction and discharge of cooling water and associated discharges. In normal operation, the buoyant nature of cooling water discharges should mean that there is little if any interaction with seabed habitats beyond the immediate vicinity of the outfall. The discharge of substances associated with the operation of coastal power stations (cleaning agents, corrosion inhibitors, biocides, sewage) in accordance with permit conditions should not pose significant risks to MPA features. However, there is some potential for accidental releases to affect MPA features.

The planning, construction, operation and decommissioning of offshore renewables development has the potential to affect MPA features through a number of impact pathways. In particular, the construction of infrastructure on the seabed may directly or indirectly change existing seabed substrates and/or lead to smothering of sensitive habitats as a result of sediment plumes. Significant levels of underwater noise may be generated during construction, depending on the methodologies used. This may pose significant risks to hearing-sensitive species, particularly fish. The presence of structures above and below sea level may pose a collision risk to mobile species ( e.g. fish, birds). The transmission of electricity through seabed cables during the operational phase has the potential to introduce electromagnetic fields into the marine environment with the potential to affect electro- and magneto-sensitive species.

C.8.6 Assumptions on Cost Impacts for Scenarios

It is assumed that the impact of energy generation activities on MPA features will be managed through the existing marine licensing framework. Two scenarios ('lower' and 'upper') have been developed to capture the possible costs of potential MPAs to the energy generation sector. These scenarios include potential costs associated with additional assessments required to inform decisions on consent and licence applications and associated survey requirements.

It has been assumed that there will be no review of existing consents or licences, although where existing offshore energy installations apply for new consents or licences, these applications will be considered against the conservation objectives for features for which MPAs may have been designated.

The intermediate ('best') estimate for each site has been based on SNH/ JNCC current views on management options and judgements made by the study team. The assumptions do not pre-judge any future site-specific licensing decisions. After MPA designation, the management of activities in MPAs will be decided on a site-by-site basis and may differ from the assumptions in this assessment.

It is assumed that repowering and/or decommissioning of offshore renewables developments will take place after 25 years. This will occur outside of the 20 year assessment period for all developments that may interact with MPAs and has therefore not been considered further in the assessment.

It is not common practice for JNCC to advise post-licence monitoring for operations taking place within existing MPAs in relation to oil and gas developments. Offshore renewables is a developing industry and so it cannot be categorically stated that post-licence monitoring would not be requested. For the one possible MPA that overlaps with an area for windfarm development - Firth of Forth Banks Complex - the proposed protected features are offshore subtidal sands and gravels and ocean quahog and JNCC would not advise post-licence monitoring is required for these features based on its current understanding (P. Chaniotis, JNCC. pers. comm.). On this basis, and for the purposes of this assessment, it has been assumed that no post-licence monitoring will be required for offshore wind development within the Firth of Forth Banks Complex MPA proposal.

Management measures applied under the lower and upper scenarios are detailed below. Specific management measure assumptions for each scenario (including the intermediate scenario) are defined in the MPA Site Reports (Table 4, Appendix E).

Lower Scenario

• Additional costs will be incurred for licence applications in assessing potential impacts to MPA features within 1km of proposed energy generation activities; and
• Mitigation measures may be required for non- OSPAR/BAP features within 12nm ranging from:
  ˉ No additional mitigation required for maintenance of existing or construction of new assets beyond existing good practice; and
  ˉ Re-routeing of cables to avoid highly sensitive features.

Upper Scenario

• Additional costs will be incurred for new site licence applications in assessing potential impacts to MPA features within 5km of proposed energy generation activities;
• Additional survey costs will be incurred to inform new licence applications where development is within 1km of MPA features; and
• Mitigation measures may be required for some OSPAR/BAP features for which adequate protection is not currently achieved ^[42] and all non- OSPAR/BAP features ranging from:
  ˉ No additional mitigation required for maintenance of existing or construction of new assets beyond existing good practice;
  ˉ Use of graded scour protection where scour protection is required around infrastructure;
  ˉ Re-routeing of cables to avoid moderately and highly sensitive features; and
  ˉ Relocation of development within Draft Plan Option area.

C.8.7 Assessment Methods

Additional Licensing Costs

Where required, it is assumed that the additional costs will be as follows:

• Additional assessment costs for licence application - £12k per licence application (based on average cost cited in Annex H14 of Finding Sanctuary et al, 2012); and
• Additional survey costs - £5k per km ² for arrays or £5k per linear km (cables) (based on ABPmer, 2011).

Mitigation Measures

Where required, it is assumed that the following additional costs may be incurred:

• Grading of scour protection around foundations - additional cost of £0.35m per foundation (indicative estimate provided by Seagreen Wind Energy Limited, for offshore wind turbine foundations in Firth of Forth Round 3 zones)
• Re-routeing of cables - £1.01m per km (Annex H14 of Finding Sanctuary et al, 2012);
• Relocation of development within AoS - [site specific assessment]

Cost of Uncertainty and Delays

The designation of NC MPAs has the potential to increase the time taken to determine licence applications and to negatively affect investor confidence. It has not been possible to quantify these potential impacts.

C.8.8 Limitations

• Uncertainty concerning scale and location of future development for marine biofuels and offshore renewables;
• Uncertainty concerning management measures.

C.8.9 References

ABPmer, 2011. Quantifying the Potential Impact of a Marine Conservation Zone ( MCZ) Network on the Deployment of Offshore Renewables. Report to DECC.

ABPmer & RPA, 2013. Developing the Socio-Economic Evidence Base for Offshore Renewable Sectoral Marine Plans in Scottish Territorial Waters.

Allan, G., McGregor, P.G., Swales, J.K. and Turner, K., 2006. Impact of alternative energy generation technologies on the Scottish economy: an illustrative input-output analysis, Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Vol. 221 Part A: J. Power and Energy, pp243-254.

Baringa, 2013. Scottish Islands Renewable Project: Final Report. Report prepared for DECC and Scottish Government.

Black, K., 2011. Macroalgae for energy: What's going on in Scotland and Chile? Presentation to The Crown Estate, 31 March 2011.

Department for Energy and Climate Change, 2012. UK Renewable Energy Roadmap Update 2012. 27 ^th December 2012. Available online at https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/80246/11-02-13_UK_Renewable_Energy_Roadmap_Update_FINAL_DRAFT.pdf [Last Accessed 31/05/2013]

Finding Sanctuary, Irish Seas Conservation Zones, Net Gain and Balanced Seas, 2012. Impact

Assessment materials in support of the Regional Marine Conservation Zone Projects' Recommendations. Annex H14 Renewable Energy.

FRM, 2010. A review of initiatives and related R&D being undertaken in the UK and internationally regarding the use of macroalgae as a basis for biofuel production and other non-food uses relevant to Scotland. Report commissioned by the Marine Scotland, 79pp.

IPA Energy + Water Economics for Scottish Renewables, 2010. Scottish Offshore Wind: Creating an Industry to Scottish Renewables, Final report, 4th August 2010, available from the Scottish Renewables Internet site ( http://www.scottishrenewables.com/publications/scottish-offshore-wind-creating-industry/).

Kraan, S., 2011. Mass-cultivation of carbohydrate rich macroalgae, a possible solution for sustainable biofuel production. Mitigation and Adap.a.ion Strategies for Global Change. DOI 10.1007/s11027-010-9275-5

Kelly and Dworjanyn, 2008. The potential of marine biomass for anaerobic biogas production, The Crown Estate

Marine Scotland, 2009. Scottish Fish Farms Annual Production Survey, 2009.

National Grid, 2012. Electricity Ten Year Statement. November 2012.

Public Interest Research Centre on behalf of The Offshore Valuation Group, 2010. The Offshore Valuation, A valuation of the UK's offshore renewable energy resource. Report available from the Offshore Valuation Group Internet site ( http://www.offshorevaluation.org/).

RenewableUK, 2013. Wave and Tidal Energy in the UK. Conquering Challenges, Generating Growth. February 2013.

Scottish Development International, Highlands and Islands Enterprise, and Scottish Enterprise, 2011. Scottish Offshore Renewables Development Sites, West Coast Cluster, available from the Scottish Development International Internet site ( www.sdi.co.uk).

Scottish Enterprise & Highlands & Islands Enterprise, 2010a. National Renewables Infrastructure Plan. February 2010.

Scottish Enterprise & Highlands & Islands Enterprise, 2010b. National Renewables Infrastructure Plan Stage 2. July 2010.

Scottish Executive, 2005. Scotland's Renewable Energy Potential: realising the 2020 target, Future Generation Group Report 2005, available from the Scottish Government Internet site ( www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/Doc/54357/0013233.pdf).

Scottish Government, 2010a. Energy in Scotland: A Compendium of Scottish Energy Statistics and Information, Report produced December 2010.

Scottish Government, 2010b. Draft Electricity Generation Policy Statement 2010: Scotland - A Low Carbon Society, Report published by the Scottish Government, November 2010.

Scottish Government, 2011. 2020 Routemap for Renewable Energy in Scotland, available electronically on the Scottish Government Internet site ( http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2011/08/04110353/0).

Scottish Government, 2012. Draft Electricity Generation Policy Statement, available from: http://scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Business-Industry/Energy/EGPS2012/DraftEPGS2012

The Crown Estate, 2011. Wave and tidal energy in the Pentland Firth and Orkney waters: How the projects could be built. A report commissioned by The Crown Estate and prepared by BVG Associates. May 2011. Available online at http://www.thecrownestate.co.uk/media/71431/pentland-firth-how-the-projects-could-be-built.pdf [Last Accessed 31/05/2013.

The Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology, 2011. Biofuels from Algae. POSTNOTE 384.

Verso Economics, 2011. Worth the Candle? The Economic Impact of Renewable Energy Policy in Scotland and the UK, March 2011, available from the Verso Economics Internet site ( www.versoeconomics.com) .