Planning Scotland's Seas: 2013 - The Scottish Marine Protected Area Project – Developing the Evidence Base for Impact Assessments and the Sustainability Appraisal Final Report - Appendix E - Marine Site Reports

This is Appendix E for the pMPA Impact and Sustainability Report containing the detailed site by site reports. Published separately due to size.


Upper Loch Fyne and Loch Goil ( LFG)

Site Area (km 2): 94

Site Summary

Table 1. Summary of Proposed Protected Features, Data Confidence and Conservation Objectives [ LFG]
Proposed protected features
Biodiversity Features
Burrowed mud, flame shell beds, horse mussel beds, low or variable salinity habitats, sublittoral mud and mixed sediment communities, ocean quahog.

Geodiversity Features
None.

Site Description
The upper Loch Fyne and Loch Goil MPA proposal covers parts of two sea lochs in the inner Firth of Clyde on the west coast of Scotland.
Summary of confidence in presence, extent and condition of proposed protected features and conservation objectives
Proposed Protected Feature Estimated Area of Feature (by scenario) (km 2) Confidence in
Feature Presence
Confidence in
Feature Extent
Confidence in
Feature Condition
Conservation Objective and Risk
Biodiversity Features
Burrowed mud *Lower: 47.13
Intermediate: 47.50
Upper: 93.80
Yes (Seasearch surveys, 2005, 2006, 2011; nature-conservation surveys, 1989 - 2012) Yes Not known Recover
Flame shell beds Lower: 0.50
Intermediate: 0.50
Upper: 0.50
Yes (Seasearch surveys, 2005, 2006, 2011; nature-conservation surveys, 1989 - 2012; Marine Scotland surveys, 2012) Yes Not known TBC
Horse mussel beds Lower: 0.005
Intermediate: 0.005
Upper: 0.005
Yes (Seasearch surveys, 2005, 2006, 2011; nature-conservation surveys, 1989 - 2012) Yes Not known Recover
Low or variable salinity habitats Lower: 10.41
Intermediate: 10.41
Upper: 10.41
Partial - records from 1989 Partial Not known Conserve
Sublittoral mud and mixed sediment communities Lower: 48.02
Intermediate: 50.22
Upper: 93.80
Partial - records > 12 years old Partial Not known Conserve
Ocean quahog Lower: 48.15
Intermediate: 93.80
Upper: 93.80
Partial - observations of empty shells, video footage Partial Not known Conserve
Geodiversity Features
N/A
Key: * Estimated area based on best available data
References:
Area of Feature: GeMs
Confidence in feature presence and extent: SNH (2012p)

Summary of Costs and Benefits

Table 2a. Site-Specific Economic Costs on Human Activities arising from the Designation and Management of the Site as an MPA (over 2014 to 2033 inclusive) [ LFG]
Human Activity Cost Impact on Activity
Lower Estimate (£Million) Intermediate Estimate (£Million) Upper Estimate (£Million)
Quantified Economic Costs (Discounted)
Aquaculture (Finfish) 0.004 0.015 0.015
Aquaculture (Shellfish) See national costs See national costs See national costs
Commercial Fisheries* 0.000 0.080 0.122
Military See national costs See national costs See national costs
Ports and Harbours 0.010 0.014 0.014
Total Quantified Economic Costs 0.013 0.109 0.151
Non-Quantified Economic Costs
Aquaculture (Finfish)
  • Possible costs associated with potential future development; and
  • Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment
  • Possible costs associated with potential future development; and
  • Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment
  • Possible costs associated with potential future development; and
  • Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment
Aquaculture (Shellfish)
  • Possible costs associated with potential future development; and
  • Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment
  • Possible costs associated with potential future development; and
  • Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment
  • Possible costs associated with potential future development; and
  • Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment
Commercial Fisheries
  • None.
  • Displacement impacts.
  • Displacement impacts.
Military
  • See national assessment.
  • See national assessment.
  • See national assessment.
Ports and Harbours
  • Relocation of anchorages/ mooring areas away from features of high sensitivity; and
  • Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment.
  • Relocation of anchorages/ mooring areas away from features of high and medium sensitivity; and
  • Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment.
  • Relocation of anchorages/ mooring areas away from features of high and medium sensitivity; and
  • Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment.
Recreational Boating
  • None.
  • None,
  • Cost of anchorage relocation.
Note: For detailed information on economic cost impacts on activities, see Table 4.
* These estimates (present value of total change in GVA) assume zero displacement of fishing activity and hence are likely to overestimate the costs.
Table 2b. Site-Specific Public Sector Costs arising from the Designation and Management of the Site as an MPA (over 2014 to 2033 inclusive) [ LFG]
Description Public Sector Costs
Lower Estimate (£Million) Intermediate Estimate (£Million) Upper Estimate (£Million)
Quantified Public Sector Costs (Discounted)
Preparation of Marine Management Schemes 0.024 0.024 0.024
Preparation of Statutory Instruments None 0.004 0.004
Development of voluntary measures National assessment National assessment National assessment
Site monitoring National assessment National assessment National assessment
Compliance and enforcement National assessment National assessment National assessment
Promotion of public understanding National assessment National assessment National assessment
Regulatory and advisory costs associated with licensing decisions 0.001* 0.001* 0.001*
Total Quantified Public Sector Costs 0.025 0.029 0.029
Non-Quantified Public Sector Costs
None identified.
* Regulatory and advisory costs of finfish and shellfish aquaculture assessed at national level.
Table 2c. Summary of Social Impacts and Distribution of Quantified Impacts arising from the Designation and Management of the Site as an MPA (over 2014 to 2033 inclusive) [ LFG]
Key Areas of Social Impact Description Scale of Expected Impact across Scenarios, Average (mean no. of jobs affected) Distributional Analysis
Location Fishing Groups Predominantly Affected Social Groups Affected
Region Port Rural/ Urban/ Island Gear Types Most Affected Vessels most affected Crofters Ethnic minorities With disability or long term sick
Employment with consequent impacts on: Health, Crime, Environment, and Culture and Heritage Commercial fisheries - Loss of jobs (direct and indirect) Lower: 0 jobs Intermediate: 0 jobs Upper: 0 jobs West Campbeltown Impacts concentrated in rural coastal areas Nephrops trawls Lower: N/A Upper: >15m No Impact. No Impact. No Impact
Note: For detailed information on socio-economic impacts by sector, see Table 7a. For more detailed information on distributional impacts of quantified costs by sector see Tables 7b and 7c.
Table 2d. Site-Specific Benefits arising from the Designation and Management of the Site as an MPA (over 2014 to 2033 inclusive) [ LFG]
Benefit Description
Ecosystem Services Benefits (Moderate and High Benefits) Relevance Scale of Benefits
Non-use value of natural environment Moderate - High. Variety of protected features and contribution of the site to MPA network has non-use values. Nil - Moderate
Recreation Moderate - High. Including active dive sites, angling and recreational boating boats. Low - Moderate
Other Benefits
Tourism Higher biodiversity due to designation, and presence of designations, may attract more tourism activity to local economy.
Contribution to ecologically coherent network See report Section 7.5.
Note: For detailed information on ecosystem services benefits, see Tables 9 and 10. For detailed information on other benefits, see Table 5 (activities that would benefit) and Table 8 (contribution to ecologically-coherent network).

Summary of Overlaps and Interactions between Proposed Designated Features and Human Activities

Table 3. Overlaps and Potential Interactions between Features and Activities under different Scenarios, indicating need for Assessment of Cost Impacts on Human Activities from Designation of the Site as an MPA [ LFG]
Aggregates Aquaculture (Finfish) Aquaculture (Shellfish) Aviation Carbon Capture & Storage Coastal Protection Commercial Fisheries Energy Generation Military Activities Oil & Gas Ports & Harbours Power Interconnectors Recreational Boating Shipping Telecom Cables Tourism Water Sports
Biodiversity Features
Burrowed mud - L/I/U L/I/U - - - L/ I/U - L/I/U L/ I/ U L/I/U L/I/ U - - L/I/U L/I/U
Flame shell beds - - - - - - L/ I/U - L/I/U - - - - - L/I/U L/I/U
Horse mussel beds - - - - - - L/ I/U - L/I/U L/ I/ U - - - - L/I/U L/I/U
Low or variable salinity habitats - - - - - - L/ I/U - L/I/U L/ I/ U - L/I/ U - - L/I/U L/I/U
Sublittoral mud and mixed sediment communities - L/I/U U - - - L/ I/U - L/I/U L/ I/ U L/I/U L/I/ U - - L/I/U L/I/U
Ocean quahog - L/I/U L/I/U - - - L/ I/U - L/I/U L/ I/ U L/I/U L/I/ U - - L/I/U L/I/U
Geodiversity Features
N/A
Note: L = Lower Scenario; I = Intermediate Scenario; U = Upper Scenario. Normal font indicates that there is an overlap between the activity and proposed designated feature under that scenario, bold indicates that the overlap results in a potential interaction between the activity and proposed designated feature that has resulted in cost impacts under that scenario.
For detail of management measures assessed under each scenario for each activity, and results of the cost estimates, see Table 4.

Human Activity Summaries

Human activities that would be impacted by designation of the site as an MPA

Table 4a. Aquaculture (Finfish) [ LFG]

There are three finfish farms within the boundary of the LFG proposed MPA, Ardcastle Bay, Furnace Quarry and Quarry Point. Furnace Quarry directly overlaps with the Burrowed Mud feature under all scenarios (lower, intermediate and upper). Ardcastle Bay and Quarry Point overlap with this feature under the upper scenario only. There are two additional finfish farms within 1km of the feature under all scenarios (Evanachan Marine Hatchery and Evanachan Salt Water).

Furnace Quarry directly overlaps with Ocean Quahog feature under all scenarios. Ardcastle Bay and Quarry Point overlap with this feature under the intermediate and upper scenarios only.

There are two additional finfish farms within 1km of the feature under all scenarios (Evanachan Marine Hatchery and Evanachan Salt Water).

Furnace Quarry directly overlaps with the Sublittoral mud and mixed sediment feature under all scenarios. Ardcastle Bay and Quarry Point overlap with this feature under the intermediate and upper scenarios only. There are two additional finfish farms within 1km of the feature under all scenarios (Evanachan Marine Hatchery and Evanachan Salt Water).

There is no public information on potential future development within the proposed MPA. In the absence of information on potential future developments, the assessment has focused on the costs associated with obtaining new CAR licences. A national assessment of the costs of obtaining planning permission for new developments is provided separately.

Economic Costs on the Activity of Designation of the Site as an MPA
Lower Estimate Intermediate Estimate Upper Estimate
Assumptions for cost impacts
  • Additional assessment costs for new CAR licence applications to assess impacts to MPA features.
  • Additional assessment costs for new CAR licence applications to assess impacts to MPA features; and
  • Additional survey costs incurred once every 10 years (2019 & 2029) to inform new CAR licence applications.
  • Additional assessment costs for new CAR licence applications to assess impacts to MPA features; and
  • Additional survey costs incurred once every 10 years (2019 & 2029) to inform new CAR licence applications.
Description of one-off costs
  • Additional assessment costs for CAR licence once every 10 years (2019, 2029) of £500 per CAR licence application.
  • Additional assessment costs for CAR licence once every 10 years (2019, 2029) of £500 per CAR licence application; and
  • Additional baseline visual survey costs -£1.6k per CAR licence application.
  • Additional assessment costs for CAR licence once every 10 years (2019, 2029) of £500 per CAR licence application; and
  • Additional baseline visual survey costs -£1.6k per CAR licence application.
Description of recurring costs
  • None.
  • None.
  • None.
Description of non-quantified costs
  • Possible costs associated with potential future development. A national assessment of additional assessment and survey costs for potential future development is provided separately; and
  • Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment.
  • Possible costs associated with potential future development. A national assessment of additional assessment and survey costs for potential future development is provided separately; and
  • Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment.
  • Possible costs associated with potential future development. A national assessment of additional assessment and survey costs for potential future development is provided separately; and
  • Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment.
Quantified Costs on the Activity of Designation of the Site as an MPA
Total costs (2014-2033) 0.005 0.021 0.021
Average annual costs <0.001 0.001 0.001
Present value of total costs (2014-2033) 0.004 0.015 0.015
Total costs = Sum of one-off costs and recurring costs for the site summed over the 20 year period.
Average annual costs = Total costs divided by the total number of years under analysis ( i.e. 20).
Present value of total costs = Total costs discounted to their current value, using a discount rate of 3.5%.
Table 4b. Aquaculture (Shellfish) [ LFG]

There are two shellfish aquaculture sites within the boundary of the LFG proposed MPA, Loch Fyne and 'Site 1'. Both sites overlap with the Burrowed Mud feature under the high scenario only. Burrowed mud is present within 1km of the sites under all scenarios.

Both sites directly overlap with the Ocean Quahog feature under the intermediate and upper scenarios. Ocean quahog is within 1km of the sites under all scenarios.

Both sites overlap with the Sublittoral mud and mixed sediment communities feature under the high scenario only. This feature is also within 1km of the sites for the high scenario only.

There is no public information on potential future development within the proposed MPA. In the absence of infomation on potential future developments, no site specific assessment has been possible. A national assessment of the costs of obtaining planning permission for new developments is provided separately.

Economic Costs on the Activity of Designation of the Site as an MPA
Lower Estimate Intermediate Estimate Upper Estimate
Assumptions for cost impacts
  • N/A
  • N/A
  • N/A
Description of one-off costs
  • N/A
  • N/A
  • N/A
Description of recurring costs
  • N/A
  • N/A
  • N/A
Description of non-quantified costs
  • Possible costs associated with potential future development. A national assessment of additional assessment and survey costs for potential future development is provided separately; and
  • Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment.
  • Possible costs associated with potential future development. A national assessment of additional assessment and survey costs for potential future development is provided separately; and
  • Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment.
  • Possible costs associated with potential future development. A national assessment of additional assessment and survey costs for potential future development is provided separately; and
  • Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment.
Quantified Costs on the Activity of Designation of the Site as an MPA
Total costs (2014-2033) See national costs See national costs See national costs
Average annual costs See national costs See national costs See national costs
Present value of total costs (2014-2033) See national costs See national costs See national costs
Total costs = Sum of one-off costs and recurring costs for the site summed over the 20 year period.
Average annual costs = Total costs divided by the total number of years under analysis ( i.e. 20).
Present value of total costs = Total costs discounted to their current value, using a discount rate of 3.5%.
Table 4c. Commercial Fisheries (assuming zero displacement of fishing activity) [ LFG]

According to VMS-based estimates and ICES rectangle landings statistics, Nephrops trawls, dredges, pelagic trawls and other gears (over-15m) and pots, nephrops trawls, hand fishing and other gears (under-15m vessels) operate within the LFG proposed MPA. The value of catches from the LFG area was £36,900 (over-15m vessels) and £56,100 (under-15m vessels, indicated from ICES rectangle landings data) (average for 2007-2011, 2012 prices). Landings from the over-15m vessels are made predominantly into Tarbet (95% by value). For the over-15m fleet, nephrops trawlers operated in particular in the southern and central and part of the proposed MPA across all the features in this area.

Provisional ScotMap data indicate that the annual average earnings from the LFG proposed MPA was £78,200, with over 60% from Nephrops pots and 28% from Nephrops trawls. It is likely that the ICES rectangle estimate for the cost impact on <15m Nephrops trawls is an under-estimate; the value from ScotMap for the whole MPA area is £0.02 million (compared to £0.007 million from ICES rectangle data). The coverage for ScotMap interviews in the region was 63.8% (total value of reported landings from the Fisheries Information Network for those vessels included in the ScotMap value analysis expressed as a percentage of the total reported landings for all vessels <15m). Therefore the ScotMap estimate is likely to under-represent the value of fishing by under-15m vessels, and the spatial representation of the value of fishing is less robust than in regions where coverage is higher.

VMS data indicate that there are no foreign vessels fishing within the LFG proposed MPA.

Management measures for the scenarios have been developed based on the sensitivity and vulnerability of the features to the pressures caused by different gear types and SNH recommendations.

Unlike most other sectors, the potential cost of designation on commercial fisheries is a loss or displacement of current (and future) output, caused by restrictions on fishing activities. Any decrease in output will, all else being equal, reduce the Gross Value Added ( GVA) generated by the sector and have knock-on effects on the GVA generated by those industries that supply commercial fishing vessels. The costs estimates for this sector have therefore been estimated in terms of GVA.

GVA estimates have been generated by applying fleet segment-specific 'GVA/total income' ratios to the value of landings affected. The GVA ratios have been calculated using data on total income and GVA from the Sea Fish Industry Authority Multi-year Fleet Economic Performance Dataset (published March 2013). Further details on the GVA ratios and the methodology for estimating GVA and employment impacts applied are presented in Appendix C7.

It is important to note that all costs presented below assume that all affected landings are lost, that is, there is no displacement of fishing activity to alternative fishing grounds. In reality, some displacement is likely to occur and hence the cost, GVA and employment impacts presented in this table are likely to overestimate the costs.

Economic Costs on the Activity of Designation of the Site as an MPA
Lower Estimate Intermediate Estimate Upper Estimate
Assumptions for cost impacts
  • No cost impacts expected.
  • Closure to beam trawls and dredges (gears likely to impact on ocean quahog) across the ocean quahog feature extent (full extent of proposed MPA); and
  • Closure to other mobile bottom-contact gears (whitefish, nephrops and other trawls and seines) across horse mussel and flame shell beds;
  • Closure to mobile bottom-contact gear across burrowed mud feature (due to recover objective); and
  • Limit further expansion of static gear.
  • Closure to mobile bottom-contact gears (whitefish, nephrops and other trawls and seines, beam trawls and dredges) across full extent of MPA; and
  • Limit further expansion of static gear.
Description of one-off costs
  • None.
  • None.
  • None.
Description of recurring costs
  • None.
  • Loss of >15m fishing income (annual values, £ million, 2012 prices):
  • Nephrops trawls (0.007).
  • Loss of <15m fishing income (annual values, £ million, 2012 prices):
  • Whitefish trawls (<0.001);
  • Nephrops trawls (0.003);
  • Other trawls (<0.001);
  • Dredges (0.002).
  • Loss of >15m fishing income (annual values, £ million, 2012 prices):
  • Nephrops trawls (0.009).
  • Loss of <15m fishing income (annual values, £ million, 2012 prices):
  • Whitefish trawls (<0.001);
  • Nephrops trawls (0.007);
  • Other trawls (<0.001);
  • Dredges (0.002).
Description of non-quantified costs
  • None.
  • Displacement effects, including conflict with other fishing vessels, environmental impacts in targeting new areas, longer steaming times and increased fuel costs, changes in costs and earnings, gear development and adaptation costs, and additional quota costs.
  • Displacement effects, including conflict with other fishing vessels, environmental impacts in targeting new areas, longer steaming times and increased fuel costs, changes in costs and earnings, gear development and adaptation costs, and additional quota costs.
Quantified Costs on the Activity of Designation of the Site as an MPA
Total costs (2014-2033) 0.000 0.230 0.371
Average annual costs 0.000 0.011 0.019
Present value of total costs (2014-2033) 0.000 0.169 0.273
Economic Impacts
Total change in GVA (2014-2033) 0.000 0.109 0.166
Average annual change to GVA 0.000 0.005 0.008
Present value of total change in GVA (2014-2033) 0.000 0.080 0.122
Direct and Indirect reduction in Employment 0.0 jobs 0.1 jobs 0.2 jobs
Total costs = Sum of one-off costs and recurring costs for the site summed over the 20 year period.
Average annual costs = Total costs divided by the total number of years under analysis ( i.e. 20).
Present value of total costs = Total costs discounted to their current value, using a discount rate of 3.5%.
Total change in GVA (2014-2033) = The change in direct GVA in the sector for the site summed over the 20 year period.
Average annual change to GVA = Total change in direct GVA in the sector for the site divided by the total number of years under analysis ( i.e. 20).
Present value of total change in GVA (2014-2033) = Total change in direct GVA in the sector for the site discounted to current value, using a discount rate of 3.5%.
Direct and Indirect reduction in Employment = The average (mean) reduction in direct employment in the sector plus the indirect reduction in employment on the sector's suppliers.
Table 4d. Military [ LFG]

One coastal military location (Loch Goil noise range) overlaps with the LFG proposed MPA boundary. The Loch Goil noise range overlaps with low or variable salinity habitats (all scenarios), sublittoral mud and mixed sediment communities (intermediate and upper scenarios), ocean quahog (intermediate and upper scenarios) and burrowed mud (upper scenario).

Nine military practice areas (Minard (X5602), Fyne (X5603), Goil (X5604) and Tarbert (X5517); and five submarine exercise areas) overlap with the LFG proposed MPA.

The military practice areas Minard (X5602), Fyne (X5603) and Goil (X5604) overlap with burrowed mud (all scenarios), ocean quahog (all scenarios) and sublittoral mud and mixed sediments (all scenarios). Minard (X5602) also overlaps with flame shell beds (all scenarios) and horse mussel beds (all scenarios), whilst Goil (X5604) overlaps with horse mussel beds (all scenarios) and low or variable salinity habitats (all scenarios).

The military practice area Tarbert (X5517) overlaps with ocean quahog (intermediate and upper scenario), burrowed mud (upper scenario) and sublittoral mud and mixed sediment communities (upper scenario).

The five submarine exercise areas overlap with the features of the LFG proposed MPA to varying degrees under the different extent scenarios.

The features and associated habitats which overlap with military activities have not been described as vulnerable to MoD activities in this proposed MPA. It is assumed that management relating to MoD activity will be coordinated through the MoD's Maritime Environmental Sustainability Appraisal Tool ( MESAT) which the MoD uses to assist in meeting its environmental obligations. This process will include operational guidance to reduce significant impacts of military activities on MPAs. It is assumed that the MoD will incur additional costs in adjusting MESAT and other MoD environmental assessment tools in order to consider whether its activities will impact on the conservation objectives of MPAs and also incur additional costs in adjusting electronic charts to consider MPAs. However, these costs will be incurred at national level and hence no site-specific cost assessments have been made.

Economic Costs on the Activity of Designation of the Site as an MPA
Lower Estimate Intermediate Estimate Upper Estimate
Assumptions for cost impacts
  • See National Assessment.
  • See National Assessment.
  • See National Assessment.
Description of one-off costs
Description of recurring costs
Description of non-quantified costs
Quantified Costs on the Activity of Designation of the Site as an MPA
Total costs (2014-2033) See national costs See national costs See national costs
Average annual costs See national costs See national costs See national costs
Present value of total costs (2014-2033) See national costs See national costs See national costs
Total costs = Sum of one-off costs and recurring costs for the site summed over the 20 year period.
Average annual costs = Total costs divided by the total number of years under analysis ( i.e. 20).
Present value of total costs = Total costs discounted to their current value, using a discount rate of 3.5%.
Table 4e. Ports and Harbours [ LFG]

There are three ports/harbours (Furnace, Inverary and Portincaple) within the LFG proposed MPA boundary. Furnace overlaps with burrowed mud, ocean quahog aggregations and sublittoral mud and mixed sediment communities under all scenarios. Inverary overlaps with burrowed mud (upper scenario only), ocean quahog (intermediate and upper scenarios) and sublittoral mud and mixed sediment communities (upper scenario). Portincaple overlaps with burrowed mud, horse mussel beds, low or variable salinity habitats, ocean quahog aggregations and sublittoral mud and mixed sediment communities under all scenarios.

There are five anchorages/mooring areas within the LFG proposed MPA boundary. Two anchorages/mooring areas overlap burrowed mud under the high scenario whilst two further anchorages/mooring areas overlap ocean quahog and sublittoral mud and mixed sediment communities under all scenarios. The remaining anchorage/mooring area overlaps ocean quahog and burrowed mud under the intermediate and upper scenarios only ( i.e. no overlap under lower scenario). Costs may be expected to relocate anchorages/mooring areas to less sensitive areas, although any associated costs are non-quantifiable.

Economic Costs on the Activity of Designation of the Site as an MPA
Lower Estimate Intermediate Estimate Upper Estimate
Assumptions for cost impacts
  • Additional licensing costs for small port developments (up to 2 in total); and
  • Relocate anchorages/mooring areas away from all features with a high sensitivity.
  • Additional licensing costs for small port developments (up to 3 in total); and
  • Relocate anchorages/mooring areas away from all features with a high or medium sensitivity. If not possible to relocate away from medium-sensitivity features, relocate to more representative areas.
  • Additional licensing costs for small port developments (up to 3 in total); and
  • Relocate anchorages/mooring areas away from all features with a high or medium sensitivity. If not possible to relocate away from medium-sensitivity features, relocate to more representative areas.
Description of one-off costs
  • Additional assessment costs for licence application - £6.75k per licence application. Application estimated for submission in 2024 (Furnace and Portincaple).
  • Additional assessment costs for licence application - £6.75k per licence application. Application estimated for submission in 2024 (Furnace, Inverary and Portincaple).
  • Additional assessment costs for licence application - £6.75k per licence application. Application estimated for submission in 2024 (Furnace, Inverary and Portincaple).
Description of recurring costs
  • None.
  • None.
  • None.
Description of non-quantified costs
  • Relocation of anchorages/mooring areas away from features of high sensitivity; and
  • Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment.
  • Relocation of anchorages/mooring areas away from features of high and medium sensitivity; and
  • Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment.
  • Relocation of anchorages/mooring areas away from features of high and medium sensitivity; and
  • Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment.
Quantified Costs on the Activity of Designation of the Site as an MPA
Total costs (2014-2033) 0.014 0.020 0.020
Average annual costs 0.001 0.001 0.001
Present value of total costs (2014-2033) 0.010 0.014 0.014
Total costs = Sum of one-off costs and recurring costs for the site summed over the 20 year period.
Average annual costs = Total costs divided by the total number of years under analysis ( i.e. 20).
Present value of total costs = Total costs discounted to their current value, using a discount rate of 3.5%.
Table 4f. Recreational Boating [ LFG]

There is one medium traffic cruising route within the LFG MPA proposal boundary that overlaps with features proposed for designation, although cruising routes are not expected to incur any management or assessment costs.

Under the upper scenario there are 21 anchorages (and associated 100m buffer zones) within the MPA proposal boundary that overlap with proposed protected features. Overlaps with burrowed mud, low and variable salinity habitats, ocean quahog and sublittoral mud and mixed sediment communities have been identified. A further 21 Crown Estate mooring points are present within the proposed MPA under the upper scenario and ten larger mooring areas. A number of individual mooring points are located within these larger mooring areas within the proposed MPA, although it is expected that this may be an underestimate and additional moorings are found within the areas that are not represented by the data.The Crown Estate moorings show overlaps with ocean quahog, burrowed mud, sublittoral mud and mixed sediment communities and low and variable salinity habitats.

Under the intermediate and lower scenarios, SNH have identified two recreational anchorages and three mooring areas owned by The Crown Estate that overlap with proposed protected features. Point records of low and variable salinity habitats and horse mussel beds occur between the two anchorages. The Crown Estate's mooring areas also overlap with multiple records of burrowed mud and sublittoral mud and mixed sediment communities, and one overlaps with five records of ocean quahog.

Economic Costs on the Activity of Designation of the Site as an MPA
Lower Estimate Intermediate Estimate Upper Estimate
Assumptions for cost impacts
  • No additional management required. Burrowed mud has medium sensitivity to surface abrasion associated with anchoring although effects are highly localised and mostly relate to demersal fishing activity. Sublittoral mud and mixed sediment communities may have some degree of sensitivity to pressures associated with moorings, although these sediments can be more mobile in nature and therefore more tolerant to such pressures. Ocean quahog has medium sensitivity to subsurface abrasion/penetration associated with mooring activity, although this activity is localised.
  • No additional management required. Burrowed mud has medium sensitivity to surface abrasion associated with anchoring although effects are highly localised and mostly relate to demersal fishing activity. Sublittoral mud and mixed sediment communities may have some degree of sensitivity to pressures associated with moorings, although these sediments can be more mobile in nature and therefore more tolerant to such pressures. Ocean quahog has medium sensitivity to subsurface abrasion/penetration associated with mooring activity, although this activity is localised.
  • Relocate all anchorages/moorings away from all features with a high or medium sensitivity to surface abrasion pressure associated with anchoring: burrowed mud and ocean quahog. If not possible to relocate away from features, relocate to less sensitive or more representative areas.
Description of one-off costs
  • None.
  • None.
  • None.
Description of recurring costs
  • None.
  • None.
  • None.
Description of non-quantified costs
  • None.
  • None.
  • Cost of anchorage relocation.

Human activities that would benefit from designation of the site as an MPA

Table 5. Human Activities that would Benefit from Designation of the Site as an MPA [ LFG]
Activity Description Lower Estimate Intermediate Estimate Upper Estimate
Tourism Coastal areas are well represented when considering the locations of various tourist related sites within Scotland with a range of site types present in all regions including the West. Where significant impacts to recreational boating or water sports have been identified for the site, there could also be consequential impacts on tourism. Tourism may benefit from the designation of the MPA as an added attraction to the destination. In addition, there may also be indirect benefits to tourism as a result of benefits to some water sports activities, for example, recreational angling and diving. The intermediate management measures applied to sector activities will result in an increase of the beneficial impacts seen in the lower estimate. The upper management measures applied to sector activities will result in an increase of the beneficial impacts seen in the lower and intermediate estimates.
Water Sports - Scuba Diving There are 18 dive locations within LFG proposed MPA, one wreck dive site (Jacobina), one scenic boat dive site (Eilean Fraoch Wall) and sixteen shore dive locations along the coasts of both Loch Fyne and Loch Goil. All 18 dive locations overlap with one or more features for both the upper and intermediate scenarios. Only three shore dive locations overlap with features ('Low or variable salinity habitats', 'Burrowed Mud', 'Ocean Quahog' and 'Sublittoral mud and mixed sediment communities') under the lower scenario. No management restrictions upon this activity are required. The added protection offered by an MPA designation and management measures placed upon sector activities may increase the aesthetic attraction of the dive sites through an improved marine ecosystem and a reduction in degradation to the wreck sites. The intermediate management measures applied to sector activities will result in an increase of the beneficial impacts seen in the lower estimate. The upper management measures applied to sector activities will result in an increase of the beneficial impacts seen in the lower and intermediate estimates.
Water Sports - Sea Angling Sea angling is carried out along most of the Scottish coastline within 6nm ( SSACN). LFG proposed MPA is a coastal site and is located wholly within 6nm of the UK coastline. Therefore sea angling overlaps with all features and there corresponding extents within the proposed MPA. No management restrictions upon this activity are required. Sea anglers could benefit from any on-site positive effects resulting from the MPA designation and corresponding management restrictions on sector activities including an increase in the size and diversity of species which in turn is expected to increase the attraction of a site for anglers (Fletcher et al. 2012). The intermediate management measures applied to sector activities will result in an increase of the beneficial impacts seen in the lower estimate. The upper management measures applied to sector activities will result in an increase of the beneficial impacts seen in the lower and intermediate estimates.

Human activities that are present but which would be unaffected by designation of the site as an MPA

Table 6. Human Activities that are Present but which would be Unaffected by Designation of the Site as an MPA [ LFG]
Activity Description
Power Interconnectors Three existing power interconnectors overlap with the LFG proposed MPA. All three power interconnectors overlap with ocean quahog (all scenarios) and sublittoral mud and mixed sediment communities (all scenarios). In addition the power interconnectors overlap with burrowed mud (upper scenario only) and occur within 1km of burrowed mud under all scenarios. No cost impacts are foreseen, as it is assumed that there will be no review of the existing consents.
Water Sports - Dinghy Sailing There is one dinghy sailing centre (The Lochgoilhead Centre) located within LFG proposed MPA. Water sports activities including dinghy sailing are not assessed as requiring any additional management measures. It is also considered that no additional benefit to dinghy sailing from management measures applied to other activities will occur.

Social and Distributional Analysis of Impacts from Designation of the Site as an MPA

Table 7a. Social Impacts Associated with Quantified and Non-Quantified Economic Costs [ LFG]
Sector Potential Economic Impacts Economic Costs and GVA ( PV) Area of Social Impact Affected Mitigation Significance of Social impact
Commercial Fisheries Loss of traditional fishing grounds with consequent loss in landings, value of landings and hence GVA Annual Average Loss in Value of Landings*:
Lower: £0.00m
Intermediate: £ 0.01m
Upper: £0.02m

Annual Average Loss in GVA (direct and indirect)*:
Lower: £0.00m
Intermediate: <£0.01m
Upper: <£0.01m
Culture and heritage - impact on traditions from loss of fishing grounds. Health: x (for individuals affected who do not find alternative employment)
If the loss in GVA significant enough, risk of job losses (direct and indirect) Job Losses*:
Lower: 0.0 jobs
Intermediate: 0.1 jobs
Upper: 0.2 jobs
A reduction in employment can generate a wide range of social impacts which, in turn, can generate a range of short and long term costs for wider society and the public purse:
  • Healt h (increase in illness, mental stress, loss of self esteem
and risk of depression);
  • Increase in crime; and
  • Reduction in f u ture emp lo y me n t prospects/future earnings.
Support to retrain those affected and for the promotion of new small businesses in fisheries dependent areas.
Displacement Effects Not quantified Quantified impact on jobs assume worst case scenario ( i.e. no redistribution of effort). In reality displacement effects likely to occur with socio-economic consequences:
  • Empl o y m e nt - reduced employment due to changes in costs and earnings profile of vessels ( e.g. increased fuel costs, gear development and adaption costs, additional quota costs);
  • Conflict/Loss of social cohesion - diminishing fishing grounds may increase conflict with other vessels/gear types, increase social tensions within fishing communities and lead to a loss of social cohesion among fleets. Could also lead to increased operating costs as a result of lost or damaged gear. Equally, gear conflict could reduce where gears are restricted/prohibited;
  • Healt h - increased risks to the safety of fishers and vessels and increased stress due to moving to lesser known areas;
  • E n v ironmental - increased impact in targeting new areas, longer streaming times and increased fuel consumption; and
  • Cul t ur e a nd her i tag e - change in traditional fishing patterns/ activities.
x
Impacts: xxx - significant negative effect; xx - possible negative effects; x - minimal negative effect, if any; 0 - no noticeable effect expected.
* These estimates assume zero displacement of fishing activity and hence are likely to overestimate the costs.
Table 7b. Distribution of Quantified Economic Costs for Commercial Fisheries and Fish Processors (assuming zero displacement of fishing activity) - Location, Age and Gender [ LFG]
Sector/Impact Location Age Gender
Region Ports* Rural, Urban, Coastal or Island Children Working Age Pensionable Age Male Female

Commercial Fisheries

Reduction in landed value, GVA and employment

x

West

x

Largest employment impacts in:

Campbeltown (100%)

x

Coastal Rural

0 0 0

0

0.02-0.2 job losses

0

Fish Processors

Reduction in local landings at landing ports

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Impacts: xxx - significant negative effect; xx - possible negative effects; x - minimal negative effect, if any; 0 - no noticeable effect expected.
* Based on value of landings by home port affected under intermediate scenario.
Table 7c. Distribution of Quantified Economic Costs for Commercial Fisheries and Fish Processors (assuming zero displacement of fishing activity) - Fishing Groups, Income Groups and Social Groups [ LFG]
Sector/Impact Fishing Groups Income Groups Social Groups
Vessel Category <15m >15m* Gear Types/Sector* 10% Most Deprived Middle 80% 10% Most Affluent Crofters Ethnic minorities With Disability or Long-term Sick

Commercial Fisheries

Reduction in landed value, GVA and employment

Lower: N/A Upper: >15m Nephrops trawls 0 0

x

Information only available on average incomes not the distribution of income. Therefore, not clear whether this group will be affected.

0 0 0

Fish Processors

Reduction in local landings at landing ports

Shellfish: xxx Demersal: xx Pelagic: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Impacts: xxx - significant negative effect; xx - possible negative effects; x - minimal negative effect, if any; 0 - no noticeable effect expected.
* Based on costs to gear types/sectors and vessel categories affected under the intermediate scenario.

Potential Contribution of the Site to an Ecologically-Coherent Network

Table 8. Overview of Features Proposed for Designation and how these contribute to an Ecologically Coherent Network of MPAs [ LFG]
Feature Name Representation Replication Linkages Geographic Range
and Variation
Resilience
Burrowed mud Provides representation of fireworks anemone and burrowing megafauna and mud volcano worm in OSPAR Region III. Represents one of two areas of fireworks anemone within OSPAR Region III and one of two areas of burrowing megafauna and mud volcano worm in OSPAR Region III. Not currently understood for burrowed mud. Burrowed mud occurs within a range of environments. All records of this feature of burrowed mud are from OSPAR Region III. The recommended MPA areas would provide representation for the geographic range of the fireworks anemone and burrowing megafauna and mud volcano worm types of burrowed mud. No information available.
Flame shell beds Provides representation for flame shell beds in OSPAR Region III. Represents one of five recommended areas for flame shell beds in OSPAR Region III. Not currently understood for flame shell beds. All records of flame shell beds are from OSPAR Region III. The recommended MPA areas would to some extent reflect the geographic range of flame shell beds in Scottish seas. Not listed by OSPAR as threatened and/or declining, although there is evidence of decline. The MPA may increase resilience.
Horse mussel beds Provides representation for horse mussel beds in OSPAR Region III. Represents one of four recommended areas for horse mussel beds in Scottish seas. Not currently understood for horse mussel beds. Horse mussel beds are listed as threatened and/or declining by the OSPAR commission. The MPA may increase resilience.
Low or variable salinity habitats Provides representation for low or variable salinity habitats in OSPAR Region III. Represents one of two recommended areas for low or variable salinity habitats in OSPAR Region III. Not currently understood for low or variable salinity habitats. This MPA represents a distinct contribution to coverage of the geographic range. Not listed by OSPAR as threatened and/or declining. Not recommended that a greater proportion be included in the MPA network.
Sublittoral mud and mixed sediment communities No information available.
Ocean quahog No information available.
JNCC (pers. comm.); SNH and JNCC. (2012). Assessment of the potential adequacy of the Scottish MPA network for MPA search features: summary of the application of the stage 5 selection guidelines.
Available online from: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/marine/marine-environment/mpanetwork/engagement/270612.

Anticipated Benefits to Ecosystem Services

Table 9. Summary of Ecosystem Services Benefits arising from Designation of the Site as an MPA [16] [ LFG]
Services Relevance
to Site
Baseline Level Estimated Impacts of Designation Value Weighting Scale of Benefits Confidence
Lower Intermediate Upper
Fish for human consumption High. Support food web and contain nursery habitats. Stocks not at MSY, maerl beds need to recover Nil Low, protection of shellfish beds can contribute to maintenance and recovery of stocks - benefits are higher under stronger protection measures but ecosystem response is uncertain. High. Commercially valuable species supported. Nil - Low Moderate, uncertainty mainly in response of habitats to management measures.
Fish for non-human consumption Stocks reduced from potential maximum
Gas and climate regulation Minimal Low. No benthic plant communities Nil Minimal Low Moderate, social cost of carbon Minimal Moderate
Natural hazard protection Low Low, from low or variable salinity habitats Nil Low Low Nil - Minimal High
Regulation of pollution Moderate, benthic communities regulate pollution Low, major water quality issues to be dealt with through WFD Nil Low, if protection allows recovery of habitats, service could increase Low, water quality in this area not affecting human welfare Minimal High
Non-use value of natural environment Moderate - High, variety of protected features, and contribution of the site to MPA network, have non-use value. Non-use value of the site may decline Nil Low - Moderate, protection of features of site from minor decline Moderate - protection of features of site from decline, and/or allowing some recovery Moderate - range of features means strong contribution to halting decline of marine biodiversity. Nil - Moderate Low - Moderate, extent of features, responses to management measures, and value to society all uncertain
Recreation Moderate - High, including active dive sites, angling and recreational boating routes Moderate - High, including tourism activities. Angling may be reduced by damage to features Nil Low - Moderate, Angling benefits and biodiversity encountered by divers and recreational boaters are protected from possible decline, and could recover under upper scenario. Designation could enhance tourism activity. Moderate, extensive activities, but substitutes are available. Low - Moderate, enhancement of activities through improved angling and visitor experiences. Nil - Moderate, extent of change from management measures uncertain
Research and Education Low Low, small number of biological features have research value and there are substitutes Nil Low, protection of key characteristics of site from decline, improving future research opportunities Low for individual features. Moderate for opportunity to understand response of wide range of features to management Low Low - Moderate, extent to which research uses site in future uncertain
Total value of changes in ecosystem services Nil for lower scenario, Moderate for upper scenarios Low - Moderate Low

Human Activities which Occur within the Proposed MPA Upper Loch Fyne and Loch Goil

Fishing Activities which Occur within the Proposed MPA Upper Loch Fyne and Loch Goil

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