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Publication - Impact assessment

Planning Scotland's Seas: 2013 - The Scottish Marine Protected Area Project – Developing the Evidence Base for Impact Assessments and the Sustainability Appraisal Final Report - Appendix E - Marine Site Reports

Published
19 August 2013
Topic
Marine and fisheries
ISBN
9781782567585

This is Appendix E for the pMPA Impact and Sustainability Report containing the detailed site by site reports. Published separately due to size.

View supporting documents Supporting documents

North-west Orkney ( NWO)

Site Area (km 2): 4,388

Site Summary

Table 1. Summary of Proposed Protected Features, Data Confidence and Conservation Objectives [ NWO]
Proposed protected features
Biodiversity Features
Sandeels.

Geodiversity Features
Marine Geomorphology of the Scottish Deep Ocean Seabed - sand bank, sand wave field, sediment wave fields.

Site Description
The North-west Orkney MPA proposal is an offshore site located to the north and west of the Orkney Islands. The MPA proposal boundary has been designated to focus on high densities of sandeels, their larvae and suitable sediment for sandeel colonisation.
Summary of confidence in presence, extent and condition of proposed protected features and conservation objectives
Proposed Protected Feature Estimated Area of Feature (by scenario) (km 2) Confidence in
Feature Presence 		Confidence in
Feature Extent 		Confidence in
Feature Condition 		Conservation Objective and Risk
Biodiversity Features
Sandeels All scenarios: 4384.84 Yes (Marine Scotland Science surveys, from 1970s to present day) Partial - Adult sandeel and larvae present across the possible MPA and beyond. Low Conserve (uncertain)
Geodiversity Features
Marine Geomorphology of the Scottish Deep Ocean Seabed - sand bank, sand wave field, sediment wave fields Sand bank: 8.50
Sand wave field: 36.26
Sediment wave fields: 360.51		 Yes Yes Low Conserve (uncertain)
Key: * Estimated area based on best available data
References:
Area of Features: GeMS
Confidence in biodiversity feature presence and extent: JNCC (2012g)
Confidence in biodiversity feature condition: JNCC (2013) pers. comm.
Confidence in geodiversity feature presence and extent: Brooks et al. (2012)
Confidence in geodiversity feature condition: Brooks et al. (2012)

Summary of Costs and Benefits

Table 2a. Site-Specific Economic Costs on Human Activities arising from the Designation and Management of the Site as an MPA (present value of total costs over 2014 to 2033 inclusive) [ NWO]
Human Activity Cost Impact on Activity
Lower Estimate (£Million) Intermediate Estimate (£Million) Upper Estimate (£Million)
Quantified Economic Costs (Discounted)
Energy Generation 0.026 0.062 0.062
Oil and Gas 0.071 0.071 0.071
Total Quantified Economic Costs 0.096 0.132 0.132
Non-Quantified Economic Costs
Energy Generation
  • Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment.
  • Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment.
  • Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment.
Oil and Gas
  • Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment; and
  • Future decommissioning costs assessed at national level.
  • Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment; and
  • Future decommissioning costs assessed at national level.
  • Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment; and
  • Future decommissioning costs assessed at national level.
Note: For detailed information on economic cost impacts on activities, see Table 4.
Table 2b. Site-Specific Public Sector Costs arising from the Designation and Management of the Site as an MPA (over 2014 to 2033 inclusive) [ NWO]
Description Public Sector Costs
Lower Estimate (£Million) Intermediate Estimate (£Million) Upper Estimate (£Million)
Quantified Public Sector Costs (Discounted)
Preparation of Marine Management Schemes None None None
Preparation of Statutory Instruments None None None
Development of voluntary measures National assessment National assessment National assessment
Site monitoring National assessment National assessment National assessment
Compliance and enforcement National assessment National assessment National assessment
Promotion of public understanding National assessment National assessment National assessment
Regulatory and advisory costs associated with licensing decisions 0.010 0.013 0.013
Total Quantified Public Sector Costs 0.010 0.013 0.013
Non-Quantified Public Sector Costs
None identified.
Table 2c. Summary of Social Impacts and Distribution of Quantified Impacts arising from the Designation and Management of the Site as an MPA (over 2014 to 2033 inclusive) [ NWO]
Key Areas of Social Impact Description Scale of Expected Impact across Scenarios, Average (mean no. of jobs affected) Distributional Analysis
Location Fishing Groups Predominantly Affected Social Groups Affected
Region Port Rural/ Urban/ Island Gear Types Most Affected Vessels most affected Crofters Ethnic minorities With disability or long term sick
None identified (Commercial Fisheries).
If any energy generation developments do not proceed as a result of designation (due to additional costs, project delays, loss of investor confidence), there may be significant social impacts due to job losses (non-quantified).
If any oil and gas developments do not proceed as a result of designation (due to additional costs, project delays, loss of investor confidence), there may be significant social impacts due to job losses (non-quantified).
Note: For detailed information on socio-economic impacts by sector, see Table 7a. For more detailed information on distributional impacts of quantified costs by sector see Tables 7b and 7c.
Table 2d. Site-Specific Benefits arising from the Designation and Management of the Site as an MPA (over 2014 to 2033 inclusive) [ NWO]
Benefit Description
Ecosystem Services Benefits (Moderate and High Benefits) Relevance Scale of Benefits
Recreation Moderate. Sea angling and diving take place on this site. Low - Moderate
Non-use value of natural environment Nil - Low Nil - Moderate
Other Benefits
None identified.
Note: For detailed information on ecosystem services benefits, see Tables 9 and 10. For detailed information on other benefits, see Table 5 (activities that would benefit) and Table 8 (contribution to ecologically-coherent network).

Summary of Overlaps and Interactions between Proposed Designated Features and Human Activities

Table 3. Overlaps and Potential Interactions between Features and Activities under different Scenarios, indicating need for Assessment of Cost Impacts on Human Activities from Designation of the Site as an MPA [ NWO]
Aggregates Aquaculture (Finfish) Aquaculture (Shellfish) Aviation Carbon Capture & Storage Coastal Protection Commercial Fisheries Energy Generation Military Activities Oil & Gas Ports & Harbours Power Interconnectors Recreational Boating Shipping Telecom Cables Tourism Water Sports
Biodiversity Features
Sandeels - - - - - - L/I/U L/ I/ U - L/ I/ U - L/I/U L/I/U - L/I/U - L/I/U
Geodiversity Features
Marine Geomorphology of the Scottish Deep Ocean Seabed - sand bank, sand wave field, sediment wave fields Considered to have a low sensitivity to the pressures associated with activities they are currently exposed and likely to be exposed to in the future; thus, not considered in the context of management.
Note: L = Lower Scenario; I = Intermediate Scenario; U = Upper Scenario. Normal font indicates that there is an overlap between the activity and proposed protected feature under that scenario, bold indicates that the overlap results in a potential interaction between the activity and proposed protected feature that has resulted in cost impacts under that scenario.
For detail of management measures assessed under each scenario for each activity, and results of the cost estimates, see Table 4.

Human Activity Summaries

Human activities that would be impacted by designation of the site as an MPA

Table 4a. Energy Generation [ NWO]

There are no energy generation activities currently operating within the NWO proposed MPA boundary or corresponding buffer zones. Thus, economic costs and management measures associated with energy generation in this proposed MPA are described in light of known possible future developments.

The Costa Head ( SSE Renewables Developments ( UK) Ltd and Alstom UK Holdings Ltd, 200MW), West Orkney South and West Orkney Middle South (both E.ON Climate & Renewables UK Ltd, 50MW each) wave energy developments are all at pre-application stage and located within 5km of the sandeels feature which occupies the whole of the proposed MPA. Therefore, additional licensing costs to assess potential impacts to sandeels within 5km (intermediate and upper scenarios) of the proposed activities may be incurred.

Areas of Search (AoS) for possible offshore wind and wave energy developments are present within the NWO proposed MPA boundary, overlapping the sandeels feature under all scenarios. In addition, a potential export cable route for the wind energy AoS overlaps the MPA feature Sandeels within the NWO proposed MPA boundary under all scenarios.
Economic Costs on the Activity of Designation of the Site as an MPA
Lower Estimate Intermediate Estimate Upper Estimate
Assumptions for cost impacts
  • Additional licensing costs to assess potential impacts to sandeels within 1km of proposed activities.
  • Additional licensing costs to assess potential impacts to sandeels within 5km of proposed activities.
  • Additional licensing costs to assess potential impacts to sandeels within 5km of proposed activities.
Description of one-off costs
  • Additional assessment costs for licence application - £12k per licence application (up to 3 in total). Application(s) estimated for submission in 2024 (wind and wave energy AoS and wind energy AoS export cable route).
  • Additional assessment costs for licence application - £12k per licence application (up to 6 in total). Application(s) estimated for submission in 2014 (Costa Head, West Orkney South and West Orkney Middle South) and 2024 (wind and wave energy AoS and wind energy AoS export cable route).
  • Additional assessment costs for licence application - £12k per licence application (up to 6 in total). Application(s) estimated for submission in 2014 (Costa Head, West Orkney South and West Orkney Middle South) and 2024 (wind and wave energy AoS and wind energy AoS export cable route).
Description of recurring costs
  • None.
  • None.
  • None.
Description of non-quantified costs
  • Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment.
  • Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment.
  • Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment.
Quantified Costs on the Activity of Designation of the Site as an MPA (£Million)
Total costs (2014-2033) 0.036 0.072 0.072
Average annual costs 0.002 0.004 0.004
Present value of total costs (2014-2033) 0.026 0.062 0.062
Total costs = Sum of one-off costs and recurring costs for the site summed over the 20 year period.
Average annual costs = Total costs divided by the total number of years under analysis ( i.e. 20).
Present value of total costs = Total costs discounted to their current value, using a discount rate of 3.5%.
Table 4b. Oil and Gas [ NWO]

Thirteen licensed blocks are present within the NWO proposed MPA that overlap with sandeels under all scenarios. There are an additional eight licence awards given during the 26 th UK oil and gas licensing round encompassed within the NWO proposed MPA boundary.

All eight of the awarded blocks overlap with sandeels within the MPA proposal boundary, under all scenarios, although only three of the awards are wholly encompassed by the MPA proposal boundary. The remainder overlap the boundary.
Economic Costs on the Activity of Designation of the Site as an MPA
Lower Estimate Intermediate Estimate Upper Estimate
Assumptions for cost impacts
  • Additional costs to assess potential impacts to MPA features for 26 th and 27 th licensing awards that overlap with MPA features - Assessment Phases 1 - 3 only (as no significant discoveries present within awarded blocks).
  • Additional costs to assess potential impacts to MPA features for 26 th and 27 th licensing awards that overlap with MPA features - Assessment Phases 1 - 3 only (as no significant discoveries present within awarded blocks).
  • Additional costs to assess potential impacts to MPA features for 26 th and 27 th licensing awards that overlap with MPA features - Assessment Phases 1 - 3 only (as no significant discoveries present within awarded blocks).
Description of one-off costs
  • Assessment Phase 1: surveys and evaluation costs; consultancy fees and additional operator staff input - £2k per well (8 wells (2016));
  • Assessment Phase 2: drilling and exploration; consultancy fees and additional operator staff input - £4k per well (8 wells (2018)); and
  • Assessment Phase 3: drilling and appraisal; consultancy fees and additional operator staff input - £4k per well (8 wells (2018)).
  • Assessment Phase 1: surveys and evaluation costs; consultancy fees and additional operator staff input - £2k per well (8 wells (2016));
  • Assessment Phase 2: drilling and exploration; consultancy fees and additional operator staff input - £4k per well (8 wells (2018)); and
  • Assessment Phase 3: drilling and appraisal; consultancy fees and additional operator staff input - £4k per well (8 wells (2018)).
  • Assessment Phase 1: surveys and evaluation costs; consultancy fees and additional operator staff input - £2k per well (8 wells (2016));
  • Assessment Phase 2: drilling and exploration; consultancy fees and additional operator staff input - £4k per well (8 wells (2018)); and
  • Assessment Phase 3: drilling and appraisal; consultancy fees and additional operator staff input - £4k per well (8 wells (2018)).
Description of recurring costs
  • None.
  • None.
  • None.
Description of non-quantified costs
  • Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment; and
  • Future decommissioning costs assessed at national level.
  • Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment; and
  • Future decommissioning costs assessed at national level.
  • Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment; and
  • Future decommissioning costs assessed at national level.
Quantified Costs on the Activity of Designation of the Site as an MPA (£Million)
Total costs (2014-2033) 0.080 0.080 0.080
Average annual costs 0.004 0.004 0.004
Present value of total costs (2014-2033) 0.071 0.071 0.071
Total costs = Sum of one-off costs and recurring costs for the site summed over the 20 year period.
Average annual costs = Total costs divided by the total number of years under analysis ( i.e. 20).
Present value of total costs = Total costs discounted to their current value, using a discount rate of 3.5%.

Human activities that would benefit from designation of the site as an MPA

Table 5. Human Activities that would Benefit from Designation of the Site as an MPA [ NWO]
Activity Description Lower Estimate Intermediate Estimate Upper Estimate
Water Sports - Sea Angling Sea angling is carried out along most of the Scottish coastline within 6nm ( SSACN). A small portion of the proposed NWO MPA is within 6nm of the UK coastline and also overlaps with the MPA biodiversity feature Sandeels (all feature extents). The density of sea angling in this overlapping area is likely to be very small. No management restrictions upon this activity are considered to be required. Sea anglers could benefit from any on-site positive effects resulting from the MPA designation including an increase in the size and diversity of species which in turn is expected to increase the attraction of a site for anglers (Fletcher et al. 2012). The intermediate management measures applied to sector activities will result in an increase of the beneficial impacts seen in the lower estimate. The upper management measures applied to sector activities will result in an increase of the beneficial impacts seen in the lower and intermediate estimates.
Water Sports - Scuba Diving There is one dive site located within the proposed MPA named 'North Shoal' which is described as 'a scenic boat dive' (http://www.finstrokes.com). The dive site overlaps the MPA biodiversity feature Sandeels within all feature extents. No management restrictions upon this activity are considered to be required. The added protection offered by an MPA designation and management measures placed upon sector activities may improve the marine ecosystem positively impacting on fish, benthic species and other marine wildlife which potentially will benefit the quality of the diving experience. The intermediate management measures applied to sector activities will result in an increase of the beneficial impacts seen in the lower estimate. The upper management measures applied to sector activities will result in an increase of the beneficial impacts seen in the lower and intermediate estimates.

Human activities that are present but which would be unaffected by designation of the site as an MPA

Table 6. Human Activities that are Present but which would be Unaffected by Designation of the Site as an MPA [ NWO]
Activity Description
Commercial Fisheries Whitefish trawls, pelagic trawls, pots, other trawls, nephrops trawls, whitefish seines and nets (over-15m vessels) and pots, pelagic trawls, whitefish trawls and other gears (under-15m vessels) operate in the NWO proposed MPA. The value of landings from the NWO area was £4.10 million (over-15m vessels) and £1.01 million (under-15m vessels, indicated from ICES rectangle landings data) (annual average for 2007-2011, 2012 prices). Provisional ScotMap data indicate that the annual average earnings from the NWO proposed MPA was £232,000, entirely from pots (predominantly for brown crab). Landings from the over-15m vessels are into Scrabster (40% by value), Peterhead (23%) and Lerwick (12%). VMS ping data indicate that 30 non- UK vessels were active in the NWO area in 2012: 12 from Norway; 6 from Ireland; 5 from the Netherlands; 3 from Germany, 2 from France and 1 from the Denmark and the Faroe Islands. Of the EU vessels, these were predominantly pelagic trawlers. Newly-emerged sandeel larvae, the proposed protected biodiversity feature for the site, are not thought to be sensitive or vulnerable to pressures from fishing gears operating within the area and therefore no management measures for fisheries are proposed and no cost impacts are anticipated.
Recreational Boating One medium use RYA cruising route (belonging to Clyde Cruising Club, Stromoway Sailing Club, Orkney Harbours and Orkney Sailing Clubs) and five light use RYA cruising route (belonging to: RYA Route / RYA Scotland Clyde Cruising Club, Stomness Marina; North of Scotland Yachting Association; Stromness Marina; Dalgety Bay Sailing Club; and RYA Route / RYA Scotland, Clyde Cruising Club) overlap with the 'sandeels' feature of the NWO proposed MPA under all scenarios (lower, intermediate and upper). The RYA cruising routes overlap with the sandeels feature for the following distances; Clyde Cruising Club, Stromoway Sailing Club, Orkney Harbours, Orkney Sailing Clubs overlaps for a distance of 11.8km; RYA Route / RYA Scotland, Clyde Cruising Club, Stomness Marina overlaps for a distance of 9.7km; North of Scotland Yachting Association overlaps for a distance of 50.5km; Stromness Marina overlaps for a distance of 37.3km; Dalgety Bay Sailing Club overlaps for 23.6km; and RYA Route / RYA Scotland, Clyde Cruising Club overlaps for a distance of 26.9km. It is unlikely there would be a significant interaction between the sandeel feature and recreational boating; therefore, no cost impacts are expected.
Power Interconnectors One future power interconnector (Orkney 132kV Subsea Link) overlaps with the NWO proposed MPA for a distance of 1.3km in the far south-western point of the MPA. The future power interconnector overlaps with sandeels (all scenarios). However no cost impacts are foreseen as the site is located beyond the 12 nautical mile threshold (within which licences are required for cables).
Telecom Cables Three operational telecom cables (Atlantic Crossing 1 Seg. A, Farice (2) (operational since 2004) and TAT 14(K)) overlap with sandeels (all scenarios) within the NWO proposed MPA boundary. However, no cost impacts are foreseen as the site is located beyond the 12 nautical mile threshold (within which licences are required for cables).

Social and Distributional Analysis of Impacts from Designation of the Site as an MPA

Table 7a. Identification of Social Impacts from Designation of the Site as an MPA and their significance (over 2014 to 2033 inclusive) [ NWO]
Sector Economic Impacts Economic Costs and GVA ( PV) Consequent Social Impacts Mitigation Significance of Social impact
Energy Generation Additional operational costs Quantified Cost Impact (2014-2033): £0.026 - 0.062m Future employment opportunities - if increased operational costs associated with management measures render projects unviable or restrict project size there will be a negative impact on economic activity and job creation in this sector. xxx (under the upper scenario only) Potentially significant

Costs associated with delays during the consenting process

Loss of investor confidence (developments do not proceed)

 Not Quantified

Future employment opportunities - if the delays deter investments there will be a negative impact on economic activity and future job creation in this sector.

Environment - possible negative impact in relation to climate change and the ability of the Scottish Government to meet its 2020 renewables targets, decarbonisation targets and climate change targets. There would also be consequent financial implications of climate change impacts.

This impact is uncertain and is only likely to arise under the upper scenario. JNCC's current advice is that the intermediate scenario represents their best view on management requirements.

 xxx (under the upper scenario only)
Oil and Gas Additional operational costs associated with licence and permit applications for new exploration development and decommissioning Quantified Cost Impact (2014-2033): £0.071m Decommissioning assessed at national level Future employment opportunities - reduced future employment opportunities if increased costs affect the economic viability of projects and lead to some projects not proceeding. 0
Additional mitigation measures for new developments or decommissioning activities to support achievement of site conservation objectives Not Quantified

Future employment opportunities - reduced future employment opportunities if costs significant and render development projects unviable.

This impact is uncertain and is only likely to arise under the upper scenario. JNCC's current advice is that the intermediate scenario represents their best view on management requirements.

 xxx (under the upper scenario only)
Costs associated with delays during the licensing and permitting process Loss of investor confidence (developments do not proceed) Not Quantified

Employment - reduced future employment opportunities if delays deter investments.

This impact is uncertain and is only likely to arise under the upper scenario. JNCC's current advice is that the intermediate scenario represents their best view on management requirements.

 xxx (under the upper scenario only)
Impacts: xxx - significant negative effect; xx - possible negative effects; x - minimal negative effect, if any; 0 - no noticeable effect expected.
Table 7b. Distribution of Quantified Economic Costs for Commercial Fisheries and Fish Processors (assuming zero displacement of fishing activity) - Location, Age and Gender [ NWO]
Sector/Impact Location Age Gender
Region Ports* Rural, Urban, Coastal or Island Children Working Age Pensionable Age Male Female
None identified.
Impacts: xxx - significant negative effect; xx - possible negative effects; x - minimal negative effect, if any; 0 - no noticeable effect expected.
Table 7c. Distribution of Quantified Economic Costs for Commercial Fisheries and Fish Processors (assuming zero displacement of fishing activity) - Fishing Groups, Income Groups and Social Groups [ NWO]
Sector/Impact Fishing Groups Income Groups Social Groups
Vessel Category <15m >15m Gear Types/Sector 10% Most Deprived Middle 80% 10% Most Affluent Crofters Ethnic minorities With Disability or Long-term Sick
None identified.
Impacts: xxx - significant negative effect; xx - possible negative effects; x - minimal negative effect, if any; 0 - no noticeable effect expected.

Potential Contribution of the Site to an Ecologically-Coherent Network

Table 8. Overview of Features Proposed for Designation and how these contribute to an Ecologically Coherent Network of MPAs [ NWO]
Feature Name Representation Replication Linkages Geographic Range
and Variation 		Resilience
Sandeels Provides representation for an area considered to be of importance to the life history of sandeels as a source of recruits to other sandeel grounds. Provides one of multiple examples to be protected in Scotland's seas, based on advice received from Marine Scotland Science. Sandeel larvae from North-west Orkney may be an important source of recruits to areas south of the Moray Firth and Shetland. Provides representation of an area importance to the life history of sandeels at the Northern extent of their range in OSPAR Region II in Scotland's seas. Sandeels are considered, in places, to be in decline in Scotland's seas. MPA-based management can help prevent further decline.
JNCC (pers. comm.); SNH and JNCC. (2012). Assessment of the potential adequacy of the Scottish MPA network for MPA search features: summary of the application of the stage 5 selection guidelines.
Available online from: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/marine/marine-environment/mpanetwork/engagement/270612.

Anticipated Benefits to Ecosystem Services

Table 9. Summary of Ecosystem Services Benefits arising from Designation of the Site as an MPA [28] [ NWO]
Services Relevance
to Site 		Baseline Level Estimated Impacts of Designation Value Weighting Scale of Benefits Confidence
Lower Intermediate Upper
Fish for human consumption Minimal - Low Minimal Nil Nil - Minimal, no benefits likely from management measures. However, sandeels here play an important role in repopulating fished grounds to the south around Moray Firth and Shetland. Minimal Minimal Moderate
Fish for non-human consumption Minimal
Gas and climate regulation Nil - Low Nil - Low Nil, or at best a very low level of protection of parts of ecosystem providing these services Low Nil - Low High
Natural hazard protection Nil - Low Nil - Low Low Nil - Low High
Regulation of pollution Nil - Low Nil - Low Low Nil - Low High
Non-use value of natural environment Low - Moderate Low - Moderate Nil Low Low - Moderate Low - Moderate Nil - Moderate Low
Recreation Minimal Minimal Nil Minimal Minimal Minimal Minimal Moderate
Research and Education Minimal - Low Minimal Nil Low Low Low Low Low
Total value of changes in ecosystem services Management measures unlikely to provide any significant benefits. Minimal Moderate

Human Activities which Occur within the Proposed MPA Norwegian Boundary Sediment Plain

Fishing Activities which Occur within the Proposed MPA Norwegian Boundary Sediment Plain

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