Publication - Impact assessment

Planning Scotland's Seas: 2013 - The Scottish Marine Protected Area Project – Developing the Evidence Base for Impact Assessments and the Sustainability Appraisal Final Report - Appendix E - Marine Site Reports

Published: 19 August 2013
Topic: Marine and fisheries
ISBN: 9781782567585

This is Appendix E for the pMPA Impact and Sustainability Report containing the detailed site by site reports. Published separately due to size.

Supporting documents

Lochs Duich, Long and Alsh ( DLA)

Site Area (km ²): 43

Site Summary

Table 1. Summary of Proposed Protected Features, Data Confidence and Conservation Objectives					[ DLA]
Proposed protected features
Biodiversity Features Burrowed mud, flame shell beds. Geodiversity Features None. Site Description The MPA proposal in Lochs Duich, Long and Alsh builds on the existing SAC in the area and covers three fjordic sea lochs in the north-west of Scotland.
Summary of confidence in presence, extent and condition of proposed protected features and conservation objectives
Proposed Protected Feature	Estimated Area of Feature (by scenario) (km ²)	Confidence in Feature Presence	Confidence in Feature Extent	Confidence in Feature Condition	Conservation Objective and Risk
Biodiversity Features
Burrowed mud	*Lower: 16.06 Intermediate: 16.06 Upper: 42.96	Yes ( MNCR surveys, 1989; Seasearch dive surveys)	Partial	Not known	Conserve
Flame shell beds	Lower: 0.75 Intermediate: 0.75 Upper: 0.75	Yes	Yes	Not known	Conserve
Geodiversity Features
N/A
Key: * Estimated area based on best available data References: Area of Feature: GeMs Confidence in feature presence and extent: SNH (2012e)

Summary of Costs and Benefits

Table 2a. Site-Specific Economic Costs on Human Activities arising from the Designation and Management of the Site as an MPA (present value of total costs over 2014 to 2033 inclusive)			[ DLA]
Human Activity	Cost Impact on Activity
Human Activity	Lower Estimate (£Million)	Intermediate Estimate (£Million)	Upper Estimate (£Million)
Quantified Economic Costs (Discounted)
Aquaculture (Finfish)	0.003	0.012	0.012
Commercial Fisheries*	0.000	0.052	0.179
Military	See national costs	See national costs	See national costs
Ports and Harbours	0.005	0.005	0.005
Total Quantified Economic Costs	0.008	0.069	0.196
Non-Quantified Economic Costs
Aquaculture (Finfish)	Possible costs associated with potential future development; and Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment.	Possible costs associated with potential future development; and Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment.	Possible costs associated with potential future development; and Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment.
Commercial Fisheries	None.	Loss of value of catches from non- UK vessels; and Displacement impacts.	Loss of value of catches from non- UK vessels; and Displacement impacts.
Military	See national assessment.	See national assessment.	See national assessment.
Recreational Boating	None.	None.	Cost of anchorage relocation.
Ports and Harbours	Relocation of anchorages/ mooring areas away from features of high sensitivity; and Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment.	Relocation of anchorages/ mooring areas away from features of high and medium sensitivity; and Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment.	Relocation of anchorages/ mooring areas away from features of high and medium sensitivity; and Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment.
Note: For detailed information on economic cost impacts on activities, see Table 4. * These estimates (present value of total change in GVA) assume zero displacement of fishing activity and hence are likely to overestimate the costs.

Table 2b. Site-Specific Public Sector Costs arising from the Designation and Management of the Site as an MPA (over 2014 to 2033 inclusive)			[ DLA]
Description	Public Sector Costs
Description	Lower Estimate (£Million)	Intermediate Estimate (£Million)	Upper Estimate (£Million)
Quantified Public Sector Costs (Discounted)
Preparation of Marine Management Schemes	0.024	0.024	0.024
Preparation of Statutory Instruments	0.004	0.004	0.004
Development of voluntary measures	National assessment	National assessment	National assessment
Site monitoring	National assessment	National assessment	National assessment
Compliance and enforcement	National assessment	National assessment	National assessment
Promotion of public understanding	National assessment	National assessment	National assessment
Regulatory and advisory costs associated with licensing decisions	<0.001*	<0.001*	<0.001*
Total Quantified Public Sector Costs	0.028	0.028	0.028
Non-Quantified Public Sector Costs
None
* Regulatory and advisory costs of finfish and shellfish aquaculture assessed at national level.

Table 2c. Summary of Social Impacts and Distribution of Quantified Impacts arising from the Designation and Management of the Site as an MPA (over 2014 to 2033 inclusive)										[ DLA]
Key Areas of Social Impact	Description	Scale of Expected Impact across Scenarios, Average (mean no. of jobs affected)	Distributional Analysis
			Location			Fishing Groups Predominantly Affected			Social Groups Affected
			Region	Port	Rural/ Urban/ Island	Gear Types Most Affected	Vessels most affected	Crofters	Ethnic minorities	With disability or long term sick
Employment with consequent impacts on: Health, Crime, Environment, and Culture and Heritage	Commercial fisheries - Loss of jobs (direct and indirect)	Lower: 0 jobs Intermediate: 0 jobs Upper: 0 jobs	North West West North West Isle of Man	Mallaig Oban Stornoway Douglas	Impacts concentrated in rural, urban and island coastal areas	Dredges	Lower: N/A Upper: >15m	No Impact.	No Impact	No employment data but unlikely to be employed in fisheries.
Note: For detailed information on socio-economic impacts by sector, see Table 7a. For more detailed information on distributional impacts of quantified costs by sector see Tables 7b and 7c.

Table 2d. Site-Specific Benefits arising from the Designation and Management of the Site as an MPA (over 2014 to 2033 inclusive)		[ DLA]
Benefit	Description
Ecosystem Services Benefits (Moderate and High Benefits)	Relevance	Scale of Benefits
Non-use value of natural environment	Low - Moderate. Wrecks and the protected features, and a contribution of the site to MPA network, has non-use values.	Low - Moderate
Other Benefits
Tourism	Higher biodiversity due to designation, and presence of designations, may attract more tourism activity to local economy.
Contribution to ecologically coherent network	See report Section 7.5.
Note: For detailed information on ecosystem services benefits, see Tables 9 and 10. For detailed information on other benefits, see Table 5 (activities that would benefit) and Table 8 (contribution to ecologically-coherent network).

Summary of Overlaps and Interactions between Proposed Designated Features and Human Activities

Table 3. Overlaps and Potential Interactions between Features and Activities under different Scenarios, indicating need for Assessment of Cost Impacts on Human Activities from Designation of the Site as an MPA																	[ DLA]
	Aggregates	Aquaculture (Finfish)	Aquaculture (Shellfish)	Aviation	Carbon Capture & Storage	Coastal Protection	Commercial Fisheries	Energy Generation	Military Activities	Oil & Gas	Ports & Harbours	Power Interconnectors	Recreational Boating	Shipping	Telecom Cables	Tourism	Water Sports
Biodiversity Features
Burrowed mud	-	L/I/U	-	-	-	-	L/ I/U	L/I/U	L/I/U	-	L/ I/ U	L/I/U	L/I/U	-	-	L/I/U	L/I/U
Flame shell beds	-	-	-	-	-	-	L/ I/U	L/I/U	-	-	L/ I/ U	-	L/I/U	-	-	L/I/U	L/I/U
Geodiversity Features
N/A
Note: L = Lower Scenario; I = Intermediate Scenario; U = Upper Scenario. Normal font indicates that there is an overlap between the activity and proposed designated feature under that scenario, bold indicates that the overlap results in a potential interaction between the activity and proposed designated feature that has resulted in cost impacts under that scenario. For detail of management measures assessed under each scenario for each activity, and results of the cost estimates, see Table 4.

Human Activity Summaries

Human activities that would be impacted by designation of the site as an MPA

Table 4a. Aquaculture (Finfish)			[ DLA]
There are three finfish farms (Ardintoul, Loch Alsh (Sron) and Loch Duich) within the boundary of the DLA proposed MPA. Two of the three sites, Ardintoul and Loch Alsh (Sron) (located in the centre and western sections of the proposed MPA respectively), directly overlap with the Burrowed Mud feature under all scenarios.. The third, Loch Duich, overlaps with the Burrowed Mud feature under the upper scenario only. A fourth finfish farm, Mill Burn (Old Mill), is also located within a 1km buffer zone from the proposed MPA. The aquaculture sites have been placed over the burrowed mud feature as part of current management measures in place to avoid impacts on the SAC reefs within the area. As burrowed mud is not an OSPAR or BAP feature it is therefore possible that additional management measures may be required for new planning or CAR licence applications should the feature be designated within an MPA. Any management measures put in pace as part of the designation of the MPA would need to consider the management of the reefs and the possible distribution of firework anemone which will be confirmed after further survey work in May 2013. There is no public information on potential future development within the proposed MPA. In the absence of infomation on potential future developments, the assessment has focused on the costs associated with obtaining new CAR licences. A national assessment of the costs of obtaining planning permission for new developments is provided separately.
Economic Costs on the Activity of Designation of the Site as an MPA
	Lower Estimate	Intermediate Estimate	Upper Estimate
Assumptions for cost impacts	Additional assessment costs for new CAR licence applications to assess impacts to MPA features.	Additional assessment costs for new CAR licence applications to assess impacts to MPA features; and Additional survey costs incurred once every 10 years (2019 & 2029) to inform new CAR licence applications.	Additional assessment costs for new CAR licence applications to assess impacts to MPA features; and Additional survey costs incurred once every 10 years (2019 & 2029) to inform new CAR licence applications.
Description of one-off costs	Additional assessment costs for CAR licence once every 10 years (2019, 2029) of £500 per CAR licence application.	Additional assessment costs for CAR licence once every 10 years (2019, 2029) of £500 per CAR licence application; and Additional baseline visual survey costs -£1.6k per CAR licence application.	Additional assessment costs for CAR licence once every 10 years (2019, 2029) of £500 per CAR licence application; and Additional baseline visual survey costs -£1.6k per CAR licence application.
Description of recurring costs	None.	None.	None.
Description of non-quantified costs	Possible costs associated with potential future development. A national assessment of additional assessment and survey costs for potential future development is provided separately; and Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment.	Possible costs associated with potential future development. A national assessment of additional assessment and survey costs for potential future development is provided separately; and Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment.	Possible costs associated with potential future development. A national assessment of additional assessment and survey costs for potential future development is provided separately; and Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment.
Quantified Costs on the Activity of Designation of the Site as an MPA (£Million)
Total costs (2014-2033)	0.004	0.017	0.017
Average annual costs	<0.001	0.001	0.001
Present value of total costs (2014-2033)	0.003	0.012	0.012
Total costs = Sum of one-off costs and recurring costs for the site summed over the 20 year period. Average annual costs = Total costs divided by the total number of years under analysis ( i.e. 20). Present value of total costs = Total costs discounted to their current value, using a discount rate of 3.5%.

Table 4b. Commercial Fisheries (assuming zero displacement of fishing activity)			[ DLA]
According to VMS-based estimates and ICES rectangle landings statistics, dredges, nephrops trawls and pelagic trawls (over-15m) and pots, nephrops trawls, hand fishing and other gears (under-15m vessels) operate within the DLA proposed MPA. The value of catches from the DLA area was £21,000 (over-15m vessels) and £40,000 (under-15m vessels, indicated from ICES rectangle landings data) (annual average for 2007-2011, 2012 prices). Landings from the over-15m vessels were made predominantly into Kyle (45% by value), Mallaig (34%), Stornoway (7%) and South Uist and Eriskay (7%). For the over-15m fleet, dredgers operated in particular in the west and central part of the proposed MPA over the area of burrowed mud. Provisional ScotMap data indicate that the annual average earnings from the DLA proposed MPA was £7,700, with over 60% from Nephrops pots. ScotMap data indicate very little fishing activity by under-15m vessels within the proposed MPA area. The cost impact estimate for <15m nephrops trawls is likely to be an over-estimate. The coverage for ScotMap interviews in the region was 71.9% (total value of reported landings from the Fisheries Information Network for those vessels included in the ScotMap value analysis expressed as a percentage of the total reported landings for all vessels <15m). Therefore the ScotMap estimate is likely to under-represent the value of fishing by under-15m vessels, and the spatial representation of the value of fishing is less robust than in regions where coverage is higher. VMS data indicated that 2 Irish vessels and 1 Norwegian vessel were present within the DLA proposed MPA in 2012. However, it is more likely that these vessels were transiting to a port than actively fishing. Management measures for the scenarios have been developed based on the sensitivity and vulnerability of the features to the pressures caused by different gear types and SNH recommendations. The flame shell bed recorded in 2012 was within the existing Harbour Area, where restrictions are already in place on fishing activity, therefore no additional cost impacts for flame shell beds are expected. Unlike most other sectors, the potential cost of designation on commercial fisheries is a loss or displacement of current (and future) output, caused by restrictions on fishing activities. Any decrease in output will, all else being equal, reduce the Gross Value Added ( GVA) generated by the sector and have knock-on effects on the GVA generated by those industries that supply commercial fishing vessels. The costs estimates for this sector have therefore been estimated in terms of GVA. GVA estimates have been generated by applying fleet segment-specific ' GVA/total income' ratios to the value of landings affected. The GVA ratios have been calculated using data on total income and GVA from the Sea Fish Industry Authority Multi-year Fleet Economic Performance Dataset (published March 2013). Further details on the GVA ratios and the methodology for estimating GVA and employment impacts applied are presented in Appendix C7. It is important to note that all costs presented below assume that all affected landings are lost, that is, there is no displacement of fishing activity to alternative fishing grounds. In reality, some displacement is likely to occur and hence the cost, GVA and employment impacts presented in this table are likely to overestimate the costs.
Economic Costs on the Activity of Designation of the Site as an MPA
	Lower Estimate	Intermediate Estimate	Upper Estimate
Assumptions for cost impacts	No cost impacts expected.	Reduce mobile bottom-contact gear (whitefish, nephrops and other trawls and seines, beam trawls and dredges) pressure by 50% across burrowed mud feature.	Closure to mobile bottom-contact gears (whitefish, nephrops and other trawls and seines, beam trawls and dredges) across burrowed mud feature.
Description of one-off costs	None.	None.	None.
Description of recurring costs	None.	Loss of >15m fishing income (annual values, £ million, 2012 prices): Nephrops trawls (<0.001); Dredges (0.006). Loss of <15m fishing income (annual values, £ million, 2012 prices): Nephrops trawls (0.001); Dredges (<0.001); Other affected gears (<0.001).	Loss of >15m fishing income (annual values, £ million, 2012 prices): Nephrops trawls (0.001); Dredges (0.020). Loss of <15m fishing income (annual values, £ million, 2012 prices): Nephrops trawls (0.004); Dredges (<0.001); Other affected gears (<0.001).
Description of non-quantified costs	None.	Displacement effects, including conflict with other fishing vessels, environmental impacts in targeting new areas, longer steaming times and increased fuel costs, changes in costs and earnings, gear development and adaptation costs, and additional quota costs.	Displacement effects, including conflict with other fishing vessels, environmental impacts in targeting new areas, longer steaming times and increased fuel costs, changes in costs and earnings, gear development and adaptation costs, and additional quota costs.
Quantified Costs on the Activity of Designation of the Site as an MPA (£Million)
Total costs (2014-2033)	0.000	0.133	0.506
Average annual costs	0.000	0.007	0.025
Present value of total costs (2014-2033)	0.000	0.098	0.372
Economic Impacts (£Million)
Total change in GVA (2014-2033)	0.000	0.071	0.244
Average annual change to GVA	0.000	0.004	0.012
Present value of total change in GVA (2014-2033)	0.000	0.052	0.179
Direct and Indirect reduction in Employment	0.0 jobs	0.1 jobs	0.1 jobs
Total costs = Sum of one-off costs and recurring costs for the site summed over the 20 year period. Average annual costs = Total costs divided by the total number of years under analysis ( i.e. 20). Present value of total costs = Total costs discounted to their current value, using a discount rate of 3.5%. Total change in GVA (2014-2033) = The change in direct GVA in the sector for the site summed over the 20 year period. Average annual change to GVA = Total change in direct GVA in the sector for the site divided by the total number of years under analysis ( i.e. 20). Present value of total change in GVA (2014-2033) = Total change in direct GVA in the sector for the site discounted to current value, using a discount rate of 3.5%. Direct and Indirect reduction in Employment = The average (mean) reduction in direct employment in the sector plus the indirect reduction in employment on the sector's suppliers.

Table 4c. Military			[ DLA]
One military practice area (submarine exercise area X5721) overlaps with burrowed mud (all scenarios) within the DLA proposed MPA. The features and associated habitats which overlap with military activities have not been described as vulnerable to MoD activities in this proposed MPA. It is assumed that management relating to MoD activity will be coordinated through the MoD's Maritime Environmental Sustainability Appraisal Tool ( MESAT) which the MoD uses to assist in meeting its environmental obligations. This process will include operational guidance to reduce significant impacts of military activities on MPAs. It is assumed that the MoD will incur additional costs in adjusting MESAT and other MoD environmental assessment tools in order to consider whether its activities will impact on the conservation objectives of MPAs and also incur additional costs in adjusting electronic charts to consider MPAs. However, these costs will be incurred at national level and hence no site-specific cost assessments have been made.
Economic Costs on the Activity of Designation of the Site as an MPA
	Lower Estimate	Intermediate Estimate	Upper Estimate
Assumptions for cost impacts	See National Assessment.	See National Assessment.	See National Assessment.
Description of one-off costs
Description of recurring costs
Description of non-quantified costs
Quantified Costs on the Activity of Designation of the Site as an MPA (£Million)
Total costs (2014-2033)	See national costs	See national costs	See national costs
Average annual costs	See national costs	See national costs	See national costs
Present value of total costs (2014-2033)	See national costs	See national costs	See national costs
Total costs = Sum of one-off costs and recurring costs for the site summed over the 20 year period. Average annual costs = Total costs divided by the total number of years under analysis ( i.e. 20). Present value of total costs = Total costs discounted to their current value, using a discount rate of 3.5%.

Table 4d. Ports and Harbours			[ DLA]
There is one port/harbour (Kyle) within the DLA proposed MPA boundary. Kyle overlaps the MPA features burrowed mud and flame shell beds under all scenarios. Therefore, management costs may be incurred under the assumption that small ports/harbours will undergo one new development within the relevant time frame (2014-2033), assumed for the year 2024. There are four anchorages/mooring areas within the DLA proposed MPA boundary, three of which overlap burrowed mud under all scenarios. The remaining anchorage/mooring area overlaps burrowed mud under the intermediate and upper scenarios only. Costs may be expected to relocate anchorages/mooring areas to less sensitive areas, although any associated costs are non-quantifiable.
Economic Costs on the Activity of Designation of the Site as an MPA
	Lower Estimate	Intermediate Estimate	Upper Estimate
Assumptions for cost impacts	Additional licensing costs for small port developments (up to 1 in total); and Relocate anchorages/mooring areas away from all features with a high sensitivity.	Additional licensing costs for small port developments (up to 1 in total); and Relocate anchorages/mooring areas away from all features with a high or medium sensitivity. If not possible to relocate away from medium-sensitivity features, relocate to more representative areas.	Additional licensing costs for small port developments (up to 1 in total); and Relocate anchorages/mooring areas away from all features with a high or medium sensitivity. If not possible to relocate away from medium-sensitivity features, relocate to more representative areas.
Description of one-off costs	Additional assessment costs for licence application - £6.75k per licence application. Application estimated for submission in 2024 (Kyle).	Additional assessment costs for licence application - £6.75k per licence application. Application estimated for submission in 2024 (Kyle).	Additional assessment costs for licence application - £6.75k per licence application. Application estimated for submission in 2024 (Kyle).
Description of recurring costs	None.	None.	None.
Description of non-quantified costs	Relocation of anchorages/mooring areas away from features of high sensitivity; and Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment.	Relocation of anchorages/mooring areas away from features of high and medium sensitivity; and Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment.	Relocation of anchorages/mooring areas away from features of high and medium sensitivity; and Costs of project delays during consenting; risk of deterrent to investment.
Quantified Costs on the Activity of Designation of the Site as an MPA (£Million)
Total costs (2014-2033)	0.007	0.007	0.007
Average annual costs	0.000	0.000	0.000
Present value of total costs (2014-2033)	0.005	0.005	0.005
Total costs = Sum of one-off costs and recurring costs for the site summed over the 20 year period. Average annual costs = Total costs divided by the total number of years under analysis ( i.e. 20). Present value of total costs = Total costs discounted to their current value, using a discount rate of 3.5%.

Table 4e. Recreational Boating			[ DLA]
There are two cruising routes that intersect with the DLA proposed MPA boundary; one with heavy cruising traffic and one with light traffic. Under all scenarios, the heavy traffic cruising route overlaps with burrowed mud and flame shell beds, while the low traffic route overlaps with burrowed mud only. Under the upper scenario there are 15 anchorages for recreational boating present within the DLA proposed MPA boundary that overlap with feature extents for burrowed mud. The Crown Estate also has a number of mooring points and mooring areas within the proposed MPA. Three large mooring areas are present: one with nine mooring points within it, one with five and one with a single mooring point present. It is noted, however, that this may be an underestimate and additional mooring points may be present within the areas that are not represented by the data. A further nine individual mooring points are also located within the proposed MPA. All Crown Estate moorings present within the DLA proposed MPA overlap with burrowed mud. Under the intermediate and lower scenarios, SNH have identified two recreational anchorages and one mooring area owned by The Crown Estate that overlap with proposed protected features. One anchorage overlaps with burrowed mud within a 100m buffer zone, and one with records of fireworks anemone within a 200m buffer zone. The Crown Estate mooring area is in close proximity (20m) to a flame shell bed.
Economic Costs on the Activity of Designation of the Site as an MPA
	Lower Estimate	Intermediate Estimate	Upper Estimate
Assumptions for cost impacts	No additional management required. Fireworks anemone is sensitive to anchorage pressures although is within 200m buffer zone and detailed spatial data on its presence is lacking. Burrowed mud has medium sensitivity to surface abrasion associated with anchoring although effects are highly localised and mostly relate to demersal fishing activity. Flame shell beds are highly sensitive to pressures associated with anchorages, although there is no physical overlap with the mooring area. Any future expansion of the mooring area should not encroach on flame shell beds.	No additional management required. Fireworks anemone is sensitive to anchorage pressures although is within 200m buffer zone and detailed spatial data on its presence is lacking. Burrowed mud has medium sensitivity to surface abrasion associated with anchoring although effects are highly localised and mostly relate to demersal fishing activity. Flame shell beds are highly sensitive to pressures associated with anchorages, although there is no physical overlap with the mooring area. Any future expansion of the mooring area should not encroach on flame shell beds.	Relocate anchorages/moorings away from burrowed mud as it has medium sensitivity to surface abrasion pressure associated with anchoring. If not possible to relocate away from burrowed mud, relocate to less sensitive or more representative areas of burrowed mud within MPA.
Description of one-off costs	None.	None.	None.
Description of recurring costs	None.	None.	None.
Description of non-quantified costs	None.	None.	Cost of anchorage relocation.

Human activities that would benefit from designation of the site as an MPA

Table 5. Human Activities that would Benefit from Designation of the Site as an MPA				[ DLA]
Activity	Description	Lower Estimate	Intermediate Estimate	Upper Estimate
Tourism	Coastal areas are well represented when considering the locations of various tourist related sites within Scotland with a range of site types present in all regions including the North West. Where significant impacts to recreational boating or water sports have been identified for the site, there could also be consequential impacts on tourism.	Tourism may benefit from the designation of the MPA as an added attraction to the destination. In addition, there may also be indirect benefits to tourism as a result of benefits to some water sports activities, for example, recreational angling and diving.	The intermediate management measures applied to sector activities will result in an increase of the beneficial impacts seen in the lower estimate.	The upper management measures applied to sector activities will result in an increase of the beneficial impacts seen in the lower and intermediate estimates.
Water Sports - Sea Angling	Sea angling is carried out along most of the Scottish coastline within 6nm ( SSACN). DLA proposed MPA is a coastal site and is located wholly within 6nm of the UK coastline. Therefore, sea angling overlaps with all features and there corresponding extents within the proposed MPA. No management restrictions upon this activity are required.	Sea anglers could benefit from any on-site positive effects resulting from the MPA designation and corresponding management restrictions on sector activities including an increase in the size and diversity of species which in turn is expected to increase the attraction of a site for anglers (Fletcher et al. 2012).	The intermediate management measures applied to sector activities will result in an increase of the beneficial impacts seen in the lower estimate.	The upper management measures applied to sector activities will result in an increase of the beneficial impacts seen in the lower and intermediate estimates.
Water Sports - Scuba diving	There are seven dive sites located within DLA proposed MPA, two are wreck dive sites ( HMS Port Napier and Golden harvest) and 5 are shore dive sites (Inverinate Slip, Duich point skerry, Old car park, Totaig and Jacobite Bay). The seven dive sites overlap with Burrowed mud under the upper scenario however they do not overlap within any other features under the intermediate and lower scenarios. No management restrictions upon this activity are required.	The added protection offered by an MPA designation and management measures placed upon sector activities may increase the aesthetic attraction of the dive sites through an improved marine ecosystem and a reduction in degradation to the wreck sites.	The intermediate management measures applied to sector activities will result in an increase of the beneficial impacts seen in the lower estimate.	The upper management measures applied to sector activities will result in an increase of the beneficial impacts seen in the lower and intermediate estimates.

Human activities that are present but which would be unaffected by designation of the site as an MPA

Table 6. Human Activities that are Present but which would be Unaffected by Designation of the Site as an MPA [ DLA]
Activity	Description
Energy Generation	The Kyle Rhea Tidal Stream Array (SeaGeneration (Kyle Rhea) Ltd, up to 8 MW capacity) is a potential tidal energy generation development, for which an application has been submitted to Marine Scotland. The proposed site of the tidal array is between the Isle of Skye and the Scottish mainland and, subsequently, the 5km buffer of the development could overlap the DLA proposed MPA boundary. Under all scenarios ( i.e. lower, intermediate and upper feature extent), the Kyle Rhea Tidal Stream Array (5km buffer) overlaps the MPA features 'burrowed mud' and 'flame shell beds', neither of which are OSPAR nor BAP designated. Flame shell beds are of high sensitivity to the permanent change of one marine habitat type to another (through changes in substratum), damage to species living on or within the seabed and changes in peak mean spring tide flow. Burrowed Muds are of medium sensitivity to physical change (to another seabed type) and sub-surface abrasion/penetration. Therefore, it is feasible that additional costs would be incurred in assessing the potential impacts of the development on the MPA features. However, this assessment is likely to be completed before 2014 and, therefore, no additional costs are anticipated ( i.e. costs effectively sunk) following any decision to designate the site an MPA in 2014.
Power Interconnectors	Two existing power interconnectors overlap with the DLA proposed MPA. Both power interconnectors overlap with burrowed mud (upper scenario). Within a 1km buffer the power interconnectors also overlap with burrowed mud under the lower and intermediate scenarios. No cost impacts are foreseen, as it is assumed that there will be no review of the existing consents.
Water Sports - Kayaking	Kayaking is popular around the coast of Mull including areas within DLA proposed MPA. Water sports activities including kayaking are not assessed as requiring any additional management measures. It is also considered that no additional benefit to kayaking from management measures applied to other activities will occur.

Social and Distributional Analysis of Impacts from Designation of the Site as an MPA

Table 7a. Social Impacts Associated with Quantified and Non-Quantified Economic Costs					[ DLA]
Sector	Potential Economic Impacts	Economic Costs and GVA ( PV)	Area of Social Impact Affected	Mitigation	Significance of Social impact
Commercial Fisheries	Loss of traditional fishing grounds with consequent loss in landings, value of landings and hence GVA	Annual Average Loss in Value of Landings: Lower: £0.00m Intermediate: <0.01m Upper: £0.03m Annual Average Loss in GVA (direct and indirect): Lower: £0.00m Intermediate: <£0.01m Upper: £0.01m	Culture and heritage - impact on traditions from loss of fishing grounds.		Health: x (for individuals affected who do not find alternative employment)
	If the loss in GVA significant enough, risk of job losses (direct and indirect)	Job Losses*: Lower: 0.0 jobs Intermediate: 0.1 jobs Upper: 0.1 jobs	A reduction in employment can generate a wide range of social impacts which, in turn, can generate a range of short and long term costs for wider society and the public purse: Healt h (increase in illness, mental stress, loss of self esteem and risk of depression); Increase in crime; and Reduction in f u ture emp lo y me n t prospects/future earnings.	Support to retrain those affected and for the promotion of new small businesses in fisheries dependent areas.
	Displacement Effects	Not quantified	Quantified impact on jobs assume worst case scenario ( i.e. no redistribution of effort). In reality displacement effects likely to occur with socio-economic consequences: Empl o y m e nt - reduced employment due to changes in costs and earnings profile of vessels ( e.g. increased fuel costs, gear development and adaption costs, additional quota costs). Conflict/Loss of social cohesion - diminishing fishing grounds may increase conflict with other vessels/gear types, increase social tensions within fishing communities and lead to a loss of social cohesion among fleets. Could also lead to increased operating costs as a result of lost or damaged gear. Equally, gear conflict could reduce where gears are restricted/prohibited; Healt h - increased risks to the safety of fishers and vessels and increased stress due to moving to lesser known areas. E n v ironmental - increased impact in targeting new areas, longer streaming times and increased fuel consumption. Cult ur e a nd her i tag e - change in traditional fishing patterns/ activities.		x
Impacts: xxx - significant negative effect; xx - possible negative effects; x - minimal negative effect, if any; 0 - no noticeable effect expected. * These estimates assume zero displacement of fishing activity and hence are likely to overestimate the costs.

Table 7b. Distribution of Quantified Economic Costs for Commercial Fisheries and Fish Processors (assuming zero displacement of fishing activity) - Location, Age and Gender								[ DLA]
Sector/Impact	Location			Age			Gender
Sector/Impact	Region	Ports*	Rural, Urban, Coastal or Island	Children	Working Age	Pensionable Age	Male	Female
Commercial Fisheries Reduction in landed value, GVA and employment	x North-West West	x Largest employment impacts in: Mallaig (38%), Oban (37%), Stornoway (17%), Douglas (6%)	x Coastal Rural and Urban	0	0	xx Potential negative effect if retirees own affected vessels or live in households affected by unemployment.	0 0-0.1 job losses	0
Fish Processors Reduction in local landings at landing ports	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Impacts: xxx - significant negative effect; xx - possible negative effects; x - minimal negative effect, if any; 0 - no noticeable effect expected. * Based on value of landings by home port affected under intermediate scenario.

Table 7c. Distribution of Quantified Economic Costs for Commercial Fisheries and Fish Processors (assuming zero displacement of fishing activity) - Fishing Groups, Income Groups and Social Groups								[ DLA]
Sector/Impact	Fishing Groups			Income Groups			Social Groups
Sector/Impact	Vessel Category <15m >15m*	Gear Types/Sector*	10% Most Deprived	Middle 80%	10% Most Affluent	Crofters	Ethnic minorities	With Disability or Long-term Sick
Commercial Fisheries Reduction in landed value, GVA and employment	Lower: N/A Upper: >15m	Dredges	0	0	x Information only available on average incomes not the distribution of income. Therefore, not clear whether this group will be affected.	0	0	0
Fish Processors Reduction in local landings at landing ports		Shellfish: xxx Demersal: 0 Pelagic: 0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Impacts: xxx - significant negative effect; xx - possible negative effects; x - minimal negative effect, if any; 0 - no noticeable effect expected. * Based on costs to gear types/sectors and vessel categories affected under the intermediate scenario.

Potential Contribution of the Site to an Ecologically-Coherent Network

Table 8. Overview of Features Proposed for Designation and how these contribute to an Ecologically Coherent Network of MPAs					[ DLA]
Feature Name	Representation	Replication	Linkages	Geographic Range and Variation	Resilience
Burrowed mud	Provides representation for the firework anemone type of burrowed mud in OSPAR Region III.	Represents one of two recommended areas for this feature of burrowed mud in OSPAR Region III.	Not currently understood for burrowed mud.	Burrowed mud occurs within a range of environments. All records of this feature of burrowed mud are from OSPAR Region III. The recommended MPA areas would provide representation for the geographic range of the firework anemone type of burrowed mud.
Flame shell beds	Provides representation for flame shell beds in OSPAR Region III.	Represents one of five recommended areas for flame shell beds in OSPAR Region III.	Not currently understood for flame shell beds.	All records of flame shell beds are from OSPAR Region III. The recommended MPA areas would to some extent reflect the geographic range of flame shell beds in Scottish seas.	Not listed by OSPAR as threatened and/or declining, although there is evidence of decline. The MPA may increase resilience.
JNCC (pers. comm.); SNH and JNCC. (2012). Assessment of the potential adequacy of the Scottish MPA network for MPA search features: summary of the application of the stage 5 selection guidelines. Available online from: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/marine/marine-environment/mpanetwork/engagement/270612.

Anticipated Benefits to Ecosystem Services

Table 9. Summary of Ecosystem Services Benefits arising from Designation of the Site as an MPA ^[8]								[ DLA]
Services	Relevance to Site	Baseline Level	Estimated Impacts of Designation			Value Weighting	Scale of Benefits	Confidence
Services	Relevance to Site	Baseline Level	Lower	Intermediate	Upper	Value Weighting	Scale of Benefits	Confidence
Fish for human consumption	Moderate. Habitats make contribution to food webs.	Stocks not at MSY	Nil	Low - some recovery of benthic species possible.		Low. Site fishing grounds have low value	Nil - Low	Moderate
Fish for non-human consumption	Moderate. Habitats make contribution to food webs.	Stocks reduced from potential maximum	Nil	Low - some recovery of benthic species possible.		Low. Site fishing grounds have low value	Nil - Low	Moderate
Gas and climate regulation	Nil - Low	Nil - Low	Nil	Nil	Minimal	Moderate	Nil	High
Natural hazard protection	Low	Low	Nil, would not affect stability of coastline			Moderate, Clyde is valuable for marine activities	Nil	High
Regulation of pollution	Low	Low	Nil	Minimal - Low, maintained by protecting seabed features		Low - Moderate, for recreational use of waters	Nil - Low	High
Non-use value of natural environment	Low - Moderate. Wrecks and protected features, and contribution of the site to MPA network, have non-use value.	Non-use value of the site may decline	Nil, no change in key characteristics of site	Low - protection of key characteristics of site from minor decline	Moderate - protection of key characteristics of site from decline, and/or allowing some recovery of values	Moderate	Low - Moderate	Low
Recreation	Moderate	7 active dive sites, boating anchorages, sea angling	Nil	Low - slightly higher biodiversity encountered by divers and boating		Moderate	Low	Moderate
Research and Education	Moderate	Biological features have research value but there are substitutes	Nil, no change in key characteristics of site	Low - protection of key characteristics of site from decline, improving future research opportunities		Low	Nil - Low	Low
Total value of changes in ecosystem services			Low for lower scenario, moderate for upper scenarios				Low - Moderate	Low

Human Activities which Occur within the Proposed MPA Lochs Duich Long and Alsh

Fishing Activities which Occur within the Proposed MPA Lochs Duich Long and Alsh

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Lochs Duich, Long and Alsh ( DLA)

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