Prison population

Introduction

The prison population has often exceeded 8,300 this year. This is approaching some of the highest levels seen. The latest projections through to January 2025 indicate that the prison population will continue to rise. Without intervention this is an unsustainable position for our prison service.

There are many reasons for this rise. Over the last decade the average length of prison sentences has increased by 32%. In addition, the prison population is increasingly complex, with many groups requiring to be accommodated separately from others. This is despite recorded crime being down 40% since 2006 to 2007.

There is no single reason for the increase in the prison population and there is no simple solution to this problem. That is why we must continue to pursue a wide range of actions to ensure the safety and wellbeing of Scottish Prison Service (SPS) staff and prisoners. We need to make sure that prisons can function effectively, focus on those who pose the greatest risk of harm and provide support to help reduce reoffending and help integration back into the community. Protecting victims and public safety remains an absolute priority.

Scotland is not alone in facing this challenge. Across the UK and elsewhere there has been an increase in prison populations and governments have had to implement a range of actions to address this.

This information sheet summarises the range of actions the Scottish Government, Scottish Prison Service and the wider justice sector are taking to manage the prison population in a safe and sustainable way, including a change in legislation for the release point of short-term prisoners. 

Prisoner (Early Release) (Scotland) Bill

On 26 November 2024 the Scottish Parliament voted in favour of a Bill that will bring about an immediate and sustained reduction in the prison population. The Prisoners (Early Release) (Scotland) Bill will change the point of release for most short-term prisoners - those serving sentences of less than four years. This change will apply to eligible prisoners currently serving short-term sentences and those who are sentenced in future.

Currently most short-term prisoners are released from prison custody once they have served half (50%) of their sentence, the bill changes this release point to following two fifths (40%) of their sentence.

This change will not apply to prisoners who are serving all, or part, of their sentence for sexual offences or domestic abuse offences. These prisoners will continue to be released once they have served 50% of their sentence.

This change to the release point is likely to commence from February 2025. On commencement those who have already served over 40% of their sentence will be released in three tranches over six weeks. This is to allow the Scottish Prison Service and other delivery organisations to prepare to implement the change to release point. 

It is estimated that the sentenced population will be reduced by approximately 5% compared to what it otherwise would have been. Based on the changes commencing in early 2025, we estimate that the population could be reduced by between 260 and 390 people.

As soon as possible two years following commencement, Scottish Ministers must publish a report about the operation of the Act. The report must include information about the prison population and specific information about those who were released in the initial tranches.

The bill also allows for subordinate legislation making powers to be used in the future to amend the point of release for long-term prisoners on non-parole licence by secondary legislation. Long-term prisoners are people serving sentences of over four years. This is a reinstatement of a power which applied before the Prisoners (Control of Release) Act 2015 changed  the release point to a fixed period of time - 6 months before the end of the prisoner’s sentence.

Scottish Ministers must consult before bringing forward any proposal to change the point of release for long or short-term prisoners via secondary legislation and must seek to make a statement to Parliament which outlines the reasons for proposing the change, the consultation that was carried out and what information will be available to victims.

Support for victims of crime

We recognise that changing the release point for most short-term prisoners may be concerning for victims of crime. We understand that it is essential that victims of crime can access clear and accurate information about this change to understand if and how the prisoner in their case may be impacted.

We are working closely with victim support organisations (including Victim Support Scotland, ASSIST, Scottish Women’s Aid, Rape Crisis Scotland, and Children 1st) to ensure there is clear information available for victims. These organisations are available to help and provide support to victims of crime at any stage in their journey. This support is free and available online, over the phone and in person.

Victims of crime can receive information about the prisoner in their case including the prisoner's release date via the Victim Notification Scheme (VNS) or Victim Information Scheme (VIS). Victims who are not currently enrolled in the VNS or the VIS can sign up at any point. Victim Support Scotland can support you to join up to these notification schemes. These schemes can be joined at any time.

Other actions to manage the rising prison population

The Bill is part of a range of actions to address the rising prison population.

We have increased investment in justice through a 10% increase in the Prison Services resource budget this year. We also increased our funding to community justice by £14 million this year to a total of £148 million to further strengthen alternatives to custody. We want to see a sustained increase, where appropriate, in the use of community sentences as well as other interventions such as diversion from prosecution, structured deferred sentences, and bail supervision.

We have increased the use of electronically monitored bail which is now available in every local authority and we continue to optimise the appropriate use of Home Detention Curfew (HDC) which allows certain prisoners who have met the requirements of a risk assessment to spend up to 180 days in the community.

People released from custody on HDC are subject to a range of conditions and an electronically monitored curfew and can be recalled to prison for breach of their conditions. We plan to introduce regulations that would enable GPS technology to be used to further monitor individuals being released on HDC. We are also considering options for expanding the time that prisoners who have passed the necessary risk assessments can be granted HDC.  

The Scottish Prison Service is working to optimise use of the prison estate. All children have been moved from HMP & YOI Polmont to secure accommodation following implementation of the Children (Care and Justice) (Scotland) Act 2024 which has also created additional capacity for adults.

We have also announced our intention to establish a Sentencing and Penal Policy Review to make recommendations for longer term action in this area before the end of this Parliamentary session. 

Emergency early release

In June 2024 the Scottish Parliament agreed regulations enabling the early release of some short-term prisoners. This was in response to critically high numbers of prisoners within the Scottish Prison Service estate. Like the Prisoner (Early Release) (Scotland) Bill, this was not a decision taken lightly, and we made it clear that emergency release would not bring about a sustained reduction in the prison population. It was necessary to provide immediate relief to the pressure on the prison system and ensure the safety of Scottish Prison Service staff and those in their care.

During the emergency release process only short-term prisoners serving sentences of under four years and with fewer than 180 days left to serve were eligible for release. No one serving sentences for domestic abuse, a sexual offences or subject to non-harassment orders were eligible for release. In addition, Governors were given veto powers if a prisoner presented an immediate risk to a specific individual or group or themselves.

During emergency early release, 477 people were released in four tranches during June and July. Of those released early 65% had 90 days or less left to serve and 79% were serving 2 years or less.

Comparisons with other countries

Other countries are also facing rising prison populations. The UK Government is continuing to take action to respond to the rising prison population in England and Wales.

From October 2023, the previous UK Government released over 10,000 prisoners up to 70 days early. The new UK Government has taken further steps, changing rules around release so that some prisoners serving Standard Determinate Sentences will be released following 40% of their sentence, rather than 50% as at present. The first prisoners, reported to be around 1,700, were released on 10 September with a second tranche of around 1,100 prisoners released on 22 October. Further releases are planned over the next 18 months, with around 5,500 prison places expected to be freed up.

The UN and international NGOs are clear that more community-based disposals should be pursued to reduce prison overcrowding and reoffending.