Prison population - proposed bill on release point for short term prisoners: information note

Introduction

As of 10 October the prison population is 8,322. This is approaching some of the highest levels seen. The latest projections through to January 2025 indicate that the prison population will continue to rise. Without intervention this is an unsustainable position for our prison service.

There are many reasons for this rise. Over the last decade the average length of prison sentences has increased by 32% and there has been a consistently high remand population. In addition, the prison population is increasingly complex, with many groups requiring to be accommodated separately from others.

There is no single reason for the increase in the prison population and there is no simple solution to this problem. That is why we must continue to pursue a wide range of actions to ensure the safety and wellbeing of Scottish Prison Service (SPS) staff and prisoners. We need to make sure that prisons can function effectively, focus on those who pose the greatest risk of harm and provide support to help reduce reoffending and help integration back into the community. Protecting victims and public safety remains an absolute priority.

Scotland is not alone in facing this challenge. Across the UK and elsewhere there has been an increase in prison populations and governments have had to implement a range of actions to address this.

This information sheet summarises the range of actions the Scottish Government, Scottish Prison Service and the wider justice sector are taking to manage the prison population in a safe and sustainable way. More information is available in our policy position paper published in July 2024.

Legislation to change the point of release for short-term prisoners

One of the ways we can reduce the pressure on prisons is by considering changing how long people spend in prison custody as part of their sentence.

In July 2024 we launched a consultation seeking views on a proposed Bill to change the point of release under licence conditions for long-term prisoners. Long-term prisoners are people serving sentences of over four years.

A range of organisations and members of the public responded to the consultation providing a broad spectrum of views. The responses to the consultation have been published alongside an analysis of the findings. Some respondents were in favour of increasing the time some long-term prisoners spend under supervision in the community as part of a sentence to help reintegration. However, there were also concerns about how quickly this change could safely be made and that it might increase pressure on community resources.

We considered the views shared during the consultation process and engaged further with partners to inform our next steps. Taking into account concerns around changing the release point for long-term prisoners, we are instead proposing a change to the release point for short-term prisoners. In November we will introduce a Bill in Parliament to change the point of release for most short-term prisoners serving sentences of less than four years.

Currently most short-term prisoners are released from prison custody once they have served 50% of their sentence. The Bill will propose that most short-term prisoners are instead released once they have served 40% of their sentence. These changes would not apply to prisoners who are currently serving all, or part, of their sentence for sexual offences or domestic abuse offences. These prisoners would continue to be released once they have served 50% of their sentence.

It is intended that the new release point would apply to eligible prisoners currently serving short-term sentences and those who are sentenced in future.

It is anticipated that this change would have a sustained impact on the prison population. It is estimated that the sentenced population would be reduced by approximately 5% compared to what it otherwise would have been. The future population is uncertain but if the change was implemented in early 2025 we estimate that the population could be reduced by between 260 and 390.

We will request that the Scottish Parliament look at the Bill on an emergency basis. This means that the three stages happen more quickly than for a normal Bill. The Bill will still be scrutinised by MSPs in Parliament before it can become an Act and implemented.

More information, including impact assessments, will be provided when the Bill is introduced in November. If the Bill is passed, then the change to release point would commence from February 2025. The first releases would be organised in tranches, rather than there being one larger release of eligible prisoners. This will allow the SPS and partners to prepare to implement the change in release point.  

Support for victims of crime

We recognise that changes to release processes can be unsettling for victims and that clear and accurate information is essential for victims to understand if and how the prisoner in their case may be impacted.

We will work closely with Victim Support Organisations to ensure there is clear information available for victims. These organisations are available to help and provide support to victims of crime at any stage in their journey. This support is free and available online, over the phone and in person.

Victims of crime can receive information about the prisoner in their case via the Victim Notification Scheme (VNS) or Victim Information Scheme (VIS). This means victims can receive information including the prisoner’s release date. Victims who are not currently enrolled in the VNS or the VIS can sign up at any point if they wish to do so. 

Other actions to manage the rising prison population

The Bill, alongside an earlier emergency early release scheme over the summer are just part of a range of actions to address the rising prison population.

We have increased investment in justice through a 10% increase in the Prison Services resource budget this year. We also increased our funding to community justice by £14million this year to a total of £148 million to further strengthen alternatives to custody. We want to see a sustained increase, where appropriate, in the use of community sentences as well as other interventions such as diversion from prosecution, structured deferred sentences, and bail supervision.

We have increased the use of electronically monitored bail which is now available in every local authority area and continue to optimise the appropriate use of Home Detention Curfew (HDC).

People released from custody on HDC are subject to a range of conditions and an electronically monitored curfew and can be recalled to prison for breach of their conditions. We plan to introduce Regulations to Parliament that would enable GPS technology to be used to further monitor individuals being released on HDC. We are also considering options for expanding the time that prisoners who have passed the necessary risk assessments can be granted HDC.  

The Scottish Prison Service is working to optimise use of the prison estate. All children have been moved from HMP & YOI Polmont to secure care following implementation of the Children (Care and Justice) (Scotland) Act 2024 which has also created additional capacity for adults.

We have also announced our intention to establish a Sentencing and Penal Policy Review to make recommendations for longer term action in this area before the end of this Parliamentary term. 

Emergency early release

In June 2024 the Scottish Parliament agreed regulations enabling the early release of some short-term prisoners. This was in response to critically high numbers of prisoners within the Scottish Prison Service estate. This was not a decision taken lightly, and we made it clear that emergency release would not bring about a sustained reduction in the prison population. However emergency release was effectively in temporarily reducing the population to ensure the safety of Scottish Prison Service staff and those in their care and ensure those who pose the greatest risk of harm were accommodated.

During the emergency release process only short-term prisoners serving sentences of under four years and with fewer than 180 days left to serve were eligible for release. No one serving sentences for domestic abuse, a sexual offences or subject to non-harassment orders were eligible for release. In addition, Governors were given veto powers if a prisoner presented an immediate risk to a specific individual or group or themselves.

During emergency early release, 477 people were released in four traches during June and July. Of those released early 65% had 90 days or less left to serve and 79% were serving 2 years or less.

We have set out that there is no plan for another emergency release scheme. If changing circumstances made it necessary and proportionate to take such action, we would take proposals to Parliament for approval. In the meantime, we will work with SPS and relevant partner organisations on contingency plans, in case action becomes necessary to keep our prisons safe.

Comparisons with other countries

Other countries are also facing rising prison populations. The UK Government is continuing to take action to respond to the rising prison population in England and Wales.

From October 2023, the previous Conservative UK Government released over 10,000 prisoners up to 70 days early. The new Labour UK Government has taken further steps, changing rules around release so that some prisoners serving Standard Determinate Sentences will be released following 40% of their sentence, rather than 50% as at present. The first prisoners, reported to be around 1,700, were released on 10 September, with further releases planned over the next 18 months, with around 5500 prison places expected to be freed up.

The UN and international NGOs are clear that more community-based disposals should be pursued to reduce prison overcrowding and reoffending.    

Scottish Government

Justice Directorate
10 October 2024