The Promise Story of Progress: How is Scotland doing in its progress towards keeping the promise?

Part One: Vision, Outcomes and Indicators

Ten Vision Statements

1. Supporting children to stay with their families Where children are in their families and feel loved they must stay – and families must be given support together to nurture that love and overcome the difficulties which get in the way

2. Supporting carers and providing stability Scotland must limit the number of moves that children experience and support carers to continue to care.

3. Education Schools in Scotland must be ambitious for care experienced children and ensure they have all they need to thrive, recognising that they may experience difficulties associated with their life story.

4. Brothers and Sisters Where living with their family is not possible, children must stay with their brothers and sisters where safe to do so and belong to a loving home, staying there for as long as needed.

5. Physical Restraint Scotland must strive to become a nation that does not restrain its children.

6. Mental Health Scotland must seek to uphold the wellbeing of care-experienced children and young people, and ensure that there is timely access to mental health support before crisis point so that children can avoid hospitalisation.

7. Health Care experienced children and young people have access to support ensuring that their health needs are fully met and potential for good health is maximised.

8. Justice Scotland must stop locking up children who have often experienced the failures of the state in the provision of their care.

9. Aftercare Young adults for whom Scotland has taken on parenting responsibility must have a right to return to care and have access to services and supportive people to nurture them.

10.Support for care experienced adults Care Experienced adults must have a right to access to supportive, caring services for as long as they require them. Those services and the people who work in them must have a primary focus on the development and maintenance of supportive relationships that help people access what they need to thrive.

The Promise Progress Framework

Attached to each of the ten vision statements are a set of outcomes which need to improve by 2030, and the indicators that will provide a contextualised understanding of progress.

The indicators are split into two groups:

• Core Indicators are ones that directly relate to the change the promise can directly influence.
• Contextual indicators track the context within which the promise is operating and children, families, and care experienced adults are living.

All these indicators come from a range of currently available public sources. Most of these are available now and the data are presented using the baseline year of 2020. A small number of indicators specific to the care experienced community are in development with partners and will appear as the Framework iterates.

The indicators come from a range of sources and, when taken together, help us understand how the ‘system’ is changing, as well as the impacts this is having on outcomes. Extensive engagement has shown that reporting will need to include acknowledgement of wider contextual data which goes beyond just the care experienced community, but areas where we know the care community are likely to be over-represented. Blending indicators helps understand the conditions the ‘system’ is operating under, and how outcomes for care experienced people may be affected where data with care experienced flags are unavailable.

Overview of Framework

Vision statement 1: Supporting children to stay with their families

Where children are in their families and feel loved they must stay – and families must be given support together to nurture that love and overcome the difficulties which get in the way

Foundation: Family

Outcome 1:

The rate of children entering care decreases. For those that do need to enter care, a higher proportion are able to stay living at home with parents, or in a family setting in kinship care or foster care

Core Indicators:

1. Number and rate of children in the ‘care system’ in Scotland during the year

2. Number of children (0-17 years) entering the ‘care system’ during the year

3. Number and percentage of children in the ‘care system’ who are living at home with parents each year

4. Number and percentage of children in the ‘care system’ living in the community each year

5. Number and percentage of children who are living in kinship care each year

6. Number and percentage of children who are living in foster care each year

7. Number and percentage of children who are living in residential care each year

8. Average number of children living in secure care on a given day throughout the year

Outcome 2:

The underlying universal support system must support all families and identify those who need more support.

Core Indicators:

1. Rate of registrations to the child protection register from initial and pre-birth Case Conferences during the year per 1,000 0–15-year-olds

2. Percentage of child death reviews which identified modifiable factors in a child's death

Contextual Indicators

1. Percentage of children with a developmental concern recorded at their 13-15 months, 27-30 months, and 4–5-year reviews

2. Number and percentage of children living in temporary accommodation

3. Three-year averaged estimate of the number and proportion of children living in relative poverty after housing costs

4. Three-year averaged estimate of the number and proportion of children living in absolute poverty after housing costs

5. Number and rate of children on the Child Protection Register, with domestic abuse listed as a concern identified

Vision statement 2: Carers and Stability

Scotland must limit the number of moves that children experience and support carers to continue to care.

Foundation: Care

Outcome 1: The average number of homes a child experiences each year decreases.

Core Indicator

1. Percentage of children who have experienced 3 or more homes within the last year

Outcome 2: Where living with their family is not possible, there must be sufficient availability of carers who can provide stable loving homes for children.

Core Indicators

1. Number of registered foster care households per 1,000 0–17-year-olds in Scotland, and relative to number of children in the ‘care system’

2. Number of foster carers deregistrations in Scotland in the last year

3. Care Homes for children and young people and residential additional support needs school’s workforce:

i. Size of WTE (Whole-time equivalent) workforce, rounded to the nearest 10

ii. Vacancy rate in Care Homes for children and young people

iii. Vacancy rate in additional support needs schools

4. Secure care workforce in terms of:

i. Size of WTE workforce, rounded to the nearest 10

ii. Vacancy rate

5. Stability index for the residential childcare (made up of care homes for children and young people, special school accommodation services, and secure accommodation services for children looked after away from home) workforce.

Outcome 3: There must be sufficient capacity within children's social services to recruit loving, attentive carers and support them to continue to care, and provide children and young people with stability when moves need to happen.

Core indicators:

1. Staff working in children’s fieldwork services, including qualified social workers:

i. WTE (rounded to nearest 10)

ii. Rate per 100,000 0-17 year olds

iii. Stability index

Vision statement 3: Education

Schools in Scotland must be ambitious for care experienced children and ensure they have all they need to thrive, recognising that they may experience difficulties associated with their life story.

Foundation: Scaffolding

Outcome 1: Care experienced young people spend more time in school

Core indicators

1. Rate of attendance for pupils who experienced care at some point within the school year

2. Cases of exclusions per 1,000 pupils who experienced care at some point within the school year

Outcome 2: The average attainment of care experienced young people increases

Core Indicators

1. Proportion of pupils who experienced care at some point within the school year at stages P1, P4, P7 and S3 achieving the curriculum for excellence level relevant to their stage

2. Proportion of pupils who experienced care during their last year at school achieving at least one SCQF level 5 qualification (or better)

3. Proportion of pupils who experienced care during their last year at school achieving at least 1 SCQF level 6 qualification (or better)

4. Proportion of pupils who experienced care during their last year at school in a positive destination 9 months after leaving school.

Vision statement 4: Brothers and Sisters

Where living with their family is not possible, children must stay with their brothers and sisters where safe to do so and belong to a loving home, staying there for as long as needed

Foundation: Care

Outcome 1: The number of brother and sisters staying together in the ‘care system’ increases

Core Indicators

1. Proportion of family groups living in foster families who have been separated

2. Number and proportion of new foster care households approved for family groups of 2 children, and 3 or more children

Outcome 2: The number of children who cannot live with their family living in a family setting increase.

Core indicators:

1. The number and proportion of children looked after away from home with foster carers or kinship carers.

2. Number of children placed in secure care on 31st July by Scottish local authorities, and as proportion of all children who are looked after.

Vision statement 5: Physical Restraint

Scotland must strive to become a nation that does not restrain its children

Foundation: Care

Outcome 1: The use of physical restraint in residential care should be reduced, and where possible eliminated.

Core Indicators:

1. Number of incidences of physical restraint reported between 1st January and 31st December in care homes for children and young people

2. Number of incidences of seclusion reported between 1st January and 31st December in care homes for children and young people

3. Number of incidences of physical restraint reported between 1st January and 31st December in secure care

4. Number of incidences of seclusion reported between 1st January and 31st December in secure care

5. Number of incidences of physical restraint reported between 1st January and 31st December in school accommodation services

6. Number of incidences of seclusion reported between 1st January and 31st December in school accommodation services

Vision statement 6: Mental Health and Wellbeing

Scotland must seek to uphold the wellbeing of care-experienced children and young people and ensure that there is timely access to mental health support before crisis point so that children can avoid hospitalisation.

Foundation: Scaffolding

Outcome 1: Support for child and adolescent mental health increases

Core Indicators:

1. Percentage of children receiving Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services treatment within referral guidelines

Outcome 2: The number of staff employed in Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services is proportionate to demand.

Core indicators:

1. Number of staff employed in Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services

Vision statement 7: Health

Care experienced children and young people have access to support ensuring that their health needs are fully met

Foundation: Scaffolding

Outcome 1: Health outcomes, and access to health services improve for care experienced children and young people

Vision statement 8: Justice

Scotland must stop locking up children who have often experienced the failures of the state in the provision of their care.

Foundation: Scaffolding

Outcome 1: The number of young people entering young offenders’ institutions decreases

Core Indicators

1. Number of under 21s in custody

2. Number of referrals to the children’s reporter on offence grounds

Vision statement 9: Aftercare

Young adults for whom Scotland have taken on parenting responsibility must have a right to return to care and have access to services and supportive people to nurture them.

Foundation: Care

Outcome 1: The number of young care experienced people receiving support increases

Core Indicators

1. Proportion of young people who are eligible for aftercare services who are receiving services

2. Number and proportion of eligible young people who are going on to continuing care

Vision statement 10: Support for Care Experienced Adults

Older care experienced people must have a right to access to supportive, caring services for as long as they require them. Those services and the people who work in them must have a primary focus on the development and maintenance of supportive relationships that help people access what they need to thrive.

Foundation: Care

Outcome 1: The number of households experiencing homelessness decreases

Contextual Indicators:

1. Number and rate of people of working age living in poverty

2. Number of households living in temporary accommodation

3. Number of households assessed as homeless or threatened with homelessness

Outcome 2: Support for people who use drugs or alcohol increases

Contextual Indicator:

1. Number and proportion of people receiving help for problematic drug and alcohol use within waiting times standard

Outcome 2: Support for adult mental health increases

Contextual Indicator:

1. Number and proportion of people receiving psychological therapy within waiting times standard.