The Promise Story of Progress: How is Scotland doing in its progress towards keeping the promise?

Part Two: Where Is Scotland Now?

Progress is being made in Scotland’s journey to keep the promise. This section presents an overview of what statistical data tells us so far and begins to tell the story of how far Scotland has come since the promise was made in 2020, up to what we know at the end of 2024.

While national level statistics cannot be used in isolation to determine whether the experiences of Scotland's care experienced children, young people and adults are improving, they can help to guide the ‘system’s’ understanding of where progress is being made, and which areas warrant further attention.

The section below presents the evidence which is available around each of the ten vision statements. 2020 has been selected as the starting point for understanding progress at the national level as it was the year the promise was made. However, where appropriate, a longer time series is included to help provide context to the impact the COVID-19 pandemic and other events may have had on various outcomes and help to understand whether the trends seen since the introduction of the promise are a continuation of existing trends or not.

Scotland’s National Context

As Scotland focuses activity to keep the promise it does with awareness to the wide range of factors and experiences which can associate and have an impact on risk of involvement in the ‘care system’. Understanding this wider context and interpreting the trends is an important part of demonstrating overall progress, this includes:

Child Poverty

Poverty and income estimates are shown as three-year rolling (overlapping) averages. Taking the average over three years reduces fluctuation due to sampling variation and shows trends and differences between groups more clearly. The latest assessments looking at 3-year trends suggest child poverty rates are broadly stable in Scotland^[1].

Due to a missing year of data in 20/21 and the ongoing impact of the pandemic on survey response rates, the sample size is much reduced in the latest three periods. This means that data is more volatile, and sudden changes need to be interpreted with caution. For example, the single-year estimates for relative poverty, absolute poverty and low income and material deprivation increased somewhat in 2022-23, after a similar drop during 2021-22. Low-income households, who spend a greater proportion of their income on food and energy, will have been disproportionately affected by the cost-of-living crisis and other economic pressures. Statistics to be published in Spring 2025 will confirm if the interim targets on child poverty in Scotland have been met.

Homelessness And Temporary Accommodation

Families who are navigating difficulties associated with finding stable accommodation may also experience interactions with the ‘care system’. On 31^st March 2023, there were 10,110 children (as part of 4,910 households with children or pregnant women) living in temporary accommodation in Scotland, a 5% increase on the year before ^[2]. There were 33,619 homeless households in 2023-24, which included 15,474 children. This marked a decrease in the number of children of 7%.

Early Childhood Development

Adverse experiences early in life can have lifelong consequences for a child or young person’s physical and mental wellbeing. Traumatic experiences and other adversities in early life, as well as the relationships a child forms with their primary carers, can all have an impact on their developmental outcomes. In 2022/23, 12% of children who received a 13-15 month review, 18% of those at 27-30 month review, and 17% of those at 4-5 year review had a concern noted about at least one area of their development. Compared with the previous year, the percentage of children with a concern noted about at least one area of development was similar at the 13-15 month and 27-30 month reviews, but higher at the 4-5 year review (17% in 2022/23 vs 15% in 2021/22).^[3]

Child And Adolescent Mental Health

Evidence suggests that care experienced children and young people may be more likely to have experiences throughout their childhood which make them more likely to experience poor mental health than their peers in the general population. At the national level, in the 3 months up to June 2024, 8,651 children and young people were referred to Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services in Scotland. This was a 9.2% decrease on the same time the year before. Referrals to Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services fell significantly in the quarter up to June 2020 during the first few months of the COVID-19 pandemic, however when comparing further back to the same time in 2019, the number of referrals (8,520) was similar to the number in the 3 months up to June 2023. In June 2019, 69.8% of children and young people referred to Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services were seen within 18 weeks, this increased by 14.3 percentage points by the quarter ending June 2024, when 84.1% of children and young people were seen within 18 weeks of referral

Supporting Children to Stay with Their Families

Vision Statement One

“Where children are in their families and feel loved, they must stay – and families must be given support together to nurture that love and overcome the difficulties which get in the way.”

The Promise ^[4], Page 15

Outcome 1: The rate of children entering care decreases. For those that do need to enter care, a higher proportion are able to stay living at home with parents, or in a family setting in kinship care or foster care.

These indicators aim to understand whether there are fewer children entering care in Scotland and for those who do, whether living at home with parents, or in family-like settings is being prioritised. The promise is clear that families should be supported to stay together during difficult times, and that where safe to do so children should be supported to stay with their parents wherever possible.

Indicator 1:

Core: Number and rate of children in the ‘care system’ in Scotland during the year ^[5].

The Data:

Indicator	2020	2023
Number	14,458	12,206
Rate per 1,000 0-17 year olds	14.1	12.1

Analysis:

• In 2022-23 there were 12,206 children in the ‘care system’ in Scotland. This is a 14% decrease since 2020 (14,262) and a 16% decrease since 2019-20 (14,458).
• In 2022-23, the rate of ‘looked after’ children per 1,000 children (0-17 years) was 12.1 down from 14.1 in 2020.

Summary:

• The number of children in Scotland’s ‘care system’ each year is decreasing and is the lowest this figure has been since 2005/06.
• Despite a decreasing overall number of 0–17-year-olds in Scotland over the same period, the rate of children who are ‘looked after’ in every 1,000 children has also fallen

Indicator 2:

Core: Number of children (0-17 years) entering the ‘care system’ during the year^[5].

The Data:

2020	2023
3,490	3,004

Analysis:

• In 2023, a total of 3,004 children entered the ‘care system’ in Scotland. This is a 14% decrease since 2020 (3,490 children)

Summary:

• The number of children entering the ‘care system’ each year is decreasing overall
• The number of children entering the ‘care system’ in 2023 is therefore lower than in 2020

Indicator 3:

Core: Number and percentage of children in the ‘care system’ who are living at home with parents each year^[5].

The data:

Indicator	2020	2023
Number	3,563	2,466
Percentage	25	20

Analysis:

• In 2022/23, 2,466 children in the ‘care system’ lived at home with their parents. This is a 31% decrease since 2020 when 3,563 children lived at home.

Summary:

• Both the number and percentage of children in the ‘care system’ living at home with their parents is decreasing each year and has been since 2020.

Indicator 4:

Number and percentage of children in the ‘care system’ living in the community each year^[5].

The data:

2020	2023
13,022	10,886

Analysis:

• In 2023, 10,886 children (89% of all children in the ‘care system’) lived in the community in family-like settings. This is a 3% decrease on the 11,185 (90%) in 2022, a 9% decrease on the 11,933 (90%) children in 2021, and a 16% decrease on the 13,022 (90%) children in 2020.

Summary:

• The number of children in the ‘care system’ living in the community is decreasing and has been since the promise was made.
• The percentage of children living in the community as a proportion of all children in the ‘care system’ is stable but has seen a small decrease between 2022 and 2023.

Indicator 5:

Number and percentage of children who are living in kinship care each year^[5].

Data:

Indicator	2020	2023
Number	4,456	4,154
Percentage of all children in the ‘care system’	31	34

Analysis:

• In 2023, there were 4,154 children (34% of all children in the ‘care system’) living in kinship care, a 2% decrease on the 4,226 (34%) children in 2022, a 6% decrease on the 4,410 (33%) children in 2021 and an 7% decrease on the 4,456 (31%) children in 2020.

Summary:

• The number of children living with kinship carers is decreasing and has been since the promise was made.
• The percentage of children living in kinship care as a proportion of all children in the ‘care system’ is increasing.

Indicator 6:

Core: Number and percentage of children who are living in foster care each year^[5].

Data:

Indicator	2020	2023
Number	4,744	3,927
Percentage of all children in the ‘care system’	33	32

Analysis:

• In 2023, a total of 3,927 children (32% of all children in the ‘care system’) were living in foster care, a 5% decrease from the 4,115 (33%) children in 2022, a 12% decrease from the 4,446 (34%) children in 2021 and a 17% decrease from the 4,744 (33%) children in 2020

Summary:

• The number of children living in foster care is decreasing and has been since the promise was made.
• The percentage of children living with foster carers as a proportion of all children in the ‘care system’ is stable but has seen a small decrease between 2022 and 2023.

Indicator 7:

Core: Number and percentage of children who are living in residential care each year^[5].

Data:

Indicator	2020	2023
Number	1,436	1,320
Percentage of all children in the ‘care system’	10	11

Analysis:

• In 2023, there were 1,320 children (11% of all children in the ‘care system’) living in residential care, a 5% increase from the 1,262 children (10%) in 2022.
• Prior to this, the number of children living in residential care had been decreasing with 1,267 (10%) children in 2021, a 12% decrease from the 1,436 (10%) children in 2020.

Summary:

• In the last year, the number of children living in residential care has increased, following annual decreases since the promise was made.
• The percentage of children living in residential care as a proportion of all children in the ‘care system’ is more stable but has seen a small increase between 2022 and 2023.

Indicator 8:

Core: Average number of children living in secure care on a given day throughout the year^[5].

The data:

Indicator	2020	2023
Number	82	59

Analysis:

• During 2022-23, there were an average of 59 children living in secure care, a decrease of 28% since 2019-20.

Summary:

• The number of children and young people living in secure care is currently decreasing.

Outcome 2: The underlying universal support system must support all families and identify those who need more support.

The promise ultimately aims to reduce the number of children experiencing the ‘care system’ in Scotland, it is however important to understand whether this figure is falling because of supportive work going on in Scotland’s communities, or whether there is an alternative reason which means that risk is not being identified and addressed safely. Contextual indicators around risk factors associated with involvement with the ‘care system’ help to build an understanding of the challenges currently faced by Scotland’s families and the impacts they are having.

Indicator 1:

Core: Rate of registrations to the child protection register from initial and pre-birth Case Conferences during the year per 1,000 0-15 year olds^[5].

Data:

Indicator	2020	2023
Rate per 1,000 0-15 year olds	4.4[6]	3.5
Number	3,967	3,170

Analysis:

• From the 4,120 initial and pre-birth Case Conferences held during 2022-23, 3,170 registrations took place (3.5 per 1,000).
• This reflects a conversion rate from Case Conference to Registrations of around 77% (down from 79% in 2021-22)

Summary:

• The conversion rate from Case Conferences to registration is currently decreasing and has been since the promise was made.

Indicator 2:

Core: Percentage of child death reviews which identified modifiable factors in a child's death^[7].

Data:

Indicator	18 months up to March 2023
Percentage	17

Analysis:

• In March 2024, most reviews (79%) identified no modifiable factors in the child’s death.
• In 17% of reviews factors were identified that may have contributed to the child’s vulnerability, ill health or death.
• In less than 5% of reviews, review teams found there to be insufficient information to make a judgement about this.

Summary:

• This report in March 2024 was the first national data overview, and contained data covering the 18 months up to March 2023.
• Insights from this report are based on a small number of deaths where modifiable factors were recorded for Scottish children. In the case of the 18 months up to March 2023, this accounted for 31 children. This small number means caution must be used when interpreting changes from one year to the next.

Indicator 3:

Contextual: Percentage of children with a developmental concern recorded at their 13-15 months, 27-30 months, and 4-5 year reviews^[8].

The data:

Indicator	2020	2023
Percentage at 13-15 months	10	12
Percentage at 27-30 months	14	18
Percentage at 4-5 years	13	17

Analysis:

• In 2022/23, 12% of children who received a 13-15 month review had at least one developmental concern recorded, compared to 12% in 2021/22 and 10% in 2020/21.
• In 2022/23, 18% of children who received a 27-30 month review had at least one developmental concern recorded, compared to 18% in 2021/22 and 15% in 2020/21.
• In 2022/23, 17% of children who received a 4-5 year review had at least one developmental concern recorded, compared to 15% in 2021/22 and 13% in 2020/21.

Summary:

• The percentage of children who have at least one developmental concern recorded at all three developmental reviews that are offered pre age 5 is increasing.

Indicator 4:

Contextual: Number of children in temporary accommodation^[2].

Data:

Indicator	2020	2024
Number	7,355	10,110

Analysis:

• There were 10,110 children in temporary accommodation as of 31 March 2024. This is the highest in the time series and compares to 9,595 children (5% increase) in 2023, 8,805 children (15% increase) in 2022, 7,575 children (33% increase) in 2021 and 7,355 children (37% increase) in 2020.

Summary:

• The number of children living in temporary accommodation is increasing and has been since the promise was made.

Indicator 5:

Contextual: Three year averaged estimates^[9] of the number and proportion of children living in relative poverty after housing costs ^[10].

Data:

Indicator	2020-23
Number	240,000
Percentage	24

Analysis:

• It is estimated that 24% of children (240,000 children each year) were living in relative poverty after housing costs in 2020-23. Before housing costs, it is estimated that 23% of children (230,000 children each year) were in relative poverty

Summary:

• Rates of child poverty are shown to be broadly stable.
• The after-housing-cost rise appears to have stopped rising now, whereas the before-housing costs measure continues to rise slightly.

Indicator 6:

Contextual: Three year averaged estimates of the number and proportion of children living in absolute poverty after housing costs^[10].

Data:

Indicator	2020-23
Number	210,000
Percentage	21

Analysis:

• 210,000 children in 2022/23 were living in absolute poverty after housing costs. This equates to 21% of all children in Scotland. Before housing costs, absolute child poverty affected 190 000 children. This equates to 19% of all children in Scotland.

Summary:

• Absolute poverty rate for children is broadly stable.

Indicator 7:

Contextual: Number and rate of children on the Child Protection Register with domestic abuse listed as a concern identified^[5].

Data:

Indicator	2020	2023
Number	1,143	850
Percentage of all children on the Child Protection Register	43[11]	41

Analysis:

• In 2023, 850 children (41%) of children on the Child Protection Register had domestic abuse listed as a concern identified. This compares to 1,143 children (43%) in 2020.

Summary:

• The number and the rate of children on the Child Protection Register with domestic abuse listed as a concern identified is decreasing.

Caregivers and stability

Vision Statement Two

“Scotland must limit the number of moves that children experience and support carers to continue to care.”

The Promise^[4], Page 67

Outcome 1: The average number of home moves a child experiences decreases.

Providing children experiencing the ‘care system’ with stability is key during times spent living away from their parents. Unnecessary moves make it more difficult for children to make friends and build relationships, settle at school and in neighborhoods and communities.

Indicator 1:

Core: Number and percentage of children who have experienced 3 or more homes^[12] within the last year^[5].

Data:

Indicator	2020	2023
Number	575	497
Percentage	4.0	4.1

Analysis:

• The proportion of children experiencing three or more homes within the last year has been around 4% since 2020.

Summary:

• The proportion of looked after children who are experiencing multiple placement moves within the year have always made up a small proportion of the overall looked after population, and this figure has been stable in recent years.

Outcome 2: Where living with their family is not possible, there must be sufficient availability of carers who can provide stable loving homes for children.

It is important that children are able to form secure attachments based on loving, consistent relationships, with those who care for them. These indicators help to build an understanding of not just whether there is sufficient availability of safe, loving environments for children to live in, but also whether there is sufficient retention of carers over time to provide children and young people with the opportunity to form stable relationships with those who care for them.

Indicator 1:

Core: Number of registered foster care households in Scotland, and relative to number of children in the ‘care system’ ^[13].

Data:

Indicator	2020	2023
Number	3,540	2,998

Analysis:

• The number of registered foster care households has been decreasing each year since 2020, falling by 15.3% between 2020 and 2023 to 2,988 approved households.
• By comparison, the overall number of ‘looked after’ children fell by 1.9% over the same period.

Summary:

• The number of registered foster care households has been falling each year in Scotland, at a faster rate than the fall in the number of overall children experiencing care in the same period.

Indicator 2:

Core: Number of foster carer deregistrations in Scotland in the last year^[13].

Data:

Indicator	2020	2023
Number	349	405

Analysis:

• 405 foster carer households deregistered in 2023, an increase of 16% from 349 in 2020.

Summary:

• More foster carers in Scotland are deregistering each year.
• In 2023, the number of new foster care households (178) was less than half of the number of foster care households that deregistered (405).

Indicator 3:

Core: Care Homes for children and young people and residential additional support needs schools^[14] workforce ^[15]:

i. Size of WTE (Whole-time equivalent) workforce, rounded to the nearest 10^[16]

ii. Vacancy rate in care homes for children and young people

iii. Vacancy rate in residential additional support needs schools

Data:

Indicator	2020	2023
Size of WTE workforce	6,300	6,080
Vacancy rate (care homes for children and young people)	4.9	7.4
Vacancy rate (residential additional support needs schools)	3.9	7.2

Analysis:

• In 2023, there were 6,080 WTE (Whole-time equivalent) staff working across Care Homes for children and young people and residential additional support needs schools (rounded to the nearest 10). This is 3.5% lower than the figure in 2020, when there were 6,300 WTE staff working across the two settings.
• Vacancy rates across these 2 settings are not yet available for 2023, but between 2021 and 2022 in care homes for children and young people, the vacancy rate fell by 0.5 percentage points from 7.9% to 7.4%. This is an increase compared to 2020, when the vacancy rate was 4.9%.
• In residential additional support needs schools, the vacancy rate remained the same between 2021 and 2022 at 7.2%. This is however higher than in 2020, when this was 3.9%.

Summary:

• The number of WTE staff working across Care Homes for children and young people and residential additional support needs schools has remained at a very similar level between 2020 and 2023.
• Vacancy rates across both settings types have increased between 2020 and 2022.

Indicator 4:

Core: The Secure accommodation services workforce^[15], in terms of:

i. Size of WTE workforce, rounded to the nearest 10

ii. Vacancy rate

Data:

Indicator	2020	Latest Data
Size of WTE workforce	360	380
Vacancy rate	2.5	10.0

Analysis:

• In secure care accommodation, there were 380 (rounded to the nearest 10) WTE staff working in 2023, a 9.5% decrease on the rounded figure the year before. The workforce in 2023 was 5.6% larger than in 2020.
• Vacancy rates are not yet available for 2023, however the vacancy rate rose sharply between 2021 and 2022, from 5.1% to 10%.

Summary:

• The workforce in Secure Care was larger in 2023 than it was in 2020 when the promise was made, but not as large as it was in 2022.
• The vacancy rate was 4 times as large in 2022 as it was in 2020.

Indicator 5:

Core: Stability index for the residential childcare (made up of care homes for children and young people, special school accommodation services, and secure accommodation services for children looked after away from home) workforce^[15],^[17].

Data:

Indicator	2020	2023
Stability index	79.6	73.0

Analysis:

• In 2023, the stability index of residential childcare (made up of care homes for children and young people, special school accommodation services, and secure accommodation services) was 73.0%, compared to 73.5% in 2022.

Summary:

• A stability index measures what proportion of staff were retained in the same post from one year to the next. In 2023, the stability index was 6.6 percentage points lower than it was in 2020.

Outcome 3: There must be sufficient capacity within children's social services to recruit loving, attentive carers and support them to continue to care, and provide children and young people with stability when moves need to happen.

Children's social workers provide vital support to carers to help them to continue to care. They also play a key role in developing care plans for children and young people and helping them to maintain the relationships that are important to them when living away from home. Considering the size of the workforce alongside vacancy rates provides an indication of the capacity to meet the support needs of carers and children.

Indicator 1:

Core: Staff working in children’s fieldwork services, including qualified social workers:^[15]

i.WTE (rounded to nearest 10)

ii.Rate per 100,000 0-17 year olds

iii.Stability index

Data:

Indicator	2020	2023
Size of overall WTE workforce	5,920	4,880
(social worker WTE workforce)	2,540	2,530
Rate per 100,000 0-17 year olds	472.6	481.5
(Social worker rate)	247.0	250.0
Stability index	80.8	74.7

Analysis:

• In 2023, there were 4,880 WTE staff working in Children’s fieldwork services, including 2,530 social workers (both figures rounded to the nearest 10). For the overall children’s fieldwork services workforce, this marks a very small increase of 0.4% compared to 2020. For social workers within children’s fieldwork services, figures in 2023 were 0.1% lower than they were in 2020.
• This equated to 481.5 WTE children’s fieldwork services staff per 100,000 0–17-year-olds, including 250.0 social workers. For overall children’s fieldwork services, this is an increase of 8.2 compared to 2020. For social workers working within these services, this is a slight increase compared to rates in 2020 (247.0 per 100,000 0–17-year-olds).
• The stability index for the overall Children’s fieldwork services was 74.7% in 2023, this was lower than in 2020 when it was 80.6%.

Summary:

• The overall WTE of staff working in children’s fieldwork services has not changed significantly since 2020.
• However, when considered within the context of a falling number of children in Scotland over this period, there have been increases in the number of fieldwork staff, including social workers, per 100,000 0-17 year olds in Scotland since 2020.
• The stability index across all of children’s fieldwork services was 5.9 percentage points lower in 2023 than it was in 2020.

Education:

Vision Statement Three

“Schools in Scotland must be ambitious for care experienced children and ensure they have all they need to thrive, recognising that they may experience difficulties associated with their life story.”

The Promise^[4], page 71

Outcome 1: Care experienced young people spend more time in school.

Schools in Scotland provide places, relationships and opportunities for children to access support and enjoy stable, nurturing relationships that prepare them for life beyond school. It is important to understand whether care experienced pupils are fully included at school, and supported to maintain attendance, engagement and learning.

Indicator 1:

Core: Rate of attendance of pupils who have experienced care at some point within the school year ^[18].

Data:

Indicator	2020/21	2022/23
Attendance rate	87.9	84.4

Analysis:

• In 2022/23, the attendance rate of pupils who experienced care in the last year was 84.4% on average. This is a decrease from 87.9% in 2020/21
• Looking further back to the last data point pre COVID-19 pandemic, the attendance rate for care experienced children was 2.4 percentage points lower in 2022/23 than it was in 2018/19

Summary:

• The attendance rate of pupils who experienced care at some point within the school year is decreasing. This is roughly in line with a slight decrease in attendance for all pupils from 92.0% in 2020/21 to 90.2% in 2022/23

Indicator 2:

Cases of exclusions per 1,000 pupils who have experienced care at some point within the school year^[18].

Data:

Indicator	2020/21	2022/23
Cases per 1,000 pupils	78	97

Analysis:

• In 2022/23, the rate of exclusions per 1,000 pupils who experienced care during the school year was 97, an increase from 78 in 2020/21.
• The exclusion rate for pupils who experienced care at some point throughout the year was almost six times the rate for all pupils in 2022/23.

Summary:

• The exclusion rate for learners who experienced care at some point within the year, and the gap between these children and the overall exclusion rate both grew in the 2022/23 school year.
• When looking back further, the rate was lower in 2022/23 than in 2018/19, the last data point pre COVID-19 pandemic, when the exclusions rate was 152 per 1,000 ‘looked after’ pupils

Outcome 2: The average attainment of care experienced pupils increases

Attainment in the earlier stages of a pupil’s journey through their achievement of Curriculum for Excellence levels is the basis for understanding whether all care experienced pupils are getting the support they need to thrive at school and achieve their potential compared to their peers. Attainment when leaving school, and whether care experienced pupils are being supported to go on to positive destinations is important to understand as a key factor in supporting their transition into adulthood and beyond.

Indicator 1:

Core: Proportion of pupils who experienced care at some point within the school year at stages P1, P4, P7 and S3 achieving the curriculum for excellence level relevant to their stage^[18].

Data:

Indicator	2018/19[19]	2022/23
Reading	56.9	56.4
Writing	50.6	50.3
Listening and talking	66.0	65.4
Numeracy	55.3	53.9

Analysis:

• In 2023, 57% of Primary 1 pupils who experienced care at some point within the last year achieved the expected curriculum for excellence level in reading, compared to 81% of all pupils (a difference of 24 percentage points – gap unchanged since 2022). For other subjects, the achievement levels were:
  • 53% to 78% for writing (25 percentage points – gap decrease of one percentage point since 2022)
  • 72% to 87% for listening and talking (15 percentage points – gap decrease of three percentage points since 2022)
  • 64% to 85% for numeracy (21 percentage points – gap unchanged since 2022)
• In 2023, 51% of Primary 4 pupils who have experienced care at some point within the last year achieved the expected curriculum for excellence level in reading, compared to 78% of all pupils (a difference of 27 percentage points – gap decrease of three percentage points since 2022). For other subjects, the achievement levels were:
  • 41% to 72% for writing (31 percentage points – gap decrease of one percentage point since 2022)
  • 68% to 87% for listening and talking (19 percentage points – gap decrease of two percentage points since 2022)
  • 48% to 77% for numeracy (29 percentage points – gap decrease of one percentage point since 2022)
• In 2023, 53% of Primary 7 pupils who have experienced care at some point within the last year achieved the expected curriculum for excellence level in reading, compared to 81% of all pupils (a difference of 28 percentage points – gap decrease by 1 percentage point since 2022). For other subjects, the achievement levels were:
  • 42% to 75% for writing (33 percentage points – gap increase of two percentage point since 2022)
  • 62% to 87% for listening and talking (25 percentage points – gap unchanged since 2022)
  • 44% to 78% for numeracy (34 percentage points – gap increase of one percentage point since 2022)
• In 2023, 62% of Secondary 3 pupils who have experienced care at some point within the last year achieved the expected curriculum for excellence level in reading, compared to 90% of all pupils (a difference of 28 percentage points – gap unchanged since 2022). For other subjects, the achievement levels were:
  • 61% to 89% for writing (28 percentage points – gap decrease of one percentage point since 2022)
  • 64% to 91% for listening and talking (27 percentage points – gap unchanged since 2022)
  • 61% to 90% for numeracy (29 percentage points – gap increase of three percentage point since 2022)

Summary:

• Achievement levels in all but one subject increased for children who experienced care in the last year in P1, P4, P7, and S3 compared with 2021/22
• The picture is more mixed when comparing achievement to pre-pandemic levels. When compared to 2018/19, achievement levels in P4 and P7 for all pupils who experienced the ‘care system’ in the last year increased across all subjects. However, during this same period achievement levels decreased across all subjects for P1 and S3 pupils who experienced care in the last year
• Although there also are some decreases among all pupils at these stages, they are less marked than the decreases for children experiencing the ‘care system’ in the last year

Indicator 2:

Core: Percentage of school leavers who experienced care during their last year at school achieving at least one SCQF level 5 qualification (or better)^[18].

Data:

Indicator	2019/20	2022/23
Percentage	38.1	42.3

Analysis:

• In 2023, 42.3% of school leavers who experienced care during their last year at school achieved at least one qualification at SCQF level 5 or better.

Summary:

• While the gap between school leavers who experienced the ‘care system’ within their final year of school and the overall popualtion was 5.2 percentage points lower in 2022/23 than it was in 2019/20, it did increase slightly between 2021/22 (when it stood at 40.3 percentage points) and 2022/23 (when it stood at 42.5 percentage points).

Indicator 3:

Core: Percentage of school leavers who experienced care during their last year at school achieving at least 1 SCQF level 6 qualification (or better)^[18].

Data:

Indicator	2019/20	2022/23
Percentage	14.2	15.8

Analysis:

• In 2023, 15.8% school leavers who experienced care during their last year of school achieved at least 1 SCQF level 6 qualification (or better).

Summary:

• The gap between school leavers who experienced care within their final year of school and the overall population was 1.6 percentage points lower in 2022/23 than it was in 2019/20, however it did increase slightly between 2021/22 (when it stood at 51.1 percentage points) and 2022/23 (when it stood at 42.1 percentage points)

Indicator 4:

Core: Percentage of school leavers who experienced care during their last year at school entering a positive destination 9 months after leaving school^[18].

Data:

Indicator	2019/20	2022/23
Percentage	75.3	71.1

Analysis:

• In 2023, 71.1% of leavers who experienced care within their final year of school were in a positive destination 9 months after leaving school, compared to 92.8% of all school leavers.
• This compares to 70.4% in 2022, 71.0% in 2021 and 75.3% in 2020.

Summary:

• The gap between the proportion of care experienced school leavers and all leavers going on to a positive follow-up destination in 2023 was slightly smaller in 2023 than in both 2022 and 2021, but slightly higher (0.3 percentage points) than in the last year before the COVID-19 pandemic, 2019.
• In 2020, 75.3% of school leavers who had experienced care during their last year at school entered a positive destination within 9 months after leaving school compared to 2023 when 71.1% of school leavers who had experienced care during their last year at school entered a positive destination within 9 months after leaving school. The percentage was higher in 2020 than in 2023.

Brothers and Sisters

Vision Statement Four

“Where living with their family is not possible, children must stay with their brothers and sisters where safe to do so and belong to a loving home, staying there for as long as needed.”

The Promise^[4], page 9

Outcome 1: The proportion of brothers and sisters staying together in the ‘care system’ increases

Relationships with their siblings can be some of the most important in a child’s life, and when living away from their parents, these relationships are an important protective factor for children. While there are certain dynamics of relationships under which it is in the best interests of a child’s safety and wellbeing to not live with their brothers and sisters for a period of time, the unnecessary separation due to a lack of capacity within the system should fall.

Indicator 1

Core: Proportion of family groups living in foster families who have been separated^[13].

Data:

Indicator	2020	2023
Percentage	24	21

Analysis:

• Of the 799 family groups of children in foster care in December in 2023, 79% were living with their brother and/or sisters.

Summary:

• Since 2018, the proportion of brothers and sisters living together has stayed between 75% and 80%.

Indicator 2:

Core: Number and proportion of new foster care households approved for family groups of 2 children, and 3 or more children.

Data:

Indicator	2020	2023
Percentage	14.2	15.8
Number of households	83	60

Analysis:

• The proportion of new foster care households which have been approved for a family group of 2 children has been falling over the last 4 years, from 36% (83 households) in 2020, to 30% (60 households) in 2023.
• Over the last 5 years, the proportion of new foster care households which have been approved for a family group of 3 or more children has consistently been less than 1% (fewer than 5 households) of all newly approved households.

Summary:

• Fostering services continue to report challenges recruiting fostering families able to support larger sibling groups: 79% of services said they had difficulties in 2023 recruiting households that will take family groups of children, up from 70% in the previous year.

Outcome 2: The number of children who cannot live with their family living in a family setting increase.

For those children who are unable to live with their family, the promise is clear that options for a child to live within a family setting should be prioritised. No child is the same, and for some children living in residential accommodation is the best place for them to be. However, The Promise is clear that when it is in the best interests of a child, options for living with a friend or relative should be explored fully before other placement types are considered. Where there are brothers and sisters separated in the context of secure care, there is additional complexity in maintaining connection.

Indicator 1:

Core: The number and proportion of children looked after away from home on 31^st July with foster carers or kinship carers, and as proportion of all children who are looked after^[5].

Data:

Indicator	2020	2023
Number	9,200	8,081
Proportion	64	66

Analysis:

• In July 2023, 34% of looked after children were living in kinship care, and a further third were living in family-like settings in foster care (32%) or with prospective adopters (1%).
• In July 2020, 31% of looked after children were living in kinship care, and a further third (33%) were living in family-like settings in foster care, and a small number (1%) were living with prospective adopters

Summary:

• Whilst there has been a 4 percentage point decrease in the proportion of looked after children living at home with their parents since 2020, there has also been a 3 percentage point increase in the proportion of children being placed with friends or relatives in kinship care.
• The proportion of looked after children living in foster care has remained approximately the same since The Promise was made in 2020.

Indicator 3:

Core: Number of children placed in secure care on 31^st July by Scottish local authorities, and as proportion of all children who are looked after^[5].

Data:

Indicator	2020	2023
Number	59	48
Proportion	0	0

Analysis:

• The number of looked after children in secure care reduced by 18.6% between 2020 (59) and 2023 (48).

Summary:

• Despite the fall in the number of children looked after in secure care between 2020 and 2023, this number has always accounted for less than 1% of the overall number of looked after children going back to 2013.

Physical Restraint

Vision Statement Five

“Scotland must strive to become a nation that does not restrain its children.

The Promise^[4], Page 85

Outcome 1: The number of children and young people experiencing restraint decreases. 

Experiencing physical restraint, living in a place where physical restraint takes place, or needing to use physical restraint can have detrimental effects on children, young people and practitioners’ ability to form stable, loving relationships with those who they live with. The practice must only be used to keep people safe and must always follow a model which focuses on co-regulation, so that the workforce reflects on their responses. Children and care experienced adults who spoke to the Independent Care Review were also clear, in certain circumstances, the use of physical restraint was an important part of keeping them safe. Use of physical restraint in care settings needs to reduce to an absolute minimum, and cases where restraint is not being used to keep children safe need to be eradicated completely.

Indicator 1:

Core: The number of incidences of Physical restraint in care home services for children and young people reported between 1st January and 31st December, the rate per place, and the median ^[20].

Data:

Indicator	2023
Number of incidents	2,595
Rate per place	1.4
Median	1

Analysis:

• This is the first annual publication of these statistics by the Care Inspectorate based on updated definitions of restraint and restrictive practices. Prior to 2022 care home services were asked to report the total number of incidents of restraint.

Summary:

• This is the first year these statistics have been collected and published in this way, making it difficult to understand any trends. From 2022, care home services for children and young people, and secure accommodation services, were asked to report on the total number of incidents of restraint and incidents of seclusion, in line with work with the Scottish Physical Restraint Action Group (SPRAG) to update definitions of restrictive practices. For school care accommodation services, this change came into existence in 2023 rather than 2022. The other difference is that whilst care home services and school care accommodation services were asked prior to 2022 and 2023 respectively to report the total number of incidents of restraint, secure accommodation services prior to 2022, were asked to report the numbers of children and young people restrained.
• When the figures for total number of incidents (as opposed to number of children and young people restrained), for care home services and school care accommodation services are compared, the data suggests an overall reduction in the number of incidents of physical restraint since the promise was made in 2020, and an increase in the number of incidents of physical restraint from last year (from 2022 to 2023).

Indicator 2:

Core: The number of incidents of seclusion in care home services for children and young people reported between 1st January and 31st December, rate per place and median^[20].

Data:

Indicator	2023
Number of incidents	120
Rate per place	0.07
Median	0

Analysis:

• This is the first annual publication of these statistics by the Care Inspectorate based on updated definitions of restraint and restrictive practices. Prior to 2022 care home services were asked to report the total number of incidents of restraint.

Summary:

See narrative for indicator 1.

Indicator 3:

Core: The number of incidents of physical restraint in Secure Accommodation Services Care reported between 1st January and 31st December, place per place and median^[20].

Data:

Indicator	2023
Number of incidents	1,954
Rate per place	24.1
Median	470

Analysis:

This is the first annual publication of these statistics by the Care Inspectorate based on updated definitions of restraint and restrictive practices. Prior to 2022 secure accommodation services were asked to report the number of children and young people restrained.

Summary:

See narrative for indicator 1.

Indicator 4:

Core: The number of incidents of seclusion in secure accommodation services reported between 1st January and 31st December, rate per place and median^[20].

Data:

Indicator	2023
Number of incidents	595
Rate per place	7.35
Median	194

Analysis:

• This is the first annual publication of these statistics by the Care Inspectorate based on updated definitions of restraint and restrictive practices. Prior to 2022 secure accommodation services were asked to report the number of children and young people restrained.

Summary:

• See narrative for indicator 1.

Indicator 5:

Core: The number of incidents of physical restraint in school care accommodation services (special residential schools) for children and young people reported between 1st January and 31st December, rate per place and median^[20].

Data:

Indicator	2023
Number of incidents	1,782
Rate per place	4.3
Median	10

Analysis:

• This is the first annual publication of these statistics by the Care Inspectorate based on updated definitions of restraint and restrictive practices. Prior to 2023 school care accommodation services were asked to report the total number of incidents of restraint.

Summary:

• See narrative for indicator 1.

Indicator 6:

Core: The number of incidences of seclusion in school care accommodation services (special residential schools) for children and young people reported between 1st January and 31st December, rate per place and median^[20].

Data:

Indicator	2023
Number of incidents	14
Rate per place	0.03
Median	0

Analysis:

• This is the first annual publication of these statistics by the Care Inspectorate based on updated definitions of restraint and restrictive practices. Prior to 2023 school care accommodation services were asked to report the total number of incidents of restraint.

Summary:

• See narrative for indicator 1.

Mental Health and wellbeing

Vision Statement Six

“Scotland must seek to uphold the wellbeing of care-experienced children and young people and ensure that there is timely access to mental health support before crisis point so that children can enjoy good mental health.”

The Promise^[4], Page 84

Outcome 1: Support for children and adult mental health increases.

A data development project is currently underway with Public Health Scotland, to develop an indicator set that will help build an understanding of how mental health outcomes differ between care experienced children and their peers, and whether care experienced children are experiencing equity in accessing support for their mental health. Areas which have been jointly identified as a priority include mental health prescribing, psychiatric hospital treatment and CAMHS referrals and waiting times.

Indicator 1:

Core: Percentage of children receiving Child and Mental Health Services treatment within referral guidelines^[21].

The data:

2020	2024
61.7%	84.1%

Analysis:

• 84.1% of children and young people referred to Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services were seen within 18 weeks during the quarter ending June 2024.
• This is a decrease from 86% for the previous quarter. Compared to same quarter in 2020, the number of children and young people in 2024 receiving Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services treatment within 18 weeks of referral has increased by over 20%.

Summary:

• The number of children and young people receiving Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services treatment within 18 weeks of referral has increased since 2020 but showed a decrease between the quarter ending in March and the quarter ending in June 2024.

Outcome 2: The number of staff employed in Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services is proportionate to demand.

Care experienced children have the same rights to enjoy good mental health as all children, even if the support they need to get there may look different. For this reason, how the overall child and adolescent mental health service is able to meet demand for children and young people when looking to access support for their mental health is important to understand.

In addition to what is set out below, work is underway with Public Health Scotland to link the Children’s Social Work statistics to the Community Health Index data. This will enable Public Health Scotland to collect and analyse health outcomes and access to health services for care experienced school age children. The initial areas of interest which have been identified for the data linkage process include:

• Mental health prescribing
• Psychiatric hospital treatment
• CAMHS referrals and waiting time

The Scottish Government is working with Public Health Scotland to explore methods to gather pre-birth and 0-5 years, young people transitioning into adulthood, and adult health data between now and 2030 when the promise must be kept.

Indicator 2:

Core: Number of staff employed in Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services^[22].

The data:

Indicator	September 2019	September 2024
Headcount	1,219	1,716
WTE equivalent	1043.0	1490.2

Analysis:

• At Sept 2024, there were 1,716 staff in post (1,490.2 Whole Time Equivalent staff) within NHS Scotland Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services. This is an increase of 40.8% head count (42.9% WTE) over the last five years.

Summary:

• The overall number and Whole Time Equivalents of staff employed in Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services is increasing.

Health

Vision statement Seven

“Care experienced children and young people have access to support ensuring that their health needs are fully met and potential for good health is maximized.”

The Promise^[4], Page 83

Outcome 1: Health outcomes, and access to health services, improve for care experienced children and young people.

Through data development work with Public Health Scotland, an indicator set will be developed which provides an understanding of whether care experienced children have equitable access to universal services that promote good health in childhood. This includes reviews to monitor and promote early childhood development; registration and participation in dental care; timely delivery of routine immunisations; pre-school vision assessment; and monitoring of growth. Inequalities in health outcomes between care experienced children and their peers must be reduced, including developmental concerns, dental concerns, and healthy weight.

Public Health Scotland processes data on health outcomes and access to health services from maternal health and pre-birth through to 18 year olds. Inequalities in health outcomes between care experienced children and their peers should be reduced, including developmental concerns, dental caries and healthy weight.

Work is underway with Public Health Scotland to link the Children’s Social Work statistics to the Community Health Index data. This will enable Public Health Scotland to collect and analyse health outcomes and access to health services for care experienced school age children. The initial areas of interest which have been identified for the data linkage process include:

• Early childhood development
• Dental Health
• Immunisations
• Diet and Healthy weight

Justice

Vision statement Eight

“Scotland must stop locking up children who have often experienced the failures of the state in the provision of their care.”

The Promise^[4], Page 91

Outcome 1: The number of young people entering young offenders’ institutions decreases.

Early criminalisation and deprivation of liberty can have detrimental effects on lifelong outcomes for a young person. Referrals to the Children’s Reporter on offence grounds for children on compulsory supervision orders, determines whether care experienced children are being supported within their communities.

Indicator 1:

Core: Number of under 21s in custody on an average day^[23].

The data:

Indicator	2019-20	2022-23
Number	324	159

Analysis:

• In 2022-23 2% of prison population were under 21 on an average day a decrease of 51% since 2019-20.

Summary:

• The number of those under 21 in custody is currently reducing.

Indicator 2:

Core: Number of referrals to the Children’s Reporter on offence grounds^[24].

The data

Indicator	2019-20	2023-24
Number	2,840	2,701

Analysis:

• In 2023-24, 2,701 of children referred to the children’s reporter were on offence ground, a decrease of 4.8% since 2019-20.

Summary:

• Both referrals overall and those made on offence grounds are currently decreasing.

Aftercare

Vision statement Nine

“Young adults for whole Scotland have taken on parenting responsibility must have right to return to care and have access to services and supportive people nurture them.”

The Promise^[4], Pg. 92

Outcome 1: The number of young care experienced people receiving support increases.

Care experienced young people transitioning into adulthood can experience a cliff-edge of care and support, which is different to that of their peers. The promise was clear that in fulfilling its duties, Scotland needs to mirror the type of support that many families provide for their children during this time. Each young person’s needs and circumstances are different. For some young people, good corporate parenting will involve providing aftercare to ensure they have access to services and support to nurture them during their transition to independent living. For others, this looks like ensuring a young person can remain where they are living as long as they need to as they enter adulthood, as part of continuing care.

Indicator 1:

Core: Proportion of care experienced adults who are eligible for aftercare services who are receiving services^[5].

The data:

Indicator	2020	2023
Proportion	57%	49%

Analysis:

• Since 2020 the number of young people eligible for aftercare services has increased by 20% from 7,198 in 2020 to 8,517 in 2023.
• On 31 July 2023, 4,151 (49% of those eligible) were receiving aftercare services– up 1% on 31 July 2020 (4,129).

Summary:

• The number of young people eligible for aftercare is currently increasing. This increase is expected as more young people who have left care have met age range criteria for aftercare services over time
• The number of young people receiving aftercare services is currently increasing, but the proportion of those who are eligible for aftercare who are receiving it each year has decreased slightly since 2020. Since 2013 the proportion of young people receiving an aftercare service of all those eligible fell by 20 percentage points from 69% in 2013 to 49% in 2023.

Indicator 2:

Number and proportion of eligible young people who are going on to continuing care^[5].

The data:

Indicator	2020	2023
Number	229	261
Rate	Unavailable[25]	29%

Analysis:

• In 2022-23, a total of 911 young people aged 16 years or over were eligible for Continuing Care. Of these, 261 or 29% opted for Continuing Care.
• This compares to 268 young people who opted for Continuing Care in 2021/22 and 257 young people in 2020/21.

Summary:

• The number of young people opting for Continuing Care has remained relatively stable since the promise was made but remains a low proportion of all those eligible.

Support for Care Experienced Adults

Vision statement Ten

“Care experienced adults must have a right to access to supportive, caring services for as long as they require. Those services and the people who work in them must have a primary focus on the development and maintenance of supportive relationships that help people access what they need to thrive.”

The Promise^[4], Page 92

Many care experienced adults experience a cliff-edge of support in later life, being expected to leave their home at an earlier age than the rest of the population, with less preparation and with less support. Difficulties in accessing stable, affordable housing can create the circumstances where multiple disadvantage - which can include substance misuse, mental health problems or offending - is much more likely to occur. While the evidence base for understanding the prevalence of homelessness, use of drugs or alcohol and adverse mental health within the care experienced population is being developed, and importantly the specific challenges they face in preventing this outcome, an understanding of how these outcomes are changing at the national level helps to give an indication of whether some of the circumstances faced by care experienced adults are becoming more or less difficult to navigate.

The evidence that measures both access to services and outcomes for the care experienced adult population is currently insufficient. Analysis of quantitative and qualitative data specific to this cohort is crucial to fully evaluate the life-long challenges that care experienced adults face in housing, education, employment, health and many other areas of life with very little financial and emotional support.

Improving this picture by capturing other sources of existing and new research, data and information will form part of the ongoing, collective work to develop and iterate the Promise Story of Progress and to consider what further data should be captured at the national Promise Progress Framework level.

Outcome 1: The number of young care experienced people receiving support increases.

Indicator 1:

Contextual: Number and proportion of people of working age living in relative poverty after housing costs^[10].

The data:

Year	2020-23
Number	720,000
Rate	21%

Analysis:

• The relative poverty rate in 2020-23 was estimated to be 21% after housing costs, and 18% before housing costs. This equated to 720,000 working-age adults in poverty after housing costs, and 620,000 before housing costs.

Summary:

• Relative poverty rate for working-age adults is slightly higher than in recent years.
• The latest estimates are similar to last year but slightly higher than in years previous to that.

Indicator 2:

Number of households living in temporary accommodation^[2].

The data:

Indicator	2020	2024
Number	11,655	16,330

Analysis:

• There were 16,330 households in temporary accommodation as at 31st March 2024, a 40. % increase since 2020. This was also a 9% increase from 15,039 in 2023 and a 15% increase from 14,214 in 2022.
• In 2024, 4,910 of the households in temporary accommodation had children or pregnant women, compared to 4,735 in 2023 and 4,345 in 2021.

Summary:

• The number of households living in temporary accommodation is currently increasing.

Indicator 3:

Contextual: Number and proportion of households assessed as homeless or threatened with homelessness, and as a proportion of all households assessed^[2].

The data:

Indicator	2019/20	2023/24
Number	31,333	33,619
Percentage	84	83

Analysis:

• 33,619 households were assessed as homeless in 2023/24, 83% of all assessments made, a 6% increase from 2019/2020.

Summary:

• The number of households assessed as homeless is increasing whilst the proportion of assessments resulting in a homeless decision is relatively stable.

Outcome Two: Support for People who use drugs or alcohol increases.

Indicator 1:

Contextual: Number of referrals starting community-based treatment for problematic drug or alcohol use, and percentage receiving that help within 3 weeks or less^[26].

The data:

Indicator	2019/20	2023/24
Number	31,309	31,368
Percentage	95.5	92.0

Analysis:

• In 2023/24 31,368 referrals to community-based services started treatment, similar to the number in 2020/21. The proportion of referrals starting treatment within three weeks or less has reduced.

Summary:

• The number of referrals to community-based services has been broadly stable since 2020.
• The waiting times standard (90% start treatment within 3 weeks or less) has been met at a national level for the majority of quarters since 2020/21 but there is regional variation.

Outcome Three: Support for adult mental health increases.

Indicator:

Contextual: Number of people starting to receive psychological therapy within the quarter, and percentage who started within waiting times standard^[27].

The data:

Indicator	Apr-Jun 2020	Apr-Jun 2024
Number	11,042	19,369
Percentage	74.3	80.2

Analysis:

• The proportion of people receiving psychological therapy within waiting times has remained broadly flat the same since September 2022, when 81.4% of people started their treatment within 18 weeks of referral. Compared to 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic, the proportion of people started their treatment within 18 weeks of referral has increased by 5.9 percentage points.
• Although at 80.2%, the proportion being seen within 18 weeks is 5.9 percentage points higher than in June 2020, it is difficult to make a direct comparison as this was at the height of disruption to services due to COVID, and one of the lowest percentages going back to 2015.

Summary:

• The percentage of patients of all ages who started treatment in PT within 18 weeks of referral, in the period June 2020 - June 2024, broadly rose from Jun 2020 to Sept 2021. It then fell in September 2022.