Climate change - national adaptation plan 2024 to 2029: consultation

Annex C: Adaptation Monitoring Framework

The challenge

While most OECD countries have developed a national adaptation strategy, many struggle to design and set up robust measurement systems to evaluate progress on adaptation. Adaptation does not have a universal, objective, quantifiable measure of success (such as ‘net zero’ for our mitigation actions).

There are a range of conceptual, methodological, empirical and practical challenges associated with measuring adaptation action and effectiveness at a national scale. Multiple comparative reviews have also shown that there is no single blueprint for national adaptation monitoring and evaluation systems, since each system is tailored to specific conditions and priorities.

The solution

Our aim is for Scotland to have the most developed and transparent adaptation monitoring system in the UK.

The approach we propose to take is a practical one.

Our proposed approach is that annual reports to the Scottish Parliament will, for the first time, include a set of agreed quantitative indicators to monitor the Adaptation Plan’s objectives. To track Scotland's longer-term adaptation outcomes, we plan to publish a baseline at the start and report on progress at the end of the Adaptation Plan’s 5-year period to track trends in resilience.

• Our monitoring framework needs to support implementation of the policies and balance robustness with proportionality and feasibility. We will select indicators for SNAP objectives where the data is relevant, available and likely to show changes on an annual timescale. Indicators for SNAP outcomes will track important trends, but those are likely to change on a slower timescale. Many indicators will be proxies because direct measurement of complex inclusive adaptation action is not always possible.
• We propose to define the direction we want to see the indicators track, as opposed to setting targets for all objectives. This is to avoid the perverse incentives that arise from setting targets for indicators that are proxies (as compared with direct measures of resilience).
• We will still publish a monitoring framework even if it does not adequately monitor all SNAP objectives and outcomes at the outset. The framework will be reviewed during the lifetime of the plan and updated if these gaps can be addressed.

The new monitoring system described above is designed to fit into and complement existing evidence and evaluation processes (see Figure A).

The CCRA is the most comprehensive evidence on Scotland’s climate resilience available and is updated regularly (every 5 years). The CCC’s regular progress reports (every 2-3 years) provide robust independent evaluation. Through the Adaptation Plan’s new monitoring framework, we will provide significantly better data to maximise the value of these assessments and improve the overall transparency and effectiveness of adaptation action.

Elements of Adaptation Measurement:

• Evidence - the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment assesses the gap between the level of risk from climate and the level of adaptation underway. Every 5 years.
• Monitoring - Annual reports will monitor progress to the Adaptation Plan's objectives. Every year. Reports at the start and end of the Adaptation Plan will monitor longer-term trends and outcomes. Start and end of Plan.
• Evaluation - Climate Change Committee assess progress of the Adaptation Plan in building resilience to the impacts of climate change. Every 2-3 years.