Public sector employment in Scotland: statistics for first quarter 2021

1. Total Employment and Public and Private Sector Employment in Scotland; Headcount

(see Table 1)

Public sector employment increased by 16,810 (up 3.0%) between March 2020 and March 2021. This increase in public sector employment is mainly due to an increase in the devolved public sector.

The public sector is defined according to the UK National Accounts Classifications Guide

Figure 1 provides a summary of total employment in Scotland by public and private sector.

Figure 1: Public and Private* Sector Employment in Scotland as at March 2021

Public Sector

579,400 People employed in thepublic sector in Scotland as Q1 2021

21.9% The proportion of total employment in Scotland that is accounted for by the pulbi sector.

16,810 (3.0%) The change in plubic sector employment over the year in Scotland.

Private Sector

2,068,700 People employed in the private sector in Scotland as of Q1 2021

78.1% The proportion of total employment in Scotland that is accounted for by the private sector.

2,100 (1.0%) The change in private sector employment over the year in Scotland.

Source: Public Sector Employment in Scotland, Quarter 1 2021

* Important Note: Estimates for private sector employment are based on the Labour Force Survey, ONS. Labour Force Survey (LFS) responses are weighted to official population projections. As the current projections are 2018-based they are based on demographic trends that pre-date the COVID-19 pandemic. ONS are analysing the population totals used in the weighting process and intend to make adjustments in July 2021. Rates published from the LFS remain robust; however, levels and changes in levels (for 2020 and 2021) should be used with caution.

Source: Public Sector Employment in Scotland, Quarter 1 2021

Chart 1 shows that the number of people employed in the public sector remained relatively constant between Q1 2014 and Q2 2018, before falling in Q3 2018 and rising again from Q4 2018 onwards. Excluding the effects of major reclassifications^[5] (i.e. taking out the headcounts for all large organisations listed in footnote 5 from the overall numbers), the number of people employed in the public sector gradually reached a peak in Q2 2006, decreased to Q3 2013 and remained relatively constant until Q3 2018. The increase between Q3 2018 and Q4 2018 is mainly due to Cordia services moving back under Glasgow City Council services and the series has continued to rise from Q4 2018 onwards.

Chart 2 shows the annual change in employment for the public sector. Employment increased by 16,810 between March 2020 and March 2021, driven mainly by increases in the devolved public sector headcount. The devolved public sector headcount has risen due to increases in the NHS, local government and the devolved Civil Service.

The annual changes in Chart 2 show the effect of the inclusion of several Train Operating Companies (TOCs) within the public sector from 1^st April 2020 onwards.

Source: Public Sector Employment in Scotland, Quarter 1 2021

Impact of Excluding Major Reclassifications from Public Sector

If the major reclassifications5 were to be excluded from the public sector series (i.e. the headcounts for all large organisations listed in footnote 5 were taken out of the overall numbers), there would be around 561,000 people employed in the public sector in March 2021. This was 21.2% of the total employment in Scotland compared with 21.9% if major reclassifications are included.

Public sector employment, excluding the effects of the major reclassifications, would be around 11,000 (2.0%) higher in March 2021 compared with March 2020.

Chart 3 below shows that the overall public sector in Scotland increased by 16,810 (3.0%) between March 2020 and March 2021. Chart 3 also shows the estimated impact of removing major reclassifications from the series.

Source: Public Sector Employment in Scotland, Quarter 1 2021

Note: Totals may not equal the sum of individual parts due to rounding