Public Sector Employment In Scotland Statistics For 2nd Quarter 2021

1. Total Employment and Public and Private Sector Employment in Scotland; Headcount

(see Table 1)

Public sector employment increased by 11,050 (up 1.9%) between June 2020 and June 2021. This increase in public sector employment is mainly due to an increase in the devolved public sector.

The public sector is defined according to the UK National Accounts Classifications Guide

Figure 1 provides a summary of total employment in Scotland by public and private sector.

Figure 1: Public and Private* Sector Employment in Scotland as at June 2021

Source: Public Sector Employment in Scotland, Quarter 2 2021

* Important Note: Estimates for private sector employment are based on the Labour Force Survey, ONS. Labour Force Survey (LFS) estimates from Jan-Mar 2020 to Feb-Apr 2021 were reweighted in July 2021 to new populations derived using growth rates from HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) Real Time Information (RTI) to allow for different trends during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Source: Public Sector Employment in Scotland, Quarter 2 2021

Chart 1 shows that the number of people employed in the public sector remained relatively constant between Q1 2014 and Q2 2018, before falling in Q3 2018 and rising again from Q4 2018 onwards. Excluding the effects of major reclassifications^[3](i.e. taking out the headcounts for all large organisations listed in footnote 3 from the overall numbers), the number of people employed in the public sector gradually reached a peak in Q2 2006, decreased to Q3 2013 and remained relatively constant until Q3 2018. The increase between Q3 2018 and Q4 2018 is mainly due to Cordia services moving back under Glasgow City Council services and the series has continued to rise from Q4 2018 onwards.

Chart 2 shows the annual change in employment for the public sector. Employment increased by 11,050 between June 2020 and June 2021, driven mainly by increases in the devolved public sector headcount. The devolved public sector headcount has risen due to increases in the NHS, local government and the devolved Civil Service.

The annual changes in Chart 2 prior to Q2 2021 show the effect of the inclusion of several Train Operating Companies (TOCs) within the public sector from 1^st April 2020 onwards alongside increases in the NHS, local government and devolved Civil Service.

Source: Public Sector Employment in Scotland, Quarter 2 2021

Impact of Excluding Major Reclassifications from Public Sector

If the major reclassifications³ were to be excluded from the public sector series (i.e. the headcounts for all large organisations listed in footnote 3 were taken out of the overall numbers), there would be around 565,000 people employed in the public sector in June 2021. This was 21.5% of the total employment in Scotland compared with 22.2% if major reclassifications are included.

Public sector employment, excluding the effects of the major reclassifications, would be around 11,000 (2.0%) higher in June 2021 compared with June 2020. This shows that the increase over the year is due to increases in substantive public sector organisations.