Pupil projections and implications for teacher resourcing needs: education workforce modelling and research

Appendix 1: Subject and regional analysis

We have extended our analysis to model pupil projections and teacher demand at the level of subjects and individual Local Authorities (LA). This granularity can provide insights into specific regional trends and challenges, stimulate further discussion, and inform decisions. However, it's important to recognise the limitations of the lower data volume at LA level. Statistical analysis with smaller datasets can introduce greater uncertainty and the potential for biased results. As such, the results should be interpreted with caution.

Pupil-teacher ratios (PTR) comparison across local authorities

Looking at pupil and teacher numbers across LAs paints a varied picture, shaped by population density, urban-rural divides, and demographic trends. In 2023, Shetland Islands had the lowest PTR (10.6), while East Lothian (15.1) held the highest, followed by Edinburgh (14.8). Notably, 19 out of 32 LAs surpassed the national average of 13.2.

At the secondary level, West Lothian (13.7), Fife (13.3), Dumfries & Galloway (13.3), North Lanarkshire (13.1), West Dunbartonshire (13.0) and East Ayrshire (13.0) have the highest PTRs.

Subject-specific PTR variations

We only consider subject selections at secondary school level. At the primary level, pupils typically study in a curriculum comprising compulsory subjects, and teachers often cover a broad spectrum of subjects. However, when pupils progress to secondary education, they start to choose specific subjects based on their interests and career aspirations from S3 to S4, while also taking some compulsory subjects such as English and Mathematics. In our model, secondary school subject selections are estimated based on compulsory S1-S3 courses and National 5 attainment figures for S4-S6.

The PTR calculated for each subject is adjusted with the number of lessons per week for that subject, as found in online secondary school timetables or documents. Mathematics, English, and a broad "Other" category (encompassing PE, Arts, Music, Geography, and History) exhibit relatively high PTRs compared to other subjects, with a PTR at 9.7, 8.8 and 9.7, respectively, in 2022.

Mathematics, identified as a subject with a high national PTR, has substantial local variations. While Na h-Eileanan Siar and East Renfrewshire had the lowest rates in 2022 (less than 8), Aberdeenshire (13.3), Fife (11.6), Scottish Borders (11.4), and Falkirk (10.9) are areas with the highest PTRs for Maths. This could be due to teacher recruitment challenges and/or higher demand for this subject among pupils in these areas. Understanding these diverse contexts is important for allocating resources and supporting Mathematics education across Scotland’s varied landscapes.

Science subjects, on the other hand, presented a more balanced PTR landscape. Perth and Kinross (6.6) and South Ayrshire (5.8) emerged as outliers with the highest PTRs, exceeding the national average of 5.4. It is worth noting that although we have factored in pupil numbers and lesson hours per week for different subject groups, the PTR calculations are based on a number of assumptions (detailed later in the Annex), and caution should be exercised when comparing the PTR between subjects.

Unevenly distributed pupil population decline across Scotland

The projected decline in pupil population, derived from NRS projections using the 2018-based low fertility scenario (which is the latest local authority level projection available and most closely matches the ONS 2020 projection for Scotland) will impact all LAs, albeit unevenly. Argyll & Bute (-2.7%) and Moray (-2.3%) are expected to experience the steepest declines by 2035, while Midlothian is expected to see the least significant drop. Notably, Midlothian's secondary school population is projected to experience a modest 0.5% increase between 2022 and 2035.

Teacher resourcing needs under different scenarios

The scenarios covered in the main body of this report have also been analysed at LA level to explore the interactions between policy commitments, teacher supply and demand, and resource constraints. To recap these scenarios, they are:

0. Maintaining constant teacher stock

1. Enabling a reduction in class contact time by 1.5 hours per week

(a) Lowering class contact time to 21 hours per week by 2026

(b) Lowering class contact time to 21 hours per week by 2028

2. Maintaining the pupil-teacher ratio at 13.2

(a) Maintaining the PTR at 13.2

(b) Maintaining the PTR at 13.2, with more classroom teachers

3. Raising the PTR from its current level to its recent high

(a) Raising PTR to 13.7 by 2026

(b) Raising PTR to 13.7 by 2026, with more classroom teachers

4. Increasing the number of teachers by 3,500 by 2026, in line with the Scottish Government’s commitment, then it remains constant from 2027

A summary of the LA PTR projections for these scenarios can be found in table A1.2. In the case of reducing class contact time, we assume all teachers across all school types and LAs begin with 22.5 weekly teaching hours. Adjusting the national target effectively reduces class contact time for all teachers across the board. Consequently, LA PTRs exhibit a general downward trend until 2033 for lower target scenarios. Conversely, increasing the national PTR target raises LA PTRs, albeit to varying degrees.

In the case of changing the national PTR, this will effectively change the number of teachers needed at the national level with a changing pupil population. The corresponding change in teacher demand in each LA is determined by that LA’s share of national teacher stock in 2022. Due to different retirement rates and demographic patterns in different LAs, holding the national PTR constant will still lead to changes in PTRs at LA level. For example, even if the national PTR is the same, as the pupil population changes, the teacher demand will also change, as the change in pupil population varies across LA, and the change in teacher numbers does not necessarily follow the change in pupil population. This therefore can result in a changing LA PTR.

Demographic shifts highlight East Dunbartonshire, Midlothian, and Stirling as LAs projected to experience the largest PTR increases across most scenarios by 2033. However, in terms of the level of PTR, East Lothian, Edinburgh, and Midlothian stand out. This suggests particular challenges in meeting teacher workforce requirements for these areas.