Affordable housing supply

Affordable Housing Supply Programme statistics reflect the broader supply of affordable homes (i.e. for social rent, affordable rent and affordable home ownership), and include off the shelf purchases and rehabilitations as well as new builds. Latest statistics are available up to the end of September 2023.

The statistics reflect the number of affordable homes delivered that have received some form of government support through loans, grant or guarantees.

Approvals, starts and completions are all measured for the Affordable Housing Supply Programme. Approval is the point at which funding is granted. Starts are recorded when an on-site presence is established to progress site work. Completion measures when the units are delivered and ready for occupation.

• Social Rent includes Housing Association Rent, Council House Rent as well as Home Owner Support Fund Rent.
• Affordable Rent includes Mid-Market Rent (MMR), National Housing Trust (NHT) Rent as well as other programmes such as the Empty Homes Loan Fund (EHLF) and Rural Homes for Rent (RHfR).
• Affordable Home Ownership includes Open Market Shared Equity (OMSE), New Supply Shared Equity (NSSE), Shared Ownership (LCHO) as well as other programmes such as Home Owner Support Fund Shared Equity.

Chart 11: In the latest year to end September 2023, the number of affordable homes completed has increased by 9%, whilst the number of homes approved has decreased by 14%, and the number of homes started has decreased by 24%.

Chart 11 above shows that the numbers of affordable homes completed has increased on an annual basis over the latest year to end September 2023, whilst the number of homes approved and started have dropped. In the year to end September 2023, 6,178 affordable homes were approved, a decrease of 14% (981 homes) on the previous year, and 6,302 homes were started, a decrease of 24% (1,996 homes). A total of 10,582 homes were completed, an increase of 9% (877 homes).

Table 4 below shows that in the latest quarter July to September 2023, 1,153 homes were approved, 1,341 homes were started, and 2,351 homes were completed. The number of approvals is higher than in the same period in the previous year, with approvals being 11% (118 homes) higher. Starts and completions are both lower than they were in the same period in the previous year by 39% (840 homes) and 9% (235 homes) respectively. 

Table 4: Affordable Housing Supply to September 2023

Note in the table above that levels of housing supply activity in July to September 2020 were affected by the impact of the COVID-19 lockdown measures that were in place during that quarter.

Chart 12 below presents quarterly trends in the number of affordable housing approvals, starts and completions from January 2019 up to end September 2023.

Chart 12: The number of affordable homes approved, started and completed each quarter, Jan-Mar 2019 to Jul-Sep 2023.

Charts 13 to 15 below present information on trends in affordable housing supply by type.

Chart 13 shows that total affordable housing supply programme approvals decreased by 14% between 2022 and 2023 (years to end September), with decreases in the number of approvals for social rent (by 18% or 985 homes) and for other affordable rent (by 37% of 320 homes), but an increase in the number of approvals for affordable home ownership by 46% of 324 homes.

In the latest year 2023, social rent approvals accounted for 74% of all approvals, with other affordable rent and affordable home ownership making up 9% and 17%, respectively.

Chart 13: Affordable housing supply approvals by type, 2013 to 2023.

Chart 14 shows that total affordable housing supply programme starts decreased by 24% (1,996 homes) between 2022 and 2023 (years to end September), with decreases in the number of starts for social rent by 29% or 1,947 homes and other affordable rent (by 40% or 377 homes) but increases in the number of affordable home ownership (by 45% or 328 homes).

In the latest year 2023, social rent starts accounted for 74% of all starts, with other affordable rent and affordable home ownership making up 9% and 17%, respectively.

Chart 14: Affordable housing supply starts by type, 2013 to 2023.

Chart 15 shows that total affordable housing supply programme completions increased by 9% (877 homes) between 2022 and 2023 (years to end September), with a decrease in the number of completions for social rent (by 2% or 196 homes) and increases in other affordable rent (by 47% or 481 homes) and affordable home ownership (by 80% or 592 homes).

In the latest year 2023, social rent completions accounted for 73% of all completions, with other affordable rent and affordable home ownership making up 14% and 13% of the total.

Chart 15: Affordable housing supply completions by type, 2013 to 2023.

Quarterly affordable housing supply statistics are used to inform progress against Scottish Government affordable housing delivery targets, in which the ambition is to deliver 110,000 affordable homes by 2032, of which at least 70% will be for social rent and 10% will be in remote, rural and island communities.

A total of 15,765 affordable homes have been completed between 23 March 2022 and 30 September 2023 towards the target of 110,000 affordable homes by 2032, consisting of 12,188 (77%) homes for social rent, 1,917 (12%) for affordable rent, and 1,660 (11%) for affordable home ownership.

The Scottish Government Affordable Housing Supply Programme policy area webpages also include annual Out-Turn Reports, which provide further detailed programme information for each financial year.

Figures on the remote, rural and island communities element of the 110,000 target are planned to be reported on as part of future annual out-turn reports, although we are considering whether it is feasible for these figures to be reported on a quarterly basis in addition to this.

Affordable housing supply across UK countries

Chart 16 below illustrates how affordable housing supply figures per 10,000 population have varied on a financial year basis across the 2007/08 to 2022/23 period by UK country.

Across the 15 years between 2007/08 and 2022/23, the annual average supply of affordable housing per head of population in Scotland has been 14.2 homes per 10,000 population, higher than Wales (8.2 homes per 10,000 population), England (9.7 homes per 10,000 population - average across the years 2007/08 to 2021/22), and Northern Ireland (12.7 homes per 10,000 population – average across the years 2010/11 to 2021/22).

Scotland has had a higher rate of supply than all other UK countries in each year but one from 2015/16 to 2021/22, with the rate dropping below the rate for Northern Ireland in the year 2020/21 following COVID-19 restrictions.

Chart 16: The 10,462 affordable homes completed in Scotland in the latest financial year 2022/23 equates to a rate of 19.1 homes delivered per 10,000 population.

In addition to the differences in total affordable supply between each country, there are also some differences in the use of different affordable housing products within the mix of overall affordable housing in each country. For example, in England in recent years there has been a greater use of affordable / intermediate rent compared to social rent. Therefore when looking over the four years to 2021/22, in England there have been on average 5.1 affordable / intermediate rent homes completed per 10,000 head of population and 1.2 social rented homes completed 10,000 per-head of population. This compares to a rate of 1.9 for affordable rent homes and a rate of 11.7 for social rented homes in Scotland.

Note that the statistics for England and Wales both include developer-funded Section 106 supply, although for England it is thought that some will be missed as local authorities are not aware of it all. Northern Ireland does not currently have an equivalent mechanism. Data for Scotland include Section 75 units receiving some form of government funding. Data are not available to estimate the number of affordable homes delivered without central government funding in Scotland, but it is thought that the numbers of these homes may be relatively low based on current estimates of the number of funded Affordable and Section 75 homes being delivered.