Private-led new housebuilding

The private sector is the biggest contributor to overall house building, accounting for over two-thirds (72%) of all homes completed in the 12 months to end September 2023.

Chart 5 below shows the annual number of private sector led starts and completions from 2008 to 2023 (years to end September).

This shows private sector led starts and completions falling substantially across the years 2008 and 2009 (years to end September) due to the financial crisis. After 2013 starts and completions increased across most years until dropping in the year to end September 2020 due to the impact of COVID-19 construction lockdown measures in place between April and June 2020. In 2021 both starts and completions increased, but since then, starts have fallen whilst completions have continued to increase. In the most recent year to end September 2023 completions decreased by 3%, whilst starts have decreased by 19%.

Chart 5: Annual private sector led new build completions have decreased in the latest year to end September 2023 by 3%, whilst starts have decreased by 19%.

Chart 6 below presents the latest quarterly trends. In July to September 2023 there were 3,470 private sector led homes completed, a decrease of 20% (894 homes) on the same quarter in 2022. This brings the total for the year ending September 2023 to 15,837, a decrease of 3% (491 homes) on the 16,328 completions in the previous year.

There were 3,118 private sector led homes started in July to September 2023, a decrease of 23% (930 homes) on the same quarter in 2022. This brings the total for the year to end September 2023 to 12,982 starts, a decrease of 19% (3,017 homes) on the 15,999 starts in the previous year.

Chart 6: Private sector led new housebuilding starts and completions by quarter.

Table 2: Private-led new housebuilding to end September 2023

Note in the table above that new housebuilding starts and completions in July to September were affected by the impact of the COVID-19 lockdown measures that were in place during that quarter.

Map B below shows that the local authority areas with the highest private sector led completion rates in the year to end September 2023 are East Lothian, East Renfrewshire, Midlothian, Na h-Eileanan Siar, Perth & Kinross, Renfrewshire, South Lanarkshire and West Lothian with all having a rate of over 40 homes per 10,000 population.

The lowest rates meanwhile are in Argyll & Bute, Clackmannanshire, Dumfries & Galloway, East Dunbartonshire, Falkirk, Glasgow City, Inverclyde, North Lanarkshire, Scottish Borders and West Dunbartonshire, with all seeing rates of 16 or fewer homes per 10,000 population.

Note: Private sector completion rates calculations contain some estimated figures for Aberdeen City, Dundee City, East Dunbartonshire, South Ayrshire, and Stirling. More details are available in the Data and Methodology section.

Map B: New build housing – Private Sector completions: rates per 10,000 population, year to end September 2023.

UK House Price Index (HPI) new build sales transactions, as a measure of private-led housebuilding activity to end June 2023

This section shows how the latest quarterly trends in the number of new build sales transactions in Scotland to end June 2023, based on residential property transaction figures published as part of the UK House Price Index (HPI), compared to the quarterly Scottish Government new housebuilding figures.

Chart 7 illustrates how the UK HPI figures compare to Scottish Government Private sector-led completion figures in each quarter from January to March 2019 onwards.

It can be seen across the period January to March 2019 to April to June 2023 that both data series generally follow broadly similar trends in respect of increases or decreases compared to the previous quarter. The Scottish Government figures are higher in most quarters, but this is likely to be explained by differences in how the figures are constructed, given that some self-build dwellings or dwellings built privately for tenures other than private sales will be included, whereas the HPI figures are based on private sales transactions only, and are based on date of completed sales transaction rather than date of completion.

Chart 7: Scottish Government Private Sector led new housebuilding completions and HPI new build sales transactions. Scotland: Jan – Mar 2019 to Apr – Jun 2023.

Further information on the HPI data for Scotland, which is sourced from Registers of Scotland, is available in the HPI Quality assurance of administrative data section.