Housing Statistics for Scotland Quarterly Update: New Housebuilding and Affordable Housing Supply (published 27 June 2023)

2. All-sector new housebuilding

Chart 1 on page 1 shows that annual all-sector new build starts and completions in the years to end March both showed a decreasing direction of trend immediately following the financial crisis in 2008. Starts fell to a low in 2011 and completions reached their lowest point in 2013. Following this, starts and completions then generally increased year on year up to the year ending March 2020. Starts and completions then dropped in the year to end March 2021 due to the impact of COVID-19 lockdown measures in the quarter April to June 2020, before both increasing again in the year to end March 2022. In the most recent year to end March 2023 starts have fallen whilst completions have continued to increase.

In the latest year to end March 2023, completions have increased by 9% to stand at 23,512 homes. Starts have decreased by 2% across the same period to 19,204 homes. Private-led completions rose by 10% (1,491 homes) and housing association completions rose by 30% (1,164 homes), whilst local authority completions decreased by 28% (758 homes). Private-led starts increased slightly by 1% (105 homes), whilst housing association new build approvals decreased by 11% (305 homes) and local authority new build starts decreased by 5% (105 homes).

Chart 2 below presents the latest quarterly trends in completions to end March 2023, in which there were 5,423 all-sector completions in the latest quarter January to March 2023, a decrease of 2% (107 homes) on the 5,530 completions in the same quarter in 2022.

The 3,483 private sector led completions in January to March 2023 is a decrease of 2% (62 homes) on the 3,545 completions in the same quarter in 2022.

The 402 local authority completions in January to March 2023 is a decrease of 54% (468 homes) on the 870 completions in the same quarter in 2022.

Meanwhile the 1,538 housing association completions in January to March 2023 is an increase of 38% (423 homes) on the 1,115 completions in the same quarter in 2022.

Chart 2: The total level of all-sector new housebuilding completions in the latest quarter January to March 2023 is lower than the same quarters in 2019 and 2022, but higher than the same quarters in 2020 and 2021.

Chart 3 shows the equivalent quarterly trends in starts, in which there were 4,423 all-sector starts in the latest quarter January to March 2023. This is a decrease of 16% (874 homes) on the 5,297 starts in the same quarter in 2022.

The 2,857 private sector led starts in January to March 2023 is a decrease of 22% (819 homes) on the 3,676 starts in the same quarter in 2022.

The 348 local authority starts in January to March 2023 is a decrease of 57% (454 homes) on the 802 starts in the same quarter in 2022.

Meanwhile the 1,218 housing association approvals in January to March 2023 is an increase of 49% (399 homes) on the 819 approvals in the same quarter in 2022.

Chart 3: The total level of all-sector new housebuilding starts in the latest quarter January to March 2023 is lower than the same quarters in each year from 2019.

Map A below shows that in the year to end March 2023, the highest new build rates were observed in the local authority areas of Midlothian, East Lothian, West Lothian, Na h-Eileanan Siar, Perth & Kinross, East Renfrewshire, Inverclyde, and Renfrewshire, which each had rates of more than 56 homes per 10,000 population.

The lowest rates were observed in Orkney Islands, East Dunbartonshire, Clackmannanshire, Scottish Borders, Falkirk, Angus, Argyll & Bute, Stirling, North Lanarkshire, Glasgow City, and Dumfries & Galloway, which each had rates of 30 homes or fewer per 10,000 population.

Note that All sector completion rates calculations contain some estimated figures for Aberdeen City, Angus, East Dunbartonshire, Highland, South Ayrshire, and Stirling. Further details are in the notes section.

New housebuilding across UK countries

Chart 4a presents trends in the rates of all-sector new housebuilding completions per 10,000 population across each of the UK countries on a financial year basis (years to end March) to allow for comparisons with both the England financial year ‘net additional dwelling’ statistics and financial year rates derived from each of the quarterly UK series.

The England financial year ‘net additional dwellings' series is considered the primary and most comprehensive measure of housing supply in England. The quarterly new build statistical collection for England based on building control is not currently capturing all new build activity, and so is seen more as a leading indicator of activity throughout the year.

The chart shows that whilst Scotland had a higher rate of completions per 10,000 head of population than England (‘net additional dwellings’ series) over the period 2007/08 to 2013/14, that Scotland and England have since seen broadly similar rates of housebuilding each year across the period 2014/15 to 2021/22, with the exception of 2020/21 in which Scotland saw a sharper fall, possibly due to the stricter COVID-19 lockdown restrictions that were in place for housing building in Scotland.

Figures for the financial year 2021/22 show that in in all four countries, the completions rate increased from the previous year, with Scotland having the largest increase, up to 39 homes per 10,000 population. This rate in Scotland for 2021/22 is similar to the rate of 39 per 10,000 in Northern Ireland and the rate of 37 in England (‘net additional dwellings’ series), and is above the rate of 17 in Wales.

Figures for the financial year 2022/23 for England and Wales are yet to be released, however the rate of 43 homes per 10,000 population in Scotland is higher than the rate of 34 in Northern Ireland.

Chart 4a: New housebuilding completions as a rate per 10,000 population (years to end March) - Scotland has a rate of 43 in the latest year to end March 2023, increasing from 39 in the previous year.

Chart 4b presents more equivalent trends on a quarterly basis, based on the latest published information available for each country[1]. The England ‘net additional dwelling’ figures for the financial years 2019/20, 2020/21 and 2021/22 are also included as averages across each of the quarters within these years, to help demonstrate the difference in the relative level between this figure and the separate quarterly England building control based figures.

The chart shows the clear impact of COVID-19 lockdown restrictions on construction activity in the quarter April to June 2020, with the rates of new housebuilding per 10,000 population dropping compared to the same quarter in the previous year by 85% in Scotland, 64% in England (building control based figures), and 61% in Northern Ireland, which may reflect stricter lockdown restrictions for Scottish housing building compared to England and Northern Ireland.

Following this, the rates of new housebuilding in each of these countries have subsequently increased back up to higher levels, and trends appear to have been broadly flat following this, except for the quarterly rates in Northern Ireland which have shown a downward trend over the quarters following the October to December 2020 quarter.

Chart 4b: Quarterly new housebuilding completion rates per 10,000 population for Scotland, Northern Ireland, England and Wales.