Reconviction Rates in Scotland: 2011-12 Offender Cohort

11 Annex

11.1 The effect of pseudo reconvictions

11.1.1 Pseudo reconvictions are convictions which occur after the index conviction, but relate to offences committed prior to the index conviction. They can arise in cases where there are several sets of proceedings in train against an individual for offences committed on a range of dates. They could potentially have the following effects:

• In theory they may exaggerate the rate of "real" reconvictions to some extent.
• They will complicate comparisons between reconviction rates for different types of disposal as they will tend to be less common for offenders who are discharged from a long custodial sentence compared to those given non-custodial sentences.
• They will tend to be more significant when considering reconviction rates for groups of offenders with a relatively high frequency of offending, such as younger offenders, or those engaged in acquisitive crime.

11.1.2 However, excluding pseudo reconvictions will not necessarily result in an improved estimate of the reconviction rate, unless one also addresses the issue of offences committed during the follow-up period, but which have a conviction date outside of this period and are therefore currently excluded from the calculation. Excluding both cases is likely to result in a downward bias of the estimate, and we are currently assessing the feasibility of moving to a reconviction indicator based on proven reoffending, similar to the approach adopted by the Ministry of Justice (see Appendix C in Adult re-convictions: results from the 2009 cohort (England and Wales) for further details of this methodology). One year and two year reconviction rates and average number of reconvictions without pseudo reconvictions were shown in previous publications for the purposes of illustration. For the 2011-12 cohort these can be found in the additional datasets which accompany this publication.

11.2 Background and methodology

11.2.1 The Scottish Offenders Index (SOI) currently contains data on 518,000 offenders and 1,881,000 convictions since SOI records began in 1989. According to earlier analyses of this dataset, 84 per cent of offenders were male. Fifty-seven per cent of convictions recorded on the SOI are accounted for by 15 per cent of offenders who each had 6 or more convictions. Only 17 per cent of male offenders and 6 per cent of female offenders present on the SOI had received one or more custodial convictions since 1989, whereas 80 per cent of males and 66 per cent of females had received more than one fine or other monetary penalty.

Definitions

The following terminology is applied throughout the bulletin:

Average number of reconvictions per offender - in a cohort it is the total number of reconvictions from a court recorded within a specified follow up period from the date of index convictions, divided by the total number of offenders in the cohort with index convictions from a court. Unless otherwise stated, the average number of reconvictions that are quoted in this bulletin are for a follow-up period of one year.

Cohort - all offenders who either received a non-custodial conviction or were released from a custodial sentence in a given financial year from the 1^st April to the 31^st March the following year. In the analyses for non-court disposals, a cohort is all the individuals who either received a police or COPFS disposal in a given financial year.

Conviction - a formal declaration by the verdict of a jury or the decision of a judge in a court of law that someone is guilty of a criminal offence.

Crime or Offence - an action that is deemed to be illegal under common or statutory law. Contraventions of the law are divided, for statistical purposes only, into crimes and offences.

Custodial reconviction - a reconviction which resulted in a custodial sentence being imposed.

Date of the index conviction -the sentence date for non-custodial sentences or the estimated date of discharge from custody for custodial convictions.

Date of the index non-court disposal - the date the non-court disposal was imposed.

Disposal - the sentence given for a court conviction, or the action taken in non-court cases.

Index conviction -is the reference conviction which is determined by either: (a) the estimated release date for a custodial sentence imposed for the conviction, or (b) the sentence date for non-custodial sentences imposed for the conviction. Whichever conviction has the earliest of these dates in a given financial year is the index conviction.

Index crime or offence- the main crime or offence of the index conviction.

Index disposal - the type of sentence imposed for the index conviction.

Index non-court disposal - the reference police or COPFS disposal imposed (e.g. a fine), which is the first non-court disposal given to an individual in a given financial year.

Previous convictions - convictions preceding the index convictions.

Pseudo reconviction - convictions which occur after the index conviction, but relate to offences committed prior to the index conviction.

Recidivism - repeated reoffending after being convicted.

Reconviction - conviction after the relevant date of the index conviction.

Reconviction rate -the percentage of offenders with index convictions from a court in the cohort who were reconvicted one or more times by a court within a specified follow up period from the relevant date of the index conviction. Unless otherwise stated, the reconviction rates that are quoted in this bulletin are for a follow-up period of one year.

Reoffending - the action of committing a further offence after a conviction.

11.2.2 Information on convictions and reconvictions is not the same thing as information on offending and reoffending, or recidivism. Not all offences which are committed are reported to the police, while some of those that are reported and recorded do not result in an offender being identified, charged and a report being sent to the Procurator Fiscal. For cases which are reported to the Procurator Fiscal, it may be decided to take no proceedings, or to employ some alternative to prosecution such as a warning letter or a fiscal fine. Where persons are prosecuted, the proceedings may end up being dropped, e.g. witnesses fail to turn up, or accused is acquitted. Convictions and reconvictions are therefore a subset of actual offending and reoffending, and reconviction rates only a proxy measure of reoffending rates.

11.2.3 The Scottish Prison Service has previously published annual return to custody information by gender, type of offender, age of offender, type of offence, length of time in prison prior to release, and the time between release and subsequent return for those offenders who return to prison within the follow up period. This information can be accessed via their website at www.sps.gov.uk.

11.3 Sources of information

11.3.1 Information presented in this bulletin is based on data held in the SOI, which is in turn derived from information held on the Criminal History System (CHS) at the Scottish Police Authority (SPA). It currently contains a record of criminal proceedings against individuals (excluding companies) in Scottish courts as well as information on non-court disposals. The data in the SOI currently covers all convictions where a sentence was imposed since the beginning 1989, and the main offence involved was either a crime in Groups 1-5 of the Scottish Government's classification of crimes; or some offences in Group 6 which are common assault, breach of the peace, threatening or abusive behaviour, offence of stalking, offensive behaviour at football, threatening communications (under the Offensive behaviour at football and threatening communication Scotland Act 2012), racially aggravated harassment or conduct, miscellaneous firearms offences, and social security offences. Groups 1-5 of the Scottish Government's classification covers crimes of violence, sexual crimes, crimes involving dishonesty, fire-raising and vandalism, and other crimes.

11.3.2 The figures in the bulletin have been derived from administrative IT systems which, as with any large scale recording system, are subject to possible errors with data entry and processing. The CHS is regularly updated so that further analysis at a later date will generate revised figures (as shown in the table at the end of this section). The extent of error or omitted records on the CHS is difficult to estimate because it is a unique data-source. As a result, there is not always an obvious source of data to provide a baseline from which to assess data quality.

11.3.3 The CHS is not designed for statistical purposes. It is dependent on receiving timely information from the courts, COPFS, and the police. It should also be noted that some types of outcome, such as acquittals, are removed from the system after a prescribed length of time. A pending case on the CHS is updated in a timely manner, but there are occasions when a slight delay may happen. Recording delays of this sort generally affect High Court disposals relatively more than those for other types of court. The figures provided in this bulletin reflect the details of court proceedings as made available to, and recorded at the SPA, and as supplied to the Scottish Government by the end of July 2013 to allow later convictions for 2012-13 to be captured on the CHS.

11.3.4 Each record on the SOI database includes information on the sex and age of the offender, the dates of conviction and sentence, the main offence involved and details of the sentence imposed. Information is also available on any offences which were additional to the main offence involved. Each offender has a unique reference number, which allows individual convictions for that offender to be linked together (The SOI is a statistical database and personal information on offenders is not held on it).

11.3.5 While virtually all convictions since 1989, for crimes listed in section 11.3.1, are covered by the SOI, other types of conviction are not. These include minor statutory and common law offences (such as drunkenness), convictions in courts outside of Scotland, convictions prior to 1989, and any relevant convictions not recorded by the SPA by the end of July 2013.

11.3.6 All but the most serious offences alleged to have been committed by children under the age of 16 are generally dealt with by the children's hearings system. The SOI does not currently hold information on offenders' juvenile offending history.

11.3.7 The method described in section 11.4.11 cannot be used to accurately identify the release date for offenders serving life sentences or, in some instances, very lengthy determinate sentences. Therefore this category of offender will not have been available for possible selection for the set of index convictions in each cohort year. However, the number of offenders involved is relatively small (only around 50 offenders receive such sentences each year) and so will not affect the analysis presented in this bulletin significantly. Separate research evidence (Life Sentence Prisoners in Scotland, Scottish Office, Machin et al, 1999) shows that just over a quarter of the 491 life sentence prisoners released on licence were reconvicted.

11.3.8 The calculations of index offences and reconvictions in this year's bulletin include new offences, which weren't included in calculations in previous bulletins. Therefore, the revised figures from 2010 onwards, when the acts relating to the offences came into effect, are slightly higher than the figures reported in the 2013 Reconvictions Bulletin (see the following Revisions to Reconviction Rates table). The new offences that have been included are "Threating or abusive behaviour" and "Offence of stalking", which are part of the Criminal Justice and Licensing (Scotland) Act 2010; and "Offensive behaviour at football (under the Offensive behaviour at football and threatening communication Scotland Act 2012)", and "Threatening communications (under the Offensive behaviour at football and threatening communication Scotland Act 2012)". These offences are grouped under "breach of peace" in tables 6 and 12, in line with Recorded Crime in Scotland 2012-13 publication.

Revisions to Reconviction Rates

(see note 1)

Cohort	Initial published figures		1st revision of published figures		2nd revision of published figures		3rd revision of published figures
	Reconv. rate	Av. no. of reconvs. per offender	Reconv. rate	Av. no. of reconvs. per offender	Reconv. rate	Av. no. of reconvs. per offender	Reconv. rate	Av. no. of reconvs. per offender
2006-07	32.2	0.59*†	32.4	0.60*†	32.4	0.60†	32.4	0.60†
2007-08	30.9	0.56*†	31.2	0.57†	31.3	0.57†	31.2	0.57†
2008-09	31.0	0.58†	31.5	0.60†	31.5	0.60†	31.5	0.60
2009-10	30.1	0.54†	30.5	0.56†	30.6	0.56	-	-
2010-11	28.4	0.50†	30.1	0.55	-	-	-	-
2011-12	29.2	0.53	-	-	-	-	-	-

1. This year's bulletin included some new offences in calculations for the reconviction rate and the average number of reconvictions. These offences weren't included in the calculations in previous years' bulletins, so the increase in the numbers after revision is slightly higher than it has been in previous years. See note in section 11.3.8.
* These figures were not published initially, but it is possible to determine their magnitude retrospectively.
† These figures have been previously reported as the reconviction frequency rate, which was the number of reconvictions per 100 offenders. Therefore these figures are the original figure divided by 100 to get the average number of reconvictions per offender.

11.4 Counting rules, data definitions, and notation

Counting rules

11.4.1 All but the most serious offences alleged to have been committed by children under the age of 16 are generally dealt with by the children's hearings system. The SOI does not currently hold information on offenders' juvenile offending history.

11.4.2 If more than one set of court proceedings against an offender is disposed of on the same day, then each occasion will be counted as a separate conviction record in the SOI collection of reconvictions.

11.4.3 Generally only the initial court sentence is included in the statistics on convictions, so that, for example, a person fined is regarded as fined, even if he or she subsequently goes to prison in default of payment. Similarly, the offenders released from prison who are included in the analysis in this bulletin will only include those directly sentenced to prison, i.e. persons released after imprisonment for fine default are excluded. Also, no account is taken of the outcome of appeals, or of interim decisions such as deferral of sentence.

11.4.4 Where a person is convicted for more than one charge, then it is the main offence which is recorded in the SOI. The main offence is taken to be the charge receiving the severest penalty. If more than one charge receives the same (or a combined) penalty, then the main offence is the one judged to be the most serious based on the Scottish Government's classification of crimes and offences. The exception to this is where an offender was sentenced for a crime against public justice (such as "failure to appear") and other offences on the same day, then the most serious of the latter is taken as being the main offence (even where the crime against public justice had attracted the heaviest penalty).

11.4.5 The police record very detailed information on statutory offences but this does not always correspond exactly to the Scottish Government classification of crimes and offences. The most important example in numerical terms is an offence under Section 41(1)(a) of the Police (Scotland) Act 1967. This offence relates to "any person who assaults, resists, obstructs, molests or hinders a constable..". Scottish Government classification divides this into 3 categories - resisting arrest, serious assault, and common assault, but this distinction is not made by the courts. The majority of such cases are thought to have been classed as common assault, and all the offences under this subsection have been so classified from 1988 onwards. Only a minimal number of cases are affected by other instances of this type of problem.

11.4.6 In order to analyse reconvictions, a decision has to be made as to which of an individual's convictions in a series is to be taken as a reference point, or "index conviction". That is, the conviction before which all convictions are counted as previous convictions, and after which are counted as reconvictions. In this bulletin, the rule for choosing the index conviction is: (a) the first occasion in the financial year in question when an individual was given a non-custodial sentence, (b) the first date when an individual was estimated to have been released from prison from a custodial sentence, whichever occurred first in the financial year. This is defined to be the offender's index conviction. The crime and sentence involved in this index conviction are referred to throughout this bulletin as the "index crime" and "index disposal", respectively. The analysis then considers the proportion of these individuals who are reconvicted within one year (or two years in Table 11) from the date of sentence or the estimated prison release date, i.e. from the relevant date of the index conviction. Convictions for a Crime against public justice, such as committing an offence while on bail, are not considered as index convictions. If the first conviction in the year for a particular offender was for such an offence, their next conviction which wasn't a Crime against public justice was taken instead. Where an individual had no further convictions in the year for crimes other than Crimes against public justice they are not included in the data set.

11.4.7 Where there is a choice of more than one index conviction for an individual, i.e. where they received more than one sentence disposal on the same day, then the one selected is by reference to a) the most severe form of sentence, and then b) the most serious main offence.

11.4.8 The counting rules for non-court disposals are similar to those for analysing court reconvictions. When analysing non-court disposals, the first police or COPFS disposal in the financial year in question is counted as the index non-court disposal. Further non-court disposals from either the police or COPFS within one year of the index non-court disposal are counted, regardless whether the index non-court disposal was issued by the police or COPFS.

Data definitions

11.4.9 Crimes and offences and sentence type have been grouped in this bulletin as follows.

Crime category	Crimes and offences included
Violent crime	Murder, culpable homicide, attempted murder, serious assault, robbery, common assault, other violence.
Sexual crime	Sexual Crime includes Sexual assault and Other indecency. Sexual Assault includes: Rape; Attempted rape; Contact sexual assault (13-15 yr. old or adult 16+); Sexually coercive conduct (13-15 yr. old or adult 16+); Sexual offences against children under 13 years; and Lewd and libidinous practices. Other Indecency includes: Other sexually coercive conduct; Other sexual offences involving 13-15 year old children; Taking, distribution, possession etc. of indecent photos of children; Incest; Unnatural Crimes; Public indecency; Sexual exposure; and Other sexual offences. These are the notifiable crimes for an offender who has been placed on the sex offenders register. The definitions are aligned with the Criminal Proceedings in Scotland publication. Sexual Crime excludes offences associated with prostitution.
Prostitution	Procuration (excluding homosexual acts); Brothel keeping; Immoral traffic; Offences related to prostitution; Procuration of homosexual acts; Procuration of sexual services from children under 18; and Soliciting services of a person engaged in prostitution.
Dishonesty	Housebreaking, theft by opening lockfast places, theft of motor vehicle, other theft, fraud, other crimes of dishonesty and social security offences.
Criminal damage	Fire-raising, vandalism.
Drug offences	Illegal importation, supply or possession of drugs, other drug offences
Breach of the peace	Breach of the peace, racially aggravated harassment, racially aggravated conduct.
Other crimes and offences	Crimes against public justice, (Breach of sexual offender order and breach of sexual harm order are included in Crimes against public justice), handling offensive weapons (in possession of an offensive weapon; having in a public place an article with a blade or point, and restriction of weapons), miscellaneous firearm offences, other crimes and offences (not elsewhere specified).
Serious violent crime	As per violent crime, but including only those convictions which took place in the High Court or a Sheriff solemn court.
Serious crime	All convictions which took place in the High Court or in a sheriff solemn court, and any other convictions for serious assault, robbery, possession of a firearm with intent to endanger life etc., abduction, attempted rape and indecent assault.

Sentence category	Sentences included
Custody	Custodial sentence to prison, young offender's institution, or child detention, excluding life and indeterminate sentences.
CPO	Community Payback Order[10]
CSO	Community Service Order
PO	Probation Order (with or without CSO or RLO)
DTTO	Drug Treatment and Testing Order
RLO	Restriction of Liberty Order
Monetary	Fine, compensation order, caution.
Other	Supervised Attendance Orders, absolute discharge, remit to children's hearing, admonishment, hospital order, guardianship order, finding of insanity, hospital order & restricted order, supervision and treatment order and disposals not elsewhere specified.
Police disposals	Anti-social behaviour fixed penalty notices (ASBFPNs), formal adult warnings, other police warnings.
Crown Office and Procurator Fiscal Service disposals	Fiscal fines, fiscal fixed penalties.

11.4.10 The age of each person relates to their age at the time that sentence was passed. This also applies to offenders discharged from a custodial sentence, i.e. their age at the date of sentence rather than estimated release date is taken.

11.4.11 Information on actual dates of release for prisoners is not currently available for matching with the conviction data held on the Scottish Offenders Index. For the purposes of the analysis in this bulletin, the date of release for offenders given a custodial sentence has therefore been estimated from their date of sentence, the length of sentence imposed, assumptions about time spent on remand and release on parole, and information about whether the offender had been granted bail. The release date estimated by this approach will not always tie in with the actual release date because the offender may be serving other custodial sentences, for example. However, this is not judged to be significant for the purposes of the current analysis. The main exception to this relates to offenders discharged from life sentences or, for some cohorts, very long determinate custodial sentences - see Section 11.3.7.