Reconviction Rates in Scotland: 2012-13 Offender Cohort

2 Key points

• The reconviction rate and average number of reconvictions per offender have been generally declining over the past decade. Between 2003-04 and the most recent cohort of 2012-13, the reconviction rate decreased by 4.1 percentage points from 32.7 per cent to 28.6 per cent. In the same period, the average number of reconvictions per offender decreased by nearly 18 per cent from 0.62 to 0.51 (Table 1).
• Male offenders have more reconvictions on average than females. In 2012-13 the average number of reconvictions for male offenders was 0.53 which is 23 per cent higher than the value of 0.43 for females (Table 2).

• There has been a marked fall in the average number of reconvictions for offenders aged under 25 over the past 10 years. In 2003-04 the average number of reconvictions per offenders in the under 21 age group was 0.82 and it had decreased 31 per cent to 0.57 in 2012-13. In the same period the average number of reconvictions per offender for the 21 to 25 age group decreased by 28 per cent from 0.72 to 0.52 (Table 3).
• In contrast to the younger age groups, the average number of reconvictions per offender for the older age groups have generally increased over the same period. Between 2003-04 and 2012-13 the average number of reconvictions per offender for the 31 to 40 age group increased by 12 per cent from 0.50 to 0.56, and increased by 20 per cent for the over 40 age group from 0.30 to 0.36.
• Offenders who commit a crime of dishonesty have the highest average number of reconvictions per offender (0.90 in 2012-13), whereas offenders who commit a sexual crime have the lowest (0.17 in 2012-13), compared to offenders that committed other crimes (Table 6).
• ^[1]Offenders with an index disposal of a Community Payback Order (CPO) in 2012-13 had an average number of reconvictions per offender of 0.55 (Table 8). This average was 11 per cent lower than the figure of 0.62 for those offenders with index disposals of Community Service Orders and Probation Orders in 2009-10, prior to the introduction of CPOs.
• Offenders given a Drug Treatment and Testing Order (DTTO) have the highest average number of reconvictions compared to other disposals, although this number has dropped considerably over the past ten years. In 2003-04 the average number of reconvictions per offender was 2.21 and in 2012-13 it was 1.46, representing a drop of 34 per cent, or three quarters of a reconviction per offender on average (Table 8).
• Offenders released from a custodial sentence had an average number of reconvictions of 0.87 (Table 8). Those released from a sentence of 3 months or less have, on average, a higher number of reconvictions than those released from longer custodial sentences (Table 9). However, offenders that commit relatively low level crimes but in high volumes are more likely to be reconvicted, and these offenders are more likely to get short custodial sentences.