Reconviction Rates in Scotland: 2019-20 Offender Cohort

Impact of COVID restrictions on the Justice system and these statistics

Offenders in the 2019-20 cohort covers reoffending between April 2019 and March 2021, depending on when the offender joined the cohort (see diagram on page 1). This means these figures in part cover the first full year of the COVID-19 pandemic and the impact of this across the justice system. Whilst it is not yet possible to isolate the impact of the pandemic on the data, it is reasonable to conclude that the latest data is predominantly a reflection of the impact of the pandemic across the justice system and should not be interpreted as indicative of longer-term trends. This message applies to all of the statistics presented in this publication, even if not explicitly stated in every instance to avoid repetition.

Whilst this publication focuses predominantly on court and out-of-court measures for dealing with offending, the pandemic affected all parts of the justice system. These figures reflect, to varying degrees, the impact of the pandemic across all parts of the system. These include but are not limited to; changes in offending behaviour and the types of crime reported to and recorded by the police; case processing times and prioritisation by COPFS and SCTS; and reductions in court capacity and the types of court available for cases to be heard. Whilst all court types experienced some reduction in capacity over the course of the pandemic, not all court types were affected equally. This is likely to have had a significant impact on the mix of cases concluded in court and associated sentencing outcomes, presented in the figures here.

The 2020-21 criminal proceedings publication shows a dramatic decrease in the number of people proceeded against by 46% and the number of convictions by 44% in the first year affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.

This publication focusses on reconvictions within one year of entering the cohort. As this is a time sensitive measure, the Journey Times publication gives further detail on the impact of COVID on case processing and therefore reconviction rates. Further information on how the COVID-19 pandemic affected the Justice System in Scotland, including information from Police Scotland, Crown Office and Procurator Fiscal Service, courts and prisons is provided in the Justice Analytical Services monthly data report.