Reconviction Rates in Scotland: 2019-20 Offender Cohort

1. Main findings: reconviction rates for court disposals

1.1 Headline figures

(Table 1)

The trends presented in this publication are affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. The number of offenders in the 2019-20 cohort remains unaffected as they were either released from custody or given a non-court disposal by the end of March 2020. However, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the justice system will have affected the number of offenders in this cohort being reconvicted throughout 2020-21. These two observations give an indication of changes in reconviction rates and average number of reconvictions per offender for this cohort.

The reconviction rate, which is the percentage of offenders who are reconvicted in a year, was 24.1% in 2019-20. This is a 4.5 percentage point decrease from 28.6% in 2018-19. The average number of reconvictions per offender, a measure of how often offenders are reconvicted, decreased by 22% in the same period from 0.51 to 0.40. See Chart 1 and Table 1.

Over the longer term, the reconviction rate and average number of reconvictions per offender (Table 1 and Chart 1) have generally decreased over the past decade. However, the decrease seen this year is larger, most likely due to the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Between 2010-11 and 2019-20, the reconviction rate has fallen by 6.1 percentage points from 30.1% to 24.1%, and the average number of reconvictions per offender has decreased by 27% from 0.55 to 0.40. More widely, other measures of crime also show decreases over the same time period, and showing in Recorded Crime in Scotland, 2020-21 and the Scottish Crime and Justice Survey.

The size of the cohort has decreased in the past four years, after increasing in the three years before that. The cohort size marginally decreased by 2.5% from 32,903 in 2018-19 to 32,067 in 2019-20. This is the smallest cohort in the past 23 years, and is 40% lower than the largest cohort of 53,460 in 1997-98. The shrinking cohort reflects the decreases in the number of people convicted seen in the Criminal Proceedings Statistics since 2015-16. The slight lag in the reconviction cohort compared to the number of people convicted, is likely to be because those given custodial sentences are counted at sentence date in the Criminal Proceedings Statistics, whereas they are counted later in a reconvictions cohort at the estimated time when they are released. The COVID-19 pandemic is expected to have had a negligible effect on the size of the 2019-20 cohort, as any changes to the expected number of individuals given a non-custodial sentence or released from a custodial sentence due to the pandemic would only occur in the last weeks in March 2020.

1.2 Age and sex

(Table 2, Table 3, Table 4 and Table 5)

Sex

Sex in this bulletin is generally based on a person's physiology as perceived by a police officer, rather than self-identified gender, and is recorded when a person's details are entered into the CHS. Sex may be different to that recorded at birth if a person has a Gender Recognition Certificate. In a small number of records, sex will be recorded as unknown if a clear understanding of the sex of the individual is not known. See Annex A11 and A12 for further details.

Both measures of reconvictions are higher for males than females, as in previous years.

Males make up the vast majority of offenders in each cohort, with males making up 83% of the cohort in 2019-20. Continuing a persistent long-term trend, males have higher reconviction rates and a higher average number of reconvictions per offender than females (Table 2). In 2019-20, the reconviction rate was 24.7% for males and 21.0% for females, and average number of reconvictions per offender was 0.41 for males, and 0.36 for females.

Both measures of reconvictions decreased for males and females over the past year.

Both measures of reconvictions for males and females are lower than they were last year. For males, the reconviction rate decreased by 4.7 percentage points from 29.3% in 2018-19 to 24.7% in 2019-20, and the average number of reconvictions decreased 21% from 0.52 to 0.41 in the same period. For females, the reconviction rate decreased 3.9 percentage points from 25.0% in 2018-19 to 21.0% in 2019-20 and the average number of reconvictions decreased 26% in the past year.

Over the longer-term, reconvictions for males have generally decreased, but are similar for females.

In the past decade, the average number of reconvictions fell by 29% for males from 0.57 in 2010-11 to 0.41 in 2019-20, and the reconviction rate fell by 6.8 percentage points from 31.4% to 24.7% in the same period. For females, the average number of reconvictions was 0.45 in 2010-11, and has fluctuated over the past decade. However, the large decrease in 2019-20 to 0.36 must be contextualised by the COVID-19 pandemic. The reconviction rate for females was 23.9% in 2010-11 and was slightly lower in 2019-20 at 21.0%.

Age

All age groups showed a decrease in both measures of reconvictions between 2018-19 and 2019-20.

The decreases in the reconviction rate ranged from 2.3 percentage points in the over 40 year olds, to 7.4 percentage points in the under 21s age group (Table 3). The decrease in the average number of reconvictions ranged from 16% in the over 40s to 27% in the under 21s.

Under 21s have some of the highest reconviction levels and the over 40s have the lowest

The reconviction rate for under 21s were the highest of the age groups in 2019-20 (26.3%), and average number of reconvictions was the joint highest (0.45, along with 31 to 40 year olds). Both measures were the lowest for the over 40s (18.7% and 0.31, respectively), as they have been historically. The other age groups (21 to 25, 26 to 30, and 31 to 40) had values closer to the under 21s, with reconviction rates ranging from 25.1% to 26.9%, and average number of reconvictions ranging from 0.41 to 0.43 (Table 3).

Reconvictions for Under 21s have decreased substantially over the past 23 years.

Over time, the average number of reconvictions for under 21s have decreased by approximately half (52%) in 23 years, from a high of 0.93 in 1997-98 to the latest figure of 0.45 in 2019-20. However, between 2011-12 and 2018-19, numbers have been fluctuating (ranging between 0.59 and 0.65) (Table 3).

It should also be noted that the under 21 cohort size decreased substantially in the past 23 years by more than three quarters (79%) from 13,796 in 1997-98 to 2,876 in 2019-20. It has decreased by 65% in the past decade alone from 8,239 in 2010-11. The fall is in part due to dealing with youth offending outside of court and early interventions. In terms of its effect on the national cohort size, in 1997-98 the under 21 cohort represented 26% of the national cohort, compared to 9% in the most recent cohort. This large change in the under 21 cohort size, coupled with the decrease in reconvictions for this group, means that changes in this group are a significant component of the reduction in the overall national reconviction rate.

Reconvictions for the over 21s have fluctuated in recent years, before a decrease in 2019-20

The average number of reconvictions for the 21 to 25 age group is lower than it was a decade ago, with a decrease of 32% from 0.59 in 2010-11 to 0.41 in 2019-20. However, most of that decrease was in the early part of the decade and they fluctuated across 2014-15 to 2019-20, before dropping again in this first year affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. There was a similar pattern for the 26 to 30 group, with the average number of reconvictions 34% lower than it was a decade ago, with a figure of 0.65 in 2010-11 compared to 0.43 in 2019-20, and the figure fluctuated in the three years before 2019-20.

Before this year's decrease, reconvictions for the over 30s have fluctuated over the past decade. (Table 3). The cohort size for the over 40 group represented 29% of the 2019-20 cohort, compared to 12% of the 1997-98 cohort. As the over 40 group has the lowest reconviction rates of any age group, the increasing cohort size has been a partial component of the reductions seen in the overall national reconviction rate.

Age and sex

Patterns of change in reconvictions (both rates and average numbers) for males of different age groups are generally similar over time (Table 4) to those for all offenders (Table 3), as males comprise the majority of offenders in the cohort (84% in 2019-20) (Chart 3).

All male age groups showed a decrease in both measures of reconvictions between 2018-19 and 2019-20.

The decreases in reconviction rates ranged from 2.2 percentage points in the over 40 age group to 8.5 percentage points in the under 21 age group. The average number of reconvictions for all age groups decreased, with the biggest decrease, in percentage terms, being a 29% decrease in the under 21s from 0.64 to 0.46 (Table 4 and Chart 3).

Historically, the average number of reconvictions used to decrease with age, but in recent years the pattern has changed as the gap has narrowed between the age groups with all bar the over 40s having similar average numbers. In 2018-19, under 21s and 31 to 40 year olds had the highest average number of reconvictions of the male age groups (0.46), followed by those aged 26 to 30 (0.45) and those aged 21 to 25 (0.41); with the over 40s having the lowest (0.32) (Table 4 and Chart 3).

All female age groups showed a decrease in both measures of reconvictions in the past year.

The reconviction rate for all female age groups decreased. The decreases in reconviction rates ranged from 1.6 percentage points in the 21 to 25 age group, to 8.8 percentage points in the 26 to 30 age group.

The average number of reconvictions decreased for all female age groups in the past year, with the largest decrease in percentage terms, a 37% drop in the 26 to 30 age group from 0.55 to 0.35 (Table 5).

The pattern of reconvictions across female age groups is slightly different to males.

In 2019-20, the age group with the highest average number of reconvictions was the 31 to 40 group (0.44), followed by under 21 (0.40), 21-25 (0.37), and 26 to 30 (0.35). The lowest was the over 40s (0.27) (Chart 6). One notable difference to males regarding the average number of reconvictions is for the under 21 age group, which has always been the highest of the male age groups (Table 4 and Chart 3), but this hasn't been the case for the under 21 female age group since 2002-03 (Table 5 and Chart 4). Another difference is in the 26-30 age group in 2019-20, which is comparable to the highest average number of convictions for males age group, but only over 40s have a lower average for women.

1.3 Index crime

(Table 6 and Table 7)

An "index crime" is the crime which resulted in the "index conviction", the reference conviction which reconvictions are counted from. If a person was convicted for more than one charge in a set of proceedings, then the crime that was given the most serious disposal is counted as the index crime (see Annex A4). See Annex Table A1 and Annex A5 for definitions.

In general, offenders who were convicted for lower-level index crimes which tend to be committed in higher volumes, are more likely to be reconvicted than those who commit more serious crimes.

Note that different disposals are given for different crimes, which may also affect the likelihood of reoffending.

As has been true since 1997-98, offenders with an index crime of dishonesty (see Annex A17 for crime groupings), have the highest average number of reconvictions per offender and reconviction rate of any of the index crimes (Table 6 and Chart 5). For offenders convicted of crimes of dishonesty in the 2019-20 cohort, the reconviction rate was 40.2%, and an average of 0.81 reconvictions per offender. This compares to offenders with an index crime of a sexual crime, which had the lowest reconviction rate (10.8%) and lowest average number of reconvictions per offender (0.15) of any index crime (Chart 5 and Table 6).

Offenders from the 2019-20 cohort who had index crimes other than sexual crimes or crimes of dishonesty, had an average number of reconvictions per offender ranging between 0.29 for violent crime and 0.42 for criminal damages. The reconviction rates ranged between 18.9% for violent crime, and 27.0% criminal damages (Table 6).

Reconviction rates decreased for almost all categories of index crime over the past year, except sexual crimes.

Crimes of dishonesty and other crimes and offences had the largest decrease in the reconviction rate over the past year, with a 6.0 and 6.2 percentage point decrease respectively. This was followed by drug offences (4.8 percentage point decrease), breach of the peace (4.8 percentage point decrease), criminal damage (3.4 percentage point decrease) and violent crime (3.1 percentage point decrease) (Table 6). In contrast, the reconviction rate for sexual crimes increased by 0.2 percentage points. (Table 6). This increase in rate for sexual crimes goes against trends in 2019-20 of lower reconviction rates, caveated by the COVID-19 pandemic.

The average number of reconvictions decreased for all index crimes in the past year.

The average number of reconvictions decreased for violent crimes, sexual crimes, dishonesty, criminal damage, drug offences, breach of the peace, and other crimes and offences. The largest decrease in percentage terms, was a 26% decrease for drug offences from 0.40 in 2018-19 to 0.30 in 2019-20 (Table 6 and Chart 5).

Over the past decade, trends in reconvictions across crime types have been mixed.

Apart from the rise in 2018-19, violent crime, breach of the peace, and drug offences were on a general downwards trend. It is unclear whether the return to the decrease in reconvictions is indicative of a return to the longer term trend or a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. The other groups have tended to fluctuate from year to year with no clear trend (Table 6 and Chart 5).

Reconviction crime by index crime

Table 7 shows the types of crimes that offenders in the 2019-20 cohort were reconvicted for, by each type of index crime. The majority of offenders in the cohort (over three quarters, 75.9%) were not reconvicted for any crime. For those that were reconvicted, more were reconvicted for breach of the peace than any other type of crime (8.5% of all offenders) and fewer offenders were reconvicted for a sexual crime (0.4% of all offenders).

Table 7 also highlights the degree to which offenders specialise in particular types of crime. Offenders convicted of crimes of violence, dishonesty, drug offences, and breach of the peace were reconvicted for the same type of crime more than other types. Even in the cases where the majority of offenders were reconvicted for the same crime as their index crime, there were still other offenders who were reconvicted for different crimes to their index crimes. This suggests that offenders do not completely specialise on a particular type of crime.

1.4 Domestic abuse index crimes and offences

(Table 8a, Table 8b, Table 8c and Table 8d)

The crimes and offences counted here as domestic abuse index convictions or reconvictions, are crimes and offences marked with the statutory domestic abuse aggravation or non-statutory domestic abuse identifier.

The statutory domestic abuse aggravation was created by the Abusive Behaviour and Sexual Harm (Scotland) Act 2016 and came into effect on the 24^th April 2017 for crimes that took place on or after this date. The statutory domestic abuse aggravation is marked against individual charges and, if proven in court, will be taken into account during sentencing. For example, a common assault offence committed against a partner could be marked with the statutory aggravation. This is the second year that data have been published on this aggravation. Note that the crimes and offences are mostly referred to as "crimes" below for brevity.

Crimes and offences may be also be marked with a non-statutory domestic abuse identifier by the police or COPFS. This is used for operational purposes for prosecution, but does not require proof in court and is not taken into account during sentencing. This has been in place since before the introduction of the statutory aggravation, and as such, provides us with longer time series data. We have published this here in recognition of the value of this trend data to user and will assess whether there is a continuing demand for this data in future bulletins, but it will be published in some form.

Crimes and offences with the aggravation are a subset of those with the identifier. For example, a common assault offence committed against a partner could be marked with the statutory aggravation and the identifier, or just the identifier, but not the statutory aggravation alone.

A new standalone crime of domestic abuse was created by the Domestic Abuse (Scotland) Act 2018. This crime covers a course of behaviour which is abusive of a person's partner or ex-partner. This crime was introduced on 1^st April 2019 so this is the first publication that includes this crime as an index offence. Crimes under this legislation are not shown separately but are included within the Non Sexual Crimes of Violence crime category. See Annex B for information on data quality.

Table 8a and Table 8b show the reconviction rate and average number of reconvictions per offender, respectively, for index crimes marked with a statutory domestic abuse aggravation from when it was introduced in 2017-18, to 2019-20. Reconvictions for crimes with a statutory aggravation and reconvictions for any crime (including those with a statutory aggravation) are presented separately. Index crimes without the aggravation are also included as a comparison.

Tables 8c and 8d is similar to Tables 8a and 8b, but show reconvictions for index crimes with the domestic abuse identifier from 2009-10 to 2019-20. Some of these will also have had the statutory aggravation applied. Reconvictions are also presented separately to show those for crimes with an identifier and reconvictions for any crime (including those with the identifier).

Offenders with a domestic abuse index crime were more likely to be reconvicted for a non-domestic abuse crime than a domestic abuse crime.

In 2019-20, 15.0% of offenders with an index crime marked with the statutory domestic abuse aggravation were reconvicted for any crime, compared to 5.5% reconvicted for domestic abuse crimes (Table 8a). Note that the percentage reconvicted for any crime includes those reconvicted for domestic abuse crimes, so the percent reconvicted for non-domestic abuse crimes can be calculated by subtraction, which gives a figure of 9.5% of offenders with a domestic abuse index crime reconvicted for a non-domestic abuse crime.

Reconviction rates for index crimes marked with the identifier were similar to those marked with the statutory aggravation (Table 8c). In 2019-20, 16.7% of offenders with an index crime with a domestic abuse identifier were reconvicted for any crime and 8.1% were reconvicted for a further crime with a domestic abuse identifier.

Reconvictions for index crimes with the statutory domestic abuse aggravation decreased over the past year, but increased for the identifier.

There was a slight decrease in the percentage of offenders with an index crime with a statutory domestic abuse aggravation who were reconvicted for a further domestic abuse crime in the past year (Table 8a). This decreased from 7.0% in 2018-19 to 5.5% in 2019-20. There was also a decrease in the average number of reconvictions for a further domestic abuse crime for an index crime with a statutory domestic abuse aggravation from 0.08 in 2018-19 to 0.06 in 2019-20 (Table 8b).

Table 8c shows that those with an index crime marked with a domestic abuse identifier who were reconvicted for a further domestic crime decreased by 1.3 percentage points from 9.4% in 2018-19 to 8.1% in 2019-20. There was also a slight decrease in the average number of reconvictions for those with an index crime marked with a domestic abuse identifier who were reconvicted for a further domestic crime, from 0.11 to 0.10, and this measure has remained steady over the past 10 years (Table 8d).

Additional tables showing reconvictions for domestic abuse offenders with the statutory aggravation and identifier by age, sex, crime, and disposal are published alongside this bulletin.

1.5 Index disposal

(Table 9)

The index disposal is the sentence received for an index conviction (see Annex Table A1 and Annex A5 for definitions). If a person is convicted for more than one charge in a set of proceedings, then the charge that receives the most serious disposal is counted as the index disposal (see Annex A4).

A disposal may reduce the likelihood of reoffending as offenders are rehabilitated. However, different disposals are given for different types of crime and differing offending histories and, as seen elsewhere in this bulletin, these factors are also predictors of whether an offender is likely to reoffend or not. These factors should be considered when comparing the effectiveness of different types of sentences. Table 11 gives reconviction rates for different offender characteristics for the disposals.

Custodial sentences

Reconviction rates for Extended Sentences and Supervised Release Orders (SROs) are presented separately from other custodial sentences for interest, as these have a period of supervision after release (Table 9). The custodial sentence category only includes those that were sent to prison or young offenders institutions, plus a small number of Orders for Lifelong Restriction. Note that the SROs and Extended Sentences are included in the custodial sentence length table along with the other custodial sentences (Table 10a).

Offenders released from a custodial sentence in 2019-20 had one of the highest reconviction rates and average number of reconvictions of any disposal.

The reconviction rate for offenders released from custody in the 2019-20 cohort was 39.1%, a 4.9 percentage point decrease on the 2018-19 rate of 44.0%. This decrease in the reconviction rate is the fifth decrease in the last six years. The average number of reconvictions per offender decreased from 0.83 to 0.70 in the past year. (Table 9 and Chart 6). Note that reconviction rates for different lengths of custodial sentences vary considerably which is discussed in the next section of this bulletin.

Extended Sentences are custodial sentences given for sexual crimes, or violent crimes that attract a custodial sentence of four years or more. Extended Sentences have a period of supervision of up to 10 years in the community after the custodial sentence. If offenders breach their licence during the extended part of the sentence, they can be recalled to prison. Reconviction rates for Extended Sentences, like other custodial sentences, are based on the estimated release date from the custodial part of the sentence. We do not have information on the length of the supervision period on our dataset at the moment, just the length of the custodial part of the sentence. The reconviction rates are low compared to other disposals, in part because they are given for more serious crimes that are typically committed less frequently than other crimes.

Reconviction rates for Extended Sentences decreased over the past year, but the average number of reconvictions increased.

Reconviction rates for Extended Sentences decreased between 2018-19 and 2019-20 by 1.2 percentage points from 9.2% to 7.9%. The average number of reconvictions increased by 20% from 0.09 in 2018-19 to 0.11 in 2019-20. Reconvictions have fluctuated from year to year for Extended Sentences, which in part is probably due to the small cohort sizes and low numbers of reconvictions, where a small change would have a greater effect on percentages compared to larger cohorts (Table 9 and Chart 6).

SROs are given for crimes other than sexual crimes and consist of a custodial sentence of one to four years, followed by a period of supervision of up to a year by a social worker. If the offender breaches the order they can be recalled to prison. As with Extended Sentences, we do not have information on the length of the supervision period in our dataset.

Reconvictions decreased for SROs in the past year.

The reconviction rate of SROs decreased by 10.3 percentage points in the past year, from 45.2% in 2018-19 to 34.9% in 2019-20. The average number of reconvictions decreased by 19% from 0.66 to 0.53 in the same period. After in increase in 2018-19, reconvictions in 2019-20 are only slightly less than the years immediately before 2018-19 (Table 9 and Chart 6).

Community sentences: CPOs, DTTOs, RLOs

If an offender fails to comply with a requirement in the order, the court can impose a number of sanctions, including a restricted movement requirement.

CPOs replaced the legacy community orders in 2011. There were still a very small number of legacy community orders in 2018-19 as they were given for offences committed prior to February 2011. During the transition from legacy orders to CPOs from 2010-11 to 2013-14, there were changes in the characteristics of offenders that were given these disposal types. Annex D gives a brief overview of the trends during the transitional period. CPOs are the mostly widely used community sentence, with a cohort size of 8,156 in 2019-20, an increase of 648 from 2018-19.

Reconvictions for CPOs decreased in the past year.

The reconviction rate of CPOs decreased by 4.7 percentage points in the past year, from 29.8% in 2018-19 to 25.1% in 2019-20. The average number of reconvictions decreased by 19% from 0.53 to 0.43 in the same period and are now at the lowest rate since CPOs were introduced (Table 9 and Chart 6).

A Drug Treatment and Testing Order (DTTO) is a high tariff disposal for people with serious drug use problems. It includes the requirement for regular reviews by the court and that the person consents to frequent random drug tests throughout the lifetime of the order.

Offenders given a DTTO have the highest average number of reconvictions per offender and the highest reconviction rate of any disposal.

The high reconvictions are associated with the substance misuse that led to the disposal and should not be interpreted as a particular lack of effectiveness of DTTOs compared to other disposals. The average number of reconvictions per offender decreased by 40% from 1.85 in 2018-19 to 1.12 in 2019-20. The reconviction rate decreased by 8.8 percentage points over the same period from 65.1% to 56.3% (Table 9 and Chart 6).

Over the longer term, average reconvictions and reconviction rates have fluctuated over the decade. Both measures in 2018-19 showed decade-high rates, dropping to an all-time low in 2019-20.

Restriction of Liberty Orders (RLOs) are imposed for periods of up to one year, and involve restricting an individual to a specified place for up to 12 hours per day and/or from a specified place for up to 24 hours.

Reconvictions for RLOs decreased in the past year.

The reconviction rate for RLOs decreased by six percentage points from 35.1% in 2018-19 to 29.1% in 2019-20. The average number of reconvictions decreased from 0.63 to 0.47 in the same period.

Over the longer term, reconvictions are now much lower for RLOs than they used to be, with the average number of reconvictions decreasing by 46% over the past decade from 0.86 in 2010-11 to 0.47 in 2018-19. The reconviction rate has also decreased by 16.1 percentage points in the same period. However, prior to 2019-20, reconvictions have been relatively stable in the past five years, with small year to year fluctuations. RLOs have been more widely used over the past decade, with the size of the cohort increasing from 461 in 2010-10 to an all-time high of 2,089 in 2019-20 (Table 9 and Chart 6).

Monetary and other disposals

Reconvictions for monetary disposals continue to be low.

The reconviction rate of 16.9% for monetary disposals in 2019-20 is a decrease of 4.8 percentage points from 21.7% in 2018-19. The average number of reconvictions decreased by 30% over the same period, from 0.36 to 0.25.

The numbers of offenders with a monetary index conviction has more than halved in the past decade from 18,679 offenders in 2010-11 to 8,938 in 2019-20, continuing the decreasing trend from previous years. This may, in part, reflect the impact of Summary Justice Reform which was designed to take less serious cases out of the court system, and deal with them using non-court disposals (see Section 2). Reconvictions have also fallen for monetary disposals in the past decade, with the average number of reconvictions decreasing by 42% from 0.44 in 2010-11 to 0.25 in 2019-20 (Table 9 and Chart 6).

Reconvictions for Other disposals are similar to monetary disposals.

For Other disposals, which includes admonishments, cautions, and absolute discharges; the reconviction rate decreased by 3.7 percentage points from 21.9% in 2018-19 to 18.2% in 2019-20. The average number of reconvictions per offender decreased by 23% from 0.39 to 0.30 in the same period.

Over time, reconvictions for Other disposals have been similar over the past decade, with year to year fluctuations. The reconviction rate ten years ago was 21.9% in 2010-11 and the average number of was 0.39 (Table 9 and Chart 6).

1.6 Sentence length of custodial index conviction

(Table 10a and Table 10b)

Note that Table 10a, which presents reconviction rates by custodial sentence length, includes Extended Sentences and SROs, whereas they are presented separately from other custodial sentences in Table 9. This is because the numbers of SROs are small in each sentence length category and it is difficult to interpret reconviction rates calculated on small groups. SROs will be in included in the sentence length categories of below four years. The extended sentences are all in the 4 year and over category.

Short custodial sentences have high reconviction rates and long sentences have low reconviction rates due to association with different types of crime. Offenders who commit relatively less serious crimes but in high volumes are more likely to be reconvicted (see Section 1.3), and these offenders are more likely to get short custodial sentences. In contrast, longer custodial sentences are given to offenders who commit more serious crimes, but these offenders tend to commit these crimes in low volumes, and hence fewer are reconvicted. For example, the reconviction rate for custodial sentences of three months or less in 2019-20 was 54.8%, compared to 4.8% for sentences over four years (Table 10a and Chart 10).

Chart 7 shows how different custodial sentence lengths compare with other disposals. Also compare Table 10a to Table 9.

1. Chart 7 shows reconviction rates for each disposal type. The category, Custody, shows reconviction rates for all offenders discharged from a prison or young offender institutions in 2019-20. SROs and Extended Sentences are presented separately from the Custody category. Custodial sentence lengths includes all custodial sentences (prison, young offender institutions, Extended Sentences, and SROs).

All custodial sentence lengths showed a decrease in reconviction rates and average number of reconvictions in the past year (Table 10a).

Over the past year between 2018-19 and 2019-20, decreases in reconviction rates for different lengths of custodial sentences ranged from 6.7 percentage points for sentences of less than three months, to 2.9 percentage points for both over three months to six month and over four years.

Decreases in average number of reconvictions ranged from 9% for over six months to less than a year, to 28% for over four years.

Over the past ten years, reconviction rates for all sentence lengths have fluctuated with no clear trend (Table 10a). However, the average number of reconvictions has decreased for all sentence lengths. Therefore, although a similar percentage are being reconvicted, they are reconvicted less frequently.

Table 10b shows reconviction rates and average number of reconvictions for all custodial sentences of one year or less from 1997-98 to 2019-20. These combine all the one year or less custodial sentence length reconvictions that are presented in Table 10a. This table has been included in response to user need for these figures due to high interest around the extension of the presumption against short sentences from three months or less to one year or less. Note that the extension of the presumption against short sentences came into force on 4^th July 2019 and only applies to offences committed on or after this date. Therefore, this bulletin only contains partial figures for index convictions after the introduction of the extension.

1.7 Conviction history prior to index conviction

(Table 11)

Conviction history is a strong predictor for the likelihood of reconviction, as reconviction rates increase with increasing numbers of previous reconvictions. Offenders with more than 10 previous convictions have the highest reconviction rates, whereas offenders with no previous convictions in the past ten years have the lowest reconviction rates. This pattern holds true even when age, sex, or disposal (all of which have an association with the likelihood of reconviction) are taken into account (Table 11).

1.8 Two-year rates

(Table 14)

Reconviction rates in Scotland were reported with a two-year follow-up period before the 2009-10 cohort bulletin. After this point, the focus has been on a follow-up period of one year rather than two years as, in general, the one-year rate tracks the two-year rate, and has the benefit of being more timely.

Using the two-year follow up period there has been a decrease in the reconviction rate every year from 2009-10 onwards (Table 14). For two-year rates in this bulletin, we observe the 2018-19 cohort, where reconviction numbers will only be affected by the pandemic after March 2020. Between 2017-18 and 2018-19, the reconviction rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points from 37.0% to 36.9%. During the same period, the average number of reconvictions also slightly decreased, from 0.87 to 0.85. Over 10 years from 2009-10 to 2018-19, the two-year average number of reconvictions per offender has fallen by 17% from 1.03 to 0.85, and the reconviction rate saw a 4.6 percentage point reduction from 41.5% to 36.9%.

These long term declining trends mirror those seen for the one-year follow up period (Table 1) but as there is a longer follow-up period, the associated values are typically greater, for instance:

• In 2018-19, the two-year reconviction rate was 8.3 percentage points higher than the one-year reconviction rate for 2017-18 (36.9% for the two year compared to 28.6% for the one-year rate).
• The average number reconvictions per offender is 0.85 over two years for the 2017-18 cohort, compared to 0.51 over one year.