Recorded crime in Scotland: 2016-2017

4. Clear up rates

This chapter presents statistics on recorded crime Clear up rates in Scotland during 2016-17. Whereas the rest of this bulletin presents recorded crime statistics that have been produced as National Statistics (following the UKSA's decision to re-designate this information as National Statistics in September 2016) – these clear up rate statistics remain published as Official Statistics. This is the same designation as was used to publish this information for the 2013-14, 2014-15 and 2015-16 reporting years.

The UKSA will re-visit the statistical designation of this information once HMICS have carried out an audit of this data and the Scottish Crime Recording Board has considered any implications for the quality of these data. HMICS propose to scope out an audit of clear-up data and pilot an audit methodology in early 2018, with a view to providing the public and other stakeholders with assurance about the reliability of clear up rates. Statisticians will keep users informed of progress with this audit and further developments beyond this (through the Scotstat network).

The definition of "cleared up" is noted below. This definition came into force with effect from 1 April 1996.

A crime or offence is regarded as cleared up where there exists a sufficiency of evidence under Scots law, to justify consideration of criminal proceedings notwithstanding that a report is not submitted to the procurator fiscal because either:
(i) by standing agreement with the procurator fiscal, the police warn the accused due to the minor nature of the offence, or
(ii) reporting is inappropriate due to the non-age of the accused, death of the accused or other similar circumstances.

For some types of crime or offence the case is cleared up immediately because the offender is "caught in the act", e.g. motor vehicle offences. In Scots law, the confession of an accused person to a crime would not in general be sufficient to allow a prosecution to be taken, as corroborative evidence is required. Thus, a case cannot be regarded as "cleared up" on the basis of a confession alone. In some cases there is sufficient evidence but a prosecution cannot be brought, for example, because the accused has left the country. In such cases, the offender is said to have been traced and the crime is regarded as cleared up. The other terms in the definition describe the various actions that must be taken by the police against offenders.

Clear up rates are calculated as follows:

number of crimes cleared up in year y x 100
total number of crimes recorded in year y 1

Clear up rates presented are rounded to one decimal place.

Crimes or offences recorded by the police as cleared up in one financial year, year y, may have been committed and therefore recorded in a previous year, i.e. year y-1. This means that the number of crimes or offences cleared up are being expressed as a percentage of a different set of crimes or offences. This means that clear up rates in excess of 100% can arise in a given year.

As the number of crimes cleared up in a year may include crimes recorded in a previous year, this is not a perfect measure of crimes cleared up, particularly since this method can result in clear up rates of over 100%. The best method would be to take the number of crimes recorded and the subset of those which have been cleared up by the police. However due to the aggregate way in which the data is currently obtained, it is not possible to do this at present. Going forward, we will investigate any improvement that could be made to the measurement of clear up rates, and will consult with users on any possible change.

Clear up rates for the Motor vehicle offences group are not included in the bulletin since many of these crimes are offences for which the offender is 'caught in the act'.

A new system of recorded warnings – known as the Recorded Police Warning ( RPW) scheme, was introduced by Police Scotland on the 11 January 2016. The scheme allows police officers to make greater use of their discretion when dealing with minor crimes and offences, and replaces the Formal Adult Warning system. This scheme has been in operation for the full year of 2016-17, and so some crimes and offences in this bulletin (as with the previous bulletin) will have been dealt with by a RPW.

This new scheme should not impact on clear up rate statistics as a RPW can only be issued where there is sufficient evidence to report a matter to the Crown (and hence meet the criteria for a 'cleared-up' crime or offence). There is no evidence of any impact of RPWs on clear-up rate statistics. The Scottish Crime Recording Board ( SCRB) will continue to monitor developments in this area to ensure this remains the case.

Total recorded crime

The clear up rate for total recorded crimes decreased by 1.6 percentage points from 51.6% in 2015-16 to 50.0% in 2016-17. This clear up rate is the lowest since 2011-12, however this follows a generally upward trend since 1976, the first year for which comparable clear up rates are available, as shown by Chart 18 below ( Table 1).

There now follows an analysis of clear up rates by crime group at both Scotland and local authority levels. It should be noted that some local authority areas have comparatively low levels of recorded crime, and so clear up rates that are based on small numbers should be treated with caution. Rates of over 100% can occur when crimes are cleared up in a different reporting period to the year in which they were recorded.

Non-sexual crimes of violence:

The clear up rate for Non-sexual crimes of violence decreased by 4.9 percentage points from 82.0% in 2015-16 to 77.1% in 2016-17. This clear up rate is the lowest since 2011-12, however this follows a generally upward trend since 1976, the first year for which comparable clear up rates are available. The clear up rate for Group 1 crimes ranged from 145.5% in the Shetland Islands to 65.8% in the City of Edinburgh.

Clear up rates decreased in all categories for Non-Sexual crimes of violence between 2015-16 and 2016-17. The largest decreases were seen in Other violence, which dropped by 5.9 percentage points from 77.6% to 71.7%, and Attempted murder and serious assault, which fell by 5.8 percentage points from 84.4% to 78.6%. Homicide etc. and Robbery decreased by 2.2 percentage points and 2.1 percentage points respectively.

Chart 18: Clear up rates for crimes recorded by the police by crime group, 1976 ¹ to 1994 then 1995-96 to 2016-17

1. Comparable clear up rates for the present crime groups are not available prior to 1976.

Sexual crimes:

The clear up rate for Sexual crimes decreased by 11.8 percentage points in 2016-17, from 74.1% to 62.3%. Although the clear up rate for Group 2 crimes followed a generally upward trend in recent years, the clear up rate for 2016-17 is the lowest since 1981. Clear up rates ranged from 77.5% in Stirling to 48.2% in East Dunbartonshire.

Clear up rates decreased in all categories of Sexual crimes between 2015-16 and 2016-17. The rate for Rape and attempted rape fell by 16.7 percentage points from 76.3% in 2015-16 to 59.6% in 2016-17, while Sexual assault fell by 13.4 percentage points from 70% to 57.4% over the same period. The rate for Other sexual crimes and Crimes associated with prostitution fell by 8.8 percentage points and 4.3 percentage points respectively.

Crimes of dishonesty:

The clear up rate for Crimes of dishonesty decreased by 1.3 percentage points in 2016-17, from 38.0% to 36.7%. Despite slight fluctuation year to year, this clear up rate has remained relatively stable since 2007-08. The clear up rate for Crimes of dishonesty ranged from 64.8% in the Shetland Islands to 25.8% in the City of Edinburgh.

Clear up rates decreased in all categories of this crime group between 2015-16 and 2016-17.

Fire-raising, vandalism etc.:

The clear up rate for Fire-raising, vandalism etc. increased by 0.8 percentage points in 2016-17, from 24.3% to 25.1%. Crimes of Fire-raising, vandalism etc. consistently have the lowest clear up rate of the five crime groups. The 2016-17 clear up rate for Fire-raising, vandalism etc. ranged from 52.1% in the Orkney Islands to 13.5% in East Renfrewshire.

The clear up rate for Fire-raising decreased by 2.5 percentage points between 2015-16 and 2016-17, while the rate for Vandalism etc. increased by 0.9 percentage points over the same period.

Other crimes:

Clear up rates for Other crimes are generally close to 100% since these consist of many crimes for which someone is 'caught in the act'. The clear up rate for Other crimes decreased by 0.7 percentage points in 2016-17 from 96.0% to 95.3%, the lowest level in the ten year period from 2007-08 to 2016-17. The clear up rate for Group 5 crimes ranged from 116.8% in the Shetland Islands to 88.8% in Dundee City.

The clear up rate for Handling offensive weapons increased slightly by 0.2 percentage points from 96.5% in 2015-16 to 96.7% in 2016-17, while all other categories saw a decrease of less than 1 percentage point over the same period.

Table 1: Percentage of crimes / offences cleared up ¹ by the police, Scotland, 2007-08 to 2016-17 ²

Percentage
Crime / Offence group	2007-08	2008-09	2009-10	2010-11	2011-12	2012-13	2013-14	2014-15	2015-16	2016-17
Total crimes	47.9	48.9	49.3	48.6	49.4	51.3	51.5	50.4	51.6	50.0
Non-sexual crimes of violence	61.5	63.9	67.0	71.6	75.4	78.5	81.5	83.7	82.0	77.1
Homicide etc. 3 (incl. causing death by driving)	99.3	100.0	105.7	99.2	96.7	104.4	101.9	107.6	101.2	99.0
Attempted murder & serious assault 4	60.7	61.6	65.7	69.9	73.9	77.8	81.5	83.3	84.4	78.6
Robbery	40.3	46.2	46.4	54.8	61.6	65.9	71.8	77.2	78.3	76.2
Other violence	83.6	84.5	85.2	86.6	89.8	90.5	88.4	89.5	77.6	71.7
Sexual crimes 5	71.5	68.1	65.6	66.4	67.5	68.0	75.6	76.5	74.1	62.3
Rape & attempted rape	69.9	61.4	56.8	54.9	56.9	61.8	73.0	74.2	76.3	59.6
Sexual assault	68.0	64.8	61.5	63.8	62.3	61.8	70.6	76.6	70.8	57.4
Crimes associated with prostitution	98.2	99.3	96.5	97.0	95.9	95.9	96.7	97.3	96.4	92.1
Other sexual crimes	68.1	62.9	67.3	68.6	72.2	72.7	79.4	75.5	74.9	66.1
Crimes of dishonesty	37.7	38.9	38.3	37.0	37.2	38.1	37.4	35.8	38.0	36.7
Housebreaking 6	25.7	24.2	24.9	24.5	24.5	24.8	23.2	25.0	26.7	22.5
Theft by opening a lockfast place ( OLP)	32.3	37.7	30.7	22.6	21.7	19.5	16.8	15.2	21.2	17.5
Theft from a motor vehicle by OLP	15.2	16.6	17.3	17.2	17.2	20.1	16.2	15.1	19.3	16.5
Theft of a motor vehicle	43.7	43.4	43.9	43.3	45.2	47.6	43.1	39.3	41.8	39.9
Shoplifting	77.5	77.8	78.7	78.5	78.7	79.7	78.8	74.6	72.9	71.6
Other theft	20.9	21.4	21.0	20.0	20.6	21.0	20.5	18.6	19.9	19.3
Fraud	74.3	74.6	57.3	57.2	55.3	52.2	55.8	50.6	44.7	39.9
Other dishonesty	81.9	78.6	73.4	74.3	73.9	72.1	71.1	66.6	62.1	60.3
Fire-raising, vandalism etc.	24.6	25.0	25.6	25.0	25.4	27.0	25.1	22.8	24.3	25.1
Fire-raising	25.4	24.4	23.6	21.9	23.9	25.9	27.2	25.1	28.2	25.7
Vandalism etc.	24.6	25.0	25.7	25.2	25.5	27.0	25.0	22.7	24.1	25.0
Other crimes	98.4	98.1	98.1	98.3	98.4	97.9	98.4	96.5	96.0	95.3
Crimes against public justice	98.0	97.5	97.3	97.6	97.6	97.6	98.0	97.5	97.5	96.7
Handling offensive weapons	95.9	95.7	96.5	96.2	97.3	97.0	97.8	96.6	96.5	96.7
Drugs	99.4	99.1	99.0	99.4	99.2	98.2	98.8	95.9	95.1	94.4
Other	89.3	89.5	89.9	88.7	90.6	94.6	97.7	95.1	97.0	96.2
Miscellaneous offences 7		82.6	83.0	82.0	83.9	85.5	87.5	86.3	84.3	80.2
Common assault 4	70.8	69.7	69.7	69.9	71.4	72.6	75.9	76.2	75.9	70.8
Breach of the peace etc. 8	87.9	86.7	85.8	84.3	86.8	87.8	89.2	87.8	86.5	84.8
Drunkenness and other disorderly conduct 7		99.9	99.9	99.9	99.8	99.9	99.9	99.8	99.8	99.6
Urinating etc.	99.7	99.7	99.8	99.7	99.7	99.8	100.0	99.8	99.7	99.6
Other 7		75.3	73.6	70.6	75.5	76.0	78.9	76.9	74.9	72.1

Please see Notes for Tables at end of Chapter 5.