Recorded crime in Scotland: attempted murder and serious assault, 2008-2009 and 2017-2018

5. Conclusion

This study into the characteristics of police recorded serious assault focused on the years of 2008-09 and 2017-18, the time between which saw the number of serious assaults in Scotland decrease by 35% or 2,283 crimes (from 6,472 to 4,189).

The vast majority (89%) of the total fall in police recorded serious assault between 2008-09 and 2017-18 was due to fewer cases in the west of Scotland (centred in and around the city of Glasgow).

All of the fall in serious assault across Scotland came from fewer cases with a male victim, with little change in the number of cases with a female victim. Although the reduction in male victims has driven the total fall in serious assault since 2008-09, they still accounted for 80% of victims in 2017-18.

Most (80%) of the fall in serious assault came from fewer cases where the perpetrator used a weapon, with the study finding that a serious assault in 2017-18 was less likely to involve a weapon than in 2008-09 (dropping from 63% to 55%).

Despite the reduction in the volume of serious assaults committed in Scotland over the past ten years, there has been no significant change in the proportion of these crimes that occur in a public setting or a private setting during this time – with most still occurring in a public setting.

The average age of both a victim and perpetrator of serious assault in 2017-18 was several years older than their counterparts from 2008-09. This reflected a particularly large fall in the estimated rate of victimisation for people in their twenties and offending rates for teenagers (aged 13 to 19 years) and people in their twenties.

Nearly two-thirds (63%) of serious assault committed in 2017-18 included a reference to the consumption of alcohol. This may somewhat underestimate the true position as police officers may not always receive enough information to identify the consumption of alcohol prior to any incident.

Overall this research suggests that fewer cases of males attacking other males in the west of Scotland, often involving relatively younger people (teenagers and those in their twenties) and the use of a weapon – have contributed the most to the reduction in serious assault over the past ten years.

Whist the police in Scotland now face fewer reports of serious assault today than a decade ago, the characteristics of these crimes are now a little less homogenous than before – with relatively fewer cases concentrated in the west of Scotland, or only involving relatively younger males. It remains the case that the use of knives or other blades is much more prevalent in the west of Scotland than elsewhere, and a majority of all serious assault committed in Scotland involved the consumption of alcohol prior to the incident.