Recorded crime in Scotland: robbery 2008-2009 and 2017-2018

4. Findings

As noted earlier, this report presents information on a sample of robberies recorded by the police. It does not provide information on the characteristics of all robbery committed in society, since not all of these crimes are reported to the police.

Findings are presented for the two years sampled by the research; 2008-09 and 2017-18. Characteristics of robbery are shown as both the proportion of all robberies recorded by the police (for example the percentage that includes a weapon) and what this suggests the volume of robbery could be for that characteristic (again as an example, the estimated number of robberies that include a weapon).

When interpreting the report’s findings, it is important that both these measures ( proportion of all robberies and suggested volume of robbery ) are considered in tandem - as the number of robberies recorded by the police in Scotland almost halved between 2008-09 and 2017-18 (falling from 2,963 to 1,556). As such there are some characteristics which were more prevalent in police recorded robberies during 2017-18 than 2008-09 (i.e. they made up a greater proportion of robbery than 10 years ago), however they are still estimated to be less voluminous than in 2008-09, as the total volume of robbery has fallen so significantly.

Where relevant we have drawn readers’ attention to where there has been notable change in a particular characteristic of police recorded robbery between 2008-09 and 2017-18.

Where do robberies occur?

Over half of robbery (55%) occurred in the street or open space in 2017-18 ( Table 4). This has fallen from 75% of robbery in 2008-09. At the same time the proportion of robbery that occurred in a dwelling (either within a private property or the communal area of a residential building) increased from 14% to 29%. A retail or other business setting accounted for the remaining 16% of robbery in 2017-18.

Robbery in the street or open space is estimated to have fallen by 1,370 between 2008-09 and 2017-18 (from 2,230 to 860). At the same time the volume of robbery estimated to have occurred in a dwelling remained relatively unchanged, increasing from 410 to 450. An estimated 250 robberies in 2017-18 occurred in a retail or other business setting.

This suggests that almost all of the total fall in police recorded robbery between 2008-09 and 2017-18 (down 1,407) has come from a fall in street or open space-based robbery.

The location of a robbery was also split into a public or private space. Robberies within a person’s property (i.e. behind a front-door) have been defined in the research as ‘private space’ robbery, with all other settings (including the communal areas of a residential building) defined as ‘public space’ robbery.

Almost three-quarters of robbery (73%) occurred in a public space in 2017-18. This has fallen from 88% of robbery in 2008-09. At the same time the proportion of robbery that occurred in a private space increased from 12% to 27%.

Robbery in a public space is estimated to have fallen by 1,470 between 2008-09 and 2017-18 (from 2,610 to 1,140). At the same time the volume of robbery estimated to have occurred in a private space increased slightly from 360 to 420.

The location of robbery is skewed towards areas of higher deprivation, with Scotland’s 20% most deprived areas accounting for 35% of robbery in 2017-18 ( Table 5). At least 84% of robberies in 2017-18 occurred in urban areas, compared to the 70% of Scotland’s population that lives in those areas. Relatively few robberies occur in a rural or small town setting (at least 8% in 2017-18, compared to the 30% of Scotland’s population that lives in those areas).

Who are the victims of robbery?

The vast majority of robbery had a single victim in 2017-18 (97%). The remaining 3% of robbery relates to where a perpetrator has robbed a business and more than one person has experienced the violence used to do this – for example where someone points a knife at two members of staff and demands they empty a shop till.

As robbery with multiple victims accounts for such a small proportion of all robbery, if the victims are all of the same gender they are included within the general headings presented below (i.e. if all victims are male they are included as robbery with a male victim).

Most robbery (60%) had a male victim in 2017-18 ( Table 6). This has fallen from 71% in 2008-09. At the same time the proportion of robbery with a female victim increased from 27% to 38%. A small proportion of robbery (2% in 2017-18) had a mixed gender group of victims or gender was unknown.

Robbery with a male victim is estimated to have fallen by 1,170 between 2008-09 and 2017-18, from 2,100 to 930. At the same time the volume of robbery estimated to have a female victim fell by a lesser degree, from 800 to 590.

This suggests that around 83% of the total fall in police recorded robbery between 2008-09 and 2017-18 (down 1,407) has come from a fall in robbery with a male victim.

Victims of robbery in 2017-18 were older than victims from 2008-09, with the median age of a robbery victim increasing from 29 years old to 35 years old
( Table 7).

The proportion of robbery with at least one teenage victim (i.e. those aged 13 to 19 years old) fell from around one in five (20%) in 2008-09 to one in ten (10%) in 2017-18. At the same time the proportion of robbery with a victim aged 20 to 29 years old also fell, from around one-third (33%) to one quarter (24%). There was an increase in the proportion of robbery with a victim aged 30 to 39 years old, and 40 years & above, from 17% to 24% and 30% to 39% respectively.

The volume of robbery experienced by each of the four age groups described above is estimated to have fallen between 2008-09 and 2017-18. This fall was larger for teenagers (down from 590 robberies with at least one teenage victim to 150) and those aged 20 to 29 years old (down from 980 to 370) than those aged 30 to 39 years old (down from 500 to 370) and those aged 40 & above (down from 890 to 600).

This suggests that the fall in robbery which included at least one teenage victim or one victim aged 20 to 29 years old, has contributed significantly to the reduction in total recorded robbery between 2008-09 and 2017-18.

Table 1 below shows the age of robbery victims compared to Scotland’s population as a whole. The estimated number of victims for each age group reflects the number of times a victim of that age was identified in the sample, grossed up to the total number of robberies recorded by the police. Those robberies that involved more than one victim with a known age are included multiple times in the table. This analysis should be seen as providing a broad indication of robbery victimisation by age, rather than an exact measure - as it is based on a sample of robbery rather than all robberies recorded by the police. Furthermore it doesn’t account for any repeat victimisation that may be faced by certain individuals, where they have been a victim of multiple robberies during the reporting year.

The table suggests that there were an estimated 6.0 victims of police recorded robbery per 10,000 population in 2008-09. This figure was far higher for teenagers and people aged 20 to 29 years old, at 13.7 and 14.8 victims per 10,000 population respectively. Those aged 30 to 39 years old had a slightly higher rate (7.6 victims per 10,000 population) whilst those aged under 13 years or 40 years and above had a lower than average rate (0.5 and 3.5 victims per 10,000 population respectively).

The estimated number of robbery victims per 10,000 population had fallen to 2.9 by 2017-18. With the exception of those aged under 13 years (for which robbery remains very rare with less than one victim per 10,000 population), the rate of robbery victimisation has decreased for all age groups. This fall has been particularly large for teenagers (down from 13.7 victims per 10,000 population in 2008-09 to 3.9 victims per 10,000 population in 2017-18) and those aged 20 to 29 years old (down from 14.8 to 5.2). Those aged 30 to 39 years old now have the highest estimated rate of robbery victimisation, with 5.5 victims per 10,000 population – slightly ahead of those aged 20 to 29 years old.

Table 1: Age of Robbery Victims compared to population, 2008-09 and 2017-18.

Age Group	2008-09		2017-18
	Estimated Number of Robbery Victims	Victims per 10,000 Population	Estimated Number of Robbery Victims	Victims per 10,000 Population
Under 13 years	40	0.5	50	0.7
Aged 13 to 19 years	620	13.7	160	3.9
Aged 20 to 29 years	1,010	14.8	380	5.2
Aged 30 to 39 years	520	7.6	380	5.5
Aged 40 and above	920	3.5	610	2.2
All Ages	3,110	6.0	1,590	2.9

Source: Mid-Year Population Estimates, 2008 & 2017 (National Records Scotland) ^[4]

Who are the perpetrators of robbery?

A crime of robbery can be committed by a single perpetrator or multiple perpetrators. Over half (58%) of robbery in 2017-18 had a single perpetrator, the other 42% had at least two perpetrators.

Around five out of every six robberies (82%) had a male or all male group of perpetrators in 2017-18 ( Table 8). This has fallen from 88% in 2008-09. Only 6% of robbery in 2017-18 had a female or all female group of perpetrators, whilst the remaining 12% had a mixed gender group or a perpetrator of unknown gender.

Robbery with a male or all male group of perpetrators is estimated to have fallen by 1,340 between 2008-09 and 2017-18, from 2,610 to 1,270. This fall accounts for almost all of the total reduction in police recorded robbery between those two years.

Like the victims of robbery, perpetrators of robbery were also older in 2017-18 than perpetrators from 2008-09 - with the median age of a robbery perpetrator increasing from 23 years old to 28 years old ( Table 9).

The proportion of robbery involving at least one perpetrator aged 20 to 29 years old fell from 43% in 2008-09 to 32% by 2017-18. At the same time the proportion involving at least one perpetrator aged 30 to 39 years old increased from 21% to 32%. The proportion of robbery involving at least one perpetrator aged 40 & above increased from 7% to 14%. Around one in five robberies (19%) involved at least one teenage perpetrator in 2017-18.

Robbery that involved at least one perpetrator aged 20 to 29 years old is estimated to have fallen from 1,260 in 2008-09 to 500 by 2017-18. A smaller fall was estimated in the volume of robbery involving at least one teenage perpetrator (from 720 to 290) or one perpetrator aged 30 to 39 years old (from 630 to 500). The number of robberies estimated to involve at least one perpetrator aged 40 & above remained relatively unchanged, increasing from 210 to 230. It should be noted that a single crime of robbery will appear more than once in the above estimates if it includes perpetrators from more than one age group (for example a victim is robbed simultaneously by two perpetrators aged 17 and 21 years old).

As with victims of robbery, this suggests that the fall in robbery including at least one teenage perpetrator or one perpetrator aged 20 to 29 years old, has driven the reduction in total recorded robbery between 2008-09 and 2017-18.

Table 2 below shows the age of robbery perpetrators compared to Scotland’s population as a whole. The estimated number of perpetrators for each age group reflects the number of times a perpetrator of that age was identified in the sample, grossed up to the total number of robberies recorded by the police. Those robberies that involved more than one perpetrator with a known age are included multiple times in the table. This analysis should be seen as providing a broad indication of offending by age, rather than an exact measure - as it is based on a sample of robbery rather than all robberies recorded by the police. Furthermore it doesn’t account for any repeat offending that may have been carried out by certain individuals, where they have committed multiple robberies in a reporting year nor does it include any perpetrator where no age or estimated age was available from the crime record.

The table suggests that there were an estimated 7.5 perpetrators of police recorded robbery per 10,000 population in 2008-09. This figure was far higher for teenagers and people aged 20 to 29 years old, at 24.3 and 26.1 victims per 10,000 population respectively. Those aged 30 to 39 years old had a slightly higher rate (11.2 perpetrators per 10,000 population) whilst those aged under 13 years or 40 years and above had a far lower than average rate (0.6 and 0.8 perpetrators per 10,000 population respectively).

The estimated number of robbery perpetrators per 10,000 population had fallen to 3.8 by 2017-18. With the exception of those aged 40 and above (for which the committing of a robbery remains very rare, with one perpetrator per 10,000 population), the rate of offending has decreased for all age groups. This fall has been particularly large for teenagers (down from 24.3 perpetrators per 10,000 population in 2008-09 to 11.5 perpetrators per 10,000 population in 2017-18) and those aged 20 to 29 years old (down from 26.1 to 9.0). Those aged 30 to 39 years old had a smaller reduction, down from 11.2 perpetrators per 10,000 population in 2008-09 to 9.0 perpetrators per 10,000 population by 2017-18.

Table 2: Age of Robbery Perpetrators compared to population, 2008-09 and 2017-18

Age Group	2008-09		2017-18
	Estimated Number of Robbery Perpetrators	Perpetrators per 10,000 Population	Estimated Number of Robbery Perpetrators	Perpetrators per 10,000 Population
Under 13 years	40	0.6	30	0.4
Aged 13 to 19 years	1,100	24.3	460	11.5
Aged 20 to 29 years	1,780	26.1	670	9.0
Aged 30 to 39 years	760	11.2	630	9.0
Aged 40 and above	230	0.8	280	1.0
All Ages	3,900	7.5	2,060	3.8

Source: Mid-year Population Estimates, 2008 & 2017 (National Records Scotland) ^[5]

Relationship between victims and perpetrators of robbery

Around half of robbery (51%) had both a male victim and a male or all-male group of perpetrators in 2017-18 ( Table 10). This has fallen from almost two-thirds (65%) of robbery in 2008-09. At the same time the proportion of robbery with a female victim and a male or all-male group of perpetrators increased from 22% to 29%. There was also an increase in the proportion of robbery with a mixed-gender group of either victims or (more often) perpetrators, from 8% to 13%. Robbery between females or with a male victim and a female or all female group of perpetrators was relatively rare in 2017-18 (less than 5% in each case).

Robbery that involved all male victims and perpetrators is estimated to have fallen by 1,120 between 2008-09 and 2017-18 (from 1,920 to 800). This accounts for a substantial proportion (around 80%) of the total fall in police recorded robbery during this time. Over the same period, a smaller fall was estimated in the volume of robbery with a female victim and male perpetrator(s), from 650 to 450.

Most robberies (63%) were committed by strangers in 2017-18 (i.e. someone not known to the victim) ( Table 11). This has fallen from 76% of robbery in 2008-09.
At the same time the proportion of robbery committed by an acquaintance of the victim increased from 16% to 24%, whilst the proportion committed by a partner/
ex-partner or relative of the victim increased from 2% to 11%.

Robbery that involved a stranger is estimated to have fallen by 1,250 between 2008-09 and 2017-18 (from 2,240 to 990). This accounts for the vast majority (almost 90%) of the total fall in police recorded robbery during this time. Over the same period, a far smaller fall was estimated in the volume of robbery by an acquaintance of the victim (from 460 to 370) and a small increase was estimated in the volume of robbery by a partner/ex-partner or relative of the victim (from 70 to 170).

Other characteristics of robbery

Around half of robbery (51%) involved the use of a weapon in 2017-18 ( Table 12). The remaining robberies were committed without a weapon (49%). Robbery with a weapon includes cases where the weapon hasn’t been seen by the victim, but the perpetrator has referred to its potential use as part of a threat of violence.

Just over a third of robbery (35%) involved the use of a knife or other bladed/pointed article in 2017-18. This has fallen from 43% of robbery in 2008-09. Industrial or household tools (for example a hammer) and firearms/imitation firearms accounted for 4% and 2% of robbery respectively in 2017-18. One case out of the 450 sampled from 2017-18 involved the perpetrator threatening to use a corrosive substance.

Robbery that involved the use of a weapon is estimated to have fallen by 910 between 2008-09 and 2017-18 (from 1,700 to 780). Robbery without a weapon is estimated to have fallen by 500 from 1,260 to 760. This suggests the fall in robbery with a weapon had a bigger impact on the total reduction in recorded robbery than the fall in robbery without a weapon.

Most robbery (60%) didn’t include any reported physical injuries being sustained by the victim in 2017-18 ( Table 13. Crimes of Robbery by Physical Injury sustained by Victim3

Sample Year	Percentage of Robberies 1	Estimated Volume of Robbery 2	Number Sampled
2008-09
No Physical Injuries reported	67%	1,990	336
Common Assault level Injury	27%	800	135
Serious Assault level Injury	6%	180	30
Unknown	-	-	0
No Physical Injuries reported	67%	1,990	336
Physical Injuries reported	33%	980	165
Unknown	-	-	0
All Recorded Robbery	100%	2,963	501
2017-18
No Physical Injuries reported	60%	930	268
Common Assault level Injury	32%	500	145
Serious Assault level Injury	8%	120	36
Unknown	*	*	1
No Physical Injuries reported	60%	930	268
Physical Injuries reported	40%	630	181
Unknown	*	*	1
All Recorded Robbery	100%	1,556	450
Change between 2008-09 and 2017-18
No Physical Injuries reported	No Change	-1,060
Common Assault level Injury	No Change	-300
Serious Assault level Injury	No Change	-60
Unknown	*	*
No Physical Injuries reported	No Change	-1,060
Physical Injuries reported	No Change	-350
Unknown	*	*
All Recorded Robbery	n/a	-1,407

1. Percentages may not sum to 100% due to rounding

2. All estimated volumes of Robbery are rounded to the nearest 10

3. Where a victim sustained multiple physical injuries (or there was more than one injured victim during the robbery), the most serious injury has been used to classify the case in the table

). This is where either no attempt was made by the perpetrator to cause a physical injury (i.e. the violence used during the robbery was threat-based only or any contact /attempted contact resulted in no identifiable physical injuries). Around a third of robbery (32%) included a common-assault level injury, most often one of or a combination of scratches, lacerations, bruising or swelling. Robbery that resulted in a serious-assault level injury (for example a stab wound or other permanent disfigurement, broken bones or fractures etc.) were relatively rare in 2017-18, accounting for 8% of all cases.

Robbery that didn’t include any reported physical injuries being sustained by the victim is estimated to have fallen by 1,060 between 2008-09 and 2017-18 (from 1,990 to 930). This accounts for around three-quarters (75%) of the total fall in recorded robbery during this time.

Over three-quarters of robbery (78%) in 2017-18 was reported to the police by the victim, or someone acting on the victim’s behalf (for example a guardian)
( Table 14). Reports by witnesses (either to the robbery itself, or the aftermath – such as an injured/distressed victim or a perpetrator running from the scene) accounted for 17% of all robbery. Very few robberies come to the police’s attention due to observations whilst on patrol or as a result of investigating another crime, offence or incident (2% of all robbery in 2017-18).

Victim (or someone acting on behalf of the victim) reported robbery is estimated to have fallen by 1,280 between 2008-09 and 2017-18 (from 2,500 to 1,220). This accounts for the vast majority (over 90%) of the total fall in recorded robbery during this time.

Just over two-fifths of robbery (42%) in 2017-18 involved cash (i.e. notes and (or) coins) being taken from the victim ( Table 15). This has fallen from 53% of all robbery in 2008-09. The average (median) amount of cash stolen increased from £55 in 2008-09 to £70 in 2017-18 (however when adjusted for inflation this suggests no change in real terms between these two years in the amount of cash stolen). Just over a quarter of robbery (27%) in 2017-18 involved the victim’s mobile phone being stolen. The next most common items to be stolen during a robbery included alcohol and (or) cigarettes (7% in 2017-18, up from 2% in 2008-09),non-mobile electronics (6%), jewellery (5%) and cars, scooters or bikes (4%). It should be noted that a single crime of robbery will be included more than once in the above estimates if more than one type of item was stolen from the victim.

Just over a quarter of robbery (26%) in 2017-18 involved no items being taken from the victim (i.e. these were attempted robberies where the victim’s property wasn’t appropriated by the perpetrator, even for a short period of time). This has increased from 19% of all robbery in 2008-09.

Robbery where a quantity of cash was taken from the victim (either as the sole item stolen or with other item types) is estimated to have fallen by 930 between 2008-09 and 2017-18 (from 1,580 to 650). This accounts for two-thirds (66%) of the total fall in recorded robbery during this time.

A number of records made reference to the consumption of alcohol and/or drugs. This could be in reference to the perpetrator(s), the victim(s) or both. This doesn’t necessarily mean that it was a casual factor in all of these crimes. At the same time alcohol or drugs may have been consumed prior to some of these crimes taking place, but not referenced in the crime record.

In 2017-18, almost a third (31%) of robbery crime records made reference to the consumption of alcohol. Around one in five records (21%) made reference to the consumption of drugs.

Records also include information on the time robberies occur (time of day and day of week). In 2017-18, 35% of robbery occurred between 6pm and midnight, 35% occurred between midnight and midday and 30% occurred between midday and 6pm. In 2017-18, 69% of robbery occurred on a weekday and 31% at the weekend i.e. Saturday and Sunday

What types of robbery fell the most between 2008-09 and 2017-18?

Some of the measures discussed above can be combined - to present a picture of how likely it is that a police recorded robbery will comprise of a certain scenario. This approach has been used to describe the different types of robbery faced by the police in Scotland, both in 2008-09 and 2017-18. From this, an estimate can then be made of which types of robbery have contributed the most to the total fall in these crimes over the past ten years.

Four variables (or characteristics) have been combined to produce sixteen different scenarios for a robbery. These are (i) the victim’s gender, (ii) where the robbery took place, (iii) the victim’s relationship to the perpetrator and (iv) whether the perpetrator used a weapon ( Table 16).

This analysis suggests that there are four different scenarios for robbery that collectively account for the vast majority (87%) of the total fall in robbery between 2008-09 and 2017-18. These four scenarios all involve a victim being robbed in a public space by someone they didn’t know (i.e. a stranger or a group of strangers).

Table 3 below provides further information on the four scenarios.

The first scenario was the most common type of robbery in both 2008-09 and 2017-18, whereby a male victim was robbed in a public space by someone they didn’t know, who used a weapon. This scenario accounted for around a third of robbery in 2008-09 (32%), dropping to around a fifth (21%) by 2017-18. This suggests these types of robbery have fallen by 620 (from 950 to 330), which would account for 44% of the total fall in recorded robbery between the two years sampled.

The second scenario was the second most common type of robbery in both 2008-09 and 2017-18, whereby a male victim was robbed in a public space by someone they didn’t know, who didn’t use a weapon. This accounted for 15% of robbery in 2017-18, with the volume of these cases estimated to have dropped by 290 since 2008-09 (from 530 to 240). This would account for around a fifth (21%) of the total fall in recorded robbery between the two years sampled – suggesting that both scenarios one and two combined (males being robbed by strangers in public spaces) collectively account for around two-thirds (65%) of the total fall in recorded robbery.

The third scenario was where a female victim was robbed in a public space by someone they didn’t know, who used a weapon. This accounted for 7% of robbery in 2017-18, with the volume of these cases estimated to have dropped by 160 since 2008-09 (from 270 to 110). This would account for a further 11% of the total fall in recorded robbery between the two years sampled.

The fourth scenario was where a female victim was robbed in a public space by someone they didn’t know, who didn’t use a weapon. This accounted for 12% of robbery in 2017-18, with the volume of these cases estimated to have dropped by 150 since 2008-09 (from 330 to 180). This would account for 10% of the total fall in recorded robbery between the two years sampled – suggesting that both scenarios three and four combined (females being robbed by strangers in public spaces) collectively account for around a fifth (21%) of the total fall in recorded robbery.

Taken as a whole, the remaining twelve scenarios for robbery had very little impact on the total reduction in these crimes between 2008-09 and 2017-18. This includes all scenarios where a victim was robbed in a private space and all scenarios where a victim was robbed by someone they knew.

There was also limited change in the estimated volume of robberies recorded by the police for each of the remaining twelve scenarios between 2008-09 and 2017-18. The only scenario that showed a notable increase in the estimated volume of robberies recorded by the police during this time was where a female victim was robbed in a private space by someone they knew, who didn’t use a weapon. This accounted for 6% of robbery in 2017-18 (up from 1% in 2008-09), suggesting that the estimated volume of these cases recorded by the police has increased by 70 (from 30 to 100). As most of those cases involved a perpetrator who was the female victim’s partner/ex-partner or a relative, it seems likely that the nature of robbery faced by the police had a more significant domestic element to it in 2017-18 than in 2008-09, albeit these cases still account for only a small minority of all robberies reported to the police.

Table 3: Estimated Change in Volume of Robbery between 2008-09 and 2017-18, by Scenario

Scenario: Robbery of..	Estimated change in volume between 2008-09 and 2017-18	Change as % of Total Fall
1. A male victim(s) in a public space, by someone they didn’t know, who used a weapon	-620	44%
2. A male victim(s) in a public space, by someone they didn’t know, who didn’t use a weapon	-290	21%
…a male victim(s) in a public space, by someone they didn’t know (1 and 2 Combined)	-910	65%
3. A female victim(s) in a public space, by someone they didn’t know, who used a weapon	-160	11%
4. A female victim(s) in a public space, by someone they didn’t know, who didn’t use a weapon	-150	11%
…a female victim(s) in a public space, by someone they didn’t know (3 and 4 Combined)	-310	22%
… victim(s) in a public space, by someone they didn’t know (1, 2, 3 and 4 Combined)	-1,220	87%
Change in Robbery between 2008-09 & 2017-18 (Recorded Crime National Statistics)	-1,407