Recorded Crimes and Offences Involving Firearms, Scotland, 2014-2015 and 2015-2016

4. Further information on statistics used in this bulletin

4.1 Statement on Data Quality

The statistics presented in this bulletin are derived from data returns submitted to Police Scotland. Unlike other Justice Analytical Services ( JAS) bulletins which have seen changes to the way data is collected arising from the merger of Scotland's police forces, this publication retains a familiar data process. The main difference is that Police Scotland, and not JAS, collect data returns from the divisions in respect of offences involving a firearm. A reporting officer based within each division of Police Scotland runs a series of queries on their individual Crime Management Systems to identify crime reports which include firearms. These records are then manually inputted into the data return. A full process map of how data is collected for this publication is shown in Chart 6, starting from incident reporting by police officers at an operational level to the publication of this bulletin.

Not all such crimes and offences are reported to the police. The extent of under-reporting is likely to vary considerably according to the seriousness of the crime or offence; for example, armed robberies are much more likely to be reported to the police than malicious damage caused by the firing of an air weapon. Moreover, the propensity of the public to report crimes and offences to the police is influenced by a number of factors and may therefore change over time; thus trends in the number of crimes and offences recorded may differ from trends in the number of crimes and offences actually committed. For further information, the Scottish Crime and Justice Survey for 2014/15 includes analysis on why some crimes are not reported to the police.

This bulletin reports on offences involving firearms that are both reported to the police and subsequently recorded as a crime.

One area that could affect the accuracy of the statistics reported in this bulletin is the potential for mistakes in the recording of crime at an operational-level, which could create errors in the Crime Management System ( CMS). The CMS should contain a record of all crime reports in Scotland and is audited by the Her Majesty's Inspectorate of Constabulary in Scotland (HMICS). On 21 September 2016, HMICS published Crime Audit 2016 ^[3] . The Audit found no systemic data quality issues around the recording of crimes and offences. The report found that 'the quality of most incident and crime recording decisions by Police Scotland is good' 92.7% of incidents were closed correctly and 95.1% of crime was counted and classified correctly.

Chart 6: Offences involving the alleged use of a firearm, data collection strategy for 2013-14

4.2 Publication of statistics for two years

The previous bulletin (for 2013-14) was postponed due to challenges faced by Police Scotland in collating the necessary data. Although those figures were published in June 2015, there was also some delay with the 2014-15 data. As such we decided to produce a two-year bulletin this time (for 2014-15 and 2015-16) - which means the publication cycle for this topic has now been fully recovered.

4.3 Data Returns

4.3.1 Miscellaneous firearm offences relating mainly to the possession, handling and distribution of firearms and ammunition are excluded from the main tables. Prior to 2005-06, data returns for this bulletin did include miscellaneous firearm offences, but in discussion with police forces it became apparent that not all such incidents were being included. It was therefore decided to remove such incidents from the main tables and to provide a separate table ( Table 17) which presents the totals for these offences based on Recorded Crime data returns.

4.3.2 Under the Code of Practice for Official Statistics, the estimated costs of responding to statistical surveys and data collection are to be published. The estimated cost for supplying and validating data for this return is £700 per year.

Details of the calculation methodology are available on the Scottish Government Crime and Justice website at: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Crime-Justice/costcalculation.

4.4 Legislation

4.4.1 Contraventions of Scottish criminal law are divided for statistical purposes into crimes and offences. "Crime" is generally used for the more serious criminal acts; the less serious termed "offences", although the term "offence" may also be used in relation to serious breaches of criminal law. The distinction is made only for working purposes and the "seriousness" of the offence is generally related to the maximum sentence that can be imposed.

4.4.2 Following the Dunblane incident in 1996, changes to the existing firearms legislation were introduced to enhance public safety. As a result, the Firearms (Amendment) Act 1997 (the '1997 Act') was implemented and thereafter the Firearms (Amendment) (No. 2) Act 1997 (the '1997 (No. 2) Act'). Under the 1997 Act, all pistols (otherwise referred to as "handguns") over .22 calibre were banned with effect from 1 October 1997. The 1997 (No. 2) Act came into effect from 1 March 1998. A number of types of handgun were exempted from the 1997 (No. 2) Act, including muzzle-loading guns, shot pistols, slaughtering instruments, firearms used for the humane killing of animals, trophies of war, etc.

4.4.3 The Anti-Social Behaviour Act 2003 raised the age for owning an air weapon from 14 years to 17 years; created a new offence of possessing an air weapon or imitation weapon in a public place without reasonable excuse; banned future import and sale of air weapons using self-contained air cartridge systems and licensed those already held. The Criminal Justice Act 2003 also imposed minimum sentences for the illegal possession of a prohibited firearm.

4.4.4 In relation to individuals aged under 18 years, the following legislation has been introduced:

• The Violent Crime Reduction Act 2006 raised the minimum age at which a person may purchase or hire either an air weapon or ammunition for an air weapon to 18 years.
• The EU Weapons Directive 91/477/ EEC made it an offence to sell or let on hire a firearm or ammunition to a person under the age of 18 years.

4.5 Crimes and offences cleared up

4.5.1 The definition of 'cleared up' was revised with effect from 1 April 1996. Previously, a crime or offence was regarded as being cleared up if one or more offenders was apprehended, cited, warned or traced for it. This was revised as follows:

A crime or offence is regarded as cleared up where there exists a sufficiency of evidence under Scots law, to justify consideration of criminal proceedings notwithstanding that a report is not submitted to the procurator fiscal because either:

(i) by standing agreement with the procurator fiscal, the police warn the accused due to the minor nature of the offence, or

(ii) reporting is inappropriate due to the non-age of the accused, death of the accused or other similar circumstances.

4.5.2 For some types of crimes and offences the case is cleared up immediately as the offender is caught in the act. In Scots law, the confession of an accused person to a crime would not in general be sufficient to allow a prosecution to be taken, as corroborative evidence is required. Thus, a case cannot be regarded as 'cleared up' on the basis of a confession alone.

4.5.3 Clear up rates are calculated as follows:

4.6 Statistical issues

4.6.1 Data returns for incidents that occurred in previous years can occasionally be submitted by police forces with their returns for the current year. This will result in revisions being made to figures previously published in this bulletin series.

4.6.2 There have been various changes to the way in which the type of firearm involved in offences has been recorded over the years. From 2005-06 onwards, all police forces agreed to identify weapons where possible, resulting in an increase in the alleged use of air weapons (and other identified weapons) and a decrease in the alleged use of unidentified firearms.

4.6.3 From 2005-06 onwards, the figures reported in this bulletin provide more extensive coverage of those crimes and offences recorded as involving a firearm. This follows discussions with police forces regarding the scope of the data collection and clarification of what should be included in the statistical return. This clarification is not thought to have impacted on major crimes and offences, but is considered to have resulted in an increase in some of the more minor categories

4.6.4 It was also agreed with all police forces that from 2006-07 onwards, all forces would include incidents involving air weapons where no injury or damage was caused. These incidents had previously been omitted from the bulletin. It is thought that this change has increased both the total number of offences of Reckless conduct with a firearm and the total number of offences involving air weapons.

4.6.5 The increase in offences involving a firearm in 2006-07 is thought to be partly due to the aforementioned clarification of the counting rules which led to the inclusion of more minor crimes that had perhaps been excluded in the past. The scope of what constitutes a firearm was also clarified as some police forces had previously not included incidents involving weapons such as taser guns, mace and pepper sprays, which are all covered under Section 5 of the Firearms Act 1968 (as amended). This clarification appears to have particularly affected figures for Common assault and Breach of the peace etc.

4.6.6 Prior to 2012-13, Lothian and Borders Police included incidents within their recorded crime and offences involving a firearm data return which indicated a possible firearm had been used, for example; smashing window by firing air pellet or similar at glass. This was recognised as inaccurate recording and instruction was given to the effect that where there was no evidence to substantiate a firearm had been used i.e. crime witnessed, bullet found etc., the report would not be tagged with a firearms marker. This will account for some of the decrease in the number of firearm offences recorded by Lothian and Borders Police in 2012-13 compared to previous years.

4.6.7 To calculate the figures shown in Chart 2 and Table 3, the total number of offences involving a firearm are calculated as a percentage of all crimes and offences recorded by the police. These figures are derived from the Scottish Government's ' Recorded Crime in Scotland' statistical bulletin series. The figures are provided in Table A.

4.6.8 The main firearm is that which inflicts the most serious injury or damage. In cases where no injury or damage is caused, the firearm that is considered to potentially be the most dangerous is treated as the main weapon. The 'other' firearms category includes weapons such as starting guns and ball bearing guns. From 1988, crossbows were included in the 'other' category. The 'imitation' firearms category includes replica and imitation weapons.

4.6.9 Details of the age and gender of the main victim (Tables 11 and 11a) are collected only for offences in which fatal or non-fatal injury is caused. The main victim is the person most seriously injured. Cases involving injury to animals are recorded under the category 'damage to property' rather than 'injury' - which is reserved solely for the purpose of recording injuries to persons.

4.6.10 Details of the age and gender of the main accused (Tables 13 and 14) are collected for offences that are cleared up. In offences involving injury or damage, the main accused is the person who inflicts the most serious injury or damage. In other instances, it is taken to be the oldest person.

4.6.11 The figures provided in Table 17 for stolen firearms are not included elsewhere in this bulletin. The information reflects solely those incidents where firearms were stolen and not whether they were used to perpetrate a crime or offence.

4.6.12 There have been minor changes to the categories included in the tables in this bulletin compared to previous bulletins in this series. The changes were made to give a clearer presentation of the data due to the fact that 'other' categories were starting to dominate certain breakdowns. The changes are as follows:

• Within the offences categories, 'Other crimes and offences' has been separated into 'Breach of the peace etc.' and 'Other crimes and offences'.

• Within the location categories, 'other locations' has been separated into 'shop' and 'other locations'.

Table A: Selected crimes and offences ¹ recorded by the police, Scotland, 2006-07 to 2015-16

Number

Type of Crime/Offence	2006-07	2007-08	2008-09	2009-10	2010-11	2011-12	2012-13	2013-14	2014-15	2015-16
Homicide 2	121	118	99	79	93	93	65	61	61	57
Attempted murder	820	711	710	560	573	503	354	317	263	293
Serious assault 3	6,525	6,000	5,762	5,061	4,920	4,190	3,289	2,951	2,903	3,716
Robbery	3,578	3,064	2,963	2,496	2,557	2,244	1,832	1,499	1,497	1,327
Vandalism	121,676	109,855	100,880	85,576	74,420	67,984	53,699	49,456	47,247	48,924
Common assault 3,4	78,167	73,523	74,130	72,212	70,786	69,253	60,955	60,357	58,178	58,596

Notes:
1. For further information on the selected crimes and offences recorded by the police included in this table, please see Note 4.7.1.
2. Includes Murder and Culpable homicide (common law). It excludes Causing death by dangerous driving, Causing death by careless driving while under the influence of drink or drugs, Causing death by careless driving, Illegal driver involved in a fatal accident and Corporate homicide.
3. For the distinction between Serious assault and Common assault, please see Note 4.7.2.
4. Common assault includes the offences of Common assault and Common assault of an emergency worker.

4.7 Classification

4.7.1 For the purposes of statistical reporting, the Scottish Government has a classification list containing about 475 crime and offence codes. These are grouped in this bulletin as follows:

Category	Notes
Homicide	Includes: Murder Culpable homicide (common law)
Attempted murder	Attempted murder
Serious assault	Serious assault
Robbery	Robbery and assault with intent to rob
Vandalism	Includes: Vandalism Reckless Damage Malicious mischief
Reckless conduct with firearms	Reckless conduct with firearms
Firearms Act 1968 offences	Firearm with intent to endanger life, commit crime or resist arrest
Common assault	Includes: Common assault Common assault of an emergency worker
Breach of the peace etc.	Includes: Breach of the peace Threatening or abusive behaviour
Other crimes and offences	Includes: Possession of an offensive weapon Poaching and game laws Deer offences Cruelty to animals Offences involving animals Offences involving birds

4.7.2 In Scotland, assault is a common law offence. In order to distinguish between serious and common assaults, police forces use a common definition of what a serious assault is, namely:

"An assault or attack in which the victim sustains injury resulting in detention in hospital as an inpatient, for the treatment of that injury, or any of the following injuries whether or not detained in hospital:

• Fractures (the breaking or cracking of a bone. Note - nose is cartilage not bone, so a 'broken nose' should not be classified unless it meets one of the other criteria)
• Internal injuries
• Severe concussion
• Lacerations requiring sutures which may lead to impairment or disfigurement
• Any other injury which may lead to impairment or disfigurement."

4.8 Other

4.8.1 Only a limited selection of tables are included in this bulletin. However, further analysis of recorded crimes and offences involving firearms statistics can be supplied upon request. This includes available information relating to a different time period than that covered in this bulletin. In certain cases, a fee may be charged for additional information. For details of what can be provided, please telephone Justice Analytical Services on 0131 244 2635 or e-mail Justice_Analysts@gov.scot.

4.8.2 The percentage figures given in tables and charts have been independently rounded, so they may not always sum to the relevant sub-totals or totals.

4.8.3 The following symbols are used throughout the tables in this bulletin:

- = nil.
~ = percentage less than 0.05%.
* = percentage less than 0.5%.
n/r = not reported (a percentage change figure is not reported if the denominator is less than ten as any resulting figure may be misleading).

4.9 Comparator data

4.9.1 Country comparisons should be made with some caution as each country's statistics are based on separate collection systems with their own definitions for what constitutes an offence involving a firearm. The Office for National Statistics publishes information on offences involving firearms in England and Wales. Chapter 3 in Crime Statistics, Focus on Violent Crime and Sexual Offences: year ending March 2015, released in February 2016, includes information on offences involving firearms. http://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/crimeandjustice/compendium/focusonviolentcrimeandsexualoffences/yearendingmarch2015

4.9.2 The Scottish Crime and Justice Survey (SCJS) is a survey of public experiences and perceptions of crime in Scotland. The 2014-15 survey is the fifth sweep of the current guise of the SCJS, with the first being conducted in 2008/09. The survey involves interviews with adults (aged 16 or over) who live in private residential addresses in Scotland.

4.9.3 Only certain categories of crime covered by the SCJS are directly comparable with police recorded crime statistics. These categories are collectively referred to as comparable crime. Comparable crime can be broken down into the following three crime groups.

• Acquisitive crime: comprising housebreaking, theft of a motor vehicle and bicycle theft;
• Vandalism: including both vehicle and property vandalism;
• Violent crime: comprising assault and robbery.