Coronavirus (COVID-19): measures to mitigate the labour market impacts - report
This report from a sub-group of the Enterprise and Skills Strategic Board contains recommendations for actions and interventions to help mitigate the expected rise in unemployment caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
Annex F: Summary Assessment of Short-listed Options
The sub-group undertook a qualitative assessment on the shortlisted options. This reflects the time constraints the sub-group was working under which meant a detailed cost-benefit analysis of each option was not possible. Furthermore, with imperfect information the sub-group had to use its judgement when undertaking the assessment.
The following criteria was used to assess each option:
1. Deliverability: Given the need for urgent action, can the option be delivered quickly in order to mitigate the large rise in unemployment expected in the second half of 2020.
2. Affordability: of the option in light of the current budget challenges and the expectation that resources should be maximised within the existing enterprise and skills system.
3. Value for money: Based on the range of current evaluation evidence, including lessons from past recessions, to what extent does the option offer value for money.
4. Private sector buy-in: For most options there will need to be private sector buy-in to avoid undertaking a range of training and support which will not result in people securing employment.
5. Impact: what is the expected overall impact of the option, recognising the scale of the rise in unemployment expected in the coming months.
A traffic light system was used to assess the extent to which the option met the criteria: green = high; amber = medium; and red = low. A summary of the assessment undertaken, and the overall judgement of each option is included in the following table.
Following this assessment, some of the options were merged.
Option |
Deliverability |
Affordability |
Value for money |
Private sector buy-in |
Impact |
Overall assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Top Priorities for Immediate Action |
||||||
1. Business assistance to support employee retention |
G |
G |
G |
G |
G |
This is an affordable option which can, alongside other measures, help support Scottish businesses to retain staff and recover. |
2. Introducing a Social Responsibility Clause |
G |
G |
G |
A |
G |
This low-cost option could have an immediate impact and would be straightforward to deliver. |
3. Helping vulnerable young people into employment |
G |
G |
G |
G |
G |
This is a priority area which will help mitigate the rise in long-term unemployment. |
4. Innovations to Maximise options for Apprentice and other Trainee Retention, Recruitment and Learning |
G |
A |
G |
G |
G |
This is a priority area as it will not only mitigate the rise in unemployment but will support the reskilling necessary for people to successfully transition into a different sector. |
5. Scale Up - PACE Plus to offer skills assessment, job search and training advice to redundant workers |
G |
A |
G |
A |
G |
This is a priority area and will be vital in helping the large scale of people facing redundancy. |
6. Colleges & Universities & private training providers provide rapid, short, sharp courses, developed in partnership with industry, that will enable those unemployed to transition rapidly from declining sectors/jobs into growth jobs. Colleges and universities to support young people into purposeful learning and training. |
A |
G |
G |
G |
G |
A priority area but more work required to understand how this can be scaled up to meet expected demand (both from individuals and business). Up to date and robust LMI is needed to enable decisions on the courses to be offered. |
Important Actions to be Taken Forward by Other Groups Supporting the Recovery |
||||||
7. Ongoing Fiscal Support for private employers |
A |
A |
A |
G |
G |
Option feeds into aspects covered by other groups supporting the recovery. The case is likely to be stronger from these groups, therefore this should not be a top priority action from the sub-group. |
8. Social Responsibility |
G |
G |
G |
A |
G |
This low-cost option could have an immediate impact and would be straightforward to deliver. |
Further Actions to be Considered Further by the Sub-group Over the Summer |
||||||
9. Incentives to Employers for employment of trainees |
A |
R |
A |
G |
G |
This would play a key role in mitigating unemployment rises but would need significant additional resource (potentially dependent on announcement from UK Government). |
10. COVID-19 Transition Training Fund (aggregate all programmes in single COVID 19 fund; TTF, ITAs, bursaries etc.) |
A |
A |
A |
G |
G |
A priority area but need to consider how best to deliver this to ensure the right support is provided in the right places. |
11. Maximise graduate apprenticeship provision with pathways to employment. Focus on sectors & jobs that will support economic recovery. |
G |
G |
G |
G |
G |
This should be part of the recovery, although unclear at this stage on the scale of gaps which could be successfully filled by Scottish students. |
12. Further creation and growth and demand stimulus |
Assessment to be completed |
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Options Fed into Advisory Group on Economic Recovery |
|
|---|---|
1. Continuation of furlough scheme in some form 2. Business Gateway - Enterprise Agencies to target support 3. Rescue & protect strong but vulnerable businesses by creating equity matching service/government funded body 4. Accelerate digital transformation of SMEs & micro businesses by investment in broadband infrastructure upscaling 5. Accelerate infrastructure investment for job creation and long-term competitive advantage e.g. Digital fast broadband across Scotland 6. Bring forward investment in green projects - such as £10-12 billion programme for retrofitting energy efficiency into homes - to create construction jobs and accelerate transition to net zero carbon 7. Capital investment programme to enhance job creation and balance Scotland e.g. Improved transport links 8. Explore import substitution - export more aggressively with focus initially on UK upscale opportunities 9. Tax/voucher rebate on R and D that has a commercial business case 10. Incentivise banks to support business start-ups and expansion in local economy - 11. Support to revisiting procurement criteria to increase weighting on domestic market provision 12. City Deals - accelerate known projects or repurpose some of funding to support initiatives that have job creation projects or support high risk businesses e.g. build outdoor covered public spaces for use by restaurants and bars to expand capacity during social distancing |
No assessment necessary |
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