Protection of Water Against Agricultural Nitrate Pollution (Scotland) Regulations 1996: implementation report 2020 to 2023

7. Forecasting future water quality

Monitoring has shown that surface water sites have continued to maintain a high standard of water quality. This is expected to continue, although with surface waters in Scotland already in good condition with respect to nitrates any improvement will continue to be small.

Although there has been no strong trend in the concentration of nitrates in groundwater, the number of sites averaging over 37.5mgNO₃/l has continued to decrease (Figure 2.3). Moreover, the area of groundwater at red and amber risk for nitrate over time (Figure 7.1) shows a reduction in the area of groundwater bodies that are at red risk for nitrate.

Those areas of groundwater bodies that are at the highest risk continue to be predominantly within the NVZs (Figure 7.2). This suggests that measures set out in the Action Programme focus on the right areas.

We expect that the combination of the Nitrates Action Programme, the general binding rules of the Controlled Activities Regulations and the diffuse pollution awareness rising campaign, will all contribute to the ongoing maintenance and improvements in water quality with respect to nitrates in Scotland. This is supported by research and prediction of recovery of groundwater quality, undertaken as part of the assessment of River Basin Management Planning under the terms of the Water Framework Directive. This uses a trend analysis to compare predictions of nitrate concentrations to classification thresholds (e.g. 37.5 mgNO₃/l).

However, it is important to recognise that there could be additional pressures on waterbodies in the future, such as from climate change. It is, therefore, important that the measures in place continue to protect and improve the water environment keep pace with pressures and remain appropriate.

We will review the Action Programme in 2025 to ensure measures remain appropriate and evidence based. This will include engagement with stakeholders, particularly to support the gathering of relevant evidence to support the review.

We will also continue to work to make sure that wider policy developments continue to support the protection of the water environment in Scotland.

Figure 7.1 – The area of groundwater bodies that are at red and amber risk for nitrate between 2012 and 2023.

Figure 7.2 – Map of the groundwater bodies and their associated risk for nitrate pollution (see colour key). Nitrate Vulnerable Zones are outlined in blue.