Respite Care Scotland, 2015

3. Estimated real terms changes in respite provision, 2007/08 to 2014/15

When comparing respite provision over the past eight years, only changes in recorded levels of overnight care and daytime care are considered. This is because information on respite care provided through Direct Payments has only been available since 2012/13, and remains incomplete in terms of national coverage.

Local Authorities have been improving and refining their data collection methodologies since 2007/08. In the years where the methodology has been revised, two different sets of respite figures are presented:

• a comparable figure based on the same methodology as the previous year
• a figure based on the revised methodology, which is not comparable to previous years but comparable going forward

Using this approach has allowed Local Authorities to revise their methodologies, whilst still allowing for real terms changes in respite provision to be identified.

Diagram 1 shows how respite weeks data will be presented in this section of the Release. Over the period 2007/08 to 2014/15, there are five sets of comparable figures (denoted by superscript numbers 0-4), each associated with a defined set of national guidance. The comparable sets of figures can then be used to estimate the real terms differences year-on-year.

Diagram 1: Example tabular presentation of respite week figures

Greater care needs to be used if attempting to use the tabular format shown in Diagram 1 to estimate real terms changes over more than one year. Instead, charts such as Chart 1 may be used to visualize the estimated real terms changes in respite week provision across multiple years. Note that the vertical axes of these charts show the estimated cumulative real terms changes in respite weeks from 2007/08. A downward shift from one year to the next represents an estimated real terms decrease in respite weeks between those years, whereas a negative axis value represents an estimated real terms decrease from 2007/08.

The national guidance used to collect respite information from Local Authorities did not change between 2012/13 and 2014/15. As such, Authorities were asked to return 2014/15 information on the basis of a single set of guidance. However, in the explanatory notes supplied with the data returns 11 Authorities identified recording changes related to the roll-out of Self-Directed Support (SDS) and 8 identified specific improvements to their local recording systems over the past year (see Section 5.5 for further details). As a result, an additional degree of uncertainty is associated with making real terms comparisons of Scotland level respite provision between 2013/14 and 2014/15. The likely sense and potential magnitude of this uncertainty is considered in Section 5.5.

Only Scotland level analysis is presented in this section of the Release. Information on respite provision at the Local Authority level may be found in the Annexes. Additional care should be taken when interpreting year-to-year changes within this data, especially in the cases of the Authorities who have experienced known recording changes over the past year.

3.1. Respite weeks provided for the benefit of carers of all age groups

The five different sets of comparable figures in Table 1 show an increase in combined overnight and daytime respite provision from 172,730 weeks in 2007/08 to 196,060 weeks in 2014/15. This is an apparent total increase of 23,330 weeks over this time period, of which it is estimated that 19,710 weeks are due to improved data recording and/or methodology changes and the remaining 3,620 weeks are due to a real terms increase in respite provision.

The number of daytime respite weeks provided in 2014/15 was 132,980, with 63,080 overnight weeks being provided. The balance of overnight to daytime care, with 68% being during the daytime, has remained around the same value since 2009/10, following an increase from 2007/08. This earlier increase is known to have been affected by methodology changes, as Local Authorities generally find it much harder to identify daytime respite.

Table 1: Overnight and daytime respite weeks provided in Scotland, 2007/08 to 2014/15

	2007/080	2008/090	2008/091	2009/101	2009/102	2010/112	2010/113	2011/123	2012/133	2012/134	2013/144	2014/154
Overnight	62,750	62,800	62,730	64,110	64,290	64,650	64,900	66,570	65,880	65,760	65,030	63,080
Daytime	109,980	111,230	132,980	139,460	145,510	146,570	138,820	138,500	139,920	139,320	137,650	132,980
Total	172,730	174,030	195,710	203,570	209,800	211,210	203,730	205,070	205,800	205,080	202,690	196,060
% of respite (Daytime)	64%	64%	68%	69%	69%	69%	68%	68%	68%	68%	68%	68%

Source: Audit Scotland SPI data 2007/08-2008/09, Scottish Government 2009/10-2014/15

Note: All respite weeks figures are rounded to the nearest ten.

At the year-to-year level, estimated respite provision increased in real terms for every year up to 2012/13 (including a relatively large increase in 2009/10), followed by estimated decreases over the past two years, as shown in Table 2.

Table 2: Estimated real terms change in respite weeks provided, 2007/08 to 2014/15

From	To	Change	% Change
2007/080	2008/090	1,300	0.8%
2008/091	2009/101	7,860	4.0%
2009/102	2010/112	1,410	0.7%
2010/113	2011/123	1,340	0.7%
2011/123	2012/133	730	0.4%
2012/134	2013/144	-2,390	-1.2%
2013/144	2014/154	-6,630	-3.3%

Source: Audit Scotland SPI data 2007/08-2008/09, Scottish Government 2009/10-2014/15
Note: All respite weeks figures are rounded to the nearest ten.

Chart 6 shows that the estimated changes in total respite provision, including the relatively large increase in 2009/10, are mainly accounted for by the changes in daytime provision.

Chart 6: Estimated real terms changes in overnight and daytime respite weeks provided in Scotland, 2007/08 to 2014/15

Source: Audit Scotland SPI data 2007/08-2008/09, Scottish Government 2009/10-2014/15
Note: Estimated real terms changes exclude the impact of changes to methodology between years.

17 out of 32 Local Authorities recorded decreases in their total overnight and daytime respite provision between 2013/14 and 2014/15, while 12 recorded increases, as shown in Chart 7. It is not possible to make this comparison for the Orkney Islands and Perth & Kinross (2014/15 data not comparable with 2013/14), and no data was submitted by East Renfrewshire. Dundee City and Scottish Borders were the only Authorities to record an increase of over 10%, while Aberdeenshire, Angus, Argyll & Bute, East Ayrshire and Glasgow City recorded a decrease of more than 10%.

Chart 7: Percentage change in respite weeks provided between 2013/14 and 2014/15, by Local Authority

Source: Scottish Government 2014/15
East Renfrewshire, Orkney and Perth & Kinross not included due to data issues.

The largest recorded decrease in both respite weeks and percentage was that for Glasgow City, at 3,930 weeks and 24.7%. While there are some operational reasons for this - the introduction a maximum number of respite nights per service user for older people, for example - the main reason for the reduction in recorded provision is the continued roll-out of Self-Directed Support, as Glasgow City is unable to report on respite provided through SDS.

3.2. Respite weeks provided for the benefit of the carers of young people (aged 0-17)

The five different sets of comparable figures in Table 3 show an estimated decrease in respite weeks provided for the benefit of carers of young people (aged 0-17) from 23,950 weeks in 2007/08 to 20,680 in 2014/15. This apparent total decrease of 3,270 weeks can be broken down into an estimated 850 weeks due to improved data recording and/or methodology changes and 2,420 weeks real terms decrease in respite provision. The population aged 0-17 has decreased by 1.9% over this period.

The proportion of care delivered in the daytime in 2014/15 was unchanged from 2013/14 at 67%.

Table 3: Overnight and daytime respite weeks provided for the benefit of carers of young people (aged 0-17) in Scotland, 2007/08 to 2014/15

	2007/080	2008/090	2008/091	2009/101	2009/102	2010/112	2010/113	2011/123	2012/133	2012/134	2013/144	2014/154
Overnight	7,850	8,000	8,050	8,200	8,200	7,470	7,450	7,670	7,470	7,760	7,320	6,900
Daytime	16,100	14,830	14,720	15,880	16,140	16,570	15,390	15,300	16,440	16,300	14,750	13,780
Total	23,950	22,830	22,770	24,080	24,340	24,040	22,830	22,970	23,900	24,060	22,060	20,680
% of respite (Daytime)	67%	65%	65%	66%	66%	69%	67%	67%	69%	68%	67%	67%

Source: Audit Scotland SPI data 2007/08-2008/09, Scottish Government 2009/10-2014/15
Note: All respite weeks figures are rounded to the nearest ten.

The relatively large year-to-year changes associated with this cared-for age group shown in Table 4 arise, at least in part, because it contains smaller numbers of clients with larger care packages than the adult cared-for age groupings. As a result, a small number of young people moving out of this age group and into adult services can lead to relatively large changes to recorded provision.

Table 4: Estimated real terms change in respite weeks provided to carers of young people (aged 0-17), 2007/08 to 2014/15

From	To	Change	% Change
2007/080	2008/090	-1,120	-4.7%
2008/091	2009/101	1,310	5.8%
2009/102	2010/112	-300	-1.2%
2010/113	2011/123	140	0.6%
2011/123	2012/133	930	4.0%
2012/134	2013/144	-2,000	-8.3%
2013/144	2014/154	-1,380	-6.3%

Source: Audit Scotland SPI data 2007/08-2008/09, Scottish Government 2009/10-2014/15
Note: All respite weeks figures are rounded to the nearest ten.

Chart 8, which uses the same scale as Chart 6, shows that changes in respite provision for carers of young people aged up to 17 is a relatively small component of total respite provision.

Chart 8: Estimated real terms changes in overnight and daytime respite weeks provided for the benefit of carers of young people (aged 0 to 17) in Scotland, 2007/08 to 2014/15

Source: Audit Scotland SPI data 2007/08-2008/09, Scottish Government 2009/10-2014/15
Note: Estimated real terms changes exclude the impact of changes to methodology between years.

3.3. Respite weeks provided for the benefit of the carers of adults aged 18-64

The five different sets of comparable figures in Table 5 show an estimated increase in respite weeks provided for the benefit of carers of adults aged 18-64 from 59,050 weeks in 2007/08 to 69,280 in 2014/15. This apparent total increase of 10,230 weeks can be broken down into an estimated increase of 11,900 weeks due to improved data recording and/or methodology changes and an estimated real terms decrease of 1,670 weeks in respite provision. The population aged 18-64 has increased by 2.3% over this period.

This cared-for age group has the highest proportion of respite that is provided during daytime, at between 74% and 76% since 2009/10. This proportion has increased since 2007/08 due to methodology changes, as Local Authorities generally find it much harder to identify daytime respite.

Table 5: Overnight and daytime respite weeks provided for the benefit of carers of adults aged 18-64 in Scotland, 2007/08 to 2014/15

	2007/080	2008/090	2008/091	2009/101	2009/102	2010/112	2010/113	2011/123	2012/133	2012/134	2013/144	2014/154
Overnight	18,030	18,760	18,690	20,180	20,300	19,550	19,850	19,790	18,090	17,750	16,970	16,990
Daytime	41,020	39,700	50,380	53,620	56,650	58,090	57,790	56,920	57,080	55,560	55,160	52,290
Total	59,050	58,460	69,070	73,790	76,950	77,640	77,640	76,710	75,170	73,300	72,130	69,280
% of respite (Daytime)	69%	68%	73%	73%	74%	75%	74%	74%	76%	76%	76%	75%

Source: Audit Scotland SPI data 2007/08-2008/09, Scottish Government 2009/10-2014/15
Note: All respite weeks figures are rounded to the nearest ten.

After a large real terms increase in 2009/10, the estimated real terms number of respite weeks provided to carers of adults aged 18 to 64 has fallen in each of the last four years, as shown in Table 6.

Table 6: Estimated real terms change in respite weeks provided to carers of adults aged 18-64, 2007/08 to 2014/15

From	To	Change	% Change
2007/080	2008/090	-590	-1.0%
2008/091	2009/101	4,720	6.8%
2009/102	2010/112	690	0.9%
2010/113	2011/123	-930	-1.2%
2011/123	2012/133	-1,540	-2.0%
2012/134	2013/144	-1,170	-1.6%
2013/144	2014/154	-2,850	-4.0%

Source: Audit Scotland SPI data 2007/08-2008/09, Scottish Government 2009/10-2014/15
Note: All respite weeks figures are rounded to the nearest ten.

Chart 9 shows that the reduction in respite weeks provided in 2014/15 was due to a reduction in daytime respite. This is a change from the previous two years, where there was little change in daytime respite provision, but provision of overnight respite decreased.

Chart 9: Estimated real terms changes in overnight and daytime respite weeks provided for the benefit of carers of adults aged 18 to 64 in Scotland, 2007/08 to 2014/15

Source: Audit Scotland SPI data 2007/08-2008/09, Scottish Government 2009/10-2014/15
Note: Estimated real terms changes exclude the impact of changes to methodology between years.

3.4. Respite weeks provided for the benefit of the carers of older people (aged 65 and over)

The five different sets of comparable figures in Table 7 show an estimated increase in respite weeks provided for the benefit of carers of adults aged 65 and over from 89,730 weeks in 2007/08 to 106,090 in 2014/15. This apparent total increase of 16,360 weeks can be broken down into an estimated increase of 8,650 weeks due to improved data recording and/or methodology changes and 7,710 weeks real terms increase in respite provision. The population aged 65 and over has increased by 14.5% between 2007/08 and 2014/15.

This cared-for age group has the lowest proportion of respite provided during daytime, at 62%-63% between 2011/12 and 2014/15.

Table 7: Overnight and daytime respite weeks provided for the benefit of carers of older people (aged 65 and over) in Scotland, 2007/08 to 2014/15

	2007/080	2008/090	2008/091	2009/101	2009/102	2010/112	2010/113	2011/123	2012/133	2012/134	2013/144	2014/154
Overnight	36,870	36,040	35,990	35,740	35,790	37,620	37,610	39,120	40,330	40,250	40,740	39,190
Daytime	52,860	56,700	67,880	69,960	72,720	71,910	65,640	66,270	66,410	67,470	67,750	66,900
Total	89,730	92,740	103,870	105,700	108,510	109,530	103,250	105,390	106,730	107,720	108,490	106,090
% of respite (Daytime)	59%	61%	65%	66%	67%	66%	64%	63%	62%	63%	62%	63%

Source: Audit Scotland SPI data 2007/08-2008/09, Scottish Government 2009/10-2014/15
Note: All respite weeks figures are rounded to the nearest ten.

There has been an estimated decrease in respite provision in 2014/15 for the benefit of carers of people aged 65 and over, as shown in Table 8, following six consecutive years of estimated real terms increases.

Table 8: Estimated real terms change in respite weeks provided to carers of older people, 2007/08 to 2014/15

From	To	Change	% Change
2007/080	2008/090	3,010	3.4%
2008/091	2009/101	1,830	1.8%
2009/102	2010/112	1,020	0.9%
2010/113	2011/123	2,140	2.1%
2011/123	2012/133	1,340	1.3%
2012/134	2013/144	770	0.7%
2013/144	2014/154	-2,400	-2.2%

Source: Audit Scotland SPI data 2007/08-2008/09, Scottish Government 2009/10-2014/15
Note: All respite weeks figures are rounded to the nearest ten.

Chart 10 shows the real terms change in overnight and daytime respite weeks provided for the benefit of carers of older people since 2007/08. This chart is on the same scale as Chart 6, and shows that the changes estimated for this cared-for age group account for a large part of the total increases seen between 2008/09 and 2012/13.

Chart 10: Estimated real terms changes in overnight and daytime respite weeks provided for the benefit of carers of older people (aged 65 and over) in Scotland, 2007/08 to 2014/15

Source: Audit Scotland SPI data 2007/08-2008/09, Scottish Government 2009/10-2014/15
Note: Estimated real terms changes exclude the impact of changes to methodology between years.