Results from the Scottish Agricultural Census: June 2023 Methodology Report

Comparability

Results have been published with a ten year time series where possible for comparison. There is also a comparison with the five year average between 2017 to 2021. Comparing to a five year average allows us to compare the current year to average trends in the farming sector over a recent time period.

Where required, data tables include notes to make users aware of any potential issues with data comparisons. Further explanation of the most important issues is provided below:

Migrant labour estimates

Migrant labour estimates should be viewed with caution. The research study ‘Farm workers in Scottish agriculture: case studies’ noted that ”it is challenging to estimate the extent of seasonal migrant labour use in Scotland for a variety of reasons: (i) variation in the proportion of labour directly employed on farms compared to that indirectly employed through labour providers; (ii) incomplete estimates of seasonal migrant labour provision in administrative databases; (iii) farm businesses leasing their land to specialist growers who undertake all of the farming activity; (iv) the transitory nature of some migrant labour – working on multiple farms”. In light of the findings of the study, the method of collecting migrant labour statistics will continue to be reviewed. The study included some estimates of migrant worker numbers for 2017 and can be accessed here .  

Poultry data estimates

The reliability of poultry estimates is affected by the availability of returns from a small number of large poultry producers and year on year changes should be viewed with some caution.

As part of the pause on producing census statistics in 2022 a review was carried out of how missing data for poultry is estimated.

Poultry numbers can fluctuate a lot from year to year due to the agricultural census collecting information from the 1st of June each year, which may not capture the true extent of poultry numbers that changed over the course of the year. Previously assumptions were made regarding holdings who didn’t provide a return in a given year, which resulted in poultry numbers being rolled forward over multiple years. Due to the potential that increasing costs to the poultry sector and disease outbreaks could be influencing poultry numbers it was determined that rolling forward of missing data should be concluded.

In 2023 a small amount of missing data was rolled forward for holdings who had provided a return in 2021, however rolling forward from historic years did not take place. This approach has reduced poultry numbers compared to previous estimates, but should provide a more accurate estimate of the number of poultry in Scotland. The time series for this data is broken at 2021 to account for the methodological change.

Livestock Estimates (excluding poultry)

For sheep aged 1 year and over, since 2016 there has been a considerable decrease in those to be used for breeding and an increase in the number of other sheep. This was investigated and found to be fairly widespread amongst holdings with sheep and seems to reflect a genuine change.

Prior to 2013, statistical data on cattle populations were collected through the June census and December survey in Scotland. In order to reduce the burden on survey respondents, cattle data from 2013 was collected through CTS, an administrative data source held by the British Cattle Movement Service (BCMS) which records cattle movements across Great Britain.  

Changes resulting from use of administrative data from the Single Application Form

Since 2009, data on land use has been obtained from the Single Application Form (SAF). These data were combined with land use data from all the other holdings, collected through June Census forms, to generate overall June Census results. This development led to a substantial reduction in statistical data collection burden and an overall improvement in the quality of land use statistics. In 2023, SAF data was obtained for agricultural holdings.

Changes were made in 2015 to the ways in which rough grazing, woodland, other land and seasonally let land were collected on the SAF. This has affected the level of detail available in these land use categories for some holdings while data on seasonally let land data could not be collected. In 2015 to 2017 woodland and other land were disaggregated by imputing values for land parcels based on information supplied in 2014. These were becoming less reliable estimates with each passing year, so from 2018 onwards an estimate for the two categories combined has been provided.

In 2015, the definitions of temporary and permanent grass were changed on the SAF. From 2015, temporary grass relates to whether it has been reseeded in the last five years, whereas previously it related to how long it had been used for grass. The new definition only includes land that is included in a holding’s crop rotation. This means changes between 2014 and 2015 in grass under 5 years old, and grass 5 years and older, do not represent genuine changes in land use, but instead differences in how grass data were recorded.

A change in the collection of data on strawberries and raspberries led to some discontinuities between 2010 and 2011 and between 2011 and 2012.

Comparison with other UK nations

The other UK nations each run a similar survey of Agriculture in June. The Department for the Environment and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) co-ordinates a UK level publication. Links for comparison are provided below:

England

Wales

Northern Ireland

United Kingdom