Results from TIMES model for total greenhouse gas emissions: EIR release

Information request and response under the Environmental Information (Scotland) Regulations 2004.


Information requested

You asked for the results produced by the Scottish Government's TIMES model on the date 15 May 2023 for total greenhouse gas emissions under policies committed to for the years 2025, 2030, 2040 and 2045. You also asked for the greenhouse gas emissions savings that would be needed to meet the government's targets for those dates.

Response

Under the terms of the exception at regulation 10(4)(a) of the EIRs (information not held), the Scottish Government is not required to provide information which it does not have. The Scottish Government does not have the information you have requested in the first part of your inquiry. The TIMES model is used for a different purpose: to input into policy formation by considering a wide range of potential technological and demand changes and to consider costs and impact of these changes upon the energy system as a whole. It is not used to compile an aggregate impact assessment of committed policies in the manner described in your request.

This exception is subject to the 'public interest test'. Therefore, taking account of all the circumstances of this case, we have considered if the public interest in disclosing the information outweighs the public interest in applying the exception. We have found that, on balance, the public interest lies in favour of upholding the exception. While we recognise that there may be some public interest in information about the Scottish TIMES model, clearly we cannot provide information which we do not hold.

The latter part of your request relates to targets. The targets below are based on the latest Greenhouse Gas Statistics release for the period 1990-2020. For the purposes of modelling, we are required to anticipate, where possible, future changes to these statistics. The next release of these statistics (20 June 2023) will include revised global warming potentials for non-CO2 greenhouse gases which have been factored into the following targets.

Year

Target level required (MtCO2e)

Reduction required compared to 2020. (MtCO2e)

2020*

40.6

 

2025

31.8

8.8

2030

20.7

19.8

2035

14.5

26.0

2040

8.3

32.3

2045

0.0

40.6

* The value for 2020 relates to published emissions using updated global warming potentials

About FOI

The Scottish Government is committed to publishing all information released in response to Freedom of Information requests. View all FOI responses at http://www.gov.scot/foi-responses.

Contact

Please quote the FOI reference
Central Enquiry Unit
Email: ceu@gov.scot
Phone: 0300 244 4000

The Scottish Government
St Andrews House
Regent Road
Edinburgh
EH1 3DG

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