Publication - Research and analysis

Scottish housing market: tax revenue forecasting models – review

Findings of an independent literature review of tax revenue forecasting models for the housing market.

ARIMA Auto-regressive integrated moving average

BVAR Bayesian vector autoregression

COMPASS Central Organising Model for Projection Analysis and Scenario Simulation.

DFM Dynamic factor modelling

DSGE Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium

ECM Error-correction mechanism

FRBNY Federal Reserve Bank of New York

GARCH Generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity

HMT HM Treasury

LBTT Land and Buildings Transaction Tax

LENS Large Empirical and Semi-structural model

MultiMod The IMF's multicountry macro model

OBR Office for Budget Responsibility

OLS Ordinary Least Squares

RICS Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors

ToTEM Terms-of-Trade Economic Model

VAR Vector autoregression

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