Rural Scotland Data Dashboard: Overview

1. Introduction

This report accompanies the Rural Scotland Data Dashboard which presents data on a range of issues that impact rural Scotland. This report synthesises the data included in the dashboard into a broader picture of successes, challenges and trends in rural Scotland.

This introduction sets out the purpose of the dashboard, the policy context, and outlines the main trends in the data from across the different sections.

The Rural Scotland Data Dashboard

This report accompanies the Rural Scotland Data Dashboard, which presents data on a range of issues that impact people living and working in rural Scotland, from the economy to transport, health and housing.

The Rural Scotland Data Dashboard has eight sections:

1. Economic development;

2. Transport;

3. Housing;

4. Social justice;

5. Population;

6. Digital connectivity;

7. Education and skills;

8. Health and social care.

Focusing on trends, successes and challenges, this report brings together data included in the dashboard and summarises the main themes to give a broader picture of rural Scotland. The next section explains the geographical classifications used in this report to define areas of Scotland as remote, rural, accessible and urban. The following sections set out the research and policy context for this work, and outline the wider trends in the data from across the dashboard.

The Scottish Government Urban Rural Classification

The Rural Scotland Data Dashboard and the data referred to in this report uses the Scottish Government Urban Rural Classification 2020^[1] which provides a consistent way of defining urban and rural areas across Scotland.

It is based on two main criteria:

1. Population as defined by the National Records of Scotland

2. Accessibility based on drive time to a Settlement with a population of 10,000 or more.

The Scottish Government core definition of rurality classifies areas with a population of fewer than 3,000 people to be rural. The Scottish Government Urban Rural Classification can be collapsed to this core definition, to create a 2-fold classification:

• Rest of Scotland – (1) Large Urban Areas, (2) Other Urban Areas, (3) Accessible Small Towns, and (4) Remote Small Towns.
• Rural Scotland – (5) Accessible Rural and (6) Remote Rural Areas.

Where further classification is possible by accessibility, multiple forms exist including a 3-fold classification which distinguishes between remote rural, accessible rural and the rest of Scotland, and a 6-fold classification which distinguishes between large urban areas, other urban areas, accessible small towns, remote small towns, accessible rural areas and remote rural areas (see Table 1.1).

Table 1.1 Scottish Government Urban Rural Classification, 6-fold

Class 1

Class Name: Large Urban Areas

Description: Settlements of 125,000 people and over.

Class 2

Class Name: Other Urban Areas

Description: Settlements of 10,000 to 124,999 people.

Class 3

Class Name: Accessible Small Towns

Description: Settlements of 3,000 to 9,999 people, and within a 30 minute drive time of a Settlement of 10,000 or more.

Class 4

Class Name: Remote Small Towns

Description: Settlements of 3,000 to 9,999 people, and with a drive time of over 30 minutes to a Settlement of 10,000 or more.

Class 5

Class Name: Accessible Rural Areas

Description: Areas with a population of less than 3,000 people, and within a drive time of 30 minutes to a Settlement of 10,000 or more

Class 6

Class Name: Remote Rural Areas

Description: Areas with a population of less than 3,000 people, and with a drive time of over 30 minutes to a Settlement of 10,000 or more.

An 8-fold classification further distinguishes between remote and very remote regions. Scottish islands are included in these categories.

On occasions where data cannot be categorised by population and accessibility, the Rural Scotland Data Dashboard and figures in this report use the Scottish Government’s Rural & Environmental Science and Analytical Services (RESAS) Classification of Local Authorities,^[2] which clusters local authorities according to their level of rurality and establishes four different groups, which are labelled as ‘larger cities’, ‘urban with substantial rural areas’, ‘mainly rural’ and ‘islands and remote.’

1.1 Rural Scotland

Rural areas constitute 98% of Scotland’s landmass and 17% of its population.^[3] At the time of the 2011 Census, 93 of Scotland’s islands were inhabited.^[4]

Rural and island communities across Scotland are diverse and face distinct challenges. This includes both persistent and newer challenges. Persistent challenges include access to services, availability and affordability of housing, fuel costs, transport and population change. Newer challenges include a changing climate and the transition to net zero, with transformations required that will impact the rural workforce across all sectors, alongside wider agricultural and land reform.

In recent years, EU exit, the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and the cost of living crisis have had significant impacts across rural and island Scotland, with rural communities and businesses facing specific challenges such as population change, rising fuel prices and recruitment and retention of staff.^[5]

The evidence presented in this dashboard demonstrates the diversity of rural Scotland, with particular differences between accessible mainland rural areas and remote rural and island communities. For Scotland’s remote rural and island areas, many of which are sparsely populated, challenges such as distance from main centres of population, access to key services and population change are particularly significant.

In many respects the economy of rural Scotland is both similar to, and tightly integrated with, the economy of urban Scotland.^[6] However distinct differences remain, often related to distance from and scarcity of services. The rural economy has undergone significant structural change over the past twenty years.

As outlined above, the rural economy is subject to persistent, key challenges including recruitment and retention of staff, digital connectivity and access to superfast broadband, and fuel costs. The agriculture, forestry and fishing sector accounts for 5% of the rural economy,^[7] so wider changes in terms of agricultural and land reform, and the transition to net zero, will impact people living and working in these sectors in rural Scotland.

1.2 Policy context

The Scottish Government has committed to addressing the climate emergency through a Just Transition, and to working with communities, business, industry and people across Scotland to meet net zero by 2045.^[8]

Alongside this, the Scottish Government’s Agricultural Reform Programme sets out the goal for Scotland to become a global leader in sustainable and regenerative agriculture, whilst its Environment Strategy sets out a long-term vision to protect and restore Scotland’s natural environment.

The Scottish Government’s Housing to 2040 strategy sets out an ambition for everyone to have a safe, good quality and affordable home that meets their needs in the place they want to be. This includes rural and island areas.

This year, the Scottish Government committed to publishing a Rural Delivery Plan showing how it is delivering for rural Scotland, by 2026.^[9] In addition to policies on agriculture, land reform, marine, and the National Islands Plan, the Rural Delivery Plan will cover areas such as transport, housing, social justice, repopulation, digital connectivity and economic development.

Scotland’s National Performance Framework includes 11 National Outcomes, in relation to: Children and Young People; Communities; Culture; Economy; Education; Environment; Fair Work and Business; Health; Human Rights; International; and Poverty. Each slide of the Rural Scotland Data Dashboard notes which National Outcome the topic covered broadly aligns to.

Lastly, the Scottish Government’s 2023 policy prospectus sets out three missions:

1. Equality: Tackling poverty and protecting people from harm

2. Opportunity: A fair, green and growing economy

3. Community: Prioritising our public services

The Rural Scotland Data Dashboard is designed to support and inform policy development to achieve these broader aims.

1.3 Wider trends

This section sets out wider trends that can be identified in the data presented as part of the Rural Scotland Data Dashboard, including:

Population trends

The population of rural Scotland continues to grow at a faster rate than the rest of Scotland, driven largely by an increase in accessible rural areas.

However, the rural population as a whole is projected to decline over the next 20 years, particularly in island and remote rural areas. Scotland’s overall population is ageing. Over a quarter (27%) of the population of remote rural areas is now aged 65 and over. This will have an impact on rural economies and service provision in remote rural areas.

Variation between rural areas

The evidence points to a lack of progress in economic terms in remote rural areas, and islands, compared to accessible rural and urban areas.

More specifically, there is a notable difference between accessible rural areas and remote small towns. This trend can be seen across a number of areas including economic and health data.

2.1 Population trends

In 2022, the population of Scotland was estimated to be 5.4 million.^[10]

The population of rural Scotland continues to grow at a faster rate than the rest of Scotland, driven by an increase in accessible rural areas, mainly due to inward migration.^[11] However, the population of remote rural areas is in decline.

In 2021, 12% of Scottish population was estimated to live in accessible rural areas and 5% in remote rural areas. A further 9% were estimated to live in accessible small towns and 3% in remote small towns. The majority (72%) live in urban areas (NRS, 2021).

In the 10 years between 2011 and 2021, the population of accessible rural areas grew the most (11%), whilst the population of remote small towns showed the biggest decline (4%) (NRS, 2021).

However, the population of rural areas is projected to decline over the next 20 years. In island and remote rural areas the population is already in steady decline, and is projected to drop by 12% between 2018 and 2043.^[12]

Scotland’s population as a whole is ageing. Over a quarter (27%) of the population of remote rural areas is now aged 65 and over, compared to 16% in large urban areas. Rural areas have a lower percentage of people aged 16-44 years old, with 31% for accessible rural areas compared to 43% in large urban areas.^[13] This will have an impact on rural economies and service provision in remote rural areas.

On average, people in cities tend to be younger and people in rural areas tend to be older. Remote rural areas had the highest median age at 51 years, whereas large urban areas had the lowest median age at 38 years.^[14] Rural Scotland has a higher percentage of ‘older smaller’ households, where one or both adults are of pensionable age.

Recent analysis indicates that Scotland has some of the most sparsely populated regions in Europe, and these areas face particular demographic challenges including low birth rates (SRUC, 2023 and JHI, 2018).

This report also highlights the changing age profile of Scotland’s rural and island populations, with trends including declining school age populations and increasing retirement age populations in remote rural mainland, very remote rural mainland and island areas (SRUC, 2023). In line with this, population projections by National Records of Scotland show the highest percentage reduction in children and working age population, and the highest increase in pensionable age population, in islands and remote rural areas.^[15]

2.2 Variation between rural areas

The Rural Scotland Data Dashboard also points to differing challenges in remote rural and island areas, in comparison with accessible rural and urban areas. This can be seen in economic terms, for example:

• Gross Value Added (GVA) has increased at a slower rates in islands and remote rural areas than elsewhere in Scotland over the last two decades.
• There is a higher proportion of higher earners in accessible rural areas (32%) than in remote rural areas (23%).
• Median gross annual pay for all full-time employees is higher in accessible rural areas than in remote rural areas.
• From October to December 2023 it is estimated that almost half (47%) of island households will be in fuel poverty, compared to a third (33%) of mainland households.

It can also be seen in terms of transport, housing and education, for example:

• Remote rural and island areas have a significantly higher percentage of empty and second homes than urban areas.
• Distances to key services, including GPs, post offices and secondary schools, are longer in remote rural mainland areas than in accessible rural areas and the rest of Scotland.
• The highest percentage of 16-19 year olds participating in education is in accessible rural areas, with the lowest in remote small towns.

This is line with wider research. For example, a 2023 report by Scotland’s Rural College found that very remote rural mainland areas, as well as islands, are facing some of the most significant demographic challenges, including: slow population growth; ageing populations; fewer children; high levels of vacant and second home ownership, and affordable housing issues.^[16]

There is also a notable difference between accessible rural areas and remote small towns. This trend can be seen across a number of areas including the economy and education. For example:

• The proportion of the working age population claiming Universal Credit is highest in remote small towns (21%), compared to 9% in accessible rural areas and 14% across Scotland as a whole.
• Primary school pupils in accessible rural areas show higher rates of achievement in literacy than those in remote rural areas.

One area in which this trend is reversed, however, is health. For example, satisfaction with local health services is highest in remote rural areas, which also have the highest General Practitioner to patient ratio. The experiences of both those receiving care, and unpaid carers, are also better in remote rural areas.

The following sections bring together a range of data from the Rural Scotland Data Dashboard, focusing on successes and challenges, followed by a Conclusion and Recommendations based on these findings.