Rural Scotland Data Dashboard: Overview

4. Conclusions

This report has outlined the main successes and challenges that can be identified from the Rural Scotland Data Dashboard and situated this work in relation to the wider policy context and Scottish Government commitments.

The main conclusions are:

• The Rural Scotland Data Dashboard demonstrates the diversity of Scotland’s rural, remote and island communities, and the need to consider this diversity in designing and delivering policy.
• The overall population of rural Scotland is projected to decline over the next 20 years. Demographic change is also expected to result in a decline in the school age population and an increase in the retirement age population. This trend presents a future challenge for rural Scotland, particularly in terms of the long-term sustainability of remote rural and island communities.
• The dashboard points to disparities between remote, island and accessible rural areas. This ranges from economic growth, to higher rates of fuel poverty. These issues will be compounded by the population trends referenced above.
• The dashboard provides evidence of successes in rural Scotland, particularly in terms of employment and economic activity, and health. However, it also points to a range of challenges, in line with long-term, persistent issues such as access to affordable housing, travel distances and transport, and fuel poverty.
• Relative poverty has increased in rural Scotland over the last decade. Whilst it has been long understood that people in rural areas, particularly remote rural and island communities, face higher costs of living, the drivers for this increase should be examined through further research.

This report has summarised the main successes and challenges that can be identified from the Rural Scotland Data Dashboard, which presents data on a range of issues that impact people living and working in rural Scotland.

As the data outlined above demonstrates, rural and island communities across Scotland are incredibly diverse and face distinct challenges, from persistent challenges such as affordable housing, transport and fuel costs, to newer challenges such as a changing climate and the transition to net zero. In addition to this, EU exit, the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and cost of living crisis have had significant impacts across rural and island Scotland, with rural communities and businesses facing specific challenges related to rising fuel prices and retention of staff.

4.2 Successes

The dashboard provides evidence of successes in rural Scotland, particularly in terms of employment and economic activity, and health:

• Employment and economic activity rates are higher in rural areas;
• Confidence in the economic outlook for Scotland has increased amongst rural businesses, who are taking action to meet net zero;
• Across Scotland, the highest number of secondary school leavers with a positive destination was in accessible rural and remote rural areas;
• Both life expectancy and healthy life expectancy are higher in rural Scotland than in urban areas. They are highest in remote rural areas;
• Overall, satisfaction with local health services is relatively high across rural and remote rural areas, and GP to patient ratios are higher in rural Scotland;
• Primary and secondary school pupils in rural and remote rural areas have healthier diets than those in urban areas, and perceptions of general health among school pupils are slightly higher in accessible rural areas;
• The experiences of both those receiving care and unpaid carers are better in remote rural areas than elsewhere in Scotland.

4.3 Challenges

The dashboard also provides evidence of challenges in rural Scotland, in line with long-term, persistent challenges such as access to affordable housing, travel distances and accessible transport, and fuel poverty:

• Relative poverty has increased in rural Scotland over the last decade.
• Rural properties are, on average, less energy efficient than urban ones, and rates of fuel poverty are estimated to be particularly high in islands;
• Satisfaction with public services is lower in rural areas;
• House prices have risen across rural Scotland since 2019, particularly in accessible rural areas;
• Almost all homes in Scotland can get some broadband access, however the speed and quality is significantly lower in some rural areas;
• Remote rural areas, including islands, have a significantly higher percentage of empty dwellings and second homes than other areas of Scotland;
• Parents and carers in rural areas are less likely to use all of their 1,140 funded hours, and more likely to have experienced difficulties affording childcare;
• There is a higher reliance on cars in rural areas, and lower use of public transport, with longer journey times to key services;
• Satisfaction among island residents with mainland and inter-island ferry services is relatively low, particularly in terms of reliability and fares.

Significantly, relative poverty has increased in rural Scotland over the last decade. Whilst it has been long understood that people in rural areas, particularly remote rural and island communities, face higher costs of living, the drivers for this increase should be examined through further research.

Population decline in parts of rural Scotland will continue to present challenges. The population of rural Scotland continues to grow at a faster rate than the rest of Scotland, driven by an increase in accessible rural areas. However, the population of rural areas is projected to decline over the next 20 years. In island and remote rural areas the population is already in steady decline.

Scotland’s population as a whole is ageing. A larger proportion of the population of remote rural areas is now aged 65 and over, compared to urban areas. Rural areas also have a lower percentage of people aged 16-44 years old.

Wider analysis highlights the changing age profile of Scotland’s rural and island populations, with trends including declining school age populations and increasing retirement age populations in remote rural mainland areas, very remote rural mainland areas, and island areas (SRUC, 2023). These population changes present future challenges for rural Scotland, particularly for islands and remote rural areas, and will have long-term implications for the sustainability of rural communities.

4.3 Variation between rural areas

The Rural Scotland Data Dashboard also points to variation between remote rural and island areas and accessible rural areas. These variations will be compounded by the population trends identified above.

This variation can be seen in economic terms, from slower GVA growth in islands and remote rural areas, to higher median gross annual pay in accessible rural areas. It can also be seen in a number of other areas. For example, remote rural and island areas have a significantly higher percentage of empty and second homes; distances to key services are longer in remote rural mainland areas; and island households have higher rates of fuel poverty than mainland households.

There is also a notable difference between accessible rural areas and remote small towns. This trend can be seen, for example, in economic and education data: the proportion of the working age population claiming Universal Credit is highest in remote small towns, and primary school pupils in accessible rural areas show higher rates of achievement in literacy than those in remote rural areas. One area in which this trend is reversed, however, is health.

In summary, the Rural Scotland Data Dashboard demonstrates the diversity of Scotland’s rural, remote rural and island communities, and the need to consider both areas of progress and persistent issues in the context of recent challenges – such as the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and the cost of living crisis – and future challenges, from population change to enabling a Just Transition.