Safer Communities and Justice Statistics Monthly Data Report : June 2024

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Scottish Government prison population modelling

A full report on the projected prison population up to the end of October 2024 was published on 7^th June. It included the fourth projections to be published since 2023, and the main aim was to help with planning and policy development.

Forward projections from May to October 2024 were produced using ‘microsimulation’ scenario modelling which simulates prison arrivals and departures to help estimate the number of individuals in prison on a particular date in the future. This modelling performs well, when using accurate assumptions, but there is nevertheless uncertainty in the projections which increases the further into the future the projection extends.

On 30^th April 2024, the overall prison population in Scotland was around 8,250, while the remand and sentenced populations were around 2,250 and 6,000, respectively. The latest prison population projections modelling to October 2024 suggests that:

• The average daily prison population could be between 7,650 and 9,150 in October 2024. Modelling indicates it is likely that the overall prison population will increase between May and the end of October 2024.
• The average daily remand population could be between 1,100 and 3,050 in October 2024. Modelling indicates it is likely that the remand population will decrease between May and the end of October 2024.
• The average daily sentenced population could be between 5,950 and 6,700 in October 2024. Modelling indicates it is highly likely that the sentenced population will increase between May and the end of October 2024.

Future prison population estimates

The chart below shows the latest prison population projections for May to October 2024. It includes 95% confidence intervals for all scenario variants. The actual population is shown as a series of black points.