Safer Communities and Justice Statistics Monthly Data Report : March 2024

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Scottish prison population modelling

A full report on the projected prison population up to the end of June 2024 was published on 13^th February. It included the third issue of projections to be published, the main aim of which is to help with planning and policy development.

Forward projections from January to June 2024 were produced using ‘microsimulation’ scenario modelling which simulates prison arrivals and departures to help estimate the number of individuals in prison on a particular date in the future. This modelling performs well, when using accurate assumptions, but there is nevertheless uncertainty in the projections which increases with time.

The projections indicate that:

• The overall prison population in Scotland is most likely to either remain stable or rise slightly between January and June 2024, with a projected range of between 7,350 and 8,450 for the average daily prison population in June 2024. On 22^nd February 2024, the prison population was around 7,950.
• It is most likely that the remand population will remain stable between January and June 2024. If it decreases because of enhanced monthly case conclusions, this may contribute to an increased sentenced population as more individuals transition from remand.
• It is most likely that the sentenced population will either remain stable or rise slightly; it may rise if the overall rate of transition from remand to the sentenced population increases or if there is a greater inflow of individuals directly from the community into the sentenced population.

Future prison population estimates

The chart below shows the latest prison population projections for January to June 2024. It includes 50%, 75% and 95% confidence intervals for all scenario variants. The actual population is shown as a series of black points.