Salary thresholds and an 'Australian-style' points-based immigration system: our response
Our response to the Migration Advisory Committee's call for evidence on salary thresholds and an 'Australian-style' points-based immigration system.
Footnotes
1 “The contribution of EEA citizens to Scotland: response to the Migration Advisory Committee call for evidence”, available at https://www.gov.scot/publications/contribution-eea-citizens-scotland-scottish-governments-response-migration-advisory-committee-9781788514057/pages/1/
2 “Scotland’s population needs and migration policy: discussion paper”, available at https://www.gov.scot/publications/scotlands-population-needs-migration-policy
3 “Non-UK nationals in Scotland’s Workforce”: Statistics from the Annual Population Survey, 2018, available at https://www2.gov.scot/Resource/0054/00547429.pdf
4 As above.
5 As above.
6 Expert Advisory Group on Population and Migration’s report “UK Immigration Policy After Leaving the EU”, available at https://www.gov.scot/publications/uk-immigration-policy-leaving-eu-impacts-scotlands-economy-population-society/
7 Employer Skills Survey, 2017, available at https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/employer-skills-survey-2017-scotland-toolkit
8 “Brexit: What’s at Stake for Businesses”, available at https://www.gov.scot/publications/brexit-whats-stake-businesses/
9 https://onescotland.org/campaigns/we-are-scotland/
10 Skills Development Scotland response to the MAC call for evidence, 2019
11 Annual Population Survey, April 2017 to March 2018
12 “Non-UK nationals in Scotland’s Workforce”: Statistics from the Annual Population Survey, 2018, available at https://www2.gov.scot/Resource/0054/00547429.pdf
13 As above.
14 “Non-UK nationals in Scotland’s Workforce”: Statistics from the Annual Population Survey, 2018, available at https://www2.gov.scot/Resource/0054/00547429.pdf
15 There are no separate estimates for non-EU nationals employed in Creative industries, Food and drink, Life sciences and energy.
16 As above.
17 As above.
18 As above.
19 “EU workers in Scotland’s social care workforce”, 2018, available at https://www.gov.scot/publications/contribution-non-uk-eu-workers-social-care-workforce-scotland/pages/2/
20 “Non-UK nationals in Scotland’s Workforce”: Statistics from the Annual Population Survey, 2018, available at https://www2.gov.scot/Resource/0054/00547429.pdf
21 “Scottish Social Service Sector: Report on 2017 Workforce Data”, 2017, available at https://data.sssc.uk.com/images/WDR/WDR2017.pdf
22 Available at https://www.audit-scotland.gov.uk/uploads/docs/report/2017/nr_170209_nhs_workforce.pdf
23 Association of British Orchestras and International Artist Managers’ Association, Points-based System for Migrant Workers - Briefing Paper for DCMS
24 Growth sector statistics, Scottish Government, 2017, available at https://www2.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Business/Publications/GrowthSectors/Database
25 Association of British Orchestras and International Artist Managers’ Association, Points-based System for Migrant Workers - Briefing Paper for DCMS
26 Growth sector statistics, Scottish Government, 2017, available at https://www2.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Business/Publications/GrowthSectors/Database
27 “Tourism in Scotland: the economic contribution of the sector”, 2018, available at https://www.gov.scot/publications/tourism-scotland-economic-contribution-sector/
28 MAC Review of the Shortage Occupation List, 2019, available at https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/full-review-of-the-shortage-occupation-list-may-2019
29 Scottish Annual Business Statistics 2017, available at https://www2.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Business/SABS
30 “Scotland’s Digital Technologies: Summary Report 2019”, available at https://www.skillsdevelopmentscotland.co.uk/media/43306/scotlands-digital-technologies-summary-report.pdf
31 As above.
32 As above.
33 Annual Population Survey, 2016 (January to December)
34 ScotlandIS Scottish Technology Industry Survey 2017, available at https://www.scotlandis.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/scottish-tech-industry-survey-2017.pdf
35 Scottish Government, Digital Economy Business Survey 2017, available at https://www.gov.scot/publications/digital-economy-business-survey-2017/
36 Ekosgen, Scotland's Digital Technologies: Research & Analysis Report 2017, available at http://www.ekosgen.co.uk/docs/093_028__scotlandsdigitaltechnologiesresearchandanalysisreport_1500653090.pdf
37 Export Statistics Scotland, 2017.
38 Business Enterprise Research and Development Scotland, 2017 available at https://www2.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Business/RD/BERDreport17
39 Business Register and Employment Survey, 2018
40 Scottish Annual Business Survey
41 Business Register and Employment Survey, 2018
42 Scottish Annual Business Survey 2018
43 Office of National Statistics (ONS) 2018, Regional gross value added (balanced), UK: 1998 to 2017
44 Business Register and Employment Survey, 2017
45 Annual Population Survey, 2017
46 Financial Services Skills Investment Plan 2016, available at https://www.skillsdevelopmentscotland.co.uk/media/42492/financial-services-sip-nov-2016.pdf
47 Rural Scotland: key facts 2018, available at https://www.gov.scot/publications/rural-scotland-key-facts-2018/
48 Rural Scotland: key facts 2018, available at https://www.gov.scot/publications/rural-scotland-key-facts-2018/
49 Federation of Small Businesses, Evidence to the Scottish Affairs Select Committee Inquiry on Immigration and Scotland 2017
50 Agricultural Census 2018, available at www.gov.scot/stats/bulletins/01320
51 Scottish Government (2011) Rural Scotland Key Facts 2011. National Statistics: http://www.gov.scot/Publications/2011/09/29133747/4
52 SEFARI (Scottish Environment, Food and Agriculture Research Institutes), “The Fruits of Their Labour: Seasonal farm workers in Scottish agriculture,” available at: https://sefari.scot/research/the-fruits-of-their-labour-seasonal-farm-workers-in-scottish-agriculture
53 Agricultural Census 2018, available at www.gov.scot/stats/bulletins/01320
54 See NFU Scotland press release, February 2018: https://www.nfus.org.uk/news/news/nfu-scotlands-seasonal-workers-survey-identifies-labour-shortage-fears
55 Royal Association of British Dairy Farmers EU Labour Survey 2014, available at: http://www.rabdf.co.uk/labour/
56 Quality Meat Scotland 2017, “Importance of Migrant Labour to Scottish Red Meat Industry:” available at http://www.qmscotland.co.uk/news/importance-migrant-labour-scottish-red-meat-industry
57 Food Standards Scotland, Service Provider, 2018
58 “How leaving the EU will potentially impact negatively on Scotland’s rural economy”, 2019, available at https://www.gov.scot/publications/how-leaving-the-eu-will-potentially-impact-negatively-on-scotlands-rural-economy/
59 “Quality Meat Scotland 2017 Migrant labour and the Scottish red meat sector - a Brexit discussion paper”, Brexit Briefing Paper 2, 2017, available at http://www.qmscotland.co.uk/sites/default/files/brexit_migrant_labour_discussion_paper_pdf_final.pdf
60 Seafood Scotland website: http://www.seafoodscotland.org/en/responsible-sourcing/overview-of-the-seafood-industry/processing.html
61 Employment in Scotland Seafood Processing Sector: 2016. Marine Analytical Unit, Marine Scotland
62 Seafish (2016) Seafood Processing Industry Report 2016, available at http://www.seafish.org/media/publications/2016_Seafood_Processing_Industry_Report.pdf
63 Employment in Scotland Seafood Processing Sector: 2016. Marine Analytical Unit, Marine Scotland
64 Sea Fisheries Employment survey available at https://www.gov.scot/publications/scottish-sea-fisheries-employment-2015/
65 Scottish Government (2016) Scottish Sea Fisheries Employment 2015, Marine Scotland Science, Marine Analytical Unit, available at http://www.gov.scot/Resource/0050/00507777.pdf
66 Scottish Government (2016) Scottish Sea Fisheries Employment 2015, Marine Scotland Science, Marine Analytical Unit, available at http://www.gov.scot/Resource/0050/00507777.pdf
67 Employment in Scotland Seafood Processing Sector: 2016. Marine Analytical Unit, Marine Scotland
68 Annual Population Survey, 2017
69 Employer Skills Survey, 2017
70 Times Higher Education World University Rankings 2019, available at https://www.timeshighereducation.com/
71 Contribution of Universities to the Scottish Economy; Biggar Economics for Universities Scotland, 2015
72 HESA Staff data, 2018, available at https://www.hesa.ac.uk/data-and-analysis/staff/table-1
73 HESA Staff data, SG analysis
74 HESA Staff data, 2018, available at https://www.hesa.ac.uk/data-and-analysis/sb252/figure-8
75 UK National Agency for Erasmus+ (Feb 2019), “2014-2017 Higher Education mobility statistics”, available at https://www.erasmusplus.org.uk/statistics.
76 “Priorities for a future skills-based immigration system”, Russell Group Briefing, 2019, available at https://russellgroup.ac.uk/media/5784/future-immigration-system-russell-group-briefing-july-2019.pdf
77 As above.
78 Universities and Colleges Employers Association (2018), ‘UCEA response to MAC report: Responding to recommendations of most concern to the higher education sector – November 2018’. Taken from https://royalsociety.org/-/media/policy/Publications/2019/28-05-19-30k-salary-immigration-threshold-explainer.pdf
79 Universities and Colleges Employers Association (2018), ‘UCEA response to MAC report: Responding to recommendations of most concern to the higher education sector – November 2018’. Taken from https://royalsociety.org/-/media/policy/Publications/2019/28-05-19-30k-salary-immigration-threshold-explainer.pdf
80 Sir John Kingman (2018), ‘Speech at the Royal Society ‘Research culture: changing expectations’ conference – 30 October 2018’.
81 https://www.gov.scot/publications/sectoral-impact-analysis-brexit-readiness-assessment/
82 Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings 2018
83 As above.
84 Research carried out by Scottish Care over the last four years for both the care at home, housing support services and the care home sector has consistently highlighted current recruitment and retention challenges in the social care sector in Scotland:
- 77% of care home providers indicated that they are having greater difficulty in recruitment staff in 2018 than in previous years, with annual turnover of 24.5% and a substantial increase in the use of agency staff (by over two thirds of organisations);
- An estimated 6 to 8% of the care home workforce originated from the EU and a further 6% from other countries. Brexit is already having a significant impact on this labour market.
- The care at home and housing support research indicated similar challenges: 9 out of 10 organisations surveyed had vacancies and 89% their difficulty filling support worker posts.
- 9.6% - 12% of the workforce were described as coming from the EEA and 1.7% from outwith Europe. The impact of Brexit upon both further recruitment for support workers and the existing workforce is significant, and particularly given the high vacancy rates. In total over a third (35%) of the care at home and housing support workforce is replaced each year.
85 Scottish Government, Local Government Employment, June 2019 - https://www2.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Labour-Market/PublicSectorEmployment/LAPSE
86 Available from www.makeuk.org/Services/Brexit
87 A Blueprint for 2020: The expansion of early learning and childcare in Scotland - https://www.gov.scot/publications/blueprint-2020-expansion-early-learning-childcare-scotland-quality-action-plan/
88 Many areas of Scotland are facing population decline:
- North Ayrshire is expected to see a 2.1% decrease by 2026 (fourth highest rate of decline behind the Western Isles, Inverclyde, and Argyll and Bute), with a disproportionate decrease in the working age population compared to retirement age.
- In 1998-2018, Highland’s natural rate of population change declined by -3,410, and increased solely due to inward migration. Over the next 10 years, the population is projected to decrease by 1.2% due to natural change, and therefore inward migration is essential.
- Highland also face significant demographic challenges, with the largest decrease in the 25 to 44 age group (-10.9%) and largest increase in the 75+ age group (+57.4%) – with an associated increase in demand for health and social care.
- Similar is seen in other areas such as the Western Isles and Shetland, and the Highlands and Islands as a whole.
89 Salary Threshold and Points-Based Migration System: Royal Society of Edinburgh Response, 2019 - https://www.rse.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/11/AP19-12.pdf
90 Expert Advisory Group on Migration and Population Report for Scottish Government; Feb 2019, available at https://www.gov.scot/publications/uk-immigration-policy-leaving-eu-impacts-scotlands-economy-population-society/
91 The proposed £30,000 salary threshold relates to actual salary as opposed to “full-time equivalent” and cannot be pro-rated. Part-time workers from overseas looking to be employed in the UK would therefore be particularly impacted. This would clearly have a disproportionate impact on women looking to immigrate to the UK.
92 Expert Advisory Group on Migration and Population Report for Scottish Government; Feb 2019
93 Migration Advisory Committee, Full review of the Shortage Occupation List, p335 https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/806331/28_05_2019_Full_Review_SOL_Final_Report_1159.pdf
95 The Russell Group’s 24 members comprise the Universities of: Birmingham, Bristol, Cambridge, Cardiff, Durham, Edinburgh, Exeter, Glasgow, Imperial College London, King’s Collect London, Leeds, Liverpool, London School of Economics and Political Science, Manchester, Newcastle, Nottingham, Oxford, Queen Mary University of London, Queen’s Belfast, Sheffield, Southampton, University College London, Warwick, and York. https://russellgroup.ac.uk/about/our-universities/
96 The Russell Group response to the MAC; Nov 19 - https://russellgroup.ac.uk/policy/policy-documents/mac-response-nov-19/
97 EY analysed HESA data in March 2019, with a new dataset analysed by the Russell Group in October 2019.
98 At the experienced worker rate
99 As per the MAC’s recommendations, caps on skilled (tier 2) labour should be removed. Having caps on skilled labour risks minimum salary thresholds increasing in months where the quota for skilled workers has been met. Our analysis throughout assumes these caps will be removed.
100 Home Office Immigration rule changes September 2019
101 “If settlement thresholds are to be retained, they should be lowered commensurate with average national pay progression from new, lower minimum salary thresholds for entry”
102 The average EU part-time employee at RG universities works 0.5 of a full-time equivalent role.
103 Universities will employ two occupation types under activity SOC (231) ‘Teaching and Educational Professionals’: ‘senior professionals of educational establishments’ (SOC 2317), with an experienced threshold of £40,200, and ‘higher education and teaching professionals’ (SOC 2311), with an experienced threshold of £33,000. HESA data used for this response is not broken down to these ‘4-digit’ levels. However, universities reported they employ proportionally negligible numbers of international ‘senior professionals of educational establishments’ in activity SOC 231. Our analysis therefore assumes all occupations in SOC 231 are higher education and teaching professionals.
104 Based on recruitment data provided by HESA for the academic years 16/17 and 17/18.
105 Our analysis looked at numbers of those who had been recruited at the end of study at a UK university and under the age of 26 at the point of application who earned less than experienced worker salary thresholds, but above the new entrant threshold. For teaching and education professionals, we used the higher education teaching professional (SOC code 2311) new entrant threshold of £26,500. As HESA salary data is provided to the nearest thousand, we estimated that those in the £26,000-£27,000 bracket were evenly split between those earning less and greater than £26,500.
106 techUK Report: Tech SMEs and no deal Brexit, 2019 -https://www.techuk.org/insights/reports/item/16122-techuk-report-tech-smes-and-no-deal-brexit
107 TechUK Report: the UK Digital Sectors After Brexit, 2017 - https://www.techuk.org/insights/news/item/10086-the-uk-digital-sectors-after-brexit
108 As above.
109 Resolution Foundation: A rising tide lifts all boats? 2017 - https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/app/uploads/2017/07/A-rising-tide-lifts-all-boats.pdf
110 MAC Report: EEA Migration in the UK, 2018 - https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/741926/Final_EEA_report.PDF
111 UKGovernment statistics: Why do people come to the UK to Work, 2019 - https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/immigration-statistics-year-ending-june-2019/why-do-people-come-to-the-uk-to-work
112 GLA Economics: Potential impacts of Immigration Policies based on skills and salary thresholds in London, 2019 –
https://www.london.gov.uk/sites/default/files/executive-summary-cin58-59.pdf
113 Tech Nation: Annual Report – Bristol, 2018 – https://technation.io/insights/report-2018/bristol/
114 Home Office : Technical Paper to accompany ‘the UK’s future skills-based immigration system’ economic appraisal: Annex B – 2018
115 ONS: Average weekly earnings in Great Britain: October 2019 – https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/averageweeklyearningsingreatbritain/october2019
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Email: Mairi.Cameron@gov.scot
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