Scotland 2045: fourth National Planning Framework - draft: integrated impact assessment - environmental report

4.0 Significant Environmental Effects of the Spatial Strategy and National Developments

4.1 Introduction

4.1.1 NPF4 sets out an approach to planning and development which aims to achieve a net zero, sustainable Scotland by 2045. The amended Town and Country Planning (Scotland) Act 1997 requires that the National Planning Framework must contribute to a series of 6 outcomes: improving the health and wellbeing of our people; increasing the population of rural areas; meeting housing needs (particularly of elderly and disabled); improving equality and eliminating discrimination; meeting targets for emissions of GHG; and securing positive effects for biodiversity.

4.1.2 The main components of the NPF4 include:

• Spatial strategy: This includes priorities, spatial principles and action areas;
• 18 proposed national developments to support the spatial strategy;
• Policies for the development and use of land;
• Minimum All-Tenure Housing Land Requirements (MATHLR) for each planning authority in Scotland. This is to meet the requirement of Section 3A(3)(d) of the Town and Country Planning (Scotland) Act 1997, as amended, and is discussed further in section 5 of this report.

4.2 Environmental Effects of the Draft Spatial Strategy and Proposed National Developments

4.2.1 This section considers the likely significant environmental effects arising from the draft spatial strategy and the proposed national developments. A summary assessment of the national planning policies is set out in Section 5. A summary of the overall cumulative and synergistic effects arising from the NPF4 as a whole is set out in Section 6. A more detailed assessment of the proposed national developments is included in Appendix D, and an assessment of the alternative national developments (those suggestions received by the Scottish Government with potential, but not contributing to, the proposed national developments in the draft NPF4) is located in Appendix E.

Introduction to the Spatial Strategy

4.2.2 The draft spatial strategy includes priorities, spatial principles and action areas and is to be used to guide the preparation of regional spatial strategies, local development plans and local place plans. The strategy will also be relevant to wider policies and strategies relating to land use.

4.2.3 The spatial principles are: Compact growth; Local living; Balanced development; Conserving and recycling assets; Urban and rural synergy; Just transition.

4.2.4 Five action areas are identified: North and west coastal innovation; Northern revitalisation; North east transition; Southern sustainability; and Central urban transformation.

4.2.5 The spatial strategy is intended to be a shared vision that guides future development in a way that reflects the overarching spatial principles, with each part of Scotland contributing to realising the shared vision. Each part of Scotland can be planned and developed to create:

• Sustainable places, where emissions are reduced, and biodiversity is restored and better connected:
• Liveable places, where people can live better, healthier lives.
• This is supported by six national developments: Central Scotland Green Network, National Walking: Cycling and Wheeling Network: Urban Mass/Rapid Transit networks: Urban Sustainable, Blue and Green Drainage Solutions; Circular Economy Material Management Facilities; and Digital Fibre Network
• Productive places, where Scotland can have a greener, fairer and more inclusive wellbeing economy.
• This supported by seven national developments including the Islands Hub for Net Zero; Industrial Green Transition Zones; Pumped Hydro Storage; Hunterston Strategic Asset; Chapelcross Power Station Redevelopment; Strategic Renewable Electricity Generation and Transmission Infrastructure; and High Speed Rail
• Distinctive places, where assets are recognised and worked with.
• This is supported by five national developments including Clyde Mission; Aberdeen Harbour; Dundee Waterfront; Edinburgh Waterfront; and Stranraer Gateway.

4.2.6 This section is structured as follows: Firstly, the priorities of each of the 4 NPF4 / spatial strategy themes and their reasons for selection are given. This is followed by an assessment of the environmental effects of each spatial strategy theme, and their respective national developments. Finally, an assessment of each action area allows spatial cumulative impacts to be considered.

Sustainable Places

4.2.7 Sustainable places aims to achieve net zero, nature-positive places which are more resilient to the impacts of climate change and supports the recovery and restoration of the natural environment.

Preferred Approach: Reason for Selection

Maximise new economic and wellbeing opportunities from a just transition to a net zero, nature-positive economy.

This supports multiple statutory outcomes for the NPF:

• securing positive effects for biodiversity;
• improving the health and wellbeing of our people;
• meeting targets for the reduction of emissions of greenhouse gases; and
• improving equality and eliminating discrimination.

Encourage low and zero carbon design

This supports the NPF statutory outcome - meeting targets for the reduction of emissions of greenhouse gases

Encourage energy efficiency

This supports the NPF statutory outcome - meeting targets for the reduction of emissions of greenhouse gases

Reduce the need to travel unsustainably

This supports the following NPF statutory outcomes:

• meeting targets for the reduction of emissions of greenhouse gases; and
• improving the health and wellbeing of our people

Diversify and expand renewable energy generation

This supports the NPF statutory outcome - meeting targets for the reduction of emissions of greenhouse gases and will contribute to meeting targets for renewable energy generation

Secure positive effects for biodiversity, creating and strengthening nature networks and investing in nature-based solutions to support nature recovery and create multiple benefits for our natural capital, health, wellbeing, resilience and jobs.

This supports the following NPF statutory outcomes:

• securing positive effects for biodiversity; and
• improving the health and wellbeing of our people; and
• meeting targets for the reduction of emissions of greenhouse gases

Encourage sustainable design and use of resources including circular economy approaches to construction and development.

This supports the NPF statutory outcome - meeting targets for the reduction of emissions of greenhouse gases.

National Developments

N/A

Summary of Effects – Sustainable Places

4.2.8 The strategy focus on achieving net zero emissions and increasing resilience to the impacts of climate change will have significantly positive effects on climatic factors objectives.

4.2.9 The transport sector is one of the largest sources of emissions in Scotland and measures which reduce the need to travel unsustainably will contribute to meeting statutory emissions reductions targets and reduce atmospheric pollutants, with positive impacts for air quality and associated benefits for human health and biodiversity. Additional secondary positive effects on human health may arise where there is an uptake in active travel leading to increased physical activity.

4.2.10 Similarly, the energy sector is also a large source of emissions in Scotland. Emission reductions in this sector could therefore make a significant contribution towards meeting net zero targets. Diversifying and expanding renewable energy generation will support wider climate change objectives and emissions reductions targets, and ensure a broad mix of technologies that will help improve security and flexibility of supply. Furthermore, reducing the overall demand for electricity and energy within the buildings and industry sector by improving the energy efficiency of both domestic and non-domestic buildings will further contribute towards reducing emissions. Improvements to energy efficiency in domestic buildings may have positive effects for population and human health through contributing to reducing to fuel poverty.

4.2.11 There is, however, potential for negative effects on marine and terrestrial biodiversity, landscape, soils, water and cultural heritage associated with construction and operation of renewable energy developments, and improvements of infrastructure and buildings. This will require consideration at plan and project consenting stages to identify and mitigate any potentially significant effects.

4.2.12 Significant long-term positive effects on biodiversity may arise through a focus on strengthening nature networks and investing in nature-based solutions. This may lead to secondary benefits on air quality, soils and water through reduced flood risk and improved water quality. Where a focus on supporting the recovery and restoration of the natural environment leads to increased woodland and forestry, and restoration of peat, positive effects on climate factors may arise through increased carbon sequestration contributing to emissions reductions. Nature based solutions have an important role in climate change adaptation by, for example, reducing flood risk.

4.2.13 Positive effects on both natural and built material assets are likely to arise through a focus on sustainable design and use of resources.

Liveable Places

4.2.14 This section aims for future places, homes and neighbourhoods to be better, healthier and more vibrant places to live with communities that are inclusive, empowered, resilient and safe.

Preferred Strategy: Reason for Selection

Address longstanding inequality and eliminate discrimination

This supports the NPF statutory outcome of improving equality and eliminating discrimination.

Create the conditions for lifelong health and wellbeing for all, restore biodiversity and strengthen our future resilience

This supports the NPF statutory outcomes of:

• improving the health and wellbeing of our people; and
• securing positive effects for biodiversity.

Create places with good quality homes

This supports the NPF statutory outcome of:

• meeting the housing needs of people living in Scotland including, in particular, the housing needs for older people and disabled people.

This will also help to ensure housing targets, in the form of housing land requirements, are met.

Applying the concept of 20 minute neighbourhoods

By contributing to the creation of walkable, liveable and thriving places that provide communities with local access to the facilities and services needed, applying the 20 minute neighbourhood concept can support the NPF statutory outcomes:

• improving the health and wellbeing of people living in Scotland; and
• meeting any targets relating to the reduction of emissions of greenhouse gases.

Create spaces to support physical activity, relaxation and play, to bring people together and to celebrate our culture, diversity and heritage.

This reflects multiple NPF statutory outcomes:

• improving the health and wellbeing of people living in Scotland;
• improving equality and eliminating discrimination; and
• securing positive effects for biodiversity.

National Developments: Reason for Selection as set out in draft NPF4

1. Central Scotland Green Network

• This national development is needed to improve quality of place and create new opportunities for investment. This will support delivery of the spatial strategy which highlights the importance of accelerating urban greening in this most densely populated part of Scotland.

2. National Walking, Cycling and Wheeling Network

• This national development will significantly support modal shift and deliver multiple outcomes including the commitment to a 20% reduction in car kilometres, associated emissions reduction, health and air quality improvement. This will support the delivery of our spatial strategy by creating a more sustainable distribution of access across Scotland as a whole.

3. Urban Mass/Rapid Transit Networks

• This national development will help reduce transport related emissions overall, improve air quality, reduce the demand for private vehicle use, support the roll out of 20 minute neighbourhoods and improve transport equity.

4. Urban Sustainable, Blue and Green Drainage Solutions

• A large proportion of our population lives in our largest cities. The management of surface water drainage at scale across these city regions will help us to adapt to extreme weather events that will become more frequent as a result of climate change. Whilst focused on drainage, a nature-based approach to surface water management has the potential to deliver multiple health, wellbeing, economic and climate adaptation and emissions reduction benefits. It will also free up sewer capacity for connections to new development.

5. Circular Economy Material Management Facilities

• This national development helps maximise Scotland's potential to retain the energy and emissions values within materials already in the economy.

6. Digital Fibre Network

• This is a fundamentally important utility, required to support development, community wellbeing, equal access to goods and services, and emissions reduction from reduced demand for travel.

Alternatives

The assessment findings for the alternative national developments are located within Appendix E.

Summary of Effects - Proposed National Developments

1. Central Scotland Green Network

The proposed national development is to support delivery of green infrastructure in Central Scotland.

Summary of potential environment effects

• Significant long term benefits for biodiversity may arise where a focus on green infrastructure supports delivery of high quality and multifunctioning spaces at scale.
• Overall net positive impact on achieving national GHG emissions reduction targets is expected due to reduced transport emissions associated with higher uptake of active travel, reduced flood risk and greater rates of carbon sequestration due to the creation of new greenspace and large-scale planting of trees.
• Significant positive effects on climate change adaptation are expected where the development leads to multi-functional green infrastructure for climate adaptation purposes, or new or upgraded sustainable water management and drainage systems through increased resilience to flood risk. Secondary benefits for population and human health may arise through creation of attractive open spaces, particularly where these play a key role in supporting improved placemaking.
• Long-term benefits on noise and air quality should arise where support for active travel achieves a modal shift from more polluting forms of transport.
• Wider secondary benefits should also arise through the role of natural infrastructure in improving air quality.
• Potential for positive impacts through support for broader environmental improvements leading to improved ecosystem health. Further benefits should also arise from the remediation of vacant and derelict land.
• Positive impacts on cultural heritage should arise where proposals take account of and work positively with the historic environment to add value, including through the role these assets can play in placemaking.
• Potential for significant benefits to arise through improvements in landscape, particularly where focus is given to restoring and enhancing degraded landscapes.
• Increased access and uptake of active travel may give rise to significant benefits for both physical and mental health. Wider societal benefits including improved levels of social interaction and sense of place may also arise.

2. National Walking, Cycling and Wheeling Network

Proposed national development for upgrading and provision of additional active travel.

Summary of potential environment effects

• Potential for negative impacts on biodiversity from new infrastructure requirements.
• Overall net positive impact on achieving national GHG emissions reduction targets due to the support for low carbon and active travel.
• Positive impacts on noise and air quality should arise where measures lead to a modal shift from more polluting forms of transport.
• Potential for localised negative effects on soil such as compaction leading to a loss of soil function where infrastructure development is required.
• Potential for significant positive impacts on material assets where this leads to an integrated transport system that supports multi modes of travel and leads to improved sense of place.
• Re-use of existing infrastructure alongside remediation of brownfield land, where possible, should reduce pressure on natural resources and align with circular economy principles.
• Increased uptake of active travel options can lead to positive effects on population and human health through improved physical and mental health.

3. Urban Mass/Rapid Transit Networks

The proposed national development is to deliver low carbon transport solutions to support reduction in private car use in Aberdeen, Edinburgh and Glasgow providing better access to employment and supporting investment.

Summary of potential environment effects

• Potential for negative impacts from the construction and operation of supporting infrastructure.
• Overall net positive impact on achieving national GHG emissions reduction targets. This is considered likely as the long-term positive effects of three of Scotland's major cities using sustainable transport powered by low carbon electricity is likely to outweigh the short-term negative effects.
• Construction of new, or modifications to existing infrastructure/interventions could impact on waterbodies, including physical changes and water pollution.
• Significant positive impacts on air quality should arise where modal shift leads to more sustainable, low-carbon modes of transport.
• Potential for long term negative effects such as compaction leading to a loss of soil function, resulting from improvements and development of associated infrastructure.
• Potential impacts, both positive and negative, on historic buildings the setting of some historic sites are likely to require consideration at project level.
• Negative impacts could arise on landscape and geodiversity where new physical infrastructure is required, however, the scale of effect is uncertain.
• Positive impacts on material assets may arise through support for increased interconnectivity and sustainable modes of transport.
• Improved access and connectivity to key services, such as employment opportunities has the potential to lead to positive impacts on population and human health.

4. Urban Sustainable, Blue and Green Drainage Solutions

The proposed national development aims to build on the benefits of the Metropolitan Glasgow Strategic Drainage Partnership, to continue investment and extend the approach to the Edinburgh city region.

Summary of potential environment effects

• Infrastructure requirements, including the use of built engineered structures, has the potential to lead to negative effects on biodiversity.
• Overall net positive impact on achieving national GHG emissions reduction targets. This is due to reduced flood risk and delivery of more green spaces that will enhance carbon sequestration.
• Long term positive impacts should also arise where infrastructure supports adaption to climate change through reducing risk of flooding.
• Development activities could impact on known and unknown archaeological sites and historic assets.
• Nature based solutions have the potential to lead to positive effects on water by reducing flood risk and diffuse pollution with secondary benefits on biodiversity and human health. Improved social cohesion through the creation of attractive open spaces may arise with the "green" and "blue" features of the natural and built environment widely recognised and valued as essential components of successful places.

5. Circular Economy Material Management Facilities

The proposed national development is to deliver a range of facilities required to manage waste streams and their re-processing back to the economy, where sites and facilities will enable retaining the value of waste materials to maximise the use of materials and minimise the use of virgin materials to reduce GHG emissions.

Summary of potential environment effects

• Significant long term benefits on biodiversity should arise where development leads to reduced pressure on natural resources through support for circular economy principles.
• Negative impacts on biodiversity may arise from the construction and operation of new supporting infrastructure. Potential impacts include land take, leading to habitat loss or damage and disturbance/displacement.
• Overall net positive impact on achieving national GHG emissions reduction targets. This is due to increased efficiency in waste management and use of raw materials.
• Reduced waste going to landfill should also lead to secondary benefits for water quality. Remanufacturing can also reduce pressure on resources compared to manufacturing from new, with associated benefits for water quality and quantity.
• Long term benefits could arise from improved air quality, for example, from reduced energy requirements for manufacturing purposes and pollutants associated with the landfilling of waste.
• Potential for operational activities to give rise to impacts including dust, noise, odour and particulate pollution.
• Potential for negative effects such as compaction leading to a loss of soil function resulting from infrastructure requirements.
• There is potential for localised negative effects on landscapes and the setting of both designated and undesignated historic assets.
• Long term significant positive impacts on material assets should arise through greater efficiency in resource use and reduced pressure on raw materials.
• Additional benefits should arise through reduced pressure on existing waste management facilities. The re-use of existing infrastructure, including brownfield land should also reduce pressure on natural resources.
• Long term benefits on population and human health may arise from potential investment in innovation and productivity, and where inclusive growth leads to employment and the creation of up-skilling opportunities.

6. Digital Fibre Network

The proposed national development is to deliver enhanced digital connectivity providing high speed broadband or equivalent mobile service, prioritising those areas with weaker networks across Scotland.

Summary of potential environment effects

• Potential for negative impacts on biodiversity during the laying of cables during construction, and habitat damage or loss.
• Overall negligible effects on achieving national GHG emissions reduction targets. This is because the potential increases in maintenance travel and electricity use, and to industrial, manufacture and construction processes, should be counterbalanced by reduced journeys from improved digital connectivity.
• Localised negative impacts on water, soil, noise and air quality may arise during installation of cables.
• Positive secondary impacts on air quality may arise where development reduces the need for travel and where this supports the decarbonisation of the energy and transport sector.
• Positive impacts on material assets likely, including through the role of digital infrastructure in supporting other systems such as energy and transport and through increased resilience across sectors.
• Significant positive impacts on population and human health should arise where digital connectivity leads to increased access to goods and services, particularly key services, including health and employment opportunities.

Summary of Effects – Liveable Places

4.2.15 An overall equalities-led approach will have long-term positive effects on population and human health through an increased focus on addressing inequalities and discrimination.

4.2.16 Health and wellbeing benefits may arise where the proposed national developments lead to more people walking, wheeling and cycling. Increased physical activity, improved access to outdoors, education, facilities and services, and quality local green spaces are also likely to have long term significant positive effects on physical and mental health. Positive impacts could also arise from improved sense of place including societal benefits. Benefits can be maximised where focus is given to areas experiencing current levels of disadvantage.

4.2.17 Potential for significant positive effects on population and human health where proposals give rise to good quality homes, linked to need and demand within an area. There is an opportunity to promote energy efficient homes which may contribute to reducing fuel poverty, with associated societal benefits.

4.2.18 Potential for positive effects on population and human health where the Digital fibre network development leads to improved digital connectivity, particularly in areas where gaps in connectivity and barriers to digital access gaps exist. This could support reducing inequalities and digital exclusion as access to getting online is lower the most deprived areas in Scotland. Additional benefits may also arise where improved connectivity supports access to essential services including healthcare and education. The extent to which digital initiatives address the risk of digital exclusion will need to be considered to ensure these benefits are realised across all members of society.

4.2.19 Long term localised positive effects on noise and air quality may arise where proposals encourage a shift to more sustainable modes of travel. Air pollution can impact on the more vulnerable members of society – the very young, the elderly and those with existing health conditions such as asthma, respiratory and heart disease, thus making air quality an important health inequalities issue. As air pollution can also effect ecosystems, secondary benefits to biodiversity may also arise through improved air quality.

4.2.20 Positive effects on climatic factors through improved community resilience to the effects of climate change should arise where proposals lead to increased use of multi-functional green infrastructure for climate adaptation purposes, or new or upgraded sustainable water management and drainage systems are implemented. Secondary benefits for population and human health may arise through the creation of attractive open spaces, particularly where these play a key role in supporting improved placemaking.

4.2.21 The identified proposed national developments are predicted to have a cumulative net positive impact on achieving national GHG emission reduction targets.

Productive Places

4.2.22 Productive places aims to ensure future places will attract new investment, build business confidence, stimulate entrepreneurship and facilitate future ways of working – improving economic, social and environmental wellbeing.

Preferred Strategy: Reason for Selection

Build a wellbeing economy that benefits everyone, and every place, in Scotland

This supports the NPF statutory outcomes:

• improving equality and eliminating discrimination; and
• improving the health and wellbeing of people living in Scotland.

Green investment is a key priority

This supports NPF statutory outcomes:

• improving the health and wellbeing of people living in Scotland;
• meeting any targets relating to the reduction of emissions of greenhouse gases; and
• securing positive effects for biodiversity.

Encourage development that supports the prosperity of key sectors, supports community wealth building and creates fair work and good green jobs where they are most needed.

This supports NPF statutory outcome:

• improving the health and wellbeing of people living in Scotland.

National Developments: Reason for Selection as set out in draft NPF4

7. Islands Hub for Net Zero

• These classes of development support the potential of the three island authorities to exemplify a transition to a net zero society. This will support delivery of our spatial strategy by helping to sustain communities in rural and island areas by stimulating employment and innovation.

8. Industrial Green Transition Zones

• This national development is required to meet our targets for emissions reduction. It also supports a just transition by creating new jobs in emerging technologies and significant economic opportunities for lower carbon industry. It will help to decarbonise other sectors, sites and regions, paving the way for increasing demand to be complemented by the production of further hydrogen in the future. This will also help to deliver our spatial strategy by supporting investment in the North East and the Central Belt where there has been a relatively high level of output from fossil fuel industries.

9. Pumped Hydro Storage

• This national development supports pumped hydro storage capacity within the electricity network through significant new or expanded sites. This supports the transition to a net zero economy through the ability of pumped hydro storage schemes to optimise electricity generated from renewables by storing and releasing it when it is required.

10. Hunterston Strategic Asset

• These classes of development support the redevelopment and reuse of existing strategic assets and land contributing to a net zero economy. It also supports delivery of our spatial strategy by stimulating investment in the west of Scotland, potentially contributing to the wider aim of tackling inequalities.

11. Chapelcross Power Station Redevelopment

• This national development supports the reuse of a significant area of brownfield land in a rural area with economically fragile communities. It will also support the just transition to net zero.

12. Strategic Renewable Electricity Generation and Transmission Infrastructure

• Additional electricity generation from renewables and electricity transmission capacity of scale is fundamental to achieving a net zero economy and supports improved network resilience in rural and island areas. Island transmission connections in particular can facilitate capturing the significant renewable energy potential in those areas as well as delivering significant social and economic benefits.

13. High Speed Rail

• This national development aims to ensure a low emissions air-competitive journey time to cities in the UK as well as connectivity with European cities and benefits to freight. This will support Scotland's ability to attract and compete for investment.

Alternatives

The assessment findings for the alternative national developments are located within Appendix E.

Summary of Effects - Proposed National Developments

7. Islands Hub for Net Zero

This national development supports proposed developments in the Western Isles, Shetland and Orkney island groups, for renewable energy generation, renewable hydrogen production, infrastructure and shipping, and associated opportunities in the supply chain for fabrication, research and development.

Summary of potential environment effects

• Projects which involve the creation of new ports, or the extension of existing port facilities have the potential to significantly affect the qualifying features of nearby nature designated sites.
• Overall net positive impact on achieving national GHG emissions reduction targets. This is due to uncertainty of the scale and type of renewable energy production, renewable hydrogen production, distribution and storage, supporting infrastructure, supply chain for fabrication and R&D, and the use of lower emission fuels for shipping.
• There may be short term localised adverse effects on the ecological quality of the water environment.
• Possible localised air quality impacts could arise from operational activities, including surface transport and vessel movement, which could also give rise to increased exposure to noise.
• Likelihood of both short term and long term impacts, including sediment disturbance and loss of soil from construction activities and infrastructure requirements.
• Potential for long term negative impacts on both known and unknown, as well as designated and undesignated offshore archaeology and protections sites, including historic wrecks.
• Potential for adverse effects on local landscape character with particular implications for coastal landscapes and seascapes.
• Potential benefits on material assets through provision of key infrastructure to support a move towards decarbonisation and increased diversification and resilience within the energy mix. Benefits should also arise through improvements to port/harbour, key transport hubs, which are of particular importance to island communities in supporting lifeline services. The re-use/ enhancement of infrastructure, such as repurposing of offshore pipelines for hydrogen, should also reduce pressure on natural resources through alignment with circular economy principles.
• Positive effects should arise from high value employment opportunities and the creation of strategically important new capacity, capabilities and skills in the delivery of net-zero targets, supporting the attractiveness of the area and improving the vitality of islands communities.

8. Industrial Green Transition Zones

Industrial Green Transition Zones will support the generation of significant economic opportunities while minimising carbon emissions. Technologies that will help Scotland transition to net-zero will be supported at these locations, with a particular focus on low carbon and zero emissions technologies including renewables and the generation, storage and distribution of low carbon hydrogen.

Summary of potential environment effects

• Project sites in locations around St Fergus, Peterhead and the Firth of Forth have the potential to significantly affect the qualifying features of nearby designated sites.
• Overall net positive impact on achieving national GHG emissions reduction targets. This is due to support for the transition to hydrogen from direct fossil fuel dependency using low carbon hydrogen production with carbon capture, utilisation and storage.
• Potential for both short and long term negative impacts to arise on both the terrestrial and marine environments from the construction of new and upgraded infrastructure and operational activities.
• Short and long term negative impacts on noise and air quality including odour and dust, may arise from construction and operational activities.
• Potential for negative impacts for soil, both short term during construction activities to long term, for example, sediment disturbance and loss of seabed from laying of pipes and through land take for infrastructure requirements.
• Potential for long term negative effects on both known and unknown historic and cultural heritage assets.
• Long term negative impacts on landscape and seascapes could arise from siting of infrastructure, particularly where new infrastructure is required.
• Positive impacts on material assets should arise from increased support for the diversification of the energy mix. Increased resilience should also arise through the role of hydrogen in energy storage, supporting fluctuations in peak demand and enabling supply to be met when disruptions arise.
• The reuse and refurbishment of existing infrastructure, where possible, should reduce pressure on natural resources and align with circular economy principles.
• Positive impacts should arise for human health through inward investment, including where this leads to employment and skills transfer opportunities. Regeneration measures also have the potential to improve access to key goods and services and lead to wider benefits.

9. Pumped Hydro Storage

The proposed national development is to deliver additional capacity at existing sites as well as new sites. It will include expansion of the capacity at Cruachan.

Summary of potential environment effects

• Pumped hydro storage projects have potential for significant negative direct effects on biodiversity from loss of habitat and disturbance to species. Indirect effects can arise through changes in lighting or noise. Both terrestrial and freshwater habitats and species can be effected by pumped hydro schemes. There is potential for the Cruachan project to impact on internationally, nationally, and locally designated sites.
• Overall net positive effect on achieving national GHG emissions reduction targets due to the facilitation and enabling of renewable energy development across Scotland from the provision of energy storage and rapid capacity during demand peaks.
• Construction of large storage or pumped storage hydropower can lead to blocking, diverting and changes to the natural course of river systems.
• Negative impacts could include effects on water quality and quantity, morphological changes to standing and running waters.
• Construction and operation of pumped hydro storage can lead to negative impacts, including noise, vibration and dust, including from increased transports movements, which can in turn effect human health and biodiversity.
• Secondary benefits could arise for air quality through support for the decarbonisation of the energy sector.
• Permanent loss of soil during reservoir construction and site development, including associated infrastructure requirements is expected. Extensive areas of land could be required where new reservoirs are created.
• Pumped hydro storage has potential for direct and indirect effects on the historic environment, including designated and undesignated, features and their settings.
• Pumped hydro storage infrastructure has the potential to give rise to significant landscape impacts. Access tracks, pipelines, grid connections and other components could have significant impacts requiring mitigation through appropriate siting and post-construction restoration where possible.
• Potential benefits should arise on material assets from pumped hydro storage through supporting diversification and increased resilience within the energy network.
• Support for long term transition to net-zero should lead to benefits for human health as the impacts of current and future climate change is likely to affect health both locally and globally.
• Positive impacts on population and human health may also arise from employment opportunities for local communities.

10. Hunterston Strategic Asset

This proposed national development will support an increased mix of opportunities including port, electricity and hydrogen generation including servicing for offshore energy, carbon capture, aquaculture, business, commercial and industrial uses.

Summary of potential environment effects

• Potential for impacts to arise for internationally, nationally and locally designated nature sites will require further consideration at project level.
• Overall net positive impact on achieving national GHG emissions reduction targets. This is due to support for renewable and low carbon hydrogen production, and electricity generation, including from renewable energy, increasing the renewable energy supply and security of supply over a long time period and displacing fossil fuel use including through use of carbon capture.
• Overall long term secondary benefits should arise for air quality through support for decarbonisation.
• Potential for negative impacts on water from construction and operational activities.
• Benefits for soil from the re-use of brownfield land will be dependent on the extent of proposed re-development. Possible disturbance to seabed through construction and operation of marine activities could lead to negative impacts.
• There is potential for negative effects on the setting of historical assets.
• Negative impacts could arise from the development of new infrastructure which is likely to lead to a degree of landscape change.
• Potential for significant positive impacts on material assets through redevelopment of existing assets, such as decommissioned oil and gas infrastructure, key infrastructure hubs including the deep water harbour and dry dock, aligning with circular economy principles. Positive impacts should also arise through improved diversification and resilience of the energy network, helping to manage fluctuations in energy demand and potential for reduced risk of flooding, which can negatively impacts on built assets.
• Benefits on population and human health could also arise from the creation of employment opportunities and localising life/work options, including through improving access to facilities and services.

11. Chapelcross Power Station Redevelopment

The proposed national development is to redevelop the former nuclear power station site. The development may include for example business development with a particular focus on energy and energy supply chain; energy generation from solar; electricity storage; generation of heat; production and storage of low carbon and renewable hydrogen.

Summary of potential environment effects

• Potential for impacts on internationally designated sites will require further consideration including at project level
• Overall net positive impact on achieving national GHG emissions reduction targets. This is due to the production of renewable and low carbon energy and support for energy related business development.
• Negative and localised impacts from construction activities on water quality could arise, which should be short term in nature. Operational activities could also lead to long term negative impacts, for example, the production of hydrogen may impact on water quality and quantity
• Longer term positive effects on air quality should arise through potential displacement of traditional energy fuels, however, potential for localised impacts from operational activities will be influenced by the technologies employed and may require further consideration.
• Positive impacts on soils should arise from the remediation of vacant and derelict land.
• Potential for negative impacts on unknown archaeology through construction activities.
• Positive impacts for material assets through support for diversification in the energy mix and re-use of infrastructure, including vacant and derelict land.
• There is the potential for mixed effects on landscapes as a result of land use change resulting from development.
• Potential for positive impacts on population and human health to arise from improved access to key services such as employment opportunities, the benefits of which should be maximised through support provided for taking a community wealth building approach. Where the development leads to localised energy supply, further positive impacts should also arise, including from the potential provision to local communities/businesses of heat and electricity.

12. Strategic Renewable Electricity Generation and Transmission Infrastructure

This national development supports renewable electricity generation (of or exceeding 50MW), repowering, and expansion of the electricity grid for domestic consumption and export to the UK and beyond. This development will include new infrastructure to support off-shore renewables.

Summary of potential environment effects

• Potential for significant negative impacts on biodiversity to arise for example, disturbance and risk of pollution during construction, or long term loss of habitat and fragmentation.
• Overall net positive impact on achieving national GHG emissions reduction targets. This is due to potential for substantial generation and transmission of low carbon electricity.
• Potential for negative impacts on ground and surface water and coastal waters, depending on installation requirements.
• Longer term secondary positive impacts for air quality should arise where development supports emissions reductions.
• There is the potential for long term negative effects on soil arising from construction and installation of infrastructure, including from compaction, erosion and soil sealing. Potential for disturbance or loss of peat and carbon rich soils which may reduce carbon sequestration.
• Potential for physical impacts on both known and unknown archaeological features in both marine and terrestrial environments. There is also potential to effect the setting of historic assets.
• Potential for negative effects on landscape character, including implications for coastal landscapes and seascapes where new infrastructure development is required.
• Significant positive impacts on material assets should arise through support for energy grid infrastructure and potential to increase flexibility, efficiency and resilience of the energy network as a whole, with increased resilience of significant importance in rural, remote and fragile locations.
• Increased access and reliability of the energy network, including where focus is given to community sustainability and storage, should lead to significant positive effects on population and human health, particularly in rural, remote and fragile locations, including from reduced risk of disruption during extreme weather events.

13. High Speed Rail

The proposed national development is to support the implementation of increased infrastructure to improve rail capacity and connectivity on the main cross-border routes, the east and west coast mainlines.

Summary of potential environment effects

• Negative impacts likely to arise for biodiversity.
• Overall net positive impact on achieving national GHG emissions reduction targets. This is due to displacement of emissions from private cars and air travel over a long time period.
• Potential for negative impacts on waterbodies. This could include physical changes and water pollution arising from construction activities.
• Localised impacts on air quality are likely to arise from construction actives, including from increased surface traffic activity to and from sites. Potential for long term benefits from support for modal shift to a less polluting mode of transport.
• The construction of the new rail stations, depots and high speed line could result in permanent soil sealing and compaction, including from possible development of agricultural land and carbon rich soils, with potential for associated implications for GHG emissions.
• There is potential for permanent negative effects on cultural heritage, including loss of known and unknown archaeological resources, impacts on historic buildings where established railway infrastructure is modified, and effects on the setting of some historic sites.
• Potential for significant short and long term negative impacts to arise from changes to the character and appearance of local landscapes.
• Positive impacts on material assets should arise through support for improved interconnectivity of more sustainable modes of transport.
• Potential for long term positive impacts on population and human health to arise from increased connectivity, including to goods and services, including through reduced travel times and improved job prospects. Displacement from less sustainable modes of travel could also lead to improved air quality, with associated benefits, including societal.

Summary of environmental effects – Productive Places

4.2.23 An overall focus on building a wellbeing economy that benefits everyone and every place will have positive effects on population and human health by addressing inequalities and creation of high value employment opportunities. These benefits should be maximised through support provided for taking a community wealth building approach.

4.2.24 Positive effects on both population and human health and climatic factors should arise from prioritising green investment and the creation of strategically important new infrastructure capacity, capabilities and skills in the delivery of net-zero targets.

4.2.25 Potential benefits on material assets may arise through the provision of key infrastructure to support a move towards decarbonisation and increased diversification and resilience within the energy mix.

4.2.26 Benefits to built material assets should also arise through improvements to port/harbour, key transport hubs, which are of particular importance to island communities in supporting lifeline services.

4.2.27 The re-use/enhancement of infrastructure, such as repurposing of offshore pipelines for hydrogen, should also reduce pressure on natural resources through alignment with circular economy principles.

4.2.28 Developments have potential to negatively affect a range of receptors including communities, biodiversity, cultural heritage, landscapes, water and soil. This can be minimised through siting and design and enhancement measures applied where relevant in keeping with national policy.

4.2.29 The identified proposed national developments are predicted to have a cumulative net positive impact on achieving national GHG emission reduction targets. This is predominantly due to the overall support for the transition to low carbon and renewable energy, and low-carbon travel.

Distinctive Places

4.2.30 This section aims to ensure future places will be distinctive, safe and pleasant, easy to move around, welcoming, nature-positive and resource efficient.

Preferred Strategy: Reason for Selection

Value, enhance, conserve and celebrate our best places and to build better places for future generations.

This supports the NPF statutory outcomes of:

• improving the health and wellbeing of people living in Scotland, and
• securing positive effects for biodiversity.

A stronger commitment to place-making, through a design-led approach and a focus on quality, will ensure every new development will support and improve the experience of our places.

This supports the NPF statutory outcomes of:

• improving the health and wellbeing of people living in Scotland, and
• securing positive effects for biodiversity

Reshape future city and town centres, reuse vacant and derelict land and buildings, enhance our natural and cultural heritage, and create new rural opportunities.

This supports the NPF statutory outcomes of:

• improving the health and wellbeing of people living in Scotland,
• securing positive effects for biodiversity, and
• increasing the population of rural areas.

Restore the richness of Scotland's natural environment, protect and enhance our historic environment, and safeguard our shared heritage for future generations.

This supports the NPF statutory outcomes of:

• securing positive effects for biodiversity.

Work together to ensure that development onshore aligns with national and regional marine plans so that we can protect and enhance the marine environment and unlock the potential of our coastal assets.

This supports the NPF statutory outcome of securing positive effects for biodiversity as well as alignment with wider Scottish Government policies and plans.

National Developments: Reason for Selection as set out in draft NPF4

14. Clyde Mission

• These classes of development revitalise a major waterfront asset which is currently under-utilised. This will support the delivery of our spatial strategy by attracting investment and reuse of vacant and derelict land in west central Scotland where there is a particular need to improve quality of place, generate employment and support disadvantaged communities. It will also support adaptation to climate risks.

15. Aberdeen Harbour

• This national development supports the optimisation of Aberdeen Harbour to support net zero and stimulate economic investment. It is also a significant opportunity to support better placemaking including city centre transformation, and regeneration of existing land by optimising the use of new and existing assets. This will deliver our spatial strategy by helping the north east of Scotland to achieve a just transition from a high carbon economy whilst improving quality of place.

16. Dundee Waterfront

• This national development supports the continued revitalisation of Dundee waterfront, expanded to include Michelin Scotland Innovation Parc in support of the Tay Cities Regional Economic Strategy and its continued use for economic purposes. Waterfront locations may be particularly vulnerable to climate change and so development requires to be carefully designed to manage likely risks.

17. Edinburgh Waterfront

• Waterfronts in our largest urban areas are frequently under-utilised and contain significant areas of vacant and derelict land as well as existing infrastructure assets. Their location may be particularly vulnerable to climate change and likely risks will require careful management. This will support delivery of our spatial strategy, which recognises the importance of our urban coastline in supporting our sense of place, economy and wellbeing.

18. Stranraer Gateway

• Loch Ryan and Stranraer act as a gateway to Scotland. Reusing the assets in this location will support the wellbeing, economy and community in line with the regional growth deal. It will help to deliver our spatial strategy by driving forward regeneration of a key hub.

Alternatives

The assessment findings for the alternative national developments are located within Appendix E.

Summary of Effects - Proposed National Developments

14. Clyde Mission

The proposed national development is to deliver an ambitious programme to bring forward sites and assets which are ready for redevelopment to sustain a range of uses.

The location includes the river Clyde and land immediately next to it (up to around 500 meters from the river) along its length.

Summary of potential environment effects

• Potential for impacts on internationally designated sites will require consideration at project level.
• Likely overall net negative effect on lifecycle GHG emissions due to increased emissions from transport, electricity, heat, industrial, manufacture and construction processes and waste.
• Long term positive effects on the water environment should arise where development leads to remediation of land contamination and/or redevelopment of vacant and derelict land.
• Potential negative impacts on the water environment may arise through waterfront infrastructure development and operations.
• Use of sustainable urban drainage systems (SUDs)/natural infrastructure to manage flood risk, should lead to associated benefits for water quality and quantity.
• Potential for negative impacts on air quality and noise where proposals lead to increased traffic.
• Positive impacts on soil should arise from the remediation of vacant and derelict land, particularly where focus is given to areas with existing contamination.
• Potential for development to effect the setting of historic assets, and impact unknown archaeological assets in the marine and terrestrial environments. Opportunities to bring vacant or buildings at risk back into use, and improve the setting of historic assets.
• Positive effects on townscape and landscape may arise from the overall approach to sustainable regeneration of an extensive area, particularly though focus on the remediation of vacant and derelict land and support for high quality public realm spaces.
• Potential for significant positive effects for material assets as a result of sustainable regeneration activities and through support for decarbonisation within the energy and transport sectors.
• Potential for long term significant benefits for population and human health particularly from remediation of vacant and derelict land and support for 20 minute neighbourhoods, with associated benefits including improved quality of place and quality of life.

15. Aberdeen Harbour

This national development supports the continued and repurposing of Aberdeen Harbour.

Summary of potential environment effects

• Potential for impacts on internationally designated sites will require consideration at project level.
• Likely overall net positive impact on achieving national GHG emissions reduction targets. This is likely due to the facilitation and enabling of renewable energy development across Scotland, and the production of renewable hydrogen over long timescales.
• There is potential for localised negative impacts on water resulting from development-related operational and construction activities.
• Measures to support improved active travel links should help to reduce possible localised negative impacts on air quality that could arise from increased surface traffic within the area.
• Impacts on soils will be minimal where development occurs on brownfield land.
• There is potential for significant negative effects on the setting of known historical assets within the vicinity of Aberdeen harbour. There is also potential for physical impacts on unknown buried archaeological assets in both terrestrial and marine environments.
• Potential for significant permanent negative effects on local seascape and landscape character and on visual amenity resulting from upgraded port facilities, infrastructure for renewable hydrogen production and mixed use developments and from increased vessel movements.
• Positive impacts for built material assets should arise from support for making best use of existing assets, and from the enhancement of key infrastructure port and harbour assets.
• Positive impacts on population and human health have the potential to arise from access to training and employment opportunities and inward investment.
• At the South Harbour, consideration should be given to the potential impacts for recreational users of the local area.

16. Dundee Waterfront

This national development supports the continued delivery of the waterfront transformation securing the role of the city as a location for investment in the net zero economy.

Summary of potential environment effects

• Potential for negative impacts on nature sites with international designations which will require consideration at project level.
• Where implemented, blue/green infrastructure should lead to long term benefits, including habitat creation and through improved connectivity.
• Likely overall net positive impact on achieving national GHG emissions reduction targets. This is due to emissions associated with transport generated by a mixed-use development which are partly balanced by indirect support for renewable energy development.
• Negative impacts on water could arise during both construction and operational phases.
• Potential for long term positive impacts on water quality through new and/or upgraded blue and green infrastructure.
• Increased surface traffic and vessels may negatively impact local air quality with secondary effects on human health and biodiversity. This is of particular relevance as the area is within Dundee AQMA (designated due to NO₂ and PM₁₀).
• Negative impacts on soils, such as soil sealing and compaction and loss of soil, may arise from infrastructure requirements.
• Potential for long term negative effects on the setting of both designated and undesignated historic assets, and potential for direct impacts on these and unknown archaeological assets.
• The development of infrastructure could also lead to a degree of landscape change. This will be within the context of a developed and industrial landscape, and are therefore expected to be localised and require consideration at project level.
• Potential for positive impacts on built material assets through redevelopment of existing infrastructure, and the redevelopment of brownfield land, particularly where focus is given to improved placemaking. Additional benefits should also arise through the provision of infrastructure to support the decarbonisation of the energy and transport sectors.
• Potential for positive impact to arise where development leads to improved access to training, employment opportunities and inward investment with factors such as ability to access services and facilities playing a key role in health and in tackling health inequalities.

17. Edinburgh Waterfront

This proposed national development supports regeneration that will include high quality mixed-use proposals that optimise the use of the strategic asset for residential, community, commercial and industrial purposes, including support for off-shore energy relating to port uses.

This area includes Edinburgh, with an initial focus on Leith to Granton.

Summary of potential environment effects

• Potential for negative impacts on nature sites with international designations which will require consideration at project level.
• Likely overall net positive impact on achieving national GHG emissions reduction targets. This is due to the indirect positive effect from the support for the renewables industry which is judged to outweigh the negative direct effects of the development from the provision of housing, employment and industry leading to increased GHG emissions from transport, electricity and heat demand.
• Benefits should arise where consideration is given to improved resilience to the impacts of climate change, with coastal infrastructure likely to be at increased risk, including from extreme weather events.
• Negative impacts on water could arise during both construction and operational phases.
• Potential for long term positive impacts for water where consideration is given to blue/green infrastructure as a natural solution to flood risk management.
• Projects taken forward have potential to impact local air quality through transport emissions, vessel emissions and dust generated during construction, with secondary effects on human health and biodiversity. This is of particular relevance as multiple AQMAs have been declared in the wider area.
• Benefits on soils should arise where new/upgraded blue and green infrastructure leads to habitat creation and improved ecosystem health. Negative impacts, such as soil sealing and compaction and loss of soil may arise from infrastructure requirements.
• Potential for negative effects to arise on cultural heritage which is likely to require consideration at project level.
• Infrastructure development is likely to lead to a degree of landscape change, and will require consideration at project level.
• Potential for positive effects through the provision of built assets. Benefits should also arise from consideration of improved resilience to the impacts of climate change, particularly given the predicted increased risks to coastal assets.
• Potential for positive effects to arise on population and human health from the provision of housing and amenities and improved access to employment opportunities. Associated benefits should also arise where focus is given to placemaking.

18. Stranraer Gateway

The proposed national development is to deliver a high quality place-based regeneration in Stranraer that will also support the wider population of southwest Scotland acting as a hub and providing a platform for future investment, that may include commercial, residential, industrial development and transport connectivity enhancement.

The area includes Stranraer and associated transport routes.

Summary of potential environment effects

• Potential for negative impacts on nature sites with international designations which will require consideration at project level.
• Likely overall net positive impact on achieving national GHG emissions reduction targets. This is due to positive effects from use and distribution of low carbon fuels, increased transport efficiency from new rail facilities and transportation which is judged to outweigh the negative effects from increased transport emissions. The scale of this effect is likely to be low.
• Potential for positive impacts on climatic factors where consideration is given to adaptation due to the increased risk from climate change impacts sea level rise and erosion to coastal assets.
• Potential for both short term and longer term negative impacts on the water environment from construction and operational activities.
• Localised negative impacts on air quality may arise due to increased surface transport and vessel movements.
• Likelihood of both short term and long term negative impacts for soils and geodiversity, in the marine and terrestrial environments, from construction and operational activities, however positive effects on soils are expected where vacant and derelict land is reused.
• Potential for negative effects on the setting of known historic assets in the vicinity of Stranraer and the trunk road network.
• Depending on the nature of the projects taken forward, there is potential for negative effects on seascape and landscapes.
• Positive effects should arise on material assets through focus on high quality placemaking, including through the reuse of existing infrastructure and re-use of vacant and derelict land, aligning with circular economy principles.
• Positive long term benefits likely to arise from a focus on high quality placemaking, including through redevelopment of vacant and derelict land. Improved transport links, including international connectivity, should lead to increased access to key services such as employment/upskilling opportunities and potential to support inclusive growth, with associated benefits including improved quality of life.

Summary of Effects – Distinctive Places

4.2.31 The overall strategy to value, enhance, conserve and celebrate our best places and to build better places for future generations will have positive effects across a range of receptors including population and human health, biodiversity, cultural heritage, landscape, water and soils.

4.2.32 Positive effects on townscape and landscape may arise from the overall approach to sustainable regeneration of extensive areas such as Clyde Mission, and where focus is on reshaping future cities and town centres.

4.2.33 The remediation of vacant and derelict land and empty buildings, particularly buildings at risk, and support for high quality public realm spaces, will have positive benefits on soils, cultural heritage, biodiversity and population and human health.

4.2.34 Significant positive effects on biodiversity, flora and fauna should arise where opportunities to enhance natural heritage are taken forward. For example, benefits in enhancing biodiversity, linking areas through wildlife corridors, and contributing towards greater ecosystem resilience against invasive non-native species, may occur.

4.2.35 Increased development of green infrastructure may facilitate greater levels of active travel. This can have secondary impacts on air quality, in addition to reducing GHG emissions, with secondary benefits for human health and biodiversity.

4.2.36 Positive effects on landscape and the setting of cultural assets are expected where proposals lead to their enhancement. This could include direct effects, for example, through the protection given to Inventory Gardens and Designed Landscapes, and also indirect effects from the commitment to protecting the wider setting of historic assets and places.

4.2.37 Positive impacts on material assets should arise from support for making best use of existing assets, and from the enhancement of key infrastructure including port and harbour assets.

4.2.38 Benefits should arise where consideration is given to improved resilience of assets to the impacts of climate change, with coastal infrastructure likely to be at increased risk, including from extreme weather events.

4.3 Regional Level Assessments

4.3.1 This section brings together consideration of the proposed spatial strategy and national developments, to identify environmental issues that may arise within the five actions action areas (Figure 4.1). This allows for the cumulative effects arising from the spatial strategy to be considered in more detail, together with opportunities to coordinate mitigation. For each area, a regional environmental baseline is first described, followed by a summary of likely effects arising.

Figure 4.1 Action Areas for Scotland 2045

North and west coastal innovation – making sustainable use of coasts and islands to sustain communities and pioneer investment in the blue economy.

North east transition – actively planning a just transition from oil and gas to a net zero future.

Northern revitalisation – growing low carbon rural communities, capitalising on digital innovation and making the most of exceptional natural and cultural heritage.

Central urban transformation – transforming and pioneering a new era of low carbon urban living.

Southern sustainability – creating connected, liveable places which benefit from further investment and innovation.

North and West Coastal Innovation

4.3.2 This area broadly comprises the island communities of Shetland, Orkney, the Western Isles, and parts of Highland and Argyll and Bute including the north and west mainland coastline.

Regional Environmental Baseline

4.3.3 The area benefits from an exceptional environment with iconic coastal landscapes and is rich in biodiversity, sustaining many internationally significant ecological sites and species. There are around 900 offshore islands which vary in character from the dramatic coast of Shetland and the historic crofting landscapes of Orkney and the Outer Hebrides, to the iconic mountains of Skye, the rugged character of Mull and lower lying islands including Tiree and Islay. Each island and coastal area has a strong individual identity, a rich history and distinctive built heritage including the St Kilda and Neolithic Orkney UNESCO World Heritage Sites.

4.3.4 This area as a whole is of ecological importance, as reflected in the number of sites designated at international, national, and local levels in the marine, coastal and terrestrial environments.

4.3.5 The coasts, and the communities they support, are particularly exposed to climate change due to the effects of rising sea level, extreme weather events and also temperature and rainfall changes. Coastal erosion is a naturally occurring process that affects much of Scotland's coastline and is predicted to intensify with rising sea levels.

4.3.6 Connectivity is essential for the local economy with key centres where lifeline links provide access to the islands including Lerwick, Kirkwall, Stromness, Stornoway, Wick and Thurso, Ullapool, Mallaig and Oban, whilst Tarbert, Lochgilphead and Campbeltown are important hubs towards the south of the area. These centres provide important services to their wider hinterlands. Local projects are ongoing, including the regeneration of Stromness, the Stornoway Deep Water Port development, the linked Islands Growth Deal Outer Hebrides Energy Hub project in Stornoway, and the Islands Growth Deal Knab Redevelopment project in Shetland.

4.3.7 The draft NPF4 identifies the following priorities for this area:

• create carbon neutral coastal and island communities;
• support the blue and wellbeing economies;
• protect and enhance blue and green infrastructure; and
• strengthen resilience and decarbonise connectivity.

4.3.8 The proposed national developments relevant to this area include:

• National Walking, Cycling and Wheeling Network;
• Circular Economy Material Management Facilities;
• Digital Fibre Network;
• Islands Hub for Net Zero; and
• Strategic Renewable Electricity Generation and Transmission Infrastructure.

Potential for Regional Scale Cumulative Effects

4.3.9 The baseline highlights the number and range of protected sites within the area. The coastal proximity of relevant proposed national developments and key assets identified indicates that there is potential for cumulative effects on the coastal and marine environment which will require further consideration.

4.3.10 Some of the proposed developments located within this region will service renewable energy developments. Collectively, these proposals can contribute to Scotland's low carbon economy by safeguarding infrastructure and facilitating the further development of renewable energy generation in the region.

4.3.11 Improvements associated with these developments, which include electricity generation and transmission infrastructure, digital fibre network and transport infrastructure, should provide long term benefits for the area's communities and economy, whilst potentially reducing emissions in the energy and transport sectors.

4.3.12 A focus on creating carbon neutral coastal and island communities and to decarbonise connectivity, in addition to national developments such as the national walking, cycling and wheeling network have potential to reduce emissions and improve air quality, with associated positive effects on biodiversity and human health and wellbeing.

4.3.13 Protecting and enhancing blue and green infrastructure, and increasing community resilience to the effects of climate change which is of specific relevance to coastal communities, will have long term benefits. Investment in nature-based solutions can contribute to climate change resilience, while reducing emissions through carbon sequestration and improving air quality, water and soils with associated benefits for biodiversity and human health and wellbeing.

4.3.14 Where new infrastructure is required, impacts during construction phases may affect surrounding communities, habitats and species both individually or cumulatively. However, such impacts are expected to be managed and mitigated through the planning and consenting process and through the adoption of appropriate controls during the implementation stage. This may include the use of management planning, staging development works, timing of works outside of bird breeding periods, and use of sediment and erosion controls, amongst others. Several of the proposed developments are expected to be located on existing industrial or port sites, and where possible, use existing infrastructure. In such cases, the potential for adverse impacts on nearby sensitive areas may not be significant in light of existing development and activity at these sites.

4.3.15 In operational terms, there is also potential for cumulative impacts arising from increased activity in the region as a whole. The likely increase in marine vessel numbers associated with renewable energy development in Scapa Flow, from the servicing of marine energy installations, could have disturbance impacts on bird populations in the region. There is also potential for effects on valued landscapes or historic features. However any such impacts may be mitigated in the design stage of developments and will be considered through planning and consenting processes. Given the proximity of many of the proposed developments to protected coastal areas, these issues may require consideration in project-level environmental assessments (i.e. HRA/EIA of specific developments).

Northern Revitalisation

4.3.16 This area broadly includes Highland with parts of Argyll and Bute, Moray and much of the national parks. There are links west and north to the island communities.

Regional Environmental Baseline

4.3.17 These areas are world renowned for their stunning landscapes, rich biodiversity and cultural heritage. In some places settlements are dispersed or take the form of low density crofting townships, whilst in others communities come together in key centres including Inverness, Oban, Fort William, Thurso and Wick.

4.3.18 This area includes the Cairngorms National Park and much of Local Lomond National Park. Both are national assets with internationally significant habitats and landscapes. Further north, the Flow Country contains one of the world's largest areas of blanket bog with a wide range of vegetation and surface pattern types, including numerous pool systems. There are proposals to make the Flow Country a UNESCO World Heritage Site.

4.3.19 With large areas of forestry, peatland, blanket bog and vegetation, this area is important for carbon sequestration.

4.3.20 The coastline within this area contains numerous designated sites, including the Moray Firth itself with protected subtidal sandbanks, resident bottlenose dolphins, and a series of other important features, as reflected in its status as an SAC, SPA, Ramsar site and SSSI. The Dornoch Firth is also a National Scenic Area.

4.3.21 There are a wide range of cultural heritage features found throughout the region, including scheduled monuments, listed buildings, gardens and designated landscapes and archaeological sites.

4.3.22 The draft NPF4 identifies the following priorities for this area:

• strengthen networks of resilient communities;
• stimulate green prosperity;
• nurture nature-based solutions; and
• strengthen resilience and decarbonise connectivity.

4.3.23 The proposed national developments identified relevant to this area include:

• National Walking, Cycling and Wheeling Network;
• Circular Economy Material Management Facilities;
• Digital Fibre Network;
• Pumped Hydro Storage; and
• Strategic Renewable Electricity Generation and Transmission Infrastructure.

Potential for Regional Scale Cumulative Effects

4.3.24 A focus on a flexible approach to the concept of 20 minute neighbourhoods and national developments such as the National Walking, Cycling and Wheeling Network may lead to long term significant positive effects on climatic factors where a shift to more sustainable modes of travel leads to reductions in emissions. A potential increased uptake of low and zero emissions modes of travel will also create positive impacts on noise and air quality, particularly at a local level, with associated benefits for human health and biodiversity. This could be of particular relevance where air quality issues currently exist such as Air Quality Management Areas (AQMAs) and to those most vulnerable to the impacts of atmospheric pollution.

4.3.25 Positive effects on built material assets and emissions reduction targets may arise through a focus on refurbishing existing building stock to reduce the release of embedded carbon and delivering more affordable, energy efficient new homes. Further benefits on culture heritage may arise where buildings at risk are brought back into use, which may contribute positively to the character and sense of place. Positive effects on population and human health may arise through continued innovation of holistic place based solutions, such as the Rural Housing Initiative, and creation of homes that meet diverse community needs, including homes for an ageing population and to help young people to stay in or return to their communities.

4.3.26 A focus on nature-based solutions can create climate change adaptation opportunities, with additional benefits for biodiversity and population and human health.

4.3.27 As with the Coastal Innovation area, some of the proposals will support the renewable energy sector. Collectively, these proposals could make a substantial contribution to Scotland's low carbon agenda. Low carbon transport proposals will also contribute to these decarbonisation ambitions, particularly if used by communities for everyday use. However, these proposals may lead to negative impacts on biodiversity through loss of habitat, disturbance or land use change. Many of these impacts are expected to be managed through the planning and consenting process, and through adoption of control mechanisms in the construction stage. Further measures such as seasonal timing and staging of development works, and adoption of sediment and erosion controls at the site level can also reduce the significance of potential individual or cumulative impacts.

4.3.28 The proposals may impact on valued landscapes or historic environment assets. However, it is expected these would be addressed at the planning and project consenting stages.

4.3.29 Potential for cumulative environmental impacts on sensitive coastal and marine sites should be addressed in planning and contenting processes, including through project-level environmental assessment (i.e. HRA/EIA) where relevant.

North East Transition

4.3.30 This area broadly includes Aberdeen City and Aberdeenshire with links through Moray towards Inverness, and south towards the Tay estuary.

Regional Environmental Baseline

4.3.31 This area is amongst the most prosperous parts of Scotland, but has experienced significant economic challenges in recent years and has pockets of deprivation. The area comprises a mix of rural and urban communities, with the city of Aberdeen and a surrounding network of towns including Elgin, Huntly, Fraserburgh, Peterhead, Ellon, Inverurie and Stonehaven, and significant rural areas including more accessible countryside around Aberdeen city. Whilst parts of the area have experienced population decline, several settlements around Aberdeen have grown.

4.3.32 A wide range of cultural heritage and landscape features are found throughout the region, including listed buildings, gardens and designated landscapes and historic battlefields. Features within the vicinity of Aberdeen Harbour include Girldeness lighthouse (Category A-listed structure), Torry Point Battery and Balnagask motte scheduled monuments, St Fittick's Church (scheduled monument and Category B-listed structure).

4.3.33 The area contains numerous SPA, SAC and SSSI designated sites including, for example, the River Dee SAC at Aberdeen designated for freashwater pearl mussel, Atlantic salmon and otter and the Ythan Estuary, Sands of Forvie, Forvie and Meikle Loch SPA on the north east coast and the Gamrie and Pennan Coast SSSI to the north.

4.3.34 Several local air quality management areas (AQMA) in the region have been declared for vehicle emissions, including three within Aberdeen itself.

Potential for Regional Scale Cumulative Effects

4.3.35 The draft NPF4 identified the following priorities for this area:

• Transition to net zero;
• improve local liveability;
• regenerate coastal communities; and
• decarbonise connectivity.

4.3.36 The proposed national developments identified within this area include:

• National Walking, Cycling and Wheeling Network;
• Urban Mass/Rapid Transit Networks;
• Circular Economy Material Management Facilities;
• Digital Fibre Network;
• Industrial Green Transition Zones;
• Pumped Hydro Storage;
• Strategic Renewable Electricity Generation and Transmission Infrastructure; and
• Aberdeen harbour.

4.3.37 The focus on a transition to net zero with greener energy choices and proposals relating to Aberdeen Harbour will collectively contribute to the development of low carbon and zero emissions technologies for example through support for offshore wind, hydrogen production and carbon capture and storage. This will therefore support wider climate change objectives and emissions reductions targets.

4.3.38 Other proposals for improved local liveability and decarbonised connectivity, supported by proposed developments on urban mass/rapid transit networks and the National Walking, Cycling and Wheeling Network should provide benefits by reducing congestion and transport associated emissions. Measures to support a modal shift to lower carbon travel options will have a range of secondary benefits including reduced noise and improved air quality and health and wellbeing benefits. This could be of particular relevance in areas where air quality issues currently exist such as Air Quality Management Areas (AQMAs).

4.3.39 Generally, impacts such as soil sealing, reductions in soil, water and air quality, and disturbance from construction activities may occur at the site level, particularly where land take is required for developments. The timing of construction activities could be an important factor, and consideration should be given to cumulative effects on residential amenity and sensitive receptors. These potential impacts can be effectively managed through planning and consenting processes.

4.3.40 There is also potential for proposed developments to impact on historic assets located throughout the region, particularly within Aberdeen City and around Aberdeen Harbour. Consideration of potential impacts on conservation areas and opportunities to protect or enhance should be identified. Potential impacts can be addressed through the planning and consenting process, with mitigation applied.

4.3.41 Increased operational capacity in Aberdeen Harbour with associated increases in road traffic and vessel numbers could generate adverse effects on noise and air quality in the vicinity of the port. Potential adverse impacts from construction works and ongoing operations associated with these developments will be subject to greater consideration at the project level.

Central Urban Transformation

4.3.42 This area broadly covers central Scotland from the Glasgow city region and the Ayrshires in the west to Edinburgh city region in the east, including the Tay cities, the Forth Valley and Loch Lomond and The Trossachs National Park.

Regional Environmental Baseline

4.3.43 This area contains a significant share of essential national infrastructure with key industrial sites located in Grangemouth and Mossmorran, and port facilities including at Rosyth, Burntisland, Methil, Leith and Grangemouth. There are large urbanised and industrial areas particularly within much of the Glasgow conurbation where the industrial legacy in the region has left significant areas of contaminated, derelict or vacant land.

4.3.44 There are inequalities within each of the city regions, with local concentrations of economic deprivation. Overall, economic performance is higher in the cities of Edinburgh and Glasgow and lower in surrounding areas including Inverclyde, Ayrshire, along parts of the Clyde Coast and Lanarkshire.

4.3.45 Beyond the cities and towns there are many high quality environments, including areas of high landscape quality. Cultural heritage assets are found throughout the region, with internationally recognised sites such as the World Heritage Listed Old and New Towns in Edinburgh and the Antonine Wall which runs from modern Bo'ness on the Firth of Forth to Old Kilpartick on the River Clyde. The Forth Rail Bridge is also a World Heritage Site and this, with other historic assets including listed buildings such as Edinburgh Castle and historic gardens and designed landscapes, contribute to the landscape character of their respective areas.

4.3.46 The area has numerous protected biodiversity sites, the most notable being the SPAs, SACs, SSSIs and Ramsar sites in the coastal and in-shore areas of the Firths of Forth and Clyde, which supports a wide range of internationally and nationally important bird species including wildfowl, wading birds and breeding seabirds.

4.3.47 Multiple local air quality management areas (AQMA) have been declared in the area. While these are largely a result of vehicle emissions (Nitrogen dioxide and particulate matter), an area at Grangemouth encompassing the petrochemical complex has been declared for SO2

Potential for Regional Scale Cumulative Effects

4.3.48 The draft NPF4 identified the following priorities for this area:

• pioneer low carbon, resilient urban living;
• reinvent and future proof city centres;
• accelerate urban greening;
• rediscover urban coasts and waterfronts;
• reuse land and buildings;
• invest in net zero housing solutions;
• grow a wellbeing economy;
• reimagine development on the urban fringe; and
• improve urban accessibility.

4.3.49 The proposed national developments relevant to this area include:

• Central Scotland Green Network;
• National Walking, Cycling and Wheeling Network;
• Urban Mass/Rapid Transit Networks;
• Urban Sustainable, Blue and Green Drainage Solutions;
• Circular Economy Material Management Facilities;
• Digital Fibre Network;
• Industrial Green Transition Zone;
• Hunterston Strategic Asset;
• Strategic Renewable Electricity Generation and Transmission Infrastructure;
• High Speed Rail;
• Clyde Mission;
• Dundee Waterfront; and
• Edinburgh Waterfront.

4.3.50 Many of the proposed developments and initiatives identified in the spatial strategy have important environmental components, aiming to improve the quality of the built or natural environments. Several proposals specifically aim to improve the natural environment, including the Central Scotland Green Network. Others, such as those involving the redevelopment of industrial sites and using existing infrastructure where possible, such as Clyde Mission, could collectively provide significant environmental benefits by improving land, and local positive impacts on water, townscape and landscape, and human health. There is potential for benefits for biodiversity, water quality and reduced flood risk, particularly for the Inner Clyde, from the focus on resilient urban living and the Urban Sustainable, Blue and Green Drainage Solutions national development proposal.

4.3.51 At the regional level, a focus on accelerating urban greening through the Central Scotland Green Network and other initiatives, and reduced development on the urban fringe will have significant long term positive effects on biodiversity, with secondary benefits on townscape and landscape, water, air quality, soils and climatic factors through increased carbon sequestration. Significant effects on population and human health where well-designed and managed green infrastructure assets, particularly those that engage local communities and which relate to landscape character and heritage, can enhance local sense of place and foster community spirit.

4.3.52 Positive impacts may arise including for population and human health where infrastructure considerations are embedded at the heart of place making and support improved access to goods and services, particularly to vital services such as employment. Wider societal benefits may arise where a focus is given to reducing barriers for individuals or communities with specific needs, and where inequalities currently exist.

4.3.53 Further health and wellbeing benefits may arise where proposals lead to increased uptake of walking, wheeling and cycling though improved urban accessibility. Increased physical activity, improved access to outdoors, education, facilities and services, and quality local green spaces are likely to have long term significant positive effects on physical and mental health. Benefits can be maximised where improvements are focused on areas experiencing economic inequalities.

4.3.54 Reuse of brownfield land can have positive effects on climatic factors, where the creation of green infrastructure on previously developed land, and reduced pressure on greenbelt, can lead to increased carbon sequestration. The re-use of vacant and derelict land can also create more walkable and liveable environments, including through supporting active travel routes, with potential benefits associated with reduced emissions where a modal shift to low carbon travel options arises.

4.3.55 A potential increased uptake of low and zero emissions modes of travel will also create positive impacts on noise and air quality, particularly at a local level, with associated benefits for human health and biodiversity. This could be of particular relevance in areas where air quality issues currently exist such as Air Quality Management Areas (AQMAs) and to those most vulnerable to the impacts of atmospheric pollution.

4.3.56 There is potential for additional benefits to arise where remediation of vacant and derelict land supports climate change adaptation, for example, through broader benefits to ecosystem services leading to increased resilience or the provision of sustainable flood management infrastructure (e.g. SUDS) or wider promotion of green / blue networks.

4.3.57 Where buildings are reused, there is an opportunity to maintain, restore and repurpose historic assets to support sustainable placemaking. Cultural activity can also drive local economic activity and benefit community cohesion

4.3.58 There is potential for positive impacts where opportunities are sought to bring historic buildings at risk back into use, including where consideration is given to their role in placemaking and town centre regeneration. This also supports a circular economy and the reuse of existing assets.

4.3.59 Cumulative construction impacts may raise issues for surrounding areas and habitats. While this is already a relatively urbanised area, temporary impacts in disturbance and soil, water and air quality may occur from undertaking some construction activities. However, many impacts are expected to be managed at the project level including through the adoption of appropriate controls during the construction works (i.e. management planning, staging of land disturbances, sediment and erosion controls, dust suppression).

4.3.60 In operational terms, increased activity at development sites could potentially contribute to cumulative impacts on sensitive receptors. For example, this could generate local air quality issues from vehicle emissions in some areas, although at present, congestion and air quality is not a significant issue in this region. Changes in land use and likely increases in vehicle and vessel numbers accessing the Hunterston site, for example, may have the potential to disturb sensitive sites and species for example breeding bird populations identified in the Renfrewshire Heights SPA and Southannan Sands SSSI.

Southern Sustainability

4.3.61 This area broadly includes Dumfries and Galloway and The Scottish Borders, with links to the Ayrshires and Glasgow city region in the west and to the Edinburgh city region in the east.

Regional Environmental Baseline

4.3.62 The South of Scotland is strategically important with a strong sense of identity centred on networks of towns and villages, supported by distinctive landscapes and coasts. This is a place with a rich cultural heritage and exceptional environmental assets and natural resources. This area is ambitious for positive change in the coming years, and the immediate work to recover from the pandemic will form the basis of a longer term plan to respond to the challenges of climate change and support nature restoration and recovery.

4.3.63 Cultural heritage assets are scattered throughout the region in both coastal and inland areas, including a significant number of listed buildings, and designated gardens and designed landscapes such as Drumlanrig Castle. The area also includes numerous scheduled monuments, battlefields and conservation areas.

4.3.64 The area includes multiple designated sites. At an international level, designated sites include the Solway Firth SPA, and the Upper Solway Flats and Marshes Ramsar site, designated for a range of wintering waterbirds. The area also includes Castle Loch, Lochmaben SPA and Ramsar site, designated for pink-footed geese, and the Raeburn Flow SAC and Solway Mosses North SAC, both designated for raised bog habitats which are sensitive to air quality impacts.

Potential for Regional Scale Cumulative Effects

4.3.65 The draft NPF4 identified the following priorities for this area:

• create a low carbon network of towns;
• support sustainable development;
• innovate to sustain and enhance natural capital; and
• strengthen resilience and decarbonise connectivity.

4.3.66 The proposed national developments identified within this area include:

• National Walking, Cycling and Wheeling Network;
• Circular Economy Material Management Facilities;
• Digital Fibre Network;
• Pumped Hydro Storage;
• Chapelcross Power Station Redevelopment;
• High Speed rail;
• Strategic Renewable Electricity Generation and Transmission Infrastructure;
• Clyde Mission; and
• Stranraer Gateway.

4.3.67 Of the many designated and protected areas located within this region, many are located in coastal and inland more remote rural areas. Given the scattered nature of these sites in the region, the potential for significant environmental effects will depend on development locations and are likely to be site and development specific.

4.3.68 An emphasis on creating a low carbon network of towns with a tailored response to the 20 minute neighbourhood concept, and national developments such as the National Walking, Cycling and Wheeling Network may lead to long term significant positive effects on climatic factors as a shift to more sustainable modes of travel should lead to reductions in GHG emissions. A potential increased uptake of low and zero emissions modes of travel can also create positive impacts on noise and air quality, particularly at a local level, with associated benefits for human health and biodiversity.

4.3.69 Health and wellbeing benefits may arise where proposals lead to more people walking, wheeling and cycling. Increased physical activity, improved access to outdoors, education, facilities and services, and quality local green spaces are likely to have long term significant positive effects on physical and mental health.

4.3.70 Connectivity and accessibility to wider areas will be improved through proposed national developments such as high speed rail and Stranraer Gateway, and a focus on supporting sustainable development and a wellbeing economy will enable access to employment opportunities and facilitate regeneration of town centres. Further community benefits are likely to arise from regeneration and may support tourism development.

4.3.71 Positive effects on biodiversity should arise where opportunities to sustain and enhance natural capital are implemented through the creation of nature networks to support improved ecological connectivity, the creation of new or restoration of degraded habitats, or through measures to increase populations of priority species. Additionally, well-designed and managed green infrastructure assets, particularly those that engage local communities and which relate to landscape character and heritage, can enhance local sense of place and foster community spirit

4.3.72 Construction impacts of developments and infrastructure works have the potential to create temporary adverse impacts on surrounding habitats and species. Impacts on soil, water, noise and air quality are commonly associated with construction works and will require managed through the planning and consenting process or through the adoption of appropriate controls during the construction works (i.e. management plans, sediment and erosion controls).

4.3.73 In operational terms, increased activity at key sites and along transport routes is expected over the long term. In some instances, this could potentially contribute to cumulative impacts on sensitive receptors. This could generate local air quality issues from vehicle emissions in some areas.

Action Areas - Summary of Key Issues Requiring Regional or Local Mitigation

• Impacts to sensitive and protected sites, including designated sites and historic environment assets, should be assessed at plan and project level.
• Effects on biodiversity should be minimised through siting and design, and enhancement measures applied in keeping with national policy.
• Focus should be given to designing buildings, infrastructure and spaces which are adaptable to climate change.
• Opportunities should be sought to maintain, restore and repurpose historic assets to support sustainable placemaking.
• Development proposals should be designed to a high quality so that the scale and nature of the development contributes positively to the character and sense of place of the area.
• Impacts during construction phase should be managed, with consideration given to cumulative effects, to minimise potential adverse impacts on residential amenity and habitats and species.