Scotland 2045: fourth National Planning Framework - draft: integrated impact assessment - non-technical summary

4. Scotland's characteristics

4.1 Scotland's environment is rich in natural and cultural heritage. Our network of European protected sites supports many important and rare plants, birds and animals, however global declines in biodiversity are mirrored in Scotland. Scotland's air, soil and water are generally in good condition, but there are concentrations of pollution in some parts of the country. Some of this is historic, but there are also on-going challenges, including diffuse pollution from urban and rural areas. Scotland has high quality landscapes, with many iconic views and scenic areas supporting quality of life, recreation and tourism. The historic environment includes World Heritage Sites, listed buildings, conservation areas, gardens and designed landscapes and archaeology including scheduled monuments. Many archaeological resources remain undiscovered. Scotland also has many natural resources and material assets, including high quality agricultural land, and extensive areas of forestry and woodland. Global climate change is predicted to lead to more extreme weather events, increasing water temperature and acidity, a rise in sea levels and changes to coastlines; all of which have the potential to affect other aspects of the environment.

4.2 Scotland's population is estimated to be just under five and a half million. Scotland has the lowest life expectancy in Western Europe, and the overall population density in the country is among the lowest in Europe. Scotland's overall population is increasing, however there is significant variation in how people are distributed, with more densely populated areas in the Central Belt and decreasing population mainly in the rural and island areas, particularly in the west of the country. It is estimated that, without change, Scotland's Sparsely Populated Areas could experience further population decline, and a shrinking working age population. Around 94 of our 900 islands are permanently inhabited, and the size and composition of each population has changed over the years. An ageing population will mean that the Scottish Government needs to do more to reverse past patterns of population decline and sustain local facilities and services that support rural and dispersed communities.

4.3 Approximately 19% of Scotland's population live in relative poverty after housing costs. Some types of households with children are known to be at a particularly high risk of poverty. These include households with single parents, three or more children, disabled household members, of a minority ethnic background, with a child aged under one, or a mother aged under 25. The Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation is the Scottish Government's official tool to identify areas of multiple deprivation in Scotland, with the most deprived areas located predominantly in cities and towns. Approximately 30% of adults report having a long-term physical or mental health condition. Around 4% of people in Scotland are from minority ethnic groups - council areas with large cities have the highest proportion of their population from a minority ethnic group. People from minority ethnic (non-white) groups are more likely to be in relative poverty after housing costs, compared to those from the 'White-British' group. Just over half of Scotland's population identifies as following a Christian Religion. Scotland's communities of identity are important and more needs to be done to tackle the inequalities faced by them. Levels of perceived influence over local decision making have been consistently low over recent years, and across all subgroups of the population.

4.4 Agriculture is the dominant land use in Scotland, covering 5.64 million hectares, over 70% of the country. Food & Drink (including agriculture & fisheries); Creative Industries (including digital); Sustainable Tourism; Energy (including renewables); Financial & Business Services; and, Life Sciences are all identified as key to the Scottish economy. Academic evidence suggests the UK's exit from the EU has already had an impact on investment and the economy^[1] and the COVID-19 pandemic is causing harm to people's health, to Scotland's society and to the economy.