Scotland 2045: fourth National Planning Framework - draft: integrated impact assessment - non-technical summary

5. What are the key pressures and trends relevant to NPF4?

5.1 The Global Climate Emergency will continue to impact in Scotland, with changing weather patterns, and more frequent extreme weather. Warmer temperatures will result in rising sea levels, coastal flooding and loss of land to the sea.

5.2 Global declines in biodiversity are mirrored in Scotland with urbanisation recognised as a key pressure. From 1994 to 2016, 49% of Scottish species have decreased and 28% have increased in abundance^[2].

5.3 Societal challenges include long standing inequalities, including for health and wellbeing. The pandemic provides an opportunity to work towards net zero in a way which significantly improves our places, and to address longstanding inequality and eliminate discrimination. Planning and places play a crucial role in supporting health and physical activity and better places can help create the conditions for lifelong health and wellbeing for all. On a range of indicators people who live in deprived areas are faring worse than those in less deprived areas, these include: less likely to have access to greenspace; made visits to the outdoors; or living within 500 metres of vacant and derelict land and properties.

5.4 The COVID-19 pandemic has left a complex and far reaching social legacy. The pandemic has affected people's mental health, with women, young people and young carers, minority ethnic groups and those with an existing health diagnosis reporting greater impacts. Existing job market inequalities have been reinforced with women, disabled people and minority ethnic people (particularly minority ethnic women) facing persistent employment and pay gaps. Those in precarious employment, carers and lone parents, the majority of whom are women, have also experienced disproportionate impacts.

5.5 Scotland's economy grew at a rate of 4.7%^[3] over the second quarter of 2021 as Coronavirus restrictions have eased however Scottish businesses in the near term face challenges including ongoing rising input costs and competition for staff and some business sectors report shortages of materials. Many businesses are still deciding what to do long term on office space and some smaller businesses are opting to move out of city/town locations.

5.6 Recovery from the pandemic will be an opportunity to actively shape the future of Scotland's economy, setting the country on a pathway to a just transition and a wellbeing economy; one that is environmentally sustainable, enables businesses to thrive and innovate, and tackles the social inequalities that have been exacerbated by the pandemic.