Scotland 2045: fourth National Planning Framework - draft: lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions - research

Executive Summary

Please note that this research report relates to Draft NPF4. An updated version of this report relating to the Revised Draft NPF4 was published on 8 November 2022

1 This report provides findings from the assessment of lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions of proposed national developments. The assessment is based on descriptions of the proposed national developments as set out in the draft National Planning Framework 4 (NPF4).

2 The assessment of the proposed national developments considers direct effects and indirect effects on greenhouse gas emissions. Direct effects include, for example, the effects of construction of a development. Indirect effects include those which are enabled by the development, for example, electricity transmission infrastructure which supports renewable energy generation.

3 Many of the proposed national developments include multiple project elements. The assessment considers the greenhouse gas emissions from different elements of each proposed national development, before combining these effects.

4 The assessment is structured against the six emissions sectors of transport, electricity, buildings (heat), industrial, manufacturing and construction processes (including embodied carbon), waste, and land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF). Negative Emissions Technologies (NETs) are included for the assessment of the Industrial Green Transition Zones, which is the only national development for which this sector is relevant. The assessment considers greenhouse gas emissions against the baseline and from the project stages of construction, through operation to decommissioning.

5 The assessment provides initial separate conclusions on the overall direct effects and overall indirect effects, before combining these in an overall summary of effect. This concludes whether the effects of the proposed national development are net positive (decrease emissions) or net negative (increase emissions).

6 For some of the proposed national developments direct effects may increase emissions in the short term, but positive indirect effects may occur over the longer term. The overall summary provides a judgement on the balance of direct and indirect greenhouse gas emissions.

7 The proposed national developments are developments that the Scottish Ministers consider strongly support the draft NPF4 spatial strategy, i.e. are ‘needed’. Designation as a national development does not remove requirements for relevant consents to be obtained before development can begin and it follows that there is considerable uncertainty as to the detailed scale and location of development that would occur and around the implementation of new technologies. The assessment has therefore drawn on a number of assumptions based on the descriptions in the draft NPF4. Consequently, the overall summary of effect for each proposed national development may include a range in the scale of potential impacts on greenhouse gas emissions.

8 The overall summary of effect is therefore based on the detail provided at the time of the assessment, and the conclusion may alter depending on the nature and detail of the projects taken forward.

9 Table 0.1 below provides an overview of the overall summary of effect of the proposed national developments lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions on achieving national greenhouse gas emissions reductions targets.

Table 0.1 Overall summary of effects from each proposed National Development

• Aberdeen Harbour - Depending on the nature of the projects taken forward and considering both direct and indirect effects, the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions assessment concludes this development will likely have an overall net positive impact on achieving national greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets.
• Central Scotland Green Network - Depending on the nature of the projects taken forward and considering both direct and indirect effects, the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions assessment concludes this development will likely have an overall net positive impact on achieving national greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets.
• Chapelcross Power Station Redevelopment - Depending on the nature of the projects taken forward and considering both direct and indirect effects, the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions assessment concludes this development will likely have an overall net positive impact on achieving national greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets.
• Circular Economy Materials Management Facilities - Depending on the nature of the projects taken forward and considering both direct and indirect effects, the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions assessment concludes this development will likely have an overall net positive impact on achieving national greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets.
• Clyde Mission - Depending on the nature of the projects taken forward and considering both direct and indirect effects, the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions assessment concludes this development will likely have an overall net negative impact on achieving national greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets.
• Digital Fibre Network - Depending on the nature of the projects taken forward and considering both direct and indirect effects, the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions assessment concludes this development will likely have an overall negligible impact on achieving national greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets.
• Dundee Waterfront - Depending on the nature of the projects taken forward and considering both direct and indirect effects, the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions assessment concludes this development will likely have an overall net positive impact on achieving national greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets.
• Edinburgh Waterfront - Depending on the nature of the projects taken forward and considering both direct and indirect effects, the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions assessment concludes this development will likely have an overall net positive impact on achieving national greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets.
• High Speed Rail - Depending on the nature of the projects taken forward and considering both direct and indirect effects, the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions assessment concludes this development will likely have an overall net positive impact on achieving national greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets.
• Hunterston Strategic Asset - Depending on the nature of the projects taken forward and considering both direct and indirect effects, the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions assessment concludes this development will likely have an overall net positive impact on achieving national greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets.
• Industrial Green Transition Zones - Depending on the nature of the projects taken forward and considering both direct and indirect effects, the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions assessment concludes this development will likely have an overall net positive impact on achieving national greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets.
• Islands Hub for Net Zero - Depending on the nature of the projects taken forward and considering both the direct and indirect effects, the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions assessment concludes this development will likely have an overall net positive impact on achieving national greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets.
• National Walking, Cycling and Wheeling Network - Depending on the nature of the projects taken forward and considering both the direct and indirect effects, the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions assessment concludes this development will likely have an overall net positive impact on achieving national greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets.
• Pumped Hydro storage - Depending on the nature of the projects taken forward and considering both direct and indirect effects, the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions assessment concludes this development will likely have an overall net positive impact on achieving national greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets.
• Stranraer Gateway - Depending on the nature of the projects taken forward and considering both direct and indirect effects, the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions assessment concludes this development will likely have an overall net positive impact on achieving national greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets.
• Strategic renewable electricity generation and transmission infrastructure - Depending on the nature of the projects taken forward and considering both direct and indirect effects, the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions assessment concludes this development will likely have an overall net positive impact on achieving national greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets.
• Urban Mass/Rapid Transit Networks - Depending on the nature of the projects taken forward and considering both direct and indirect effects, the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions assessment concludes this development will likely have an overall net positive impact on achieving national greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets.
• Urban Sustainable Blue and Green drainage solutions - Depending on the nature of the projects taken forward and considering both direct and indirect effects, the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions assessment concludes this development will likely have an overall net positive impact on achieving national greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets.

10 The assessment concludes that considering both direct and indirect effects, the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions the proposed National Developments will make a positive contribution to the 2030 carbon reduction targets, helping to reduce emissions. Overall, the greatest contributions to sectoral emission reductions are likely to be in terms of electricity and, to a lesser extent, transport. While the Industrial, manufacture and construction processes sector is likely to experience the largest increase in direct emissions, it will enable direct and indirect emission reductions across other sectors.