Scotland 2045: fourth National Planning Framework - draft: lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions - research

3. Conclusions: Assessment of Effects by Emissions Sector

Introduction

3.1 This section of the report explores the cumulative impacts of the proposed National Developments on the transference of emissions by sector and carbon reduction targets.

Transport

3.2 In relation to emissions from transport, direct negative effects are identified from a number of proposed national developments that generate a large amount of travel or an increase in journeys. Increases in transport emissions also include some developments that are large scale construction projects and will generate construction related transport movements, although overall there is medium certainty that these negative effects are typically minor due to their short term duration.

3.3 Direct positive effects are identified from a smaller proportion of the proposed national developments, but these typically support sustainable travel on a national or regional scale and for a significant proportion of the population. This includes both active travel and rail or mass transit networks proposed national developments.

3.4 Indirect effects on transport emissions are positive where they are identified. These effects typically result from support for low carbon fuel (an element of several developments), travel reductions and modal shift.

3.5 There is considerable uncertainty over the scale of the emissions reduction for transport, due to reliance on modal shift to sustainable transport. However, it is assumed that the cumulative effect of a number of transport improvements will support the overall ease of use of the sustainable travel network and encourage further uptake. The developments are in the most densely populated areas of Scotland, impacting a larger proportion of the population and therefore effects are likely to be more significant.

Electricity

3.6 For emissions from electricity, the majority of developments are likely to result in a minor increase in demand for electricity with potential minor negative effects at a project level. There is high level of certainty over the impact of increased electricity demand. This is balanced by the positive direct effects from a number of developments which support low carbon or renewable electricity production at varying scales, including projects with large scale or national impact over a long time period. However, there is lower certainty over the scale of renewable energy directly resulting from the developments.

3.7 Indirect positive effects include renewable energy related research, innovation and support for wider roll out, including support for offshore renewables, energy storage and electricity transmission infrastructure. These indirect effects have potential to impact at a national scale, over a long time period, although there is a higher level of uncertainty over the scale of the multiplier and enabling effect,

3.8 For electricity the emissions reductions identified result from increased support for renewable energy generation and transmission infrastructure, energy storage, and research and development. It is recognised that due to the high proportion of renewable energy generation currently within Scotland that these emissions savings will be less significant compared to the baseline but that they relate to electricity storage and also supporting the role of electricity in decarbonising emissions from other sectors.

Buildings (heat)

3.9 Direct negative effects on buildings and demand for heat are largely limited to minor and project specific increases in heat demand, reflecting the nature of the proposed national developments which are largely infrastructure projects not directly related to heat. Increased heat demand is only identified for developments with a larger residential component, for which there is uncertainty over the heating source for these developments.

3.10 Only positive indirect effects are identified, and these are also limited to the potential use of waste heat or production of low carbon fuels with potential for use for domestic heat or cooking at a minor scale, although there is low certainty over how these fuels will be deployed in the long term, and the level of widespread use.

3.11 The impact on emissions from buildings (heat) is likely to be negligible, mainly due to the scope of the proposed national developments which are not strongly related to this emissions sector and particularly in relation to the uncertainty around the use of sustainable or low carbon heating for the majority of the proposed national developments.

Industrial, manufacture and construction processes

3.12 Direct effects on greenhouse gas emissions related to industrial, manufacture and construction processes are typically negative across the national developments, reflecting high certainty over the carbon intensity of the materials required for the construction and maintenance of the proposed developments, and the large scale of these developments.

3.13 Positive indirect effects are identified for those developments that enable the production of low carbon fuel for use in industrial, manufacture and construction processes, although there is a higher level of uncertainty over the scale of these developments.

3.14 The impact on emissions from industrial, manufacture and construction processes is balanced between the high carbon intensity of materials required for a number of the proposed national developments, and the enabling effects of the proposed national developments on providing low carbon fuels for use in industry. Due to the levels of uncertainty around the role of the proposed national developments in providing low carbon fuel, and the lack of proposed national developments which support innovation in reducing emissions from this sector, particularly construction, the balance is likely to be marginally negative.

Waste

3.15 Direct negative effects on emissions from waste largely relate to the potential for increased waste generation from new developments, however this is likely to be minor in scale, due to the nature of the developments and there is high confidence in this conclusion. Positive direct effects on emissions are identified from the circular economy materials management facilities, and these are likely to be national, over a long time period. However, the balance between the baseline and the emissions savings from materials reprocessing is uncertain. The only indirect effects identified are in relation to this same national development, where further positive effects are identified through support for other businesses to reuse new materials.

3.16 For waste the proposed focus on materials management facilities to support a circular economy is likely to support waste management in Scotland, reducing emissions from waste and also from industrial, manufacture and construction processes based on reduced extraction of virgin materials. There is considerable uncertainty over the extent to which emissions from waste will be reduced overall, due to the impact of emissions from the movement and reprocessing of waste materials.

LULUCF

3.17 Direct negative effects on emissions from LULUCF relate primarily to emissions from disturbance to soil and vegetation from construction. Minor positive effects relate to construction on brownfield sites, and the associated avoidance of effects on greenfield sites, and the inclusion of landscaping or green infrastructure within a development. The most widespread positive effects from new planting relate to the development of the National Walking, Cycling and Wheeling Network and the Central Scotland Green Network. The level of positive effect is uncertain, as the scale of effects is sub-national.

3.18 No indirect effects are identified in relation to LULUCF.

3.19 The impact on emissions from LULUCF relates to the scale of the proposed national developments, and significant use of previously developed land. The majority of the proposed national developments are local in scale or involve previously developed land. The positive effects from the national developments which support enhanced green infrastructure over a much larger land area are likely to result in a net positive effect on emissions from this sector. Due to uncertainty over any increase in carbon sequestration or reduction in emissions from land as a result of management changes, this positive effect is likely to be marginal.

Negative Emissions Technologies (NETs)

3.20 Only the Industrial Green Transition Zone includes NETs and there is uncertainty of the scale of this development. However NETs will achieve direct emissions reductions.

Summary

3.21 The proposed national developments are likely to result in a net reduction in emissions for transport, electricity and waste overall. Effects on LULUCF are likely to be a marginal net reduction in emissions. Effects on industrial, manufacture and construction processes are likely to increase emissions overall, and effects on buildings (heat) are likely to be negligible.

Contribution to Scotland’s carbon reduction targets

Direct emissions

3.22 Considerable uncertainties underpin the assessment of lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions associated with proposed National Developments. As a result, it is not possible to quantify precisely the contribution that individual National Developments, or the entire suite of National Developments, will make to the carbon reduction targets set out in Scotland's Climate Change Plan. However, reference to the sectoral benchmarking exercise used to guide the assessment makes it possible to draw some broad conclusions about the possible impacts of National Developments on these targets.

3.23 National Developments making the largest contributions to direct emission reductions are likely to include Pumped Hydro Storage, Strategic Renewable Electricity Generation and Transmission Infrastructure, the Central Scotland Green Network, National Walking, Cycling and Wheeling Network, High Speed Rail and Urban Mass/Rapid Transit Networks. National Developments resulting in the largest increases in direct emissions are likely to include Islands Hub for Net Zero, Industrial Green Transition Zones, Clyde Mission, Aberdeen Harbour, Dundee and Edinburgh Waterfronts and Stranraer Gateway, largely as result of the construction works involved. Many will deliver indirect emissions savings.

3.24 Taken together, it is estimated that the total direct emissions associated with proposed National Developments could be positive or negative and are likely to lie in a range between an increase in emissions equivalent to up to 7% of the 2030 emissions reduction target, and a reduction in emissions equivalent to up to 15% of the target. The total direct contribution of National Developments to sector targets are likely to be greatest for transport (between 7.5% and 33% of the sector target) and electricity (between 5% and 25% of the sector target). In total, National Developments are likely to result in net increases in direct emissions for industrial manufacturing and construction processes, buildings and waste sectors.

Indirect effects

3.25 The indirect effects of National Developments on greenhouse gas emissions are even more uncertain, reflecting the inherent uncertainty as to the detailed scale and location of development that will be realised and changes in behaviour that will be enabled by National Developments and the influence of factors such as investment, technological advances and consenting mechanisms. Reflecting these uncertainties, indirect effects have only been qualitatively assessed at a broad scale. However, the assessment concluded that the Strategic Renewable Electricity Generation and Transmission Infrastructure National Development is likely to deliver the greatest indirect emission reductions.

Overall effects

3.26 The assessment concludes that it is most likely that, considering both direct and indirect effects, the lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions of the proposed National Developments will make a positive contribution to the 2030 carbon reduction targets, helping to reduce emissions. Overall, the greatest contributions to sectoral emission reductions are likely to be in terms of transport and electricity. While the Industrial, manufacture and construction processes sector is likely to experience the largest increase in direct emissions, it will enable direct and indirect emission reductions across other sectors.