Scotland's Carbon Footprint 1998-2020

Table 1 outlines how the Carbon Footprint has been categorised for this publication

Figure 2 shows Scotland’s carbon footprint, broken down into three main components, from 1998 to 2020.

• Greenhouse gas emissions embedded in imported goods and services from overseas accounted for 45.9 per cent of Scotland’s carbon footprint in 2020, up from 37.4 per cent in 1998.
• Greenhouse gas emissions embedded in UK produced goods and services accounted for 32.1 percent of Scotland’s carbon footprint in 2020, down from 44.5 per cent in 1998.
• Greenhouse gas emissions directly produced by Scottish residents accounted for 22.0 percent of Scotland’s carbon footprint in 2020, up from 18.1 per cent in 1998.

Figure 2: Emissions embedded in imports have shown considerable volatility over the period.  Domestic sources of emissions have been much more stable with a generally reducing trend.

Scotland’s Carbon Footprint, by main component, 1998 to 2020. Values in MtCO2e

Additionally, Figure 2 shows that:

• All sources of consumption emissions fell in the latest year.
• Greenhouse gas emissions associated with imported goods and services increased from 27.3 MtCO2e in 1998 to their peak in 2007 of 37.4 (an increase of 37.1 per cent over this time period). At their peak, these emissions accounted for 46.1 per cent of Scotland’s carbon footprint.
• Between 2007 and 2020, greenhouse gas emissions embedded in imported goods and services fell by 40.2 per cent; this compares with a 18.0 per cent reduction in emissions embedded in imports over the whole time period from 1998 to 2020.
• Greenhouse gas emissions relating to the consumption of UK produced goods and services by Scottish residents fell from 32.5 MtCO2e in 1998 to 15.6 in 2020 - a fall of 51.9 per cent. There was a strong trend reduction in emissions from UK produced goods and services from 2007.
• Greenhouse gas emissions generated directly by Scottish residents have fallen from 13.3 MtCO2e in 1998 to 10.8 MtCO2e in 2020 - a fall of 18.9 per cent over this time period.

Figure 3: In total, the carbon footprint fell by 24.3 MtCO2e (33.3 per cent) between 1998 and 2020.

Change in Scotland’s Carbon Footprint between 1998 and 2020 in MtCO2e and percentage changes

Figure 3 shows that between 1998 and 2020:

• Greenhouse gas emissions from Scottish consumption of UK production have seen the greatest absolute reduction over this time period (16.9 MtCO2e; a 51.9 per cent reduction), reflecting the emissions-reduction in territorial emissions seen in Scotland and the rest of the UK over this period.
• Greenhouse gas emissions embedded in imports directly used by Scottish consumers have decreased by 1.8 MtCO2e ( a 19.5 per cent decrease).
• Emissions embedded in imports used by UK businesses for Scottish consumption have decreased by 3.1 MtCO2e (a 17.2 per cent decrease )
• Greenhouse gas emissions generated directly by households (via heating and personal transport) have decreased by 2.5 MtCO2e (a 18.9 per cent decrease )

Figure 4: Scotland’s carbon footprint has fallen by 32.5 MtCO2e ( 40.0 per cent) from peak levels in 2007 to 2020.

Change in Scotland’s Carbon Footprint between 2007 and 2020 in MtCO2e and percentage changes.

Figure 4 shows that between 2007 and 2020:

• Greenhouse gas emissions associated with Scottish consumption of UK produced goods and services decreased by 15.0 MtCO2e (a fall of 49.0 per cent).
• Emissions embedded in Scottish direct consumption of imports fell by 6.6 MtCO2e ( a fall of 46.8 per cent).
• Emissions embedded in imports used by UK businesses for Scottish consumption decreased by 8.4 MtCO2e (a fall of 36.2 per cent).
• Greenhouse gas emissions directly emitted by Scottish households have seen smaller reductions of 2.4 MtCO2e (a fall of 18.2 per cent).

Figure 5: Scotland’s carbon footprint fell by 6.4 MtCO2e ( 11.5 per cent) in the latest year.

Change in Scotland’s Carbon Footprint between 2019 and 2020 in MtCO2e and percentage changes

Figure 5 also shows that between 2019 and 2020:

• Embedded emissions in imports directly consumed in Scotland fell by 0.8 MtCO2e ( 9.3 per cent).
• Emissions embodied in Scottish consumption of UK production fell by 3.2 MtCO2e ( 17.1 per cent).
• Emissions embedded in imports used by UK businesses for Scottish consumption fell by 1.0 MtCO2e ( 6.3 per cent).
• The level of emissions directly generated by Scottish households fell by 1.4 MtCO2e ( 11.3 per cent).

Figure 6: Around 54.1 per cent of embedded emissions associated with the consumption of goods and services in Scotland, originate from the UK.

Sankey diagram of embedded emissions sources related to Scottish final consumption in 2020.

Additionally, Figure 6 above shows:

• Imported emissions account for around 45.9 per cent of total consumption-based emissions; with the European Union, China and Rest of World (excluding other named areas) being the largest sources.
• A majority of imported emissions are indirectly consumed by Scottish households and other final demand sectors in the form of components and raw materials used within UK businesses.
• Households account for the overwhelming majority (around 66.7 per cent) of consumption-based emissions.
• Central and Local Government combined account for 21.4 per cent of consumption emissions; and capital investment and other types of capital formation accounting for a further 11.9 per cent of total consumption-based emissions.

Figure 7: Over a quarter of embedded emissions in imports originate from the European Union in 2020.

Breakdown of Scotland’s embedded greenhouse gas emissions by region of import, 1998 to 2020. Values in MtCO2e

• The most striking aspect of the above chart relates to the very rapid increase in embedded emissions from China between 1999 and 2007, followed by rapid reductions in the two years immediately afterward. Between 2014 and 2017, these emissions decreased consistently but show modest growth in 2020.
• Consumption emissions from Rest of World effectively plateaued during the period 2003-2007 and have shown a declining trend since that time.
• Embedded emissions originating from Russia and the USA have shown considerable year-on-year volatility although they have shown a generally reducing trend across the time-series and have reduced by 43.9 per cent (Russia) and 60.4 per cent (USA) since 1998.
• In 2020, embedded emissions from the European Union represented 27.4 of total imported emissions.
• Embedded emissions from China, India and the Middle East are the only regions to show increased emissions over the period 1998-2020.