Circular economy and waste route map to 2030: business and regulatory impact assessment

Option 1: No policy change – business as usual

39. Business as usual is the baseline against which the costs and benefits of the implementation of the CEWRM interventions will be assessed.

40. This baseline accounts for policies and regulation that are expected to come into force and that will impact on the policy options covered in the CEWRM. Included are ending the practice of landfilling Biodegradable Municipal Waste (2025), the reformed UK packaging producer responsibility system (2025), and the ban on single-use vapes (2025).

41. As outlined in the CEWRM, while these activities are anticipated to have a positive impact on the trajectory of a circular economy in Scotland, more activity is needed to maximise progress towards sustainable resource objectives and inform the creation of new indicators that consider more than weight of materials. While measures, such as packaging Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR), would transfer some costs from public to private obligation in line with the producer pays principle,^[25] alone they would not fundamentally address the linear nature of the economy or the wider cost burden on both public and private sectors, as well as communities, of dealing with waste and other associated environmental impacts.

42. Many of the negative environmental externalities associated with the linear economy will continue to remain undervalued. For example, inefficiencies, unsustainable resource use and waste through production, consumption and exchange of goods and services, leading to environmental damage. The more materials we extract and use, the more damage we do to the climate and to nature; material consumption and waste are drivers of nearly every environmental problem we currently face, from water scarcity to habitat and species loss.

Costs and Benefits (no policy change)

43. No additional financial costs or burdens will be placed directly on local authorities, enforcement bodies or businesses in Scotland. However, the positive economic and environmental impacts and opportunities from a circular economy outlined in the route map will not be fully realised, and the cost of waste and its environmental externalities will continue to be borne by public bodies, businesses, and communities. For example, the costs related to disposal of waste and litter collection. Looking at one element of waste and litter collection such as single-use items like cups shows the extent of the problem. It is estimated that around 388 million single-use disposable beverage cups are used in Scotland each year and this could rise to 450 million by 2035.^[26] Scotland’s current cup use creates 5,441.8 tonnes of waste every year, of which 96% is landfilled. As a result, in total, local authorities in Scotland currently spend approximately £1,164,000 a year on waste collection and disposal for cups. Without intervention it is not clear that either a reduction in waste arisings for single-use cups, or a transfer of the cost burden, would occur.