Scotland's circular economy and waste route map to 2030

Chapter 1. Introduction and case for change

Introduction: A circular economy in Scotland

A circular economy, based on sustainable consumption and production, is essential to power Scotland's transition to a fair, green and sustainable economy, and critical to meeting our obligations to tackle the twin climate and nature emergencies.

Material consumption and waste are primary drivers of nearly every environmental problem Scotland currently faces, from water scarcity to habitat and species loss.

Around four-fifths of Scotland's carbon footprint comes from the products and services we manufacture, use and throw away and 90% of global biodiversity loss and water stress are caused by extraction and processing of these products.

The Scottish Government is committed to delivering a different approach to our economy, one where we move from a "take, make and dispose" model to one where we value materials and keep them in use for as long as possible.

We recognise this will be a challenging task and to achieve this Scotland needs to fundamentally change how it produces, consumes and manages resources. The update to the Climate Change Plan set out our circular economy vision that by 2045 Scotland's cultural, social and business norms will be driven by a focus on:

• Responsible Production, where a circular economy is embraced by the businesses and organisations that supply products, ensuring the maximum life and value from the natural resources used to make them.
• Responsible Consumption, where people and businesses demand products and services in ways which respect the limits of our natural resources. Unnecessary waste, in particular food waste, will be unacceptable in Scotland.
• Maximising Value from Waste and Energy, where the environmental and economic value of waste and energy is harnessed efficiently.

Purpose

Why do we need the Circular Economy and Waste Route Map?

Much has changed since most of our current waste targets were set in 2010. The climate emergency has intensified our focus on emissions reduction, and how we view and treat our precious resources.

We can see the day-to-day impacts that climate change and the nature crises are having on our communities, our society, our economic wellbeing, and our environment – both here in Scotland and globally.

Founded on evidence and collaboration, the Route Map is part of the Scottish Government's wider response to these challenges, sitting alongside a range of other strategies and plans (see Strategic context for changebelow). It is designed to drive progress on three key fronts:

1. Setting the strategic direction and laying foundations for how we will deliver our system-wide, comprehensive vision for Scotland's circular economy from now to 2030. The shift to a circular economy can help realise the economic growth potential associated with climate action.

2. Setting out priority actions from now to 2030 to accelerate more sustainable use of our resources across the waste hierarchy. We acknowledge the progress we have made against our existing 2025 waste reduction and recycling targets, the areas where we have fallen short, and the lessons we can learn as we set out the framework for what comes next.

3. Reducing emissions associated with resources and waste. The Route Map sets out the opportunities we will take to decarbonise the waste sector ahead of the draft Climate Change Plan, to be published in 2025, and our approach to tackling the whole-life climate impact^[1] of Scotland's resource management and waste.

The development of the Route Map

This document is the final Route Map and takes into account the feedback from two consultations that were held in 2022 and in early 2024.^[2] It outlines our priorities for delivery through to 2030, and how we will deliver and coordinate these actions to achieve maximum positive impact for communities and businesses in Scotland. It is aimed at everyone who has a role to play: the people and communities of Scotland, businesses, the third sector, and the public sector, including local government.

This level of transformation will take time, and we set out our intention later in this Route Map to develop a circular economy strategy every five years from 2026 (see 'Strengthen the circular economy' section), alongside new circular economy targets by 2027. The strategy will build from the Route Map's framework, taking a longer-term view of what is needed to deliver a circular economy.

Both the preparation of the strategy and setting of targets are requirements under the Circular Economy (Scotland) Act 2024 ('the Circular Economy Act').^[3] The Act, passed unanimously by the Scottish Parliament in June 2024, contains provisions to underpin Scotland's transition to a circular economy, and modernise Scotland's waste and recycling services. The Act includes new powers that will allow us to take action now and into the future. The direction and actions set out in this Route Map are complemented by the new powers in the Act and, in some places, are dependent on these powers.

Case for change

Scotland's waste and recycling targets

To drive progress towards our circular economy goals, Scotland has had a set of waste and recycling targets in place for over the past decade, spanning the waste hierarchy (see Figure 1 below):^[4]

• 15% reduction of all waste by 2025, against 2011 levels
• 33% reduction of food waste by 2025, based on 2013 baseline
• Minimum of 60% recycling of household waste by 2020
• Minimum of 70% recycling of all waste by 2025
• Maximum 5% of all waste to landfill by 2025
• A ban on all biodegradable municipal waste going to landfill by 2025

As the 2022 and 2024 consultations set out, Scotland has made good long-term progress towards reaching these ambitions.

The total amount of waste going to landfill in Scotland has halved over the past decade (2.3 million tonnes or 23% of all waste managed was sent to landfill in 2022) and over 62% of waste was recycled in 2022. In the same year, we met our 2025 target to reduce all waste by 15% for the second year in a row.

Table 1 below summarises the progress against these targets. In addition, Scotland had a target to recycle and reuse 70% of construction and demolition waste by 2020. This target has been met every year since 2011.

The cumulative impact of these targets on net zero objectives has been positive. Based on Zero Waste Scotland estimates, these targets were initially expected to reduce Scotland's annual waste carbon impact by 22% below 2011 levels, or 3.1 MtCO2e, by 2025. As of 2018, estimates suggest that Scotland had already surpassed this, achieving carbon savings of 4.6 MtCO2e, 30% below 2011 baseline levels.^[5]

Despite this progress, in some areas progress has not been at the pace and scale required. While the 2025 targets have provided a good platform for progress over the past decade, we know from the Route Map's analysis that they are not universally the best indicators to deliver our circular economy, emissions and nature objectives.^[6] 'All waste' tonnage-based targets do not account for the varying environmental or carbon impact of individual materials. This was reinforced by Climate Change Committee advice to the Scotland Government and Parliament, which recommended that Scotland "set targets to reduce waste and improve recycling rates beyond 2025… on the basis of separate waste streams (rather than 'All waste') and where possible consider carbon-based metrics."^[7]

The Route Map's review of our resources and waste system found that the sustainable choices are still not the easy choices for households, businesses or those in the waste sector, and large-scale and rapid system change is required to drive progress, and ensure a more rapid transition to net zero and a fully circular economy in Scotland.^[8]

As we set out what comes next to 2030 through this Route Map and the Circular Economy Act, we recognise the role 2025 targets have played, and the lessons we can learn moving forward. The actions set out in this Route Map are designed to chart what must come next to deliver the pace and scale required to meet our resources and circular economy objectives – including the role of future targets and the development of a longer-term strategy.

Climate targets

The Scottish Government has set climate change ambitions to become a net zero greenhouse gas emitting nation by 2045.^[10] We have committed to doing this in a way that is just and fair for all people across Scotland and realises the economic growth potential associated with climate action. We know we must also take responsibility for our global carbon footprint associated with the goods and services we import.

Waste sector emissions

The 2020 Climate Change Plan update^[11] set out emission 'envelopes' for each sector, including waste, which reflect the overall pathway to net zero by 2045.

Within Scotland total greenhouse gas emissions have approximately halved since 1990, with waste management sector emissions reducing even faster during that period. In 2022, the waste management sector emissions stood at 1.6 MTCO2e, 75% lower than the 6.5 MtCO2e in 1990.^[12] The subsector covering waste incineration with energy recovery has its carbon dioxide emissions accounted for under the electricity sector, rather than waste management. Emissions from energy from waste were around 0.3 MtCO2e in 2022, representing 19.5% of electricity generation emissions.

While progress has been made to reduce sector emissions, to achieve the emissions envelope set out in the Climate Change Plan update, we must more than halve waste sector emissions from their current position (1.6 MtCO2e in 2022), to 0.7 MtCO2e by 2032. As part of this process, we must look at all sources of greenhouse gas emissions across the resources and waste sector, including legacy emissions from landfill sites and critical opportunities to decarbonise incineration, as outlined in the independent review of incineration and its role in the waste hierarchy.^[13]

Scotland's carbon footprint

Scotland's emissions reduction targets, set out in the Climate Change Plan, are based on emissions from sources located here in Scotland, mainly around disposal. However, we know we must also take responsibility for the larger carbon footprint associated with the waste produced here in Scotland, and the wider global impact from the goods and services we import.^[14]

Although the waste management sector now only directly accounts for around 4% of total Scottish greenhouse gas emissions as reported through the Climate Change Plan, over 90% of the carbon impact of Scotland's waste is produced well before disposal, at the materials production stage. In 2018, the annual whole-life carbon impact of Scotland's waste was 10.6 MtCO2e.^[15]

Looking beyond the waste we produce, around four-fifths of Scotland's total carbon footprint comes from the products and services we manufacture, use and throw away.^[16] This underlines the work we must undertake together: sustainable resource use is key to tackling climate change and will be vital for other sectors to deliver their own net zero goals as well as dealing with resource constraints.

Strategic context for change

Our work to deliver a circular economy and drive sustainable resource management does not sit apart from the world we live in and the major challenges we collectively face. It directly supports the Scottish Government's priorities of growing the economy, tackling the climate emergency and improving Scotland's public services, whilst indirectly supporting the reduction in child poverty.^[17]

By delivering a circular economy in Scotland and driving progress through the priority actions in this Route Map, we can support:

Our economy: Opening up new market opportunities, improving productivity, saving money, and increasing self-sufficiency and resilience by reducing reliance on international supply chains and global shocks. The shift to a circular economy can help Scotland realise the economic growth potential associated with climate action. Our waste reduction and recycling outcomes support progress towards the National Performance Framework outcome for the economy, and our strategy for economic transformation^[18] recognises that the circular economy represents an enormous economic and industrial opportunity for Scotland as part of this transformation.

Our climate: Sustainable resource use is key to tackling climate change and improving our environment. Although the waste management sector only directly accounts for around 4% of total Scottish greenhouse gas emissions, we know we must also take responsibility for the full lifecycle impact of waste and our global carbon footprint. Our circular economy objectives are core pillars of our Environment Strategy and its outcomes.^[19] Creating sustainable growth is a key part of the Scottish Government's purpose and the circular economy contributes to a range of UN Sustainable Development Goals.^[20] A primary driver of biodiversity loss internationally is the extraction and manufacture of raw materials, and the disturbance of soils, which are only recently being fully recognised as extremely important ecosystems. Our biodiversity strategy^[21] sets out the outcomes needed to halt biodiversity loss by 2030 and restore and regenerate biodiversity by 2045. The supporting delivery plan includes key actions the circular economy can make to achieving these key milestones.

Our society: Strengthening communities by providing local employment opportunities, lower-cost options to access the goods Scotland needs, and tackling existing inequalities. As we continue to face economic challenges, the rapid, just transition to a more circular economy is needed more than ever and can contribute to our central mission to eradicate child poverty. The transition to a circular economy is challenging but is a major opportunity to transform our economy, our communities and our lives for the better.

Our public services: Supporting public services to become more sustainable, improving productivity and reducing waste. Modernising recycling, reuse and waste services will be co-designed with communities to ensure households and businesses are at the heart of how services are designed and operate.

Our role in the world: Sustainable consumption and production also alleviate pressures on the natural world and its finite resources globally. This can directly help Scotland meet its obligations to tackle the twin climate and nature emergencies through a just transition, showing genuine climate leadership and playing our full part on the global stage.

Our approach

Our strategic aims

Measures in chapter 2 are grouped under four strategic aims, which reflect the span of the waste hierarchy. These strategic aims are outlined in Figure 2, and the text below.

More information about each strategic aim and its objectives is outlined in chapter 2, but in summary they cover the following:

Reduce and reuse: Reducing waste and reusing resources are the top goals of the waste hierarchy and central to changing our relationship with materials and products. Building an economic system that moves away from being based on items that are designed to be disposable brings significant environmental and economic benefits.

Modernise recycling: Increasing the amount of materials recycled and increasing the proportion of these recycled in Scotland will deliver emission reductions, reduce the environmental impacts associated with extracting new raw materials, and create a range of important economic opportunities to reprocess and reuse materials.

Decarbonise disposal:While our focus is to prevent materials from becoming waste in the first place, we want to ensure that materials that cannot be avoided, reused or recycled are managed in a way that minimises environmental and climate impacts, encourages management of materials further up the waste hierarchy, and minimises broader societal impacts.

Strengthen the circular economy: We must maintain a strategic approach to the delivery of a circular economy, ensuring the right structures and support are in place to enable action across the economy, robustly monitoring and evaluating progress.

Our approach

Throughout the development of the Route Map, our approach has been underpinned by five guiding principles that have shaped its vision, aims and priorities, and will guide its implementation.

We take a whole system approach. The way that material flows around the economy is complicated and influenced by everyone in the supply chain. Considering the whole system – including our global footprint –is vital for prioritising and delivering measures, and we draw out the interdependencies and cross-cutting themes spanning our priority actions. This includes a 'material-first' approach, where we take a targeted, coordinated approach to materials across the waste hierarchy, recognising the variations in emissions and environmental impact.

We are ambitious and agile. No country has yet identified a long-term pathway to achieving zero waste and a circular economy. We must be brave and bold, learn by doing, and be agile. We must consider actions that have the potential to drive future change, even if they are not ready yet, and therefore set out a range of actions at different levels of development.

We are evidence driven. Not all the answers are known at this stage. We are led by a clear evidence-driven approach that underpins our priority actions and investments. We published new research throughout the development of the Route Map to address gaps in evidence. This is an approach we will continue to take: areas for further research, and some of the barriers to overcome, are highlighted in this document as part of implementation of our actions.

We are fair and inclusive. The system-wide change we need must be designed and delivered in a fair and inclusive way. We are committed to ensuring that future generations are not unfairly burdened, and that existing inequalities are tackled, not exacerbated. This is directly contributing to the Scottish Government's national mission to eradicate child poverty. A Just Transition is key to this. It includes considering opportunities for training/re-training and employment to create fair work, and a more sustainable material footprint and through the creation of markets and processes for used materials. Increased reuse also requires significant expansion of premises for collection, storage, and retail offering local economic benefits.

Everyone must play their part. Achieving our waste, recycling and wider emissions reduction objectives is a shared endeavour. We know a circular economy can only be delivered through a "Team Scotland" approach, defined by collaboration and co-design. Collaboration and partnership have been critical to our progress so far, and we can only be successful if everyone plays their part – government, households, communities, charities and businesses. Our approach has been and will continue to be guided by both the Verity House Agreement and New Deal for Business Group's recommendations and implementation plan.^[22]

Cross-cutting themes

There are key cross-cutting themes, which underpin the actions and transformation we need to deliver. These themes are highlighted throughout chapter 2, and include:

• Behaviour change: Urgent, system-wide change is required if we are to achieve our ambitions. The first consultation set out the diverse range of incentives that impact our decisions and behaviour; measures build on this and look strategically across the waste hierarchy at embedding positive behaviour change.
• Data and evidence: Improvements in understandings of material flows, availability and quality of data will be crucial to achieve significant impacts across the resources and waste system.
• Infrastructure: Identifying what future strategic infrastructure requirements will be, both in Scotland as a whole and on a place-based basis for local needs, linked to National Planning Framework 4.^[23] This ranges from reuse capacity, through to local recycling, domestic reprocessing and residual waste management infrastructure. In 2025 the Scottish Government will publish a waste reprocessing infrastructure report to support this work and meet our statutory requirement, as set out in the Circular Economy Act. In order to fully understand existing capacity and provide clear and stable environment for investment, we seek to understand and address existing and planned reprocessing infrastructure in Scotland, potential gaps in capacity, key areas of economic opportunity, and any significant barriers to future growth.
• Legislative framework: In order to support the transition to a circular economy, Scotland needs the right legislative framework to make the right choices the easy choices for actors across our economy and society. The Circular Economy Act provides additional powers to underpin Scotland's transition to a circular economy.

Assessing impacts

Alongside the draft Route Map, we published high-level assessments of the potential impact on equality, socio-economic considerations, island communities, and business and regulation. We will shortly publish updates to these assessments which will provide more focus on potential impacts from specific measures where this is feasible, particularly priority actions, as well as commentary on cumulative impacts. We will work to reflect where new or existing evidence exists, including the feedback from the second consultation.

For example, within the Business and Regulatory impact assessment, following feedback from businesses and local authorities around the potential financial cost of some measures, we will provide additional indications of where potential costs may emerge related to the delivery of specific measures. While there will be some limitations and uncertainties at this stage before implementation, we recognise it is important to provide these updates to help stakeholders plan for the future and to facilitate further work with government on design.

This is the beginning of this process, rather than the end, and as we move into the implementation phase of the Route Map, the Scottish Government reiterates its commitment to work in partnership with stakeholders to assess the full impacts of specific measures as they are further defined to ensure they remain feasible, impactful and deliver value for money. For example, measures may need to consider further individual and cumulative impacts on the environment, public spending, the cost to business including small and medium-sized enterprises, consumer choice and affordability, equality, socio-economic and island communities' impacts.

We recognise that, where appropriate, individual measures set out in the Route Map may be subject to further public consultation, for example where secondary legislation is needed.

Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA)

The Environmental Assessment (Scotland) Act 2005 requires plans, programmes and strategies that are likely to have a significant impact on the environment to be assessed and for measures to avoid, prevent or reduce adverse effects to be sought, where possible, prior to implementation.

Alongside our updated draft Route Map consultation in January 2024, we published the Environmental Report prepared as part of the SEA, which contained findings on the likely environmental implications arising from the measures set out in the Route Map.^[24] The responses received to this Route Map consultation, and the findings of the SEA, have informed the final Route Map and will be reflected in the Post Adoption Statement which we will publish shortly.

Working with the UK governments

Environmental policy, including waste management, is devolved to Scotland. Through this Route Map we set out how we are taking action on policy measures that lie within devolved competence. That includes our clear commitment to seek to maintain or enhance the environmental standards in place when we left the EU and to maintain alignment with developing EU standards where possible and meaningful to do so.

However, we recognise that certain powers relating to the circular economy are reserved to the UK Government, and that the production of our products, services and materials involve supply chains that go beyond Scotland, spanning the UK, European Union, and the rest of the world.

The Scottish Government works constructively with the other UK governments on key measures. In many cases our interests are aligned, and it makes sense to work across the UK to accelerate our transition to a more circular economy. We are aware that DEFRA Ministers are establishing a Circular Economy Taskforce, which we understand will inform the development of a circular economy strategy across the UK Government during 2025.

While the strategy will be England-only in scope, Scottish Government officials are engaging with UK officials on input into the development of the strategy, recognising that there may be implications for, and opportunities to align policy with, devolved governments.

It is clear that many areas to drive more rapid progress require collaborative action with the UK government and other devolved governments. Given the immense challenges we collectively face, we need enhanced cooperation to deliver our shared ambitions, at pace, in a host of areas that would unlock circular economy and emission reduction progress across the UK's nations. This was reinforced by the Climate Change Committee's 2023 emission reduction progress report for the UK, highlighting a "lack of urgency".^[25] We will continue to call on others, including the UK Government, where we need to see further progress, especially where powers are reserved. These areas include aspects of product design and some technical standards, the role of VAT and tax to incentivise and encourage sustainable behaviours, and measures to influence global markets and reduce imported and exported emissions.

We will continue to work within the Common Frameworks to manage potential policy divergence as well as where policies can align. Should an exclusion from the post-Brexit UK Internal Market Act 2020 be required to ensure measures are effectively implemented in Scotland, we will follow the agreed Common Framework process.