Scotland's contribution to the Paris Agreement: indicative Nationally Determined Contribution

Part 2: Information to Facilitate Clarity, Transparency and Understanding of Scotland's Indicative Nationally Determined Contribution^[23]

1. Quantifiable information on the reference point (including, as appropriate, a base year)

Section

A

Nature of information

Reference year(s), base year(s), reference period(s) or other starting point(s)

As applicable to Scotland's indicative nationally determined contribution of a 2030 target of 75% emissions reduction

For carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), the reference year is 1990.

For hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) and nitrogen trifluoride (NF3) the reference year is 1995.

These reference years are consistent with those used for all of Scotland's domestic emissions reduction targets set under the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009, as amended by the Climate Change (Emissions Reduction Targets) (Scotland) Act 2019.

Section

B

Nature of information

Quantifiable information on the reference indicators, their values in the reference year(s), base year(s), reference period(s) or other starting point(s), and, as applicable, in the target year

As applicable to Scotland's indicative nationally determined contribution of a 2030 target of 75% emissions reduction

Progress against the indicative nationally determined contribution target for 2030 will be based on the same method as used for all of Scotland's statutory domestic emissions reduction targets, namely the percentage by which the net Scottish emissions account^[fn] for the target year is lower than the baseline. Methods used for measuring emissions and removals for this purpose will be based on international carbon reporting practice (as reflected in the UK national emissions inventory reported to the UNFCCC)^[24].

Annual GHG inventory updates, including technical revisions to the historic data in line with updates to international carbon reporting practice, are published on the Scottish Government website^[25]. Based on the Scottish GHG inventory for 1990-2019, reference year and expected 2030 target year emissions are estimated to be 85.1 MtCO2_e and 21.3 MtCO2_e respectively. Reference year and target year emissions for the purpose of determining whether the 2030 target has been met will be based on the 1990-2030 Scottish GHG Inventory, which is due to published in 2032.

Section

D

Nature of information

Target relative to the reference indicator, expressed numerically, for example in percentage or amount of reduction

As applicable to Scotland's indicative nationally determined contribution of a 2030 target of 75% emissions reduction

An economy-wide net reduction in Scottish GHG emissions of at least 75% by 2030, compared to 1990/95 reference year levels.

2. Time frames and/or periods for implementation

Section

A (adjusted from ICTU)

Nature of information

Time frame and/or period for implementation, including start and end date

As applicable to Scotland's indicative nationally determined contribution of a 2030 target of 75% emissions reduction

Time frame: 1 January 2021- 31 December 2030.

Section

B

Nature of information

Whether it is a single-year or multi-year target, as applicable

As applicable to Scotland's indicative nationally determined contribution of a 2030 target of 75% emissions reduction

Single-year target in 2030.

However, Scotland's climate change legislation also includes legally binding annual emissions targets for every year until the net-zero emissions target year of 2045. A full list of all of these targets can be found on the Scottish Government website^[26].

3. Scope and coverage

Section

A

Nature of information

General description of the target

As applicable to Scotland's indicative nationally determined contribution of a 2030 target of 75% emissions reduction

A 75% reduction in net Scottish GHG emissions by 2030, compared to 1990/95 reference year levels.

All of Scotland's statutory emissions reduction targets, including this 2030 target, are economy-wide and include a fair share of emissions from international aviation and shipping. Scotland's climate change legislation sets a default position that these targets will be met through domestic action alone, without the use of international offset credits.

Section

B (adjusted from ICTU)

Nature of information

Sectors, gases, categories and pools covered by the indicative nationally determined contribution, including, as applicable, consistent with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines

As applicable to Scotland's indicative nationally determined contribution of a 2030 target of 75% emissions reduction

The sectors, gases, categories and pools covered by Scotland's indicative nationally determined contribution are based on the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, the 2013 IPCC Kyoto Protocol Supplement and the 2013 IPCC Wetlands Supplement. The IPCC's 4th Assessment Report on the Global Warming Potentials for a 100-year time horizon are currently used to calculate CO2 equivalents of GHG emissions. We expect to replace AR4 GWPs with AR5 equivalents in the future, in line with international guidance.

Sectors covered

Energy (including transport); Industrial Processes and Product Use (IPPU); Agriculture; Land-use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF); and Waste management.

Gases covered

CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, SF6 and NF3.

Pools covered

All LULUCF pools are included: above ground biomass, below ground biomass, litter, deadwood soil organic carbon and stocks of harvested wood products.

Emissions factors not provided for by IPCC guidelines

Scotland's climate change legislation requires that the calculation of a fair share of international aviation emissions attributable to Scotland includes a multiplier, or radiative force factor, to reflect the direct and indirect non-carbon dioxide impacts of emissions at altitude from international aviation. In line with advice from the UK Climate Change Committee, the multiplier is currently set at 1 (i.e. having the same effect as other emissions)^[27].

Section

C (adjusted from ICTU)

Nature of information

How Scotland has taken into consideration the need to strive to include all categories of anthropogenic emissions or removals in their nationally determined contributions and, once a source, sink or activity is included, continue to include it.

As applicable to Scotland's indicative nationally determined contribution of a 2030 target of 75% emissions reduction

The measurement of Scotland's statutory emissions targets is required by domestic law to keep track with international carbon reporting practice, thereby ensuring that a comprehensive set of emissions and removals is considered. In practice this is achieved through the Scottish GHG inventory being a disaggregation of the UK national emissions inventory, which reflects up-to-date IPCC guidelines and is subject to regular scientific review from the UNFCCC.

Scotland's statutory domestic emissions reduction targets also include a fair share of emissions from international aviation and shipping activity.

4. Planning processes

Section

A (adjusted from ICTU)

Nature of information

Information on the planning processes that Scotland undertook to prepare its indicative nationally determined contribution and, if available, on Scotland's implementation plans, including, as appropriate:

Section

a(i)

Nature of information

Domestic institutional arrangements, public participation and engagement with local communities and indigenous peoples, in a gender-responsive manner

As applicable to Scotland's indicative nationally determined contribution of a 2030 target of 75% emissions reduction

Domestic institutional arrangements

The Scottish Government is the devolved government for Scotland and has a range of responsibilities, including climate change policy. The Scottish Parliament passes laws on devolved matters.

Some powers that will be vital to Scotland's achievement of its indicative nationally determined contribution and longer term net-zero transition, including fiscal and pricing elements of emissions trading, decisions on the future of the gas grid, investment in electricity network infrastructure, regulation on energy networks, vehicle standards and regulation of renewable energy investment, remain reserved to the UK Government. As such, UK Government action, in parallel to the decisions of the Scottish Government, is essential if Scotland is to meet its emissions reduction targets. The Scottish Government regularly communicates with the UK Government on areas where action is required, and works with the UK Government and devolved administrations of Wales and Northern Ireland to share best practice and research on climate change.

Delivering Scotland's climate change commitments, including this indicative nationally determined contribution, is a cross-ministerial effort led by the Cabinet Secretary for Net Zero, Energy and Transport, with the Minister for Just Transition, Employment and Fair Work, who is directly responsible for Just Transition planning and delivery, including the work of the Just Transition Commission. Key decisions on climate action are taken by the Scottish Cabinet^[28].

Scotland's approach to tackling climate change is guided by independent expert advisers, including the UK Climate Change Committee^[29] and the Scottish Just Transition Commission^[30].

Domestic Legislation

Scotland has its' own distinct framework of statutory climate change targets set under the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009, as amended by the Climate Change (Emissions Reduction Targets) (Scotland) Act 2019. This legislation includes targets for Scotland to reach net-zero GHG emissions by 2045 and interim targets of 56%, 75% and 90% reductions in emissions by 2020, 2030 and 2040 respectively, relative to a 1990/1995 baseline. Progress towards these targets also contributes to achievement of UK-wide targets.

Policy Measures

Scotland's transition to net-zero emissions sits at the heart of Scotland's National Performance Framework^[31], Programme for Government^[32], and Scottish Budget^[33].

In addition, Scotland's climate change legislation requires regular climate change plans setting out specific policies and proposals as a delivery plan for meeting the targets.

Scotland's current Climate Change Plan was first published in 2018 and updated in December 2020 to reflect the targets set in the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009, as amended by the Climate Change (Emissions Reduction Targets) (Scotland) Act 2019, as part of a green recovery from the impacts of COVID-19.

Focussed on the period up to 2032, the updated Plan includes more than 100 new policies and proposals, and also increases the ambition of more than 40 other policies, to cut greenhouse gas emissions across all sectors of the Scottish economy.

Public participation and engagement

The transformation of Scotland's society and economy to net-zero emissions can by no means be delivered by Government alone. Meeting Scotland's emissions reduction targets will only be possible as a shared national endeavour.

In Scotland, we have taken a people-centred approach to policy making for a number of years and are building on this with our new Public Engagement Strategy for climate change. Through research^[34] we have seen that public concern for climate change has risen over recent years and we are now looking to build on this by putting people and communities at the heart of our approach to a just transition to net-zero emissions.

The scale of change necessary to meet Scotland's emissions reduction targets will impact on the lives of all of Scotland's people. Scotland's independent Climate Assembly gave over one hundred people, from across Scotland, with different views and life experiences, a voice in deciding how this should happen. The citizens' assembly was tasked to consider how to prevent or minimise, or remedy or mitigate the effects of climate change; and make recommendations on measures proposed to achieve the emissions reduction targets. Assembly members ranged in age from 16 to 82 and children's voices were integrated in the assembly through work with the Children's Parliament.

Role of public bodies

The Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009 placed public bodies under a duty to contribute to the delivery of Scotland's national emissions reduction targets and adaptation programme, and to act sustainably. Under secondary legislation in 2015, around 180 listed bodies are required to report annually on compliance with these duties. These reporting bodies include local authorities, NHS bodies, Further and Higher Education Institutes, national devolved public bodies, and the Scottish Ministers which includes the Scottish Government and executive agencies. The 2015 Order was strengthened in November 2020 requiring the listed public bodies to report on, where applicable:

• the body's target date for achieving zero direct emissions of greenhouse gases, or such other targets that demonstrate how the body is contributing to Scotland achieving its emissions reduction targets; and
• targets for reducing indirect emissions of greenhouse gases.

Budgets

For each year's Scottish Budget, the Scottish Government publish an accompanying high-level carbon assessment which estimates how government spending plans will impact on emissions^[35].

Section

a(ii)

Nature of information

Contextual matters, including, inter alia, as appropriate:

Section

a(ii)a

Nature of information

National circumstances, such as geography, climate, economy, sustainable development and poverty eradication

As applicable to Scotland's indicative nationally determined contribution of a 2030 target of 75% emissions reduction

Scotland is part of the United Kingdom and occupies the northern third of Great Britain. It is home to almost 800 small islands^[36]. Summaries of Scotland's regional climate are available on the Met Office website^[37]. Scotland's population in 2019 was 5.4 million^[38]. Statistical publications relating to Scotland's economy are available on the Scottish Government website^[39].

Scotland's National Performance Framework (NPF)^[40] is Scotland's 'wellbeing framework', recognising that societal wellbeing will increase when social outcomes, environmental outcomes, economic outcomes and democratic outcomes are all being delivered and are in balance. The Scottish Government has published an assessment of the impact of COVID-19 on Scotland's wellbeing^[41].

Sustainable development and poverty eradication

• − The Scottish Government has committed to achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Scotland's National Performance Framework (NPF) is our main vehicle to deliver and localise the SDGs. The NPF shares the same aspiration for social, environmental and economic improvements, defining the country's success as more than just growth in GDP. The Scottish Government contributed to the UK Government's Voluntary National Review on the SDGs published in June 2019^[42]. In collaboration with the SDG Network Scotland and COSLA, the Scottish Government published a report in 2019 which brings together evidence, actions and stories of how we are making progress to meet the SDGs in Scotland^[43].

Scotland's statutory climate change adaptation programme is closely aligned with the UN SDGs (see Part 3), and Scotland's climate change legislation also places the Goals at the heart of the process for developing future Climate Change Plans.

Sustainable development is at the heart of the planning system in Scotland. National Planning Framework is a spatial strategy for Scotland's long term development and the Planning (Scotland) Act 2019 sets out six outcomes that the National Planning Framework should contribute towards, including: meeting greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets; and improving equality and eliminating discrimination. Preparation of the National Planning Framework must also have regard to the Scottish Climate Change Adaptation Strategy. As of September 2021, the National Planning Framework is under review and more information is available from www.transformingplanning.scot.

Section

a(ii)b (adjusted from ICTU)

Nature of information

Best practices and experience related to the preparation of Scotland's indicative nationally determined contribution

As applicable to Scotland's indicative nationally determined contribution of a 2030 target of 75% emissions reduction

The legislative proposals for Scotland's emissions reduction targets were informed by advice from the Scottish Government's statutory independent expert advisers, the UK Climate Change Committee and were subject to public consultation^[44] and extensive Parliamentary scrutiny^[45].

Whenever Scotland's statutory targets are reviewed (the Act requires this to occur at least every 5 years), this is done with reference to a set of defined criteria – one of which is the goal of not exceeding the "fair and safe" Scottish emissions budget for total emissions over the period 2010 to 2050. The level of this budget is set directly from the independent expert advice of the UK Climate Change Committee, in line with the principles set out in article 3 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, contributing appropriately to the holding of the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

Section

a(ii)c (adjusted from ICTU)

Nature of information

Other contextual aspirations and priorities acknowledged in context of the Paris Agreement

As applicable to Scotland's indicative nationally determined contribution of a 2030 target of 75% emissions reduction

Food security and policy

The Scottish Government has committed to achieving the UN SDGs, including Goal 2 on ending hunger, achieving food security and improved nutrition and promoting sustainable agriculture. The SDGs are incorporated in Scotland's National Performance Framework, ensuring that these objectives are increasingly located at the centre of policy-making and delivery.

Ocean and marine environment

The second Scottish Climate Change Adaptation Programme^[46] responds to the main climate risks for Scotland (see Part 3). One of seven outcomes relates to the marine environment and sets out actions aimed at achieving the long-term outcome that our coastal and marine environment is valued, enjoyed, protected and enhanced, and has increased resilience to climate change.

Terrestrial biodiversity

The Scottish Government is committed to delivering improved and enduring benefits to the natural environment through the Environment Strategy for Scotland^[47]. Sitting beneath this, a new Scottish Biodiversity Strategy^[48] will be prepared to take account of the new global biodiversity framework and targets to deliver the Convention on Biological Diversity's 2050 vision. The Scottish Biodiversity Programme^[49] has been created to coordinate all activity on biodiversity including the development of a future strategic framework for biodiversity in Scotland.

Education and skills

The Scottish Government's Climate Emergency Skills Action Plan^[50] sets out short and long term actions to support the skills needed for a green recovery and just transition to net-zero. Actions include establishing a new Green Jobs Workforce Academy to support existing employees, and those who are facing redundancy, to assess their existing skills and undertake the necessary upskilling and reskilling they need to secure green job opportunities as they emerge. In addition, Scotland's Curriculum for Excellence^[51], incorporates an emphasis on the cross-cutting theme of Learning for Sustainability – a term that brings together sustainable development education, global citizenship and outdoor learning. The Learning for Sustainability Action Plan^[52] will help to ensure that all children and young people in Scotland have the opportunity to experience this vital area of education.

Sustainable lifestyles and sustainable patterns of consumption and production

The Scottish Government recognises the transition to net-zero will require significant lifestyle changes. Scotland's Heat in Buildings Strategy^[53] sets out the pathway to achieving net-zero emissions from Scotland's buildings, and making them warmer, greener and more efficient, by 2045. Scotland's National Transport Strategy^[54] sets out the commitment to implement a sustainable travel hierarchy, which encourages people to make active travel and public transport choices that minimise the long term impacts on the climate and improve the lives of future generations by promoting health and wellbeing. Scotland's Making Things Last strategy^[55] sets out priorities to moving towards a more circular economy – where products and materials are kept in high value use for as long as possible.

Health and air pollution

The Scottish Government published its Cleaner Air for Scotland strategy^[56] in 2015 setting out a series of actions for improving air quality across a wide range of policy areas, including co-ordinated action for delivering co-benefits for both air pollutant and GHG reductions. Following an independent review of the strategy in 2019, which made recommendations for additional action on air pollution over the period 2021-2025^[57], a consultation on a draft new air quality strategy for Scotland took place between October 2020 and January 2021^[58]. The final strategy –'Cleaner Air for Scotland 2- Towards a Better Place for Everyone' ^[59]– was published in July 2021, setting out the air quality policy framework for the period 2021 to 2026 with a continued focus on delivery co-benefits for air pollutant and greenhouse gas reductions.

Support for developing countries

Since 2012 we have supported communities in three of our international development partner countries (Malawi, Zambia, and Rwanda) build more resilient and equitable communities through our Climate Justice Fund. The Fund adheres to Scottish Government's wider International Development Principles^[60], where embedded into the principle of 'Innovate, adapting and sustainable' is the understanding that the transition to net-zero must be just and must support increasing resilience to climate change. The International Development Principles have been adopted in other policy areas such as Health, Trade and Education, ensuring climate change is incorporated across Scotland's international work.

Section

C (adjusted from ICTU)

Nature of information

How Scotland's preparation of its indicative nationally determined contribution has been informed by the outcomes of the global stocktake, referred to in Article 4, paragraph 9, of the Paris Agreement

As applicable to Scotland's indicative nationally determined contribution of a 2030 target of 75% emissions reduction

The Scottish Government published its' response to the Talanoa Dialogue^[61] in November 2018. Since then, Scotland has raised the ambition of our national emissions targets through the Climate Change (Emissions Reduction Targets) (Scotland) Act 2019.

Scotland's end target of net-zero emissions of all greenhouse gases by 2045 is based on what the UK Climate Change Committee advises to be in line with the 'highest possible ambition' as called for by the Paris Agreement. Scotland's 2030 target of a 75% reduction, which forms the basis of this indicative nationally determined contribution, goes beyond what the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says is needed globally to prevent warming of more than 1.5°C^[62].

6. How Scotland considers that its indicative NDC is fair and ambitious in the light of its national circumstances

Section

A (adjusted from ICTU)

Nature of information

How Scotland considers that its indicative nationally determined contribution is fair and ambitious in the light of its national circumstances

As applicable to Scotland's indicative nationally determined contribution of a 2030 target of 75% emissions reduction

Scotland's 2030 target of a 75% reduction goes beyond what the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says is needed globally to prevent warming of more than 1.5°C.

Section

B

Nature of information

Fairness considerations, including reflecting on equity

As applicable to Scotland's indicative nationally determined contribution of a 2030 target of 75% emissions reduction

Scotland's climate change legislation places the principles of climate justice, just transition^[63], and the achievement of the UN Sustainable Development Goals, at the heart of the process for developing future Climate Change Plans. The legislation also sets, based solely on independent expert advice, a fair and safe emissions budget for the total level of national emissions over the period from 2010 to 2050.

Section

C (adjusted from ICTU)

Nature of information

How Scotland's target reflects Article 4, paragraph 3, of the Paris Agreement^[64]

As applicable to Scotland's indicative nationally determined contribution of a 2030 target of 75% emissions reduction

The level of Scotland's statutory 2030 emissions target, which forms the basis of this indicative nationally determined contribution, was raised through the Climate Change (Emissions Reduction Targets) (Scotland) Act 2019 beyond the equivalent level previously committed to in domestic legislation. The bringing forward of the new legislation by the Scottish Government was directly in response to the Paris Agreement.

Section

D (adjusted from ICTU)

Nature of information

How Scotland's target reflects Article 4, paragraph 4, of the Paris Agreement^[65]

As applicable to Scotland's indicative nationally determined contribution of a 2030 target of 75% emissions reduction

Scotland's indicative nationally determined contribution for 2030 is an economy-wide absolute emissions reduction target, consistent with Article 4.4 of the Paris Agreement.

7. How the indicative nationally determined contribution is consistent with efforts to achieving the objective set out in Article 2 of the UNFCCC

Section

A (adjusted from ICTU)

Nature of information

How Scotland's indicative nationally determined contribution is consistent with efforts to achieving the objective of Article 2 of the UNFCCC^[66]

As applicable to Scotland's indicative nationally determined contribution of a 2030 target of 75% emissions reduction

Scotland's statutory emissions reduction targets, including the 75% target for 2030 which forms the basis of this indicative nationally determined contribution and the net-zero target date of 2045 at the latest, represents Scotland's contribution to the international objective of stabilising GHG concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.

Scotland's climate change legislation also sets, based solely on independent expert advice, a fair and safe emissions budget for the total level of national emissions over the period from 2010 to 2050.

Section

B (adjusted from ICTU)

Nature of information

How Scotland's indicative nationally determined contribution is consistent with Article 2, paragraph 1(a), and Article 4, paragraph 1, of the Paris Agreement^[67]

As applicable to Scotland's indicative nationally determined contribution of a 2030 target of 75% emissions reduction

The 75% level of Scotland's statutory emissions reduction target for 2030, which forms the basis of this indicatively determined contribution, goes beyond what the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says is needed globally to prevent warming of more than 1.5°C.

On the basis used for reporting progress to statutory targets, Scotland is already well past peak emissions. Scotland has set a statutory target to reach net-zero emissions by 2045 at the latest.